James Madison at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview

James Madison Dukes vs Air Force Falcons

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Air Force -2.5 (44.5) (135) Open: -3.0 | 41.0
Air Force 31 - James Madison: 21 (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

Dukes (11 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (44 - 8)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: James Madison -6 (SP+ JMU -8)
Projected Score: JMU: 28 - AFA: 22 (51)
AFA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
JMU Travel: 1110 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
JMU Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

James Madison's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	James Madison vs Bucknell	-47.0	53.5	W 38 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	James Madison at Virginia	-6.0	40.0	W 36 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/16	James Madison at Troy	+2.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/23	James Madison at Utah State	-5.5	53.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/30	James Madison vs South Alabama	-1.0	48.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	James Madison vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Thu 10/19	James Madison at Marshall	-5.0	49.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/28	James Madison vs Old Dominion	-19.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/4	James Madison at Georgia State	-6.0	53.0	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/11	James Madison vs UConn	-24.5	47.5	W 44 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/18	James Madison vs App State	-10.0	56.5	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	James Madison at Coastal Carolina	-9.5	50.5	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/23	James Madison vs Air Force	+2.5	44.5	L 21 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JMU	.21	46%	37.1	45%	3.26	187	48%	265	4.4	.04	29%	18.4	27%	32%	3.53	39.9	1.8	2.8
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JMU Offense	11	37.1	34.1	45.8%	4.4	1.8	23	452	187	265	4.3	54%	44%	45%	48%	16%	.21
AFA Defense	13	30.3	27.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JMU Defense	11	18.4	21.7	29.4%	3.53	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	27%	32%	25%	.04
AFA Offense	13	29.8	27.5	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
James Madison	11	33:38	22.6	40%	45%	5.1	39.9	1.8	2.8	8.7	3.5	2	33.1
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JMU Offense	11	54%	45%	43.5	187.2	4.3	24	.09	3.26	72%	10%	0.88
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JMU Defense	11	45%	27%	-	-	-	-	-.07	2.06	58%	17%	1.19
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JMU Offense	11	44%	48%	18.2	29.7	265.3	8.9	14.6	27	10	.44	1.6	30%	34%	.37	6%	2
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JMU Defense	11	54%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.17	1.9	41%	23%	.25	8%	2.4
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 3.26 #48
James Madison's Offense Rating: 17.90 #55
James Madison's Defense Rating: -1.23 #4
2023 Talent Rating: 196.53 #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
James Madison's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
James Madison's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #18
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #19
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 3.26 Air Force: 2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 13.3 Air Force: 5.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
James Madison 28
Air Force 22

Projected Total Points: 51

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Air Force	31	James Madison	21	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	44.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	1	1	1 Overs
James Madison	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

James Madison Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Forces Bowl	James Madison vs Air Force	+2.5	44.5	L 21 - 31

Air Force Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21
2022	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15
2021	Responder Bowl	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28
2019	It Bowl	Air Force vs Washington State	-3.0	73.0	W 31 - 21

(#48) JMU at (#69) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JMU	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#48	#69
SP+SP+	#18	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#23	#9
OffenseOff	#46	#7
DefenseDef	#14	#19
Spec TeamsST	#17	#38
TalentTal	#139	#130
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

James Madison Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

James Madison on Offense


CategoryCat	JMU Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#55	#34
SP+SP+	#19	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

James Madison Run Game


CategoryCat	JMU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#110	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#69	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

James Madison Pass Game


CategoryCat	JMU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	JMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#14
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#4
SP+SP+	#76	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	JMU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#84

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	JMU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#14
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -2.5 (44.5)
Air Force won vs James Madison this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat James Madison in 2023 (31-21)

JMU's OC Mike Shanahan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	282	413	68%	3670	35	10	8.9
Alonza Barnett	3	11	27%	15	0	1	1.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaelon Black	142	637	1	4.5	57
Ty Son Lawton	126	568	5	4.5	28
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	96	276	8	2.9	47
Latrele Palmer	32	119	1	3.7	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Sarratt	82	1191	8	14.5	48
Reggie Brown	53	1054	9	19.9	80
Phoenix Sproles	52	442	5	8.5	32
Zach Horton	27	275	6	10.2	66

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Bryant Haines (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Fisher	107	5	2	5	6
Jailin Walker	61	6	2	1	4
Jamree Kromah	58	20	9	4	0
Jacob Thomas	54	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Green	50	22	16	7	1
Jamree Kromah	58	20	9	4	0
Mikail Kamara	51	19	8	5	2
James Carpenter	53	10	4	7	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Ponds	51	2	0	0	11
Aiden Fisher	107	5	2	5	6
Jacob Thomas	54	1	0	0	6

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4