James Madison at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview

James Madison Dukes vs Air Force Falcons

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Air Force -2.5 (44.5) (135) Open: -3.0 | 41.0
Air Force 31 - James Madison: 21 (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

Dukes (11 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (44 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
Wind: 13.9 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: James Madison -6 (SP+ JMU -8)
Projected Score: JMU: 26 - AFA: 20 (48)
AFA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
JMU Travel: 1396 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
JMU Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

James Madison's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	James Madison vs Bucknell	-47.0	53.5	W 38 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	James Madison at Virginia	-6.0	40.0	W 36 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/16	James Madison at Troy	+2.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/23	James Madison at Utah State	-5.5	53.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/30	James Madison vs South Alabama	-1.0	48.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	James Madison vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Thu 10/19	James Madison at Marshall	-5.0	49.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/28	James Madison vs Old Dominion	-19.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/4	James Madison at Georgia State	-6.0	53.0	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/11	James Madison vs UConn	-24.5	47.5	W 44 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/18	James Madison vs App State	-10.0	56.5	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	James Madison at Coastal Carolina	-9.5	50.5	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/23	James Madison vs Air Force	+2.5	44.5	L 21 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JMU	.21	46%	33.3	45%	3.26	187	48%	265	4.4	.04	29%	20.5	27%	32%	3.53	39.9	1.8	2.8
AFA	.3	49%	18.9	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	23.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JMU Offense	11	33.3	31.3	45.8%	4.4	1.8	23	452	187	265	4.3	54%	44%	45%	48%	16%	.21
AFA Defense	13	23.3	17.7	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JMU Defense	11	20.5	28.7	29.4%	3.53	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	27%	32%	25%	.04
AFA Offense	13	18.9	18.7	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
James Madison	11	33:38	22.6	40%	45%	5.1	39.9	1.8	2.8	8.7	3.5	2	33.1
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JMU Offense	11	54%	45%	43.5	187.2	4.3	24	.09	3.26	72%	10%	0.88
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JMU Defense	11	45%	27%	-	-	-	-	-.07	2.06	58%	17%	1.19
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JMU Offense	11	44%	48%	18.2	29.7	265.3	8.9	14.6	27	10	.44	1.6	30%	34%	.37	6%	2
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JMU Defense	11	54%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.17	1.9	41%	23%	.25	8%	2.4
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 3.26 #48
James Madison's Offense Rating: 17.90 #55
James Madison's Defense Rating: -1.23 #4
2023 Talent Rating: 98.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
James Madison's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
James Madison's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #18
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #19
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 3.26 Air Force: 2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 13.3 Air Force: 5.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

James Madison Scoring
Offense: 33.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.7

James Madison's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
James Madison 26
Air Force 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Air Force	31	James Madison	21	Air Force	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	44.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	1	1	1 Overs
James Madison	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

James Madison Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Forces Bowl	James Madison vs Air Force	+2.5	44.5	L 21 - 31

Air Force Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21
2022	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15
2021	Responder Bowl	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28
2019	It Bowl	Air Force vs Washington State	-3.0	73.0	W 31 - 21

(#48) James Madison Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.26 #48
Offense Rating: 17.90 #55
Defense Rating: -1.23 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #18
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37
Talent Rating: 98.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile

,
,

James Madison has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (1 - 1)
James Madison has played in 2 Bowls since 2000 (1 - 1)

James Madison Ratings Matchup Air Force

Power #48

#69

Off #55

#34

Def #4

#34

Talent #132

#43

SP+ #18

#45

SP+ Off #19

#76

SP+ Def #37

#29

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -2.5 (44.5)
Air Force won vs James Madison this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat James Madison in 2023 (31-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 62° - Wind: 14 mph
Rain: 0.008

Team Information
Injuries: JMU | AFA
Depth Chart: JMU | AFA
Rosters: JMU | AFA

(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Team Profile

,
,

Air Force has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 0)
Air Force has played in 15 Bowls since 2000 (9 - 6)

James Madison's OC Mike Shanahan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
Taji Hudson (Tr)	1	1	100%	23	0	0	23.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ty Son Lawton	141	668	12	4.7	29
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42
Kaelon Black	46	251	2	5.5	21
Sammy Malignaggi	42	138	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Sarratt	53	957	8	18.1	84
Omarion Dollison	37	633	6	17.1	73
Taylor Thompson	33	448	6	13.6	36
Zach Horton	21	189	4	9.0	18

View James Madison's Full Roster

James Madison's DC Bryant Haines

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Fisher	118	6	2	3	4
Jailin Walker	82	10	2	5	8
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9
Brent Austin	48	0	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mikail Kamara	46	14	9	6	1
James Carpenter	37	11	5	5	2
Tyrique Tucker	24	5	3	4	1
Jailin Walker	82	10	2	5	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brent Austin	48	0	0	0	10
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9
Jailin Walker	82	10	2	5	8

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Brandon Engel	2	2	100%	81	0	0	40.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Busha	78	172	1	2.2	12
Aiden Calvert	18	91	2	5.1	37
Cameron Breier	2	12	0	6.0	7
Darius Stone	3	7	0	2.3	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	5	109	21.8	52
Brandon Engel	3	31	10.3	14
Aiden Calvert	1	21	21.0	21

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0
James Tomasi	20	2	1	1	0
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1