James Madison at Air Force - 2023 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo James Madison Dukes vs Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Air Force -2.5 (44.5) (135)  Open: -3.0 | 41.0
Air Force 31 - James Madison: 21  (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

 
Dukes (11 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (44 - 8)
Avg Score : 34 - 20 (36 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: James Madison -6   (SP+ JMU -8)

Projected Score: JMU: 28 - AFA: 22 (49)
AFA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
JMU Travel: 1396 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 James Madison vs Bucknell-47.053.5W 38 - 3UN
Sat 9/9 James Madison at Virginia-6.040.0W 36 - 35ON
Sat 9/16 James Madison at Troy+2.546.5W 16 - 14UY
Sat 9/23 James Madison at Utah State-5.553.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/30 James Madison vs South Alabama-1.048.5W 31 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-5.560.0W 41 - 13UY
Thu 10/19 James Madison at Marshall-5.049.0W 20 - 9UY
Sat 10/28 James Madison vs Old Dominion-19.548.0W 30 - 27ON
Sat 11/4 James Madison at Georgia State-6.053.0W 42 - 14OY
Sat 11/11 James Madison vs UConn-24.547.5W 44 - 6OY
Sat 11/18 James Madison vs App State-10.056.5L 23 - 26UN
Sat 11/25 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-9.550.5W 56 - 14OY
Sat 12/23 James Madison vs Air Force+2.544.5L 21 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.051.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.536.5W 13 - 3UN
Fri 9/15 Air Force vs Utah State-9.045.5W 39 - 21OY
Fri 9/22 Air Force at San José State-6.045.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Air Force vs San Diego State-10.543.5W 49 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Air Force vs Wyoming-12.542.0W 34 - 27ON
Sat 10/21 Air Force at Navy-11.034.0W 17 - 6UN
Sat 10/28 Air Force at Colorado State-14.547.0W 30 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Air Force vs Army-18.532.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 11/11 Air Force at Hawai'i-22.547.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Air Force vs UNLV-2.546.5L 27 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Air Force at Boise State+6.544.5L 19 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#44 (.24)46% (27)34.140% (102)2.75 (121)13352% (7)2863.92 (64)#14 (.09)33% (4)19.529% (1)37% (19)2.86 (9)40.11.21.6
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)27.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)18.237% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)47% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)34% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1334.135.845.6%3.921.2214191332863.947%52%40%52%17%.24
AFA Defense1318.219.239.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1319.520.733.2%2.861.6 - - - - - 42%57%29%37%24%.09
AFA Offense1327.838.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1331:1521.237%50%5.540.11.21.68.53.4333.4
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1347% (94)40% (102)34.2133.23.917 (81).03 (121)2.75 (121)57% (131)10% (69)0.89 (114)
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1342% (6)29% (1) - - - - -.04 (8)2.18 (1)61% (10)15% (2)1.13 (117)
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1352% (43)52% (7)22.233285.88.712.936 (5)11 (68).48 (13)1.5 (90)29% (25)33% (51).38 (51)7% (98)2 (74)
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1357% (127)37% (19) - - - - - - 13 (26).24 (51)1.7 (115)38% (5)27% (24).28 (48)9% (4)2.1 (77)
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 3.26 #48
James Madison's Offense Rating: 17.90 #55
James Madison's Defense Rating: -1.23 #4
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
James Madison's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
James Madison's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #18
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #19
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 3.26   Air Force: 2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 13.3   Air Force: 5.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 35.8
Defense: 19.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

James Madison's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
James Madison 28
Air Force 22


Total Points: 49

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 18.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/23Air Force31James Madison21Air ForceAir Force -2.5Air Force44.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force111 Overs
James Madison000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

James Madison Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Forces Bowl James Madison vs Air Force+2.544.5L 21 - 31
Air Force Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Forces Bowl Air Force vs James Madison-2.544.5W 31 - 21
2022Forces Bowl Air Force vs Baylor+3.542.0W 30 - 15
2021Responder Bowl Air Force vs Louisville-1.055.0W 31 - 28
2019It Bowl Air Force vs Washington State-3.073.0W 31 - 21
  
(#48) James Madison Info
Power Rating: 3.26 #48
Offense Rating: 17.90 #55
Defense Rating: -1.23 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #18
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80


James Madison has played in 2 Bowls in the last 5 years (1 - 1)
James Madison has played in 2 Bowls since 2000 (1 - 1)

James Madison Highlights
James Madison is Undefeated away from Home
James Madison is Undefeated vs Spread as Underdogs Away from Home

James Madison offense is efficent (#68)
James Madison Defense Sacks the QB a lot

James Madison has a really good defense (#2)
James Madison defense is really good in red zone (#25)
James Madison has a good run defense (#5)
James Madison has a good pass defense (#5)
James Madison Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#2)
James Madison Defensive Line is very good (#3)
James Madison Front 7 is disruptive (#35)
James Madison Secondary is very good (#2)
James Madison defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

James Madison Deficiencies
James Madison Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#66)
James Madison run game is really bad (#46)
James Madison gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#119)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFAJMU
OverallOver#7#18
OffenseOff#7#43
DefenseDef#15#11
Special TeamsST#33#17
PassingPass#59#24
RushingRush#46#79
Run BlockRBLK#1#54
Pass BlockPBLK#58#84
Route RunningWR Rt#36#18
TacklingTkl#7#74
Run DefenseR Def#20#17
Pass Rush DefPRush#25#13
Coverage DefCov#37#19

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -2.5 (44.5)
Air Force won vs James Madison this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat James Madison in 2023 (31-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: JMU | AFA
Depth Chart: JMU | AFA
Rosters: JMU | AFA
(#69) Air Force Info
Power Rating: 2.21 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70


Air Force has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 0)
Air Force has played in 15 Bowls since 2000 (9 - 6)

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force has a good run defense (#76)
Air Force Defensive Line is very good (#123)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)


  
James Madison's OC Mike Shanahan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)28241368%367035108.9
Alonza Barnett31127%15011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaelon Black14263714.557
Ty Son Lawton12656854.528
Jordan McCloud (Tr)9627682.947
Latrele Palmer3211913.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Sarratt821191814.548
Reggie Brown531054919.980
Phoenix Sproles5244258.532
Zach Horton27275610.266

View James Madison's Full Roster
James Madison's DC Bryant Haines
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aiden Fisher1075256
Jailin Walker616214
Jamree Kromah5820940
Jacob Thomas541006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Green50221671
Jamree Kromah5820940
Mikail Kamara5119852
James Carpenter5310473
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Ponds5120011
Aiden Fisher1075256
Jacob Thomas541006

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zachary Larrier406760%7897211.8
John Busha91947%152018.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Michel200935114.754
Zachary Larrier14260564.341
John Lee Eldridge III8459967.165
Dylan Carson6849327.368
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Roznos12374331.284
Cade Harris5179135.865
Brandon Engel10178017.839
Dane Kinamon5126225.294

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Mock935221
Johnathan Youngblood854031
Trey Taylor745104
Jayden Goodwin732105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bo Richter45201081
PJ Ramsey3512852
Peyton Zdroik327520
Alec Mock935221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy352005
Jayden Goodwin732105
Trey Taylor745104