James Madison at Liberty - 2025 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo   James Madison Dukes at Liberty Flames  Liberty logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
James Madison -7.5 (46.5) (-298)  Open: -10.5
James Madison 31 - Liberty: 13

 
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
JMU coming off BYE
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: James Madison -12  (SP+ JMU -21.5)

Projected Score: JMU: 31 - LIB: 19 (51)
JMU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
JMU Travel: 76 miles
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)37.147% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)18.434% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)25.654% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)26.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1337.134.143.6%3.930.7214101942164.952%48%47%40%14%.16
LIB Defense1226.527.339.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1318.421.733.9%3.642.5 - - - - - 46%54%34%34%20%.03
LIB Offense1225.631.549.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1331:4520.841%40%754.80.72.57.13.2632.9
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1352% (54)47% (29)39.8193.74.920 (67).17 (45)3.28 (30)72% (82)10% (61)0.98 (58)
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1346% (19)34% (5) - - - - (14)2.46 (5)65% (26)13% (15)1.07 (106)
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1348% (79)40% (87)17.829.3215.97.412.228 (15)4 (1).18 (99)1.5 (103)31% (61)29% (95).26 (95)4% (18)2.1 (38)
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1354% (116)34% (3) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (10)1.8 (118)40% (1)26% (18).16 (11)7% (24)2.3 (125)
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 1.73  #59
James Madison's Offense Rating: 13.81  #63
James Madison's Defense Rating: 12.08  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3  #27
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #18
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 1.73   Liberty: -5.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 12.3   Liberty: -9.0




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -5.07  #82
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75  #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
James Madison 31
Liberty 19


Projected Total Points: 51
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Liberty13James Madison31James Madison -7.5James Madison46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty000 Overs
James Madison111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#59) JMU at (#82) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJMULIB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #82
SP+SP+ #27 #102
Perf GradeGrade #10 #69
OffenseOff #32 #58
DefenseDef #9 #79
Spec TeamsST #50 #104
TalentTal #120 #93
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #88
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLIB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #32 #79
SuccessSuc #61 #39
ExplosiveExp #104 #67
PPAPPA #88 #24
PowerPwr #63 #88
SP+SP+ #18 #103
Pts POPPO #66 #58
HavocHav #35 #71
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #8 #93
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #30
Run ExplRExp #58 #68
PPAExp #45 #20
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #30 #21
Stuff RateStuff #33 #28
TackleTak -  #76
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #96 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #87 #66
Pass ExplPExl #103 #77
PPAExp #99 #51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #89
F7 HavocF7 #61 #59
DB HavocDB #18 #82
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffJMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #9
SuccessSuc #7 #1
ExplosiveExp #131 #125
PPAPPA #24 #4
PowerPwr #88 #56
SP+SP+ #86 #39
Pts POPPO #43 #53
HavocHav #33 #8
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #75 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #5
Run ExplRExp #94 #106
PPAExp #16 #14
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #5
Stuff RateStuff #9 #9
TackleTak -  #20
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #109 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #3
Pass ExplPExl #104 #118
PPAExp #56 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #95 #19
F7 HavocF7 #43 #15
DB HavocDB #36 #24
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
James Madison 7.5 (46.5)
James Madison won at Liberty this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Liberty last year (31-13)

  
JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015