East Carolina at Florida Atlantic - 2025 Matchup Preview
East Carolina logo   East Carolina Pirates at Florida Atlantic Owls  Florida Atlantic logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -6.5 (66.5) (-250)  Open: -6.5 | 66.5
East Carolina 42 - Florida Atlantic: 3  (American Athletic)

 
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
ECU 2nd straight Road Game
FAU 2nd straight Home Game
FAU is playing their 4th straight game
ECU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: East Carolina -13  (SP+ ECU -16.5)

Projected Score: ECU: 38 - FAU: 25 (64)
ECU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
ECU Travel: 657 miles
Owls (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Zach Kittley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 36 (37 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.557.5L 7 - 39UN
Sat 9/6 Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.051.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.056.5L 28 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.062.5L 26 - 55ON
Sat 10/4 Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.554.5W 27 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.566.5W 53 - 33OY
Sat 10/18 Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.572.5L 13 - 48UN
Sat 10/25 Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.563.5L 32 - 42OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.560.5W 40 - 21OY
Sat 11/15 Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.560.5L 24 - 35UY
Sat 11/22 Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.064.0L 45 - 48OY
Sat 11/29 Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.566.5L 3 - 42UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)32.744% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)20.137% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6
FAU#80 (.17)39% (108)29.540% (107)3.15 (48)18939% (99)2093.19 (122)#90 (.21)41% (54)36.343% (72)38% (39)3.72 (62)51.61.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Offense1332.730.843.3%3.792.2204001472534.452%48%44%43%15%.22
FAU Defense1236.335.540.6%3.721.6 - - - - - 52%47%43%38%16%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Defense1320.120.839.5%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%37%43%16%.16
FAU Offense1229.537.239.2%3.191.520398189209554%45%40%39%17%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
East Carolina1323:0820.142%53%7.3612.21.66.51.3430.4
Florida Atlantic1230:2219.535%47%6.651.61.51.65.71.4128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Offense1352% (63)44% (71)33.2147.34.420 (67).17 (47)3.07 (57)79% (27)8% (42)1.02 (48)
FAU Defense1252% (86)43% (72) - - - - .16 (87)3.09 (86)83% (124)10% (65)1.05 (97)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Defense1354% (109)37% (11) - - - - .03 (22)2.57 (14)57% (3)11% (48)1.02 (84)
FAU Offense1254% (41)40% (107)38189.2524 (45).2 (34)3.15 (48)64% (118)12% (113)1.28 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Offense1348% (72)43% (54)18.530.7252.78.213.726 (26)21 (134).28 (54)1.7 (24)30% (37)34% (33).51 (8)7% (92)2.3 (7)
FAU Defense1247% (45)38% (39) - - - - - - 11 (52).28 (94)1.8 (129)34% (33)32% (88).35 (91)6% (52)2.2 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Defense1346% (28)43% (86) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (105)1.7 (98)33% (51)35% (117).46 (122)5% (104)2.1 (78)
FAU Offense1245% (98)39% (99)17.129.2208.67.212.214 (108)11 (72).19 (96)1.6 (51)33% (105)32% (65).39 (46)5% (37)2.1 (43)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -1.04  #70
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.81  #58
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 15.85  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.0  #38
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.04   Florida Atlantic: -9.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: 8.0   Florida Atlantic: -8.7




Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -9.46  #121
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 7.75  #102
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 22.97  #127
2025 Talent Rating: 658.00  #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #98
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #64
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #131

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 38
Florida Atlantic 25


Projected Total Points: 64
Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.2
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.5

Florida Atlantic's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Florida Atlantic3East Carolina42East Carolina -6.5East Carolina66.5Under
202411/07East Carolina49Florida Atlantic14East Carolina -5.5East Carolina58.5Over
202311/11Florida Atlantic7East Carolina22Florida Atlantic -7.5East Carolina44.5Under
201309/05East Carolina31Florida Atlantic13East Carolina -15East Carolina0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida Atlantic001 Overs
East Carolina442 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 22 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 22 - 21 - 01 - 2

(#70) ECU at (#121) FAU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatECUFAU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #70 #121
SP+SP+ #38 #98
Perf GradeGrade #69 #106
OffenseOff #67 #87
DefenseDef #66 #114
Spec TeamsST #69 #73
TalentTal #78 #83
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
Florida Atlantic Notes
(10/12) 2 straight W's, QB Veltkamp heating up
(9/24) Fastest Off in CFB, snap every 18 seconds
(9/24) Off TOs a huge issue, Success #'s both sides bad
(9/24) Def is awful and hasn't played good Off either
(9/24) Most pass heavy offense, throwing 50 times a game
(8/30) Vetkamp 4 Int vs MD? Run Off awful. Woof
(6/5) Over bet watch, unless Def portals hit big
(6/5) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds. Messer (WKU) good
(6/5) OL complete rebuild. Least exp'd line in CFB
(6/5) OL 1/5 back, 3 PT players, 4 portals. Looks bad
(6/5) 20 portal adds on Def, 9 DL, 9 DBs. Bad LY
(5/17) Kittley Air Raid offense lead by Veltkamp, fun
Florida Atlantic Injury Report
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffFAU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #67 #114
SuccessSuc #62 #54
ExplosiveExp #18 #117
PPAPPA #49 #90
PowerPwr #58 #127
SP+SP+ #33 #131
Pts POPPO #83 #62
HavocHav #50 #61
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffFAU Def
Run GameRun #37 #105
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #72
Run ExplRExp #48 #97
PPAExp #47 #87
Run BlockR Blk #124 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #86
Stuff RateStuff #65 #79
TackleTak -  #69
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffFAU Def
Pass GamePass #18 #118
Pass SuccessPSuc #54 #39
Pass ExplPExl #24 #129
PPAExp #54 #94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #101 #72
F7 HavocF7 #42 #65
DB HavocDB #92 #52
Florida Atlantic on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatFAU OffECU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #87 #66
SuccessSuc #108 #40
ExplosiveExp #5 #100
PPAPPA #80 #64
PowerPwr #102 #87
SP+SP+ #64 #51
Pts POPPO #122 #76
HavocHav #89 #69
Florida Atlantic Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
FAU OffECU Def
Run GameRun #125 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #11
Run ExplRExp #2 #84
PPAExp #34 #22
Run BlockR Blk #125 -
OL YdsOLY #48 #14
Stuff RateStuff #66 #11
TackleTak -  #127
Florida Atlantic Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatFAU OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #46 #57
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #86
Pass ExplPExl #51 #98
PPAExp #96 #105
Pass Block/RushP Blk #41 #90
F7 HavocF7 #113 #48
DB HavocDB #37 #104
Program Comparison
FAU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
East Carolina 6.5 (66.5)
East Carolina won at Florida Atlantic this year (42-3)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic last year (42-3)
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic in 2024 (49-14)
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic in 2023 (22-7)

  
ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson267530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004

FAU's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp (Tr)34551467%365224177.1
Zach Gibson (Tr)315359%323336.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gemari Sands10546504.437
Kaden Shields-Dutton8346065.550
Xavier Terrell5416113.014
Easton Messer (Tr)351117.039
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Easton Messer (Tr)1001029610.355
Asaad Waseem (Tr)69726510.544
Jayshon Platt46720515.748
Dom Henry40575414.490

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Brett Dewhurst (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Stolsky (Tr)862112
Leon Hart Jr. (Tr)835201
Dillion Williams (Tr)622003
Christopher Keys471001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshaun Batiste (Tr)234430
Josh Roberts225320
Wilky Denaud295300
Cecil Doggette Jr.247320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terez Reid (Tr)424008
Damarius McGhee (Tr)300004
Jayden Sweeney (Tr)412034