Tulsa at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Thursday, October 16th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
East Carolina -16.5 (54.5) (-750)  Open: -15.5
East Carolina 41 - Tulsa: 27  (American Athletic)

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
TLSA coming off BYE
Our Line: East Carolina -20  (SP+ ECU -19)

Projected Score: TLSA: 16 - ECU: 36 (51)
ECU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
TLSA Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs behind
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.554.5W 19 - 12UY
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+14.552.5L 14 - 31UN
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+21.054.5L 7 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+16.554.5L 27 - 41OY
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+4.552.5L 37 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.560.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.550.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+10.043.5W 26 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-9.056.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#104 (.11)40% (97)23.242% (86)2.87 (81)17638% (104)2233.34 (104)#61 (.15)43% (82)28.942% (64)44% (99)3.78 (77)38.21.60.9
ECU#34 (.22)46% (25)32.745% (51)3.04 (53)17149% (14)2593.76 (63)#35 (.09)38% (29)20.138% (20)39% (44)3.05 (21)58.411.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)35% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)38% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.21940.4%3.341.6223991762234.451%47%42%38%17%.11
ECU Defense1320.119.838.3%3.051.5 - - - - - 46%52%38%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1228.930.742.5%3.780.9 - - - - - 56%43%42%44%13%.15
ECU Offense1332.736.246.5%3.761224301712594.352%46%45%49%13%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1228:3322.238%57%5.138.21.60.95.31.9027.4
East Carolina1326:1522.550%45%6.858.411.57.22131.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1251% (57)42% (86)40.41764.418 (107).05 (102)2.87 (81)60% (127)11% (112)1.03 (47)
ECU Defense1346% (28)38% (20) - - - - .02 (25)2.5 (12)49% (1)14% (5)1.09 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1256% (127)42% (64) - - - - .06 (48)2.92 (76)67% (36)9% (99)0.94 (58)
ECU Offense1352% (44)45% (51)39.8170.84.331 (30).12 (67)3.04 (53)69% (93)8% (32)0.84 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1247% (82)38% (104)20.134.1222.56.511.115 (86)10 (108).15 (114)1.5 (104)32% (79)28% (88).26 (88)6% (78)1.9 (105)
ECU Defense1352% (114)39% (44) - - - - - - 9 (100).17 (36)1.4 (24)36% (13)28% (48).18 (26)6% (81)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1243% (14)44% (99) - - - - - - 7 (55).28 (86)1.5 (53)29% (115)31% (91).28 (67)4% (131)1.8 (15)
ECU Offense1346% (90)49% (14)21.332.5259.1812.220 (61)6 (34).37 (32)1.5 (72)26% (11)37% (12).49 (13)5% (30)1.8 (115)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -5.71  #90
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 2.30  #113
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 8.01  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2  #110
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #108
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -5.71   East Carolina: 11.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -11.2   East Carolina: 8.1




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 11.73  #40
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.08  #40
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.72  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1  #40
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 36
Tulsa 16


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 27
Tulsa 16

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 32
Tulsa 21

Total Points: 53
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/16East Carolina41Tulsa27East Carolina -16.5Tulsa54.5Over
202411/14Tulsa31East Carolina38East Carolina -16Tulsa63.5Over
202311/25East Carolina27Tulsa29East Carolina -4.5Tulsa44.5Over
202010/30Tulsa34East Carolina30Tulsa -17East Carolina59.5Over
201911/30East Carolina24Tulsa49Tulsa -7Tulsa64.0Over
201611/05Tulsa45East Carolina24Tulsa -10Tulsa76.5Under
201510/17East Carolina30Tulsa17East Carolina -11East Carolina77.0Under
201411/28Tulsa32East Carolina49East Carolina -17.5Tulsa0
201311/09East Carolina58Tulsa24East Carolina -14East Carolina0
201009/05East Carolina51Tulsa49
200911/15Tulsa17East Carolina44
200812/06Tulsa24East Carolina27
200610/14East Carolina10Tulsa31
200511/12Tulsa45East Carolina13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina835 Overs
Tulsa662 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 75 - 43 - 32 - 1
Road Teams7 - 74 - 51 - 23 - 3

(#90) TLSA at (#40) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTLSAECU
Power RatePwr #90 #40
SP+SP+ #110 #40
Perf GradeGrade #57 #73
OffenseOff #99 #61
DefenseDef #16 #87
Spec TeamsST #71 #78
TalentTal #87 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Tulsa Notes
(11/22) Great fight & finish beating Oregon St & Army
(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Perf GradePerf #99 #87
SuccessSuc #97 #29
ExplosiveExp #60 #88
PPAPPA #104 #35
PowerPwr #113 #45
SP+SP+ #108 #53
Pts POPPO #104 #21
HavocHav #104 #13
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Run GameRun #37 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #20
Run ExplRExp #47 #121
PPAExp #102 #25
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #81 #12
Stuff RateStuff #125 #3
TackleTak -  #133
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #112 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #44
Pass ExplPExl #104 #24
PPAExp #114 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #92
F7 HavocF7 #112 #5
DB HavocDB #78 #81
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffTLSA Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #16
SuccessSuc #25 #82
ExplosiveExp #108 #41
PPAPPA #34 #61
PowerPwr #40 #69
SP+SP+ #33 #107
Pts POPPO #63 #77
HavocHav #27 #121
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #34 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #64
Run ExplRExp #121 #58
PPAExp #67 #48
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #53 #76
Stuff RateStuff #14 #79
TackleTak -  #4
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #18 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #99
Pass ExplPExl #72 #53
PPAExp #32 #86
Pass Block/RushP Blk #105 #37
F7 HavocF7 #32 #99
DB HavocDB #30 #131
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 8
East Carolina -16.5 (54.5)
East Carolina won vs Tulsa this year (41-27)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Tulsa last year (38-31)
Tulsa beat East Carolina in 2023 (29-27)

  
TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)18631659%21591266.8
Kirk Francis538860%493345.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)212106555.057
Ajay Allen (Tr)9749755.140
Braylin Presley3221516.728
Baylor Hayes (Tr)9518832.024
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Zion Booker (Tr)4641829.140
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Zion Steptoe21272013.042

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)1287242
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)2810711
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)147511
Ty Cooper (Tr)257311
Nahki Johnson (Tr)277300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Dameon Wilson548121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson257530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004