BYU at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo BYU Cougars at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
BYU -7.5 (49.5) (-305)  Open: -9.5
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium - Greenville, NC

 
Cougars (2 - 0) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 48 - 2 (48 - 2 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
BYU coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: BYU -9   (SP+ BYU -12)

Projected Score: BYU: 30 - ECU: 21 (50)
BYU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs behind
Pirates (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 9 (56 - 3 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-7.549.5
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-7
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-8.5
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-1.5
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+5
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU+2.5
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati+3
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-9

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+7.549.5
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-10.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+5.5
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-15.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-0.5
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-21
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis+11
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA+1
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-7.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#38 (.32)47% (45)4850% (40)3.66 (18)31343% (74)1574.5 (46)#2 (-.2)24% (3)1.517% (2)30% (18)0.75 (1)450.52
ECU#53 (.24)43% (73)3730% (132)2.2 (126)13553% (23)3464.04 (66)#44 (.06)35% (34)936% (44)34% (39)2.22 (20)73.30.32.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense2484846.7%4.50.523469313157756%44%50%43%8%.32
ECU Defense39334.9%2.222.7 - - - - - 41%59%36%34%25%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense21.51.524.2%0.752 - - - - - 47%53%17%30%24%-.2
ECU Offense3375642.9%4.040.3254821353463.542%58%30%53%10%.24

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU234:392346%67%4.5450.528.52.5035.8
East Carolina329:5024.757%25%8.773.30.32.79.32.7036.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense256% (41)50% (40)44.5312.577 (38).48 (4)3.66 (18)100% (1)6% (23)1.33 (16)
ECU Defense341% (15)36% (44) - - - - .03 (57)2.1 (15)60% (34)18% (3)1.14 (103)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense247% (45)17% (2) - - - - -.32 (2)0.35 (1)100% (127)21% (2)0.64 (8)
ECU Offense342% (116)30% (132)38.3135.33.59 (17)-.08 (127)2.2 (126)50% (124)5% (14)1.01 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense244% (93)43% (74)14.522.5156.5710.83 (90)0 (1).11 (115)1.4 (105)29% (52)27% (100)-.02 (126)2% (10)1.5 (120)
ECU Defense359% (125)34% (39) - - - - - - 3 (28).07 (31)1.5 (54)41% (4)28% (63).15 (43)7% (38)1.8 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense253% (94)30% (18) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.09 (16)0.9 (2)40% (7)12% (6)-.07 (13)3% (124)1.7 (37)
ECU Offense358% (19)53% (23)3042346.38.311.56 (34)1 (23).48 (25)1.5 (77)29% (58)43% (20).81 (9)4% (45)2.3 (30)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 14.25 #41
BYU's Offense Rating: 14.19 #59
BYU's Defense Rating: -0.06 #26
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.5 #27
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #21

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 14.25   East Carolina: 4.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 12.5   East Carolina: 0.4




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 4.21 #73
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.15 #73
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #74

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


BYU Scoring
Offense: 48 PPG
Offense on Road: 48
Defense: 1.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 1.5

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 30
East Carolina 21


Total Points: 50

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 37 PPG
Offense at Home: 56
Defense: 9 PPG
Defense at Home: 3

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/28BYU24East Carolina27East CarolinaBYU -3.0East Carolina64.0Under
201710/21East Carolina33BYU17East CarolinaBYU -5.5East Carolina55.0Under
201510/10BYU45East Carolina38BYUBYU -8.5East Carolina60.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina231 Overs
BYU102 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 20 - 21 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 10 - 12 - 0

(#41) BYU Info
Power Rating: 14.25 #41
Offense Rating: 14.19 #59
Defense Rating: -0.06 #26
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.5 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #21
Talent Rating: 686.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 47%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.5 PPO
Good Run Success 50%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 24%
Great in Scoring Position 0.75 PPO
Great Run Def Success 17%
Great Pass Def Success 30%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

BYU has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

BYU Notes
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team

BYU Highlights
BYU is Undefeated vs Spread
BYU in Undefeated

BYU has Really Good Running Game (#29)
BYU has a top Offensive Line (#18)
BYU offense is good on 3rd downs
BYU does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)

BYU has a really good defense (#3)
BYU defense does not give up big plays (#1)
BYU defense is really good in red zone (#1)
BYU has a good run defense (#2)
BYU has a good pass defense (#18)
BYU Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#1)
BYU Defensive Line is very good (#1)
BYU Front 7 is disruptive (#2)
BYU has a great TO Margin (#11)
BYU commits very few Penalties (#6)

BYU Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatECUBYU
OverallOver#46#12
OffenseOff#57#15
DefenseDef#40#35
Special TeamsST#46#11
PassingPass#18#61
RushingRush#73#20
Run BlockRBLK#101#9
Pass BlockPBLK#85#34
Route RunningWR Rt#34#59
TacklingTkl#111#34
Run DefenseR Def#28#20
Pass Rush DefPRush#56#44
Coverage DefCov#29#49

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat BYU in 2022 (27-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BYU | ECU
Depth Chart: BYU | ECU
Rosters: BYU | ECU
(#73) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: 4.21 #73
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 8.15 #73
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #74
Talent Rating: 690.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Awful Run Success 30%
Good Pass Success 53%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 2.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 36%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

East Carolina has won 2 straight
East Carolina has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

East Carolina Notes
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.

East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina is Undefeated vs Spread
East Carolina is Undefeated at Home
East Carolina is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

East Carolina offense is good on 3rd downs
East Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#20)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)
East Carolina Front 7 is disruptive (#3)
East Carolina has a great TO Margin (#11)
East Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)
East Carolina run game is really bad (#132)


  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)243863%272307.2
McCae Hillstead4580%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2624109.349
Sione I Moa106216.219
Cody Hagen257128.557
Jovesa Damuni85006.312
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Roberts688114.741
Carsen Ryan (Tr)583116.625
Cody Hagen235017.524
Jojo Phillips330010.021

View BYU's Full Roster
BYU's DC Jay Hill
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Logan Lutui83000
Isaiah Glasker73120
Jack Kelly63120
Faletau Satuala62000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Choe Bryant-Strother21100
Jack Kelly63120
Keanu Tanuvasa (Tr)51110
Anisi Purcell (Tr)41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bodie Schoonover20011
Logan Lutui83000
Talan Alfrey31000

East Carolina's OC John David Baker
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser8311672%973518.4
Mike Wright (Tr)3560%13002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery3010823.610
Parker Jenkins (Tr)237823.417
TJ Engleman116716.118
Mike Wright (Tr)85016.318
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith23241010.531
Brock Spalding13221117.055
Jayvontay Conner7162123.179
Yannick Smith1413629.725

View East Carolina's Full Roster
East Carolina's DC Josh Aldridge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle140003
Samuel Dankah122011
Ryheem Craig101111
Teagan Wilk (Tr)91000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jasiyah Robinson42210
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)72201
J.D. Lampley53111
Preston Carr82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle140003
Kevon Merrell31012
Chance Graves (Tr)10001