BYU at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo BYU Cougars at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
BYU -6.5 (49.5) (-245)  Open: -9.5
BYU 34 - East Carolina: 13

 
Cougars (8 - 1) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 33 - 18 (28 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
BYU coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: BYU -8  (SP+ BYU -11)

Projected Score: BYU: 29 - ECU: 21 (51)
BYU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BYU Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs behind
Pirates (6 - 3) (5 - 3 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 34 - 17 (37 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-6.5
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-0
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-16.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-28.557.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis+2.5
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-5
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-15

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#37 (.24)45% (39)3348% (26)3.16 (25)19442% (73)1933.97 (60)#26 (.06)39% (42)18.340% (54)39% (41)3.31 (33)48.10.71.8
ECU#42 (.22)46% (31)33.944% (69)3 (46)16649% (15)2573.73 (85)#33 (.09)38% (24)17.336% (18)39% (47)3.26 (30)51.70.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense93327.845.1%3.970.7203861941935.556%43%48%42%13%.24
ECU Defense917.318.437.7%3.261.2 - - - - - 50%50%36%39%21%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense918.323.439.3%3.311.8 - - - - - 50%49%40%39%18%.06
ECU Offense933.937.246.1%3.730.8224221662574.352%48%44%49%12%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU928:4219.940%70%5.948.10.71.85.31.9229.3
East Carolina926:0621.853%35%6.351.70.81.27.31.8029.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense956% (22)48% (26)35.4193.85.521 (16).25 (13)3.16 (25)83% (8)8% (28)0.99 (53)
ECU Defense950% (68)36% (18) - - - - .01 (23)2.41 (33)56% (7)15% (3)1.12 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense950% (71)40% (54) - - - - .06 (54)2.82 (79)75% (93)11% (35)0.91 (48)
ECU Offense952% (56)44% (69)38.6165.74.320 (30).11 (63)3 (46)65% (115)7% (15)0.88 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense943% (114)42% (73)14.623.8192.78.113.211 (86)3 (20).26 (70)1.6 (41)30% (43)27% (100).28 (85)5% (52)2.1 (47)
ECU Defense950% (74)39% (47) - - - - - - 4 (100).17 (44)1.4 (29)38% (5)27% (37).16 (22)6% (88)1.8 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense949% (70)39% (41) - - - - - - 12 (12).09 (17)1.4 (27)33% (41)24% (13).14 (17)7% (37)1.8 (24)
ECU Offense948% (78)49% (15)2131.3256.88.212.213 (61)5 (34).36 (34)1.5 (72)26% (10)39% (9).58 (8)5% (34)1.9 (99)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 18.14  #24
BYU's Offense Rating: 15.91  #35
BYU's Defense Rating: -2.23  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.2  #16
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #25
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0  #16

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.14   East Carolina: 9.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 17.2   East Carolina: 6.4




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 9.655  #51
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 13.03  #50
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.12  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4  #48
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #56
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3  #47

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


BYU Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.4

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 1
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 29
East Carolina 21


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 28
BYU 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 28
BYU 24

Total Points: 52
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 33.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.2
Defense: 17.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.4

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20East Carolina13BYU34BYU -6.5BYU49.5Under
202210/28BYU24East Carolina27BYU -3.0East Carolina64.0Under
201710/21East Carolina33BYU17BYU -5.5East Carolina55.0Under
201510/10BYU45East Carolina38BYU -8.5East Carolina60.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina231 Overs
BYU213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 21 - 30 - 21 - 1
Road Teams2 - 23 - 11 - 12 - 0

(#24) BYU at (#51) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUECU
Power RatePwr #24 #51
SP+SP+ #16 #48
Perf GradeGrade #15 #86
OffenseOff #19 #59
DefenseDef #45 #110
Spec TeamsST #4 #91
TalentTal #79 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #101
BYU Notes
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Perf GradePerf #19 #110
SuccessSuc #39 #24
ExplosiveExp #63 #84
PPAPPA #37 #33
PowerPwr #35 #51
SP+SP+ #25 #47
Pts POPPO #60 #30
HavocHav #31 #8
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Run GameRun #27 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #18
Run ExplRExp #53 #124
PPAExp #13 #23
Run BlockR Blk #5 -
OL YdsOLY #25 #33
Stuff RateStuff #38 #4
TackleTak -  #130
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #53 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #73 #47
Pass ExplPExl #41 #29
PPAExp #70 #44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #91
F7 HavocF7 #28 #3
DB HavocDB #52 #88
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatECU OffBYU Def
Perf GradePerf #59 #45
SuccessSuc #31 #42
ExplosiveExp #91 #25
PPAPPA #42 #26
PowerPwr #50 #22
SP+SP+ #56 #16
Pts POPPO #85 #33
HavocHav #16 #28
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ECU OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #36 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #69 #54
Run ExplRExp #105 #48
PPAExp #63 #54
Run BlockR Blk #123 -
OL YdsOLY #46 #79
Stuff RateStuff #12 #49
TackleTak -  #75
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatECU OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #17 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #41
Pass ExplPExl #72 #27
PPAExp #34 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #119 #68
F7 HavocF7 #15 #35
DB HavocDB #34 #37
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 4
BYU 6.5 (49.5)
BYU won at East Carolina this year (34-13)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat BYU in 2022 (27-24)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)14923962%18811247.9
McCae Hillstead4580%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin14282455.849
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)10542094.022
Cody Hagen7101214.457
Sione I Moa179015.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Roberts38652517.285
Parker Kingston39559414.375
Carsen Ryan (Tr)24292212.228
LJ Martin1711106.519

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala597102
Tanner Wall461000
Isaiah Glasker449351
Jack Kelly4210741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly4210741
Isaiah Glasker449351
Bodie Schoonover212223
Anisi Purcell (Tr)102200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Therrian Alexander202024
Bodie Schoonover212223
Logan Lutui404013

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser18227267%22451258.3
Mike Wright (Tr)3560%13002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery9044945.051
Marlon Gunn6530244.625
TJ Engleman4023015.823
Parker Jenkins (Tr)5919723.317
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith36614317.166
Yannick Smith35474413.559
Brock Spalding27373213.855
Jayvontay Conner13229217.679

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle463005
Samuel Dankah347213
Teagan Wilk (Tr)331003
Dameon Wilson296100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jasiyah Robinson195420
Preston Carr205200
Samuel Dankah347213
Rion Roseborough (Tr)145200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle463005
Ryheem Craig253123
Teagan Wilk (Tr)331003