BYU at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo BYU Cougars at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
BYU -6.5 (49.5) (-245)  Open: -9.5
BYU 34 - East Carolina: 13

 
Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
BYU coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: BYU -6.5  (SP+ BYU -10)

Projected Score: BYU: 27 - ECU: 21 (48)
BYU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BYU Travel: 1884 miles, 2 hrs behind
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-3.051.5W 44 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-2.556.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-17.546.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 12/6 BYU vs Texas Tech+12.550.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 BYU vs Georgia Tech-3.555.0W 25 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#36 (.22)46% (33)31.447% (33)3 (56)17244% (48)1984.03 (39)#31 (.09)39% (38)19.139% (30)41% (61)3.29 (37)41.911.6
ECU#34 (.22)46% (25)32.745% (51)3.04 (53)17149% (14)2593.76 (63)#35 (.09)38% (29)20.138% (20)39% (44)3.05 (21)58.411.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1431.427.545.5%4.031203701721984.853%45%47%44%14%.22
ECU Defense1320.119.838.3%3.051.5 - - - - - 46%52%38%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1419.121.839.1%3.291.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%41%16%.09
ECU Offense1332.736.246.5%3.761224301712594.352%46%45%49%13%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1430:282041%60%5.141.911.65.12.1428.8
East Carolina1326:1522.550%45%6.858.411.57.22131.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1453% (37)47% (33)361724.831 (16).2 (30)3 (56)82% (7)8% (27)0.95 (77)
ECU Defense1346% (28)38% (20) - - - - .02 (25)2.5 (12)49% (1)14% (5)1.09 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1447% (35)39% (30) - - - - .05 (39)2.76 (49)75% (98)10% (68)0.97 (71)
ECU Offense1352% (44)45% (51)39.8170.84.331 (30).12 (67)3.04 (53)69% (93)8% (32)0.84 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1445% (101)44% (48)16.426197.97.612.114 (86)6 (20).28 (53)1.5 (93)30% (42)30% (76).34 (54)6% (68)2.1 (47)
ECU Defense1352% (114)39% (44) - - - - - - 9 (100).17 (36)1.4 (24)36% (13)28% (48).18 (26)6% (81)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1452% (104)41% (61) - - - - - - 16 (12).18 (41)1.5 (25)34% (35)26% (22).15 (14)6% (54)1.9 (24)
ECU Offense1346% (90)49% (14)21.332.5259.1812.220 (61)6 (34).37 (32)1.5 (72)26% (11)37% (12).49 (13)5% (30)1.8 (115)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 18.53  #21
BYU's Offense Rating: 14.49  #43
BYU's Defense Rating: -4.04  #19
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.2  #14
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.0  #20
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0  #20

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.53   East Carolina: 11.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.2   East Carolina: 8.1




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 11.73  #40
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.08  #40
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.72  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1  #40
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 27
East Carolina 21


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 25
BYU 13

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 28
BYU 25

Total Points: 53
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20East Carolina13BYU34BYU -6.5BYU49.5Under
202210/28BYU24East Carolina27BYU -3.0East Carolina64.0Under
201710/21East Carolina33BYU17BYU -5.5East Carolina55.0Under
201510/10BYU45East Carolina38BYU -8.5East Carolina60.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina231 Overs
BYU213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 21 - 30 - 21 - 1
Road Teams2 - 23 - 11 - 12 - 0

(#21) BYU at (#40) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUECU
Power RatePwr #21 #40
SP+SP+ #14 #40
Perf GradeGrade #20 #73
OffenseOff #24 #61
DefenseDef #47 #87
Spec TeamsST #4 #78
TalentTal #79 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #101
BYU Notes
(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Perf GradePerf #24 #87
SuccessSuc #33 #29
ExplosiveExp #107 #88
PPAPPA #36 #35
PowerPwr #43 #45
SP+SP+ #20 #53
Pts POPPO #39 #21
HavocHav #41 #13
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Run GameRun #43 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #20
Run ExplRExp #77 #121
PPAExp #30 #25
Run BlockR Blk #10 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #12
Stuff RateStuff #38 #3
TackleTak -  #133
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #39 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #48 #44
Pass ExplPExl #93 #24
PPAExp #53 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #39 #92
F7 HavocF7 #27 #5
DB HavocDB #68 #81
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffBYU Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #47
SuccessSuc #25 #38
ExplosiveExp #108 #54
PPAPPA #34 #31
PowerPwr #40 #19
SP+SP+ #33 #20
Pts POPPO #63 #37
HavocHav #27 #63
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #34 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #30
Run ExplRExp #121 #71
PPAExp #67 #39
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #53 #49
Stuff RateStuff #14 #36
TackleTak -  #99
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #18 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #61
Pass ExplPExl #72 #25
PPAExp #32 #41
Pass Block/RushP Blk #105 #74
F7 HavocF7 #32 #68
DB HavocDB #30 #54
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 4
BYU 6.5 (49.5)
BYU won at East Carolina this year (34-13)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat BYU in 2022 (27-24)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)25138765%30331577.8
Parker Kingston1617%22003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)147527113.622
Parker Kingston2612334.720
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Kingston66924514.075
Chase Roberts54802614.985
Carsen Ryan (Tr)45620313.843
LJ Martin3625507.126

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala798114
Tanner Wall641000
Isaiah Glasker639391
Jack Kelly52141071
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly52141071
Isaiah Glasker639391
Bodie Schoonover335333
Anisi Purcell (Tr)112200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Logan Lutui505045
Therrian Alexander313125

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Dameon Wilson548121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson257530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004