South Florida at San José State - 2024 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo South Florida Bulls vs San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Tuesday, December 24th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
South Florida -1.5 (66.5) (-118)  Open: -2.5 | 62.5
South Florida 41 - San José State: 39  (Hawaiʻi Bowl)

 
Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: South Florida -6  (SP+ USF -3)

Projected Score: USF: 35 - SJSU: 29 (65)
USF Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USF Travel: 2361 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman-22.5
Sat 9/7 South Florida at Alabama+33.565.5L 16 - 42UY
Sat 9/14 South Florida at Southern Miss-13.058.5W 49 - 24OY
Sat 9/21 South Florida vs Miami+17.064.5L 15 - 50ON
Sat 9/28 South Florida at Tulane+4.060.5L 10 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 South Florida vs Memphis+10.061.0L 3 - 21UN
Sat 10/19 South Florida vs UAB-14.055.5W 35 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1 South Florida at Florida Atlantic-1.548.0W 44 - 21OY
Sat 11/9 South Florida vs Navy+4.559.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 11/16 South Florida at Charlotte+1.553.5W 59 - 24OY
Sat 11/23 South Florida vs Tulsa-17.560.0W 63 - 30OY
Sat 11/30 South Florida at Rice-5.553.5L 28 - 35ON
Tue 12/24 South Florida vs San José State-1.566.5W 41 - 39OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 San José State vs Sacramento State-2.562.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/7 San José State at Air Force+1.543.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 9/14 San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.541.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 9/20 San José State at Washington State+13.055.5L 52 - 54OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 San José State vs Nevada-7.051.5W 35 - 31ON
Sat 10/12 San José State at Colorado State+2.555.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/19 San José State vs Wyoming-13.053.0W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/26 San José State at Fresno State+6.555.0L 10 - 33UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 San José State at Oregon State+3.058.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 11/16 San José State vs Boise State+14.562.0L 21 - 42ON
Fri 11/22 San José State vs UNLV+7.559.5L 16 - 27UN
Fri 11/29 San José State vs Stanford-2.554.5W 34 - 31OY
Tue 12/24 San José State vs South Florida+1.566.5L 39 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)32.239% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)29.838% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)28.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)27.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1332.234.338.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17
SJSU Defense1327.525.640.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1329.831.839.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
SJSU Offense1328.42943.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21  #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25  #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53  #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3  #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21   San José State: -7.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3   San José State: -5.5




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -7.065  #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16  #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66  #71
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5  #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 35
San José State 29


Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
San José State 39
South Florida 26

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
South Florida 30
San José State 30

Total Points: 60
San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202412/24San José State39South Florida41South Florida -1.5South Florida66.5Over
201708/26San José State22South Florida42South Florida -21.5San José State71.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State011 Overs
South Florida211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0

South Florida Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024I Bowl South Florida vs San José State-1.566.5W 41 - 39
2023Raton Bowl South Florida vs Syracuse+3.056.0W 45 - 0
2018Gasparilla Bowl South Florida vs Marshall+3.551.0L 20 - 38
San José State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024I Bowl San José State vs South Florida+1.566.5L 39 - 41
2023I Bowl San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.548.0L 14 - 24
2022Potato Bowl San José State vs Eastern Michigan-3.554.0L 27 - 41
2020Arizona Bowl San José State vs Ball State-9.563.0L 13 - 34
  
(#62) USF at (#94) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFSJSU
Power RatePwr #62 #94
SP+SP+ #79 #92
Perf GradeGrade #100 #91
OffenseOff #120 #86
DefenseDef #61 #84
Spec TeamsST #92 #103
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #102
South Florida Notes
(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report
San José State Notes
(11/29) Eget torches Stanford, Def forced 3 TOs, big W
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks
(9/17) 3 awful opps, zero run game. Pass game good #'s
San José State Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USF OffSJSU Def
Perf GradePerf #120 #84
SuccessSuc #118 #57
ExplosiveExp #10 #48
PPAPPA #83 #27
PowerPwr #72 #71
SP+SP+ #51 #90
Pts POPPO #74 #44
HavocHav #57 #47
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USF OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #67 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #66
Run ExplRExp #3 #16
PPAExp #32 #21
Run BlockR Blk #127 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #23
Stuff RateStuff #45 #30
TackleTak -  #117
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USF OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #114 #37
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #47
Pass ExplPExl #109 #105
PPAExp #113 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #97 #121
F7 HavocF7 #62 #41
DB HavocDB #68 #56
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatSJSU OffUSF Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #61
SuccessSuc #56 #36
ExplosiveExp #54 #115
PPAPPA #71 #66
PowerPwr #102 #48
SP+SP+ #73 #108
Pts POPPO #96 #88
HavocHav #110 #15
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #90 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #17
Run ExplRExp #127 #121
PPAExp #131 #26
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #18
Stuff RateStuff #134 #10
TackleTak -  #84
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatSJSU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #27 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #69
Pass ExplPExl #74 #78
PPAExp #39 #89
Pass Block/RushP Blk #130 #32
F7 HavocF7 #57 #11
DB HavocDB #131 #46
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 1
South Florida 1.5 (66.5)
South Florida won at San José State this year (41-39)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat San José State last year (41-39)

  
USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Archie17229059%19149106.6
Byrum Brown7813259%836206.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.121799126.654
Nay'Quan Wright10951084.764
Taron Keith7841985.442
Byrum Brown6826934.042
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sean Atkins80799210.052
Keshaun Singleton27428315.967
Mike Brown-Stephens28350412.532
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)21254012.151

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Tavin Ward612003
Jhalyn Shuler607441
Jamie Pettway567222
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Jhalyn Shuler607441
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)3910332
Ricardo Watson368320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4800010
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)412007
Ben Knox221106

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget18832857%250413107.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)12521758%16211657.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)154721104.766
Jabari Bates5925414.331
Lamar Radcliffe3314114.318
Walker Eget299903.432
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Nash10413821613.345
Justin Lockhart53983518.557
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)28482217.231
Matthew Coleman34401211.833

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard11514223
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Isiah Revis716125
Taniela Latu717132
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Soane Toia5510540
John Ward467341
Jordan Cobbs698311
Jordan Pollard11514223
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby371006
D.J. Harvey587206
Isiah Revis716125