South Florida at San José State - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls vs San José State Spartans

Tuesday, December 24th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
South Florida -1.5 (66.5) (-118) Open: -2.5 | 62.5
South Florida 41 - San José State: 39 (Hawaiʻi Bowl)

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: South Florida -6 (SP+ USF -3)
Projected Score: USF: 35 - SJSU: 29 (64)
USF Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USF Travel: 4680 miles, 5 hrs ahead

Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
USF Players
SJSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

San José State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	San José State vs Sacramento State	-2.5	62.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	San José State at Air Force	+1.5	43.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/14	San José State vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 9/20	San José State at Washington State	+13.0	55.5	L 52 - 54	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	San José State vs Nevada	-7.0	51.5	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	San José State at Colorado State	+2.5	55.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/19	San José State vs Wyoming	-13.0	53.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	San José State at Fresno State	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	San José State at Oregon State	+3.0	58.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	San José State vs Boise State	+14.5	62.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/22	San José State vs UNLV	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/29	San José State vs Stanford	-2.5	54.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Tue 12/24	San José State vs South Florida	+1.5	66.5	L 39 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#79 (.17)	39% (106)	40.5	39% (112)	2.99 (92)	183	40% (82)	269	3.63 (89)	#97 (.23)	40% (41)	23.4	40% (44)	40% (47)	3.7 (60)	65.5	1.6	1.9
SJSU	#22 (.29)	45% (29)	21.4	48% (23)	3.21 (48)	184	43% (51)	219	3.73 (81)	#104 (.24)	43% (79)	32.5	45% (91)	41% (60)	3.86 (74)	49.1	0.8	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	39.2%	3.63	1.6	23	452	183	269	4.1	52%	47%	39%	40%	16%	.17
SJSU Defense	13	32.5	29.5	42.8%	3.86	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	45%	41%	15%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	39.8%	3.7	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	40%	40%	19%	.23
SJSU Offense	13	21.4	25.8	45.5%	3.73	0.8	21	404	184	219	5.6	50%	50%	48%	43%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	28:35	23.1	38%	43%	7.5	65.5	1.6	1.9	7.5	1.8	1	29.9
San José State	13	30:35	20.8	45%	37%	5.7	49.1	0.8	1.6	4.8	1.6	3	34.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (112)	44.6	182.8	4.1	23 (46)	.15 (68)	2.99 (92)	81% (12)	11% (92)	1.16 (8)
SJSU Defense	13	56% (120)	45% (91)	-	-	-	-	.25 (121)	3.47 (126)	75% (81)	9% (104)	1.03 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	45% (16)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.11 (44)	2.73 (16)	69% (44)	12% (15)	1.19 (125)
SJSU Offense	13	50% (71)	48% (23)	33	184.1	5.6	31 (17)	.24 (22)	3.21 (48)	72% (85)	10% (61)	1.11 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	47% (87)	40% (82)	22.1	34.4	268.8	7.8	12.2	27 (25)	11 (68)	.26 (73)	1.6 (64)	36% (121)	27% (95)	.31 (76)	5% (39)	2.3 (15)
SJSU Defense	13	43% (10)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (80)	1.6 (80)	31% (91)	33% (108)	.44 (119)	6% (80)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	54% (117)	40% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (21)	.37 (112)	1.8 (128)	35% (33)	29% (56)	.37 (96)	7% (46)	2.3 (126)
SJSU Offense	13	50% (61)	43% (51)	17.7	28.9	219.5	7.6	12.4	21 (65)	4 (2)	.34 (44)	1.7 (28)	33% (91)	38% (9)	.48 (22)	6% (59)	2 (79)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 244.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21 San José State: -7.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3 San José State: -5.5

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -7.065 #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16 #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66 #71
2024 Talent Rating: 174.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 35
San José State 29

Projected Total Points: 64

San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/24	San José State	39	South Florida	41	South Florida -1.5	South Florida	66.5	Over
2017	08/26	San José State	22	South Florida	42	South Florida -21.5	San José State	71.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San José State	0	1	1 Overs
South Florida	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0

South Florida Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	I Bowl	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39
2023	Raton Bowl	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0
2018	Gasparilla Bowl	South Florida vs Marshall	+3.5	51.0	L 20 - 38

San José State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	I Bowl	San José State vs South Florida	+1.5	66.5	L 39 - 41
2023	I Bowl	San José State vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	48.0	L 14 - 24
2022	Potato Bowl	San José State vs Eastern Michigan	-3.5	54.0	L 27 - 41
2020	Arizona Bowl	San José State vs Ball State	-9.5	63.0	L 13 - 34

(#62) USF at (#94) SJSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	SJSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#62	#94
SP+SP+	#79	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#91
OffenseOff	#120	#86
DefenseDef	#61	#84
Spec TeamsST	#92	#103
TalentTal	#100	#122
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

San José State Notes(11/29) Eget torches Stanford, Def forced 3 TOs, big W
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks
(9/17) 3 awful opps, zero run game. Pass game good #'s
San José State Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	SJSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#84
SuccessSuc	#106	#79
ExplosiveExp	#28	#60
PPAPPA	#79	#104
PowerPwr	#72	#71
SP+SP+	#51	#90
Pts POPPO	#89	#74
HavocHav	#77	#102

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#67	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#91
Run ExplRExp	#8	#88
PPAExp	#68	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#113
TackleTak	-	#117

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#80
PPAExp	#73	#80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#121
F7 HavocF7	#92	#104
DB HavocDB	#39	#80

San José State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#61
SuccessSuc	#29	#41
ExplosiveExp	#12	#131
PPAPPA	#22	#97
PowerPwr	#102	#48
SP+SP+	#73	#108
Pts POPPO	#81	#60
HavocHav	#62	#15

San José State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#90	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#23	#44
Run ExplRExp	#21	#125
PPAExp	#22	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#17
TackleTak	-	#84

San José State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#128
PPAExp	#44	#112
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#130	#32
F7 HavocF7	#61	#15
DB HavocDB	#59	#46

Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
South Florida 1.5 (66.5)
South Florida won at San José State this year (41-39)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat San José State in 2024 (41-39)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget	188	328	57%	2504	13	10	7.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)	125	217	58%	1621	16	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)	154	721	10	4.7	66
Jabari Bates	59	254	1	4.3	31
Lamar Radcliffe	33	141	1	4.3	18
Walker Eget	29	99	0	3.4	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	104	1382	16	13.3	45
Justin Lockhart	53	983	5	18.5	57
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)	28	482	2	17.2	31
Matthew Coleman	34	401	2	11.8	33

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3
Robert Rahimi (Tr)	82	6	1	1	5
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5
Taniela Latu	71	7	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
John Ward	46	7	3	4	1
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Dansby	37	1	0	0	6
D.J. Harvey	58	7	2	0	6
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5