Liberty at Old Dominion - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Old Dominion MonarchsOld Dominion logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Old Dominion -14.5 (53.5) (-675)  Open: -8.5
Old Dominion 21 - Liberty: 7

 
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Light Rain Predicted
ODU coming off BYE
LIB is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Old Dominion -8  (SP+ ODU -15)

Projected Score: LIB: 21 - ODU: 29 (51)
ODU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
LIB Travel: 161 miles
Monarchs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (20 - 30)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (34 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#33)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Old Dominion at Indiana+23.554.5L 14 - 27UY
Sat 9/6 Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central-22.050.5W 54 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+5.550.5W 45 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Old Dominion vs Liberty-14.553.5W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/4 Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina-18.553.5W 47 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Old Dominion at Marshall-14.557.5L 24 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Old Dominion at James Madison+3.047.5L 27 - 63ON
Sat 10/25 Old Dominion vs App State-12.560.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/1 Old Dominion at UL Monroe-16.555.5W 31 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Old Dominion vs Troy-9.553.5W 33 - 0UY
Sat 11/22 Old Dominion at Georgia Southern-10.062.0W 45 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Old Dominion vs Georgia State-29.058.5W 27 - 10UN
Wed 12/17 Old Dominion vs South Florida+4.052.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)25.654% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)26.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
ODU#47 (.22)42% (71)3245% (55)3.24 (34)21140% (89)1934.75 (6)#71 (.17)39% (33)18.538% (22)40% (64)3.64 (50)54.21.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ODU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1225.619.749.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26
ODU Defense1218.58.538.8%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%46%38%40%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1226.525.739.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
ODU Offense123234.342.4%4.751.7204042111935.455%44%45%40%16%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Old Dominion1227:5919.743%64%6.254.21.71.46.21.9027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)
ODU Defense1253% (101)38% (22) - - - - .1 (61)3.01 (71)77% (94)11% (49)1.03 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
ODU Offense1255% (34)45% (55)39.5211.35.427 (30).21 (30)3.24 (34)67% (108)11% (105)1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)
ODU Defense1246% (32)40% (64) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (95)1.8 (126)35% (24)31% (78).4 (104)5% (98)2.3 (129)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
ODU Offense1244% (104)40% (89)16.327.8192.66.911.917 (79)9 (48).27 (61)1.6 (41)33% (107)30% (86).36 (56)5% (30)2.2 (17)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -6.14  #81
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75  #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -6.14   Old Dominion: 0.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -9.0   Old Dominion: 5.9




Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: 0.59  #100
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 6.98  #107
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 16.70  #90
2025 Talent Rating: 328.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Old Dominion's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 3.8
Old Dominion's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #49
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Old Dominion 29
Liberty 21


Projected Total Points: 51
Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.3
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Old Dominion's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Old Dominion21Liberty7Old Dominion -14.5Liberty53.5Under
202311/11Liberty38Old Dominion10Liberty -13.5Liberty58.5Under
202210/01Old Dominion24Liberty38Liberty -3.5Liberty48.0Over
202109/18Liberty45Old Dominion17Liberty -26.5Liberty53.5Over
201809/01Liberty52Old Dominion10Old Dominion -5Liberty59.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Old Dominion103 Overs
Liberty452 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 13 - 22 - 11 - 1
Road Teams1 - 42 - 31 - 11 - 2

(#81) LIB at (#100) ODU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBODU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #81 #100
SP+SP+ #102 #49
Perf GradeGrade #69 #40
OffenseOff #58 #60
DefenseDef #79 #19
Spec TeamsST #104 #99
TalentTal #93 #130
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
Old Dominion Notes
(12/2) QB Colton Joseph will enter portal. Huge loss
(10/21) Killed by JMU, Def dogwalked, Rush Off tanked, 3 TO
(10/12) Def torched in awful L vs Marshall. Season derailer?
(10/7) Off is dropping big time #'s, Monarchs #1 SBC team?
(10/7) QB Colton Joseph is the best QB no one has heard of
(9/15) Joseph torched VT, great W for ODU, Off good
(9/7) LB Henderson retired. Big loss & blow to Def
(8/30) Run game good vs IU, Run Def torched 300+
(8/1) QB Joseph back, mobile. Good red zone runner
(8/1) WR/TE rebuild, little exp. Rahne like units though
(8/1) Def Avg LY, returns a ton. Added 8 DB portals
(8/1) Emerging team with upward trajectory this year
Old Dominion Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffODU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #19
SuccessSuc #7 #33
ExplosiveExp #131 #116
PPAPPA #24 #71
PowerPwr #88 #90
SP+SP+ #86 #48
Pts POPPO #43 #50
HavocHav #33 #68
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffODU Def
Run GameRun #75 #46
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #22
Run ExplRExp #94 #91
PPAExp #16 #61
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #71
Stuff RateStuff #9 #68
TackleTak -  #110
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffODU Def
Pass GamePass #109 #3
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #64
Pass ExplPExl #104 #126
PPAExp #56 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #80
F7 HavocF7 #43 #49
DB HavocDB #36 #98
Old Dominion on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatODU OffLIB Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #60 #79
SuccessSuc #71 #39
ExplosiveExp #16 #67
PPAPPA #47 #24
PowerPwr #107 #87
SP+SP+ #39 #103
Pts POPPO #6 #58
HavocHav #76 #71
Old Dominion Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
ODU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #56 #93
Run SuccessRSuc #55 #30
Run ExplRExp #8 #68
PPAExp #30 #20
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #21
Stuff RateStuff #39 #28
TackleTak -  #76
Old Dominion Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatODU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #74 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #66
Pass ExplPExl #41 #77
PPAExp #61 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #28 #89
F7 HavocF7 #105 #59
DB HavocDB #30 #82
Program Comparison
ODU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Foreman Field
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 72° - Wind: 9 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 5
Old Dominion -14.5 (53.5)
Old Dominion won vs Liberty this year (21-7)

Previous Matchups
Old Dominion beat Liberty last year (21-7)
Liberty beat Old Dominion in 2023 (38-10)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Colton Joseph17328860%261921109.1
Quinn Henicle174043%184004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Colton Joseph1571011136.478
Trequan Jones10579267.593
Devin Roche11163445.767
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)6426844.229
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre' Brown III38762420.198
Ja'Cory Thomas41714517.455
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding51667613.146
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)6192232.080

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mario Easterly802034
Jerome Carter763022
Jeremy Mack Jr.7510633
Jahleel Culbreath7110330
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremy Mack Jr.7510633
Jackson Forrest527510
Kris Trinidad337443
Javen Gibson245410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Crutchfield350006
Zion Frink601006
Nickendre Stiger (Tr)463005