Oregon State at App State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers at App State MountaineersApp State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
App State -1.5 (53.5) (-122)  Open: -1.5
App State 27 - Oregon State: 23

 
Beavers (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Gunderson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
ORST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: App State -0.5  (SP+ APP -4)

Projected Score: ORST: 25 - APP: 26 (51)
APP Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ORST Travel: 2238 miles, 3 hrs behind
Mountaineers (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
 
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon State vs California-3.051.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.045.5L 27 - 36ON
Sat 9/13 Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.561.5L 7 - 45UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon State at Oregon+33.558.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 9/26 Oregon State vs Houston+11.548.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Oregon State at App State+1.553.5L 23 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.547.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.056.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Oregon State vs Washington State+3.547.5W 10 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.052.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Oregon State at Tulsa+1.550.5L 14 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Oregon State at Washington State+14.042.5L 8 - 32UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+16.559.5L 14 - 47ON
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State-1.553.5W 27 - 23UY
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-3.055.5W 41 - 20OY
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-10.548.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+12.560.5L 21 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-4.562.5L 23 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+21.053.5L 10 - 58ON
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall+3.557.5W 26 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-1.054.5L 29 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#123 (.05)42% (69)17.644% (67)2.82 (91)12742% (71)2252.89 (128)#74 (.18)38% (28)29.441% (51)36% (21)3.41 (45)49.91.70.8
APP#93 (.13)41% (85)25.343% (72)2.99 (59)12440% (88)2623.69 (72)#75 (.18)45% (110)29.845% (98)45% (113)4.18 (113)63.81.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1217.611.842.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05
APP Defense1229.826.744.7%4.181.5 - - - - - 45%53%45%45%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1229.435.238.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
APP Offense1225.32741.5%3.691.5213851242623.942%56%43%40%17%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
App State1228:1121.133%63%6.863.81.51.55.82.3128
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1246% (99)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (91)77% (30)9% (61)0.73 (135)
APP Defense1245% (19)45% (98) - - - - .05 (45)2.8 (53)70% (56)10% (55)0.82 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1249% (56)41% (51) - - - - .07 (53)2.6 (17)68% (41)10% (55)0.94 (59)
APP Offense1242% (123)43% (72)31.4123.53.911 (99).07 (94)2.99 (59)67% (96)8% (29)0.77 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1252% (35)42% (71)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (74)28% (94).05 (133)7% (111)1.7 (134)
APP Defense1253% (122)45% (113) - - - - - - 12 (22).31 (94)1.5 (51)32% (54)32% (93).36 (104)7% (24)2.2 (119)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1249% (79)36% (21) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (95)2 (136)33% (41)29% (69).44 (126)7% (22)2.5 (136)
APP Offense1256% (16)40% (88)23.639.9261.96.611.123 (33)11 (108).23 (81)1.6 (65)33% (103)33% (38).33 (59)9% (133)1.9 (107)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -3.26  #83
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 1.36  #120
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 4.62  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #121
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #126
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #93

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 748
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -3.26   App State: -8.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.8   App State: -10.6




App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -8.385  #110
App State's Offense Rating: 3.41  #105
App State's Defense Rating: 14.58  #107
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.6  #108
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
App State 26
Oregon State 25


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
App State 31
Oregon State 16

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
App State 29
Oregon State 22

Total Points: 51
App State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04App State27Oregon State23App State -1.5App State53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
App State110 Overs
Oregon State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#83) ORST at (#110) APP
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTAPP
Power RatePwr #83 #110
SP+SP+ #121 #108
Perf GradeGrade #113 #90
OffenseOff #103 #98
DefenseDef #93 #53
Spec TeamsST #136 #36
TalentTal #61 #84
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #101
Oregon State Notes
(11/28) Hired Bama Co-OC JaMarcus Shepard as HC
(11/10) Interim HC Robb Akey fired? That's new
(11/10) OC Ryan Gunderson now interim HC
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
Oregon State Injury Report
App State Notes
(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffAPP Def
Perf GradePerf #103 #53
SuccessSuc #69 #110
ExplosiveExp #135 #44
PPAPPA #123 #75
PowerPwr #120 #107
SP+SP+ #126 #119
Pts POPPO #128 #113
HavocHav #90 #40
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #118 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #98
Run ExplRExp #135 #9
PPAExp #120 #45
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #91 #53
Stuff RateStuff #25 #76
TackleTak -  #61
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #106 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #71 #113
Pass ExplPExl #133 #51
PPAExp #123 #94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #86 #9
F7 HavocF7 #61 #55
DB HavocDB #111 #24
App State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatAPP OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #98 #93
SuccessSuc #85 #28
ExplosiveExp #99 #132
PPAPPA #93 #74
PowerPwr #105 #42
SP+SP+ #92 #93
Pts POPPO #72 #45
HavocHav #99 #37
App State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffORST Def
Run GameRun #87 #90
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #51
Run ExplRExp #132 #59
PPAExp #94 #53
Run BlockR Blk #99 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #17
Stuff RateStuff #29 #23
TackleTak -  #126
App State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatAPP OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #74 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #88 #21
Pass ExplPExl #65 #136
PPAExp #81 #95
Pass Block/RushP Blk #115 #64
F7 HavocF7 #29 #55
DB HavocDB #133 #22
Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
App State -1.5 (53.5)
App State won vs Oregon State this year (27-23)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)16027658%1802986.5
Gabarri Johnson6210062%501235.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson247108894.465
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
Gabarri Johnson3411913.552
Salahadin Allah197103.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker68823212.143
David Wells Jr.44466410.656
Tastean Reddicks30391013.037
Bryce Caufield2921917.630

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas780024
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaheim Patterson671014
Dexter Foster523041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jojo Johnson187380
Jacob Schuster142202
Takari Hickle385250
Shamar Meikle286240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalil Tucker251015
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Trey Glasper232005

APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)17486845.039
Jaquari Lewis12456364.527
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Khamani Alexander72804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Barnes (Tr)55608711.159
Dalton Stroman32569417.872
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Izayah Cummings (Tr)37374110.130

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares899223
Zyeir Gamble663004
DJ Burks652005
Elijah Mc-Cantos521002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne397552
Aiden Benton345460
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)194432
Thomas Davis256320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson4010011
DJ Burks652005
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)471004