Hawai'i at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
San José State -2.5 (55.5) (-130)  Open: -1.5
San José State 45 - Hawai'i: 38  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
HAW coming off BYE
SJSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -4.5  (SP+ HAW -14.5)

Projected Score: HAW: 31 - SJSU: 26 (57)
SJSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 2413 miles, 2 hrs behind
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
SJSU#66 (.18)44% (55)21.447% (29)3.06 (44)12041% (73)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (78)32.542% (66)43% (82)4.04 (106)54.82.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense132925.841.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18
SJSU Defense1232.529.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense1324.135.441.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
SJSU Offense1221.425.843.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (66) - - - - .11 (69)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (29)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (66)3.06 (44)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (82) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (110)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (54).32 (84)5% (119)2.1 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (73)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (82)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (47).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (124)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -9.82   San José State: -8.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 0.9   San José State: -13.5




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.89  #106
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.69  #91
San José State's Defense Rating: 13.97  #104
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5  #116
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #107
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 31
San José State 26


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 33
San José State 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 29
San José State 27

Total Points: 56
San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01San José State45Hawai'i38San José State -2.5San José State55.5Over
202310/28Hawai'i0San José State35San José State -10.5San José State57.0Under
202211/26San José State27Hawai'i14San José State -15.5Hawai'i58.5Under
202109/19Hawai'i13San José State17San José State -8Hawai'i62.5Under
202012/05San José State35Hawai'i24Hawai'i -2.5San José State59.0Push
201911/09Hawai'i42San José State40Hawai'i -7.5San José State78.5Over
201809/29San José State41Hawai'i44Hawai'i -9San José State63.5Over
201710/14Hawai'i37San José State26Hawai'i -17San José State59.5Over
201610/08San José State17Hawai'i34San José State -3.5Hawai'i62.5Under
201511/21Hawai'i23San José State42San José State -9San José State52.5Over
201411/15San José State0Hawai'i13San José State -10Hawai'i0
201310/06Hawai'i27San José State37San José State -4.5San José State0
201110/14San José State28Hawai'i27
201011/20Hawai'i41San José State7
200911/21San José State10Hawai'i17
200809/28Hawai'i17San José State20
200710/12San José State35Hawai'i42
200611/18Hawai'i54San José State17
200510/22San José State38Hawai'i45
200410/24Hawai'i46San José State28
200311/01San José State10Hawai'i13
200211/03Hawai'i40San José State31
200111/04Hawai'i34San José State10
200010/27Hawai'i48San José State57
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State1085 Overs
Hawai'i1444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 81 - 53 - 3
Road Teams13 - 118 - 43 - 35 - 1

(#108) HAW at (#106) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWSJSU
Power RatePwr #108 #106
SP+SP+ #68 #116
Perf GradeGrade #100 #109
OffenseOff #107 #115
DefenseDef #96 #74
Spec TeamsST #71 #29
TalentTal #125 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSJSU Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #74
SuccessSuc #88 #78
ExplosiveExp #29 #100
PPAPPA #62 #98
PowerPwr #118 #104
SP+SP+ #75 #115
Pts POPPO #61 #106
HavocHav #16 #129
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #111 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #66
Run ExplRExp #90 #37
PPAExp #118 #69
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #97
Stuff RateStuff #98 #128
TackleTak -  #81
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #82
Pass ExplPExl #61 #128
PPAExp #47 #110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #84
F7 HavocF7 #13 #123
DB HavocDB #39 #119
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #96
SuccessSuc #55 #67
ExplosiveExp #59 #87
PPAPPA #66 #72
PowerPwr #91 #87
SP+SP+ #107 #65
Pts POPPO #130 #41
HavocHav #69 #63
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #61 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #74
Run ExplRExp #78 #76
PPAExp #66 #66
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #119
Stuff RateStuff #84 #117
TackleTak -  #128
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #100 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #73 #58
Pass ExplPExl #106 #77
PPAExp #82 #71
Pass Block/RushP Blk #128 #29
F7 HavocF7 #2 #82
DB HavocDB #135 #41
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 60°
Rematch from Week 10
San José State -2.5 (55.5)
San José State won vs Hawai'i this year (45-38)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (35-0)
San José State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (27-14)

  
HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Gafa Faga476350
Jordan Pollard1085344
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344