Hawai'i at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (3 - 1) (2 - 2 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (6 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
HAW coming off BYE
SJSU coming off BYE
Our Line: San José State -2.5   (SP+ HAW -1.5)

Projected Score: HAW: 19 - SJSU: 21 (40)
SJSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 2413 miles, 3 hrs behind
Spartans (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 11 - 27 (14 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+3.047.5
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State-6
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.5
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Hawai'i at UNLV+10
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+10
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-8
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming+6
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-5.5
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+6
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#114 (.07)40% (97)22.341% (92)2.82 (85)9940% (94)2443.26 (106)#50 (.07)35% (38)20.837% (58)34% (37)3.15 (56)86.520.8
SJSU#132 (-.02)40% (102)10.544% (70)2.81 (86)8038% (102)2481.4 (132)#83 (.16)42% (81)2744% (93)38% (56)3.13 (55)273.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense422.3640%3.26221343992443.436%64%41%40%17%.07
SJSU Defense2271642%3.131 - - - - - 67%33%44%38%13%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense420.84035.2%3.150.8 - - - - - 47%52%37%34%16%.07
SJSU Offense210.51439.7%1.43.51832880248336%63%44%38%19%-.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i431:3920.837%71%8.586.520.84.82.3128.5
San José State228:0017.539%0%3.5273.513.50.5027
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense436% (131)41% (92)28.8993.40 (135)-.12 (130)2.82 (85)67% (86)9% (80)0.64 (130)
SJSU Defense267% (135)44% (93) - - - - .08 (76)3.08 (101)63% (43)7% (114)0.78 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense447% (50)37% (58) - - - - .1 (89)3.07 (100)86% (112)9% (90)1.11 (100)
SJSU Offense236% (134)44% (70)26.58031 (127)-.16 (132)2.81 (86)50% (124)7% (40)0.39 (136)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense464% (4)40% (94)26.843.8244.35.69.17 (23)4 (121).18 (97)1.4 (109)35% (110)29% (87).3 (77)8% (122)2 (64)
SJSU Defense233% (3)38% (56) - - - - - - 1 (87).32 (103)1.9 (122)33% (66)14% (9).14 (41)6% (76)2.4 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense452% (85)34% (37) - - - - - - 3 (28).08 (33)1.2 (9)35% (49)23% (36).17 (50)8% (30)1.9 (54)
SJSU Offense263% (6)38% (102)22.5432485.8112 (102)3 (92).13 (109)1.3 (117)32% (88)21% (123)-.08 (132)11% (136)1.3 (131)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -7.29 #100
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -7.29   San José State: -6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.3   San José State: -11.8




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -6.53 #96
San José State's Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 6
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 40

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 21
Hawai'i 19


Total Points: 40

San José State Scoring
Offense: 10.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 16

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Hawai'i0San José State35San José StateSan José State -10.5San José State57.0Under
202211/26San José State27Hawai'i14San José StateSan José State -15.5Hawai'i58.5Under
202109/19Hawai'i13San José State17San José StateSan José State -8Hawai'i62.5Under
202012/05San José State35Hawai'i24San José StateHawai'i -2.5San José State59.0Push
201911/09Hawai'i42San José State40Hawai'iHawai'i -7.5San José State78.5Over
201809/29San José State41Hawai'i44Hawai'iHawai'i -9San José State63.5Over
201710/14Hawai'i37San José State26Hawai'iHawai'i -17San José State59.5Over
201610/08San José State17Hawai'i34Hawai'iSan José State -3.5Hawai'i62.5Under
201511/21Hawai'i23San José State42San José StateSan José State -9San José State52.5Over
201411/15San José State0Hawai'i13Hawai'iSan José State -10Hawai'i0
201310/06Hawai'i27San José State37San José StateSan José State -4.5San José State0
201110/14San José State28Hawai'i27San José State
201011/20Hawai'i41San José State7Hawai'i
200911/21San José State10Hawai'i17Hawai'i
200809/28Hawai'i17San José State20San José State
200710/12San José State35Hawai'i42Hawai'i
200611/18Hawai'i54San José State17Hawai'i
200510/22San José State38Hawai'i45Hawai'i
200410/24Hawai'i46San José State28Hawai'i
200311/01San José State10Hawai'i13Hawai'i
200211/03Hawai'i40San José State31Hawai'i
200111/04Hawai'i34San José State10Hawai'i
200010/27Hawai'i48San José State57San José State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State974 Overs
Hawai'i1444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 133 - 80 - 53 - 3
Road Teams13 - 108 - 33 - 35 - 0

(#100) Hawai'i Info
Power Rating: -7.29 #100
Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.26 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.15 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Hawai'i has lost 4 straight
Hawai'i has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Hawai'i Notes
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
(4/7) Def bad LY, returns some. 4 portal DL added
(4/7) Offense could jump TY, can Def improve?

Hawai'i Highlights
Hawai'i Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Hawai'i Secondary is very good (#30)
Hawai'i defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Hawai'i Deficiencies
Hawai'i has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Hawai'i Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Hawai'i Commits a Lot of Penalties (#136)
Hawai'i throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Hawai'i offense is not Explosive (#113)
Hawai'i offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#106)
Hawai'i Does Not Stuff Runs (#108)
Hawai'i has a bad defensive line (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSJSUHAW
OverallOver#109#87
OffenseOff#108#107
DefenseDef#97#47
Special TeamsST#37#59
PassingPass#93#101
RushingRush#102#82
Run BlockRBLK#102#84
Pass BlockPBLK#118#102
Route RunningWR Rt#89#105
TacklingTkl#75#90
Run DefenseR Def#75#98
Pass Rush DefPRush#82#45
Coverage DefCov#115#4

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (35-0)
San José State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (27-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HAW | SJSU
Depth Chart: HAW | SJSU
Rosters: HAW | SJSU
(#96) San José State Info
Power Rating: -6.53 #96
Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106
Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

San José State has lost 7 straight
San José State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

San José State Notes
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's

San José State Highlights
San José State commits very few Penalties (#1)

San José State Deficiencies
San José State has a really bad Offense
San José State has a really bad Offense at Home
San José State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
San José State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
San José State Can Not Run the Ball (#134)
San José State offense is really bad (#102)
San José State offense is not Explosive (#134)
San José State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#132)
San José State pass game is really bad (#102)
San José State does not Sack the QB (#130)
San José State has a bad defensive line (#101)


  
Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Micah Alejado457064%367215.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims3915403.919
Cam Barfield218904.213
Luke Weaver277302.713
Christian Vaughn32207.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock2623539.047
Landon Sims1815518.628
Karsyn Pupunu1311408.815
Brandon White (Tr)1211109.327

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Jalen Smith180001
Elijah Palmer173003
Jamih Otis170000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III93320
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina124220
Qwyn Williams (Tr)92200
Peter Manuma251114
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Elijah Palmer173003
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen110003

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget458553%496235.8
Tama Amisone010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV208304.211
Jabari Bates104414.413
Lamar Radcliffe123102.68
Tama Amisone52304.610
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)16255115.946
Kyri Shoels108708.716
Leland Smith (Tr)250125.039
Jackson Canaan63906.512

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Taniela Latu153001
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Noah McNeal-Franklin132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)82121
Jordan Pollard200012
Justin Stearns50000
Dejon Roney10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Isiah Revis80001