Maine at Liberty - 2025 Matchup Preview
Maine logo Maine Black Bears at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -25.5 (51.0) (0)  Open: -25.5 | 52.5
Liberty 28 - Maine: 7

 
Black Bears (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 37 (12 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -5.5  (SP+ LIB -8)
LIB Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Maine's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Maine at Liberty+25.551.0L 7 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Maine at Georgia Southern+22.057.5L 17 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Maine's Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 11
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MAINE0%120%000%000%36.50%0%0000
LIB#73 (.17)44% (50)25.647% (39)2.91 (74)19340% (86)1963.68 (73)#101 (.21)42% (69)26.545% (95)39% (41)3.55 (58)55.61.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MAINE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MAINE Offense212120%00000000%0%0%0%0%
LIB Defense1226.527.341.7%3.551.2 - - - - - 54%44%45%39%13%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MAINE Defense236.536.50%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
LIB Offense1225.631.543.9%3.681.8203891931964.658%40%47%40%16%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Maine20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Liberty1230:3920.340%52%6.255.61.81.24.11.3129.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MAINE Offense20%0%000000%0%0
LIB Defense1254% (114)45% (95) - - - - .19 (117)3.18 (115)72% (75)8% (123)1.01 (93)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MAINE Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
LIB Offense1258% (13)47% (39)41.71934.625 (99).18 (37)2.91 (74)73% (62)9% (54)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MAINE Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
LIB Defense1244% (22)39% (41) - - - - - - 7 (55).25 (68)1.6 (106)31% (80)32% (102).5 (133)6% (76)2.3 (134)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MAINE Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
LIB Offense1240% (123)40% (86)14.526.3195.57.413.511 (114)13 (88).21 (87)1.5 (69)29% (26)31% (67).27 (82)7% (106)2 (83)

Maine's Power Ratings
Maine's Power Rating: NR
Maine's Offense Rating: NR
Maine's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Maine's 2025 Expected Record: -
Maine's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Maine's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Maine's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average CAA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Maine:    Liberty: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Maine:    Liberty: -8.4




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -5.5  #97
Liberty's Offense Rating: 4.58  #93
Liberty's Defense Rating: 12.18  #96
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.4  #98
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Maine Scoring
Offense: 12 PPG
Offense on Road: 12
Defense: 36.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Maine's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 35
Maine 18

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Liberty 37
Maine 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 33
Maine 19

Total Points: 52
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Liberty28Maine7Liberty -25.5Maine51.0Under
201910/19Liberty59Maine44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty200 Overs
Maine011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) MAINE at (#97) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMAINELIB
Power RatePwrNR #97
SP+SP+NR #98
Perf GradeGradeNR #67
OffenseOffNR #60
DefenseDefNR #83
Spec TeamsSTNR #103
TalentTalNR #93
Blue ChipsBC%NR #88
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
Maine on Offense
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
Perf GradePerfNR #83
SuccessSucNR #69
ExplosiveExpNR #98
PPAPPANR #101
PowerPwrNR #96
SP+SP+NR #103
Pts POPPONR #58
HavocHavNR #116
Maine Run Game
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
Run GameRunNR #99
Run SuccessRSucNR #95
Run ExplRExpNR #93
PPAExpNR #117
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #115
Stuff RateStuffNR #89
TackleTak -  #66
Maine Pass Game
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
Pass GamePassNR #35
Pass SuccessPSucNR #41
Pass ExplPExlNR #106
PPAExpNR #68
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #93
F7 HavocF7NR #123
DB HavocDBNR #76
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffMAINE Def
Perf GradePerf #60NR
SuccessSuc #50NR
ExplosiveExp #101NR
PPAPPA #73NR
PowerPwr #93NR
SP+SP+ #86NR
Pts POPPO #73NR
HavocHav #76NR
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffMAINE Def
Run GameRun #55NR
Run SuccessRSuc #39NR
Run ExplRExp #62NR
PPAExp #37NR
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #74NR
Stuff RateStuff #42NR
TackleTak - NR
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffMAINE Def
Pass GamePass #114NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #86NR
Pass ExplPExl #69NR
PPAExp #87NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #95NR
F7 HavocF7 #54NR
DB HavocDB #106NR
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MAINE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 78° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Liberty -25.5 (51.0)
Liberty won vs Maine this year (28-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MAINE's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Peevy20033859%22341776.6
Caden Drezek71354%58014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sincere Baines12371135.877
Rashawn Marshall12766945.361
Carter Peevy8332894.062
Nick Laughlin3116415.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Scott Woods II55654511.966
Molayo Irefin34400111.823
Nick Laughlin11197217.981
Trevin Ewing13159112.251

View Maine's Full Roster

MAINE's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Thomas251001
Devin Vaught131001
Latrell Couchman110011
Jamaree Gibson90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Thomas251001
Jake Hall50000
Farradj Titikpina (Tr)10000
Aaron Arteaga10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'kai Chisolm50022
Christian Thomas251001
Latrell Couchman110011

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015