Maine at Liberty - 2025 Matchup Preview
Maine logo   Maine Black Bears at Liberty Flames  Liberty logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -25.5 (51.0) (0)  Open: -25.5 | 52.5
Liberty 28 - Maine: 7

 
Black Bears (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 37 (12 - 37 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -5  (SP+ LIB -9)
LIB Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Maine's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Maine at Liberty+25.551.0L 7 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Maine at Georgia Southern+22.057.5L 17 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Maine's Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MAINE0%120%000%000%36.50%0%0000
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)25.654% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)26.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MAINE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MAINE Offense112120%00000000%0%0%0%0%
LIB Defense1226.527.339.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MAINE Defense136.536.50%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
LIB Offense1225.631.549.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Maine10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MAINE Offense10%0%000000%0%0
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MAINE Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MAINE Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MAINE Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)

Maine's Power Ratings
Maine's Power Rating: NR
Maine's Offense Rating: NR
Maine's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Maine's 2025 Expected Record: -
Maine's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Maine's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Maine's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average CAA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Maine:    Liberty: -5.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Maine:    Liberty: -9.0




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -5.07  #82
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75  #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Maine Scoring
Offense: 12 PPG
Offense on Road: 12
Defense: 36.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Maine's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 33
Maine 19

Projected Total Points: 52
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Liberty28Maine7Liberty -25.5Maine51.0Under
201910/19Liberty59Maine44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty200 Overs
Maine011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#) MAINE at (#82) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMAINELIB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #82
SP+SP+NR #102
Perf GradeGradeNR #69
OffenseOffNR #58
DefenseDefNR #79
Spec TeamsSTNR #104
TalentTalNR #93
Blue ChipsBC%NR #88
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
Maine on Offense
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #79
SuccessSucNR #39
ExplosiveExpNR #67
PPAPPANR #24
PowerPwrNR #88
SP+SP+NR #103
Pts POPPONR #58
HavocHavNR #71
Maine Run Game
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
Run GameRunNR #93
Run SuccessRSucNR #30
Run ExplRExpNR #68
PPAExpNR #20
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #21
Stuff RateStuffNR #28
TackleTak -  #76
Maine Pass Game
CategoryCat
MAINE OffLIB Def
Pass GamePassNR #44
Pass SuccessPSucNR #66
Pass ExplPExlNR #77
PPAExpNR #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #89
F7 HavocF7NR #59
DB HavocDBNR #82
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffMAINE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58NR
SuccessSuc #7NR
ExplosiveExp #131NR
PPAPPA #24NR
PowerPwr #88NR
SP+SP+ #86NR
Pts POPPO #43NR
HavocHav #33NR
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffMAINE Def
Run GameRun #75NR
Run SuccessRSuc #2NR
Run ExplRExp #94NR
PPAExp #16NR
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #7NR
Stuff RateStuff #9NR
TackleTak - NR
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLIB OffMAINE Def
Pass GamePass #109NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #60NR
Pass ExplPExl #104NR
PPAExp #56NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #95NR
F7 HavocF7 #43NR
DB HavocDB #36NR
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MAINE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Liberty -25.5 (51.0)
Liberty won vs Maine this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Maine last year (28-7)

  
MAINE's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Peevy20033859%22341776.6
Caden Drezek71354%58014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sincere Baines12371135.877
Rashawn Marshall12766945.361
Carter Peevy8332894.062
Nick Laughlin3116415.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Scott Woods II55654511.966
Molayo Irefin34400111.823
Nick Laughlin11197217.981
Trevin Ewing13159112.251

View Maine's Full Roster

MAINE's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Thomas251001
Devin Vaught131001
Latrell Couchman110011
Jamaree Gibson90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Thomas251001
Jake Hall50000
Farradj Titikpina (Tr)10000
Dillon White10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'kai Chisolm50022
Christian Thomas251001
Jake Kucera50001

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015