Liberty at UTEP - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at UTEP MinersUTEP logo
Wednesday, October 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#62)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
LIB coming off BYE
UTEP coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -2.5   (SP+ LIB -8.5)

Projected Score: LIB: 26 - UTEP: 23 (49)
LIB Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 1596 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Miners (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (42 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+9.548.5
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+4
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-2.5
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-8.5
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-18.5
Sat 11/15 Liberty vs Florida International-3
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-2.5
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State-19

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
UTEP's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTEP at Utah State+3.559.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 9/6 UTEP vs UT Martin-7.549.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 UTEP at Texas+39.552.5L 10 - 27UY
Sat 9/20 UTEP vs UL Monroe-5.547.5
Sat 9/27 UTEP vs Louisiana Tech-2.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 UTEP vs Liberty+2.5
Wed 10/15 UTEP at Sam Houston-9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 UTEP at Kennesaw State-9
Sat 11/8 UTEP vs Jacksonville State-8.5
Sat 11/15 UTEP at Missouri State-8.5
Sat 11/22 UTEP vs New Mexico State-9.5
Sat 11/29 UTEP at Delaware+1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#52 (.25)46% (55)21.747% (50)3.16 (49)17744% (66)2423.44 (98)#97 (.19)36% (42)21.341% (78)28% (13)3.73 (73)39.320.7
UTEP#88 (.14)37% (115)22.740% (100)1.86 (134)11635% (112)2234.36 (49)#39 (.04)40% (71)2438% (63)42% (85)3.35 (61)45.31.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
UTEP#121 (.07)37% (124)38% (118)2.8 (106)12136% (117)2002.81 (132)#46 (.13)40% (42)40% (42)39% (46)3.85 (78)50.91.61.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense321.718.545.7%3.442194191772424.653%47%47%44%16%.25
UTEP Defense3241739.8%3.350.7 - - - - - 57%43%38%42%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense321.328.535.8%3.730.7 - - - - - 64%35%41%28%10%.19
UTEP Offense322.74236.9%4.361.3153381162234.243%57%40%35%16%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty330:4019.349%29%4.739.320.73.71.3028.7
UTEP324:0515.330%40%5.745.31.30.79.33.3026.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense353% (55)47% (50)38.31774.63 (95).14 (67)3.16 (49)64% (98)7% (40)0.99 (60)
UTEP Defense357% (112)38% (63) - - - - -.02 (43)2.5 (42)47% (18)13% (32)0.92 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense364% (131)41% (78) - - - - .27 (122)3.05 (98)75% (80)7% (118)1.49 (131)
UTEP Offense343% (114)40% (100)27.7115.74.24 (79).08 (88)1.86 (134)67% (86)11% (100)1.13 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense347% (80)44% (66)17292428.314.26 (34)3 (92).36 (58)1.8 (19)29% (57)37% (36).46 (48)9% (130)2 (66)
UTEP Defense343% (26)42% (85) - - - - - - 1 (87).13 (44)1.4 (38)30% (101)28% (64).11 (32)5% (88)1.4 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense335% (5)28% (13) - - - - - - 1 (87).06 (30)2 (128)37% (35)29% (69).29 (75)3% (118)2.2 (104)
UTEP Offense357% (27)35% (112)20.733.7222.76.610.85 (54)3 (92).21 (87)1.5 (71)28% (46)24% (110).4 (54)5% (60)2.6 (9)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.69 #78
Liberty's Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Liberty's Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.69   UTEP: -4.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -5.4   UTEP: -14.0




UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -4.785 #81
UTEP's Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
UTEP's Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.5
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 26
UTEP 23


Total Points: 49

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Liberty28UTEP10LibertyLiberty -23.5UTEP57.5Under
202311/25UTEP28Liberty42LibertyLiberty -18.0UTEP54.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UTEP021 Overs
Liberty201 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#78) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 0.69 #78
Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Liberty has lost 4 straight
Liberty has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Liberty Notes
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
(3/22) WR bad LY, 2 portal adds. Lots of Sr's
(3/22) OL decent LY, 3/5 back. 3 portals. Looks good
(3/22) Def best in CUSA, returns a ton. 5 portals.
(3/22) Chadwell good coach, LY went south though
(3/22) 3rd year staff, schedule is a joke

Liberty Highlights
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty has a good pass defense (#13)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Liberty gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#132)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUTEPLIB
OverallOver#86#73
OffenseOff#101#58
DefenseDef#74#81
Special TeamsST#73#80
PassingPass#107#65
RushingRush#41#49
Run BlockRBLK#88#71
Pass BlockPBLK#91#100
Route RunningWR Rt#96#34
TacklingTkl#1#98
Run DefenseR Def#76#103
Pass Rush DefPRush#32#76
Coverage DefCov#92#26

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat UTEP last year (28-10)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2023 (42-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | UTEP
Depth Chart: LIB | UTEP
Rosters: LIB | UTEP
(#81) UTEP Info
Power Rating: -4.785 #81
Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102
Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.35 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

UTEP has lost 3 straight
UTEP has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

UTEP Notes
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
(7/24) WR #1 Odom back, depth a ? 6 portals (3 FCS)
(7/24) K Thomas all purpose weapon, All CUSA as PR
(7/12) Last year in CUSA, join MWC in '26
(6/22) Proj #1 CB J Shelton arrested/left UTEP in June
(3/24) RB rebuild. Wilson (Char) a good add
(3/24) OL bad LY, 2/5 back, 2 more with a lot of exp

UTEP Highlights
UTEP is Undefeated at Home
UTEP is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

UTEP Defense Sacks the QB a lot


UTEP Deficiencies
UTEP Can Not Run the Ball (#112)
UTEP offense is really bad (#115)
UTEP Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#123)
UTEP run game is really bad (#100)
UTEP pass game is really bad (#112)
UTEP offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)518659%726638.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)3723026.252
Caden Williams2011705.925
Ethan Vasko (Tr)409012.324
Julian Gray106506.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr8187323.462
Reese Smith1211819.818
Jamari Person (Tr)9106011.820
Julian Gray688114.772

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Joseph Carter141000
Brylan Green131002
Brenton Williams102110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Bazile Jr.92200
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Brenton Williams102110
Damond Harmon71101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brylan Green131002
Eli Hall00001
Kam Cullins20001

UTEP's OC Mark Cala
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Nelson (Tr)609663%665536.9
Skyler Locklear1333%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)14156111.194
Ashten Emory277222.712
Skyler Locklear337012.363
Kam Thomas163602.317
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom19236212.474
Toric Goins Jr.9170118.949
Trevon Tate (Tr)97408.243
Eric Willis III96407.114

View UTEP's Full Roster
UTEP's DC Bobby Daly
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Xavier Smith190010
Joshua Rudolph (Tr)181100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221
Elijah Baldwin123201
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Neil Campbell (Tr)143102
Donte Thompson (Tr)111011
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221