Liberty at UTEP - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at UTEP MinersUTEP logo
Wednesday, October 8th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -1.5 (46.5) (-125)  Open: -3.0
Liberty 19 - UTEP: 8  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Rain Predicted
LIB coming off BYE
UTEP coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -1  (SP+ LIB -8)

Projected Score: LIB: 24 - UTEP: 23 (47)
LIB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LIB Travel: 1596 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (24 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
UTEP's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTEP at Utah State+3.559.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 9/6 UTEP vs UT Martin-7.549.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 UTEP at Texas+39.552.5L 10 - 27UY
Sat 9/20 UTEP vs UL Monroe-5.547.5L 25 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 UTEP vs Louisiana Tech+3.548.5L 11 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 UTEP vs Liberty+1.546.5L 8 - 19UN
Wed 10/15 UTEP vs Sam Houston-3.546.5W 35 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 UTEP at Kennesaw State+12.553.5L 20 - 33UN
Sat 11/8 UTEP vs Jacksonville State+1.546.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UTEP at Missouri State+6.547.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 11/22 UTEP vs New Mexico State-4.044.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 UTEP at Delaware+4.555.5L 31 - 61ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#73 (.17)44% (50)25.647% (39)2.91 (74)19340% (86)1963.68 (73)#101 (.21)42% (69)26.545% (95)39% (41)3.55 (58)55.61.81.2
UTEP#130 (.02)33% (135)23.336% (129)2.14 (133)11631% (135)2163.42 (95)#45 (.11)39% (42)30.437% (14)42% (75)3.85 (88)57.121
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
UTEP#121 (.07)37% (124)38% (118)2.8 (106)12136% (117)2002.81 (132)#46 (.13)40% (42)40% (42)39% (46)3.85 (78)50.91.61.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1225.619.743.9%3.681.8203891931964.658%40%47%40%16%.17
UTEP Defense1230.426.839.3%3.851 - - - - - 54%45%37%42%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1226.525.741.7%3.551.2 - - - - - 54%44%45%39%13%.21
UTEP Offense1223.32433%3.422173321162163.744%54%36%31%19%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1230:3920.340%52%6.255.61.81.24.11.3129.1
UTEP1225:3816.830%54%5.957.1216.82.3128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1258% (13)47% (39)41.71934.625 (99).18 (37)2.91 (74)73% (62)9% (54)0.98 (62)
UTEP Defense1254% (113)37% (14) - - - - .02 (24)2.63 (22)64% (22)11% (33)0.98 (79)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1254% (114)45% (95) - - - - .19 (117)3.18 (115)72% (75)8% (123)1.01 (93)
UTEP Offense1244% (113)36% (129)31.3115.63.714 (99).05 (105)2.14 (133)60% (127)11% (106)1.17 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1240% (123)40% (86)14.526.3195.57.413.511 (114)13 (88).21 (87)1.5 (69)29% (26)31% (67).27 (82)7% (106)2 (83)
UTEP Defense1245% (25)42% (75) - - - - - - 5 (123).24 (64)1.4 (22)32% (51)27% (36).12 (10)5% (110)1.5 (1)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1244% (22)39% (41) - - - - - - 7 (55).25 (68)1.6 (106)31% (80)32% (102).5 (133)6% (76)2.3 (134)
UTEP Offense1254% (27)31% (135)18.734.2216.36.311.621 (61)20 (136).03 (130)1.7 (17)34% (116)24% (125).21 (103)8% (128)2.1 (31)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -7.60  #97
Liberty's Offense Rating: 4.58  #93
Liberty's Defense Rating: 12.18  #96
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.4  #98
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -7.60   UTEP: -8.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -8.4   UTEP: -16.6




UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -8.91  #91
UTEP's Offense Rating: 0.12  #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 6.34  #55
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.6  #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #112
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3  #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 24
UTEP 23


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
UTEP 25
Liberty 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 26
UTEP 25

Total Points: 51
UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/08UTEP8Liberty19Liberty -1.5Liberty46.5Under
202409/14Liberty28UTEP10Liberty -23.5UTEP57.5Under
202311/25UTEP28Liberty42Liberty -18.0UTEP54.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UTEP021 Overs
Liberty312 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 12 - 11 - 11 - 0

(#97) LIB at (#91) UTEP
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBUTEP
Power RatePwr #97 #91
SP+SP+ #98 #129
Perf GradeGrade #67 #126
OffenseOff #60 #131
DefenseDef #83 #106
Spec TeamsST #103 #110
TalentTal #93 #82
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
UTEP Notes
(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUTEP Def
Perf GradePerf #60 #106
SuccessSuc #50 #42
ExplosiveExp #101 #47
PPAPPA #73 #45
PowerPwr #93 #55
SP+SP+ #86 #125
Pts POPPO #73 #88
HavocHav #76 #67
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUTEP Def
Run GameRun #55 #68
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #14
Run ExplRExp #62 #79
PPAExp #37 #24
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #74 #22
Stuff RateStuff #42 #20
TackleTak -  #30
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUTEP Def
Pass GamePass #114 #112
Pass SuccessPSuc #86 #75
Pass ExplPExl #69 #22
PPAExp #87 #64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #97
F7 HavocF7 #54 #33
DB HavocDB #106 #110
UTEP on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatUTEP OffLIB Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #83
SuccessSuc #135 #69
ExplosiveExp #2 #98
PPAPPA #130 #101
PowerPwr #128 #96
SP+SP+ #112 #103
Pts POPPO #95 #58
HavocHav #123 #116
UTEP Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
UTEP OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #96 #99
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #95
Run ExplRExp #5 #93
PPAExp #105 #117
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #115
Stuff RateStuff #124 #89
TackleTak -  #66
UTEP Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatUTEP OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #127 #35
Pass SuccessPSuc #135 #41
Pass ExplPExl #17 #106
PPAExp #130 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #88 #93
F7 HavocF7 #106 #123
DB HavocDB #128 #76
Program Comparison
UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 80° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Liberty 1.5 (46.5)
Liberty won at UTEP this year (19-8)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat UTEP last year (28-10)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2023 (42-28)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Skyler Locklear11721156%141813116.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)10419055%1163896.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashten Emory11956944.856
Skyler Locklear10339683.863
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)4622514.994
Kenny Odom135704.413
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wondame Davis Jr.25604624.275
Kenny Odom6258269.474
Eric Willis III27290210.743
Josh Schuchts21232311.064

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Davey (Tr)1148130
Jayden Wilson (Tr)928160
Xavier Smith602014
Solo Barnes (Tr)592114
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
Kadarion Johnson5510451
Elijah Baldwin236444
Ashaad Hall (Tr)244371
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Content586016
Xavier Smith602014
Solo Barnes (Tr)592114