Liberty at UTEP - 2025 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, October 8th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -1.5 (46.5) (-125) Open: -3.0
Liberty 19 - UTEP: 8 (Conference USA)

Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

LIB coming off BYE
UTEP coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -4.5 (SP+ LIB -8.5)
Projected Score: LIB: 27 - UTEP: 22 (49)
LIB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LIB Travel: 1596 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (24 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
UTEP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Liberty vs Maine	-25.5	51.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-6.0	50.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/13	Liberty at Bowling Green	-6.0	51.5	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/20	Liberty vs James Madison	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/27	Liberty at Old Dominion	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Liberty at UTEP	-1.5	46.5	W 19 - 8	U	Y
Tue 10/14	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Liberty vs Delaware	-3.5	52.5	W 59 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Liberty vs Missouri State	-7.5	51.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Liberty at Florida International	-2.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/22	Liberty at Louisiana Tech	-1.5	45.5	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Liberty vs Kennesaw State	+2.5	55.5	L 42 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

UTEP's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTEP at Utah State	+3.5	59.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/6	UTEP vs UT Martin	-7.5	49.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UTEP at Texas	+39.5	52.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/20	UTEP vs UL Monroe	-5.5	47.5	L 25 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+3.5	48.5	L 11 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	UTEP vs Liberty	+1.5	46.5	L 8 - 19	U	N
Wed 10/15	UTEP vs Sam Houston	-3.5	46.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	UTEP at Kennesaw State	+12.5	53.5	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/8	UTEP vs Jacksonville State	+1.5	46.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTEP at Missouri State	+6.5	47.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/22	UTEP vs New Mexico State	-4.0	44.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	UTEP at Delaware	+4.5	55.5	L 31 - 61	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)	25.6	54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)	26.5	39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	23.3	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	30.4	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	12	25.6	19.7	49.9%	4.21	1.3	22	400	238	161	5.7	63%	36%	54%	43%	14%	.26
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	26.8	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	12	26.5	25.7	39.4%	3.68	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	39%	40%	16%	.1
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	24	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	12	28:42	22.1	45%	50%	6.7	64.4	1.3	1.3	5	1.6	0	28.5
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	12	63% (5)	54% (2)	41.8	238.3	5.7	28 (25)	.25 (16)	3.56 (7)	76% (47)	9% (43)	0.91 (94)
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	12	55% (115)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.02 (20)	2.68 (21)	73% (62)	10% (59)	0.99 (68)
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	12	36% (130)	43% (60)	12.6	22.3	161.2	7.2	12.8	15 (98)	6 (10)	.27 (56)	1.5 (104)	24% (2)	36% (23)	.43 (26)	5% (36)	1.9 (107)
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	12	45% (19)	40% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.21 (51)	1.6 (77)	32% (73)	31% (81)	.18 (17)	6% (82)	1.8 (9)
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -6.14 #82
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75 #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0 #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -6.14 UTEP: -12.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -9.0 UTEP: -17.5

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -12.025 #107
UTEP's Offense Rating: 3.75 #123
UTEP's Defense Rating: 15.30 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.5 #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #111
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 27
UTEP 22

Projected Total Points: 49

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/08	UTEP	8	Liberty	19	Liberty -1.5	Liberty	46.5	Under
2024	09/14	Liberty	28	UTEP	10	Liberty -23.5	UTEP	57.5	Under
2023	11/25	UTEP	28	Liberty	42	Liberty -18.0	UTEP	54.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTEP	0	2	1 Overs
Liberty	3	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#82) LIB at (#107) UTEP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	UTEP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#82	#107
SP+SP+	#102	#129
Perf GradeGrade	#69	#126
OffenseOff	#58	#132
DefenseDef	#79	#102
Spec TeamsST	#104	#101
TalentTal	#93	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#88

Liberty Notes(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report

UTEP Notes(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report

Liberty on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#102
SuccessSuc	#7	#42
ExplosiveExp	#131	#111
PPAPPA	#24	#46
PowerPwr	#88	#83
SP+SP+	#86	#127
Pts POPPO	#43	#78
HavocHav	#33	#34

Liberty Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#75	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#42
Run ExplRExp	#94	#102
PPAExp	#16	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#34
TackleTak	-	#29

Liberty Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#115
PPAExp	#56	#54
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#123
F7 HavocF7	#43	#18
DB HavocDB	#36	#66

UTEP on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#79
SuccessSuc	#124	#39
ExplosiveExp	#125	#67
PPAPPA	#121	#24
PowerPwr	#123	#88
SP+SP+	#111	#103
Pts POPPO	#132	#58
HavocHav	#126	#71

UTEP Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#109	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#30
Run ExplRExp	#114	#68
PPAExp	#118	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#28
TackleTak	-	#76

UTEP Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#77
PPAExp	#108	#51
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#81	#89
F7 HavocF7	#125	#59
DB HavocDB	#110	#82

Program Comparison
UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Liberty 1.5 (46.5)
Liberty won at UTEP this year (19-8)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat UTEP last year (19-8)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2024 (28-10)
Liberty beat UTEP in 2023 (42-28)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	151	266	57%	1961	10	12	7.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)	21	41	51%	350	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)	228	1325	16	5.8	95
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	100	258	5	2.6	24
Caden Williams	56	243	0	4.3	25
Vaughn Blue	47	234	2	5.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donte Lee Jr	32	589	5	18.4	62
Jamari Person (Tr)	28	315	0	11.3	20
Julian Gray	18	218	1	12.1	72
Reese Smith	23	209	1	9.1	23

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)	71	4	1	2	2
Joseph Carter	53	4	0	1	0
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eli Hall	11	5	4	1	3
Brenton Williams	27	4	3	3	0
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2
CJ Bazile Jr.	27	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Brylan Green	39	1	0	0	5
Amarian Williams	29	1	0	1	5

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	104	190	55%	1163	8	9	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashten Emory	119	569	4	4.8	56
Skyler Locklear	103	396	8	3.8	63
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)	46	225	1	4.9	94
Kenny Odom	13	57	0	4.4	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wondame Davis Jr.	25	604	6	24.2	75
Kenny Odom	62	582	6	9.4	74
Eric Willis III	27	290	2	10.7	43
Josh Schuchts	21	232	3	11.0	64

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micah Davey (Tr)	114	8	1	3	0
Jayden Wilson (Tr)	92	8	1	6	0
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)	41	10	5	3	1
Kadarion Johnson	55	10	4	5	1
Elijah Baldwin	23	6	4	4	4
Ashaad Hall (Tr)	24	4	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Content	58	6	0	1	6
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4