Liberty at Bowling Green - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Bowling Green FalconsBowling Green logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -6 (51.5) (-218)  Open: 0.0 | 51.5
Bowling Green 23 - Liberty: 13

 
Flames (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#62)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
LIB 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Liberty -6.5   (SP+ LIB -4)

Projected Score: LIB: 26 - BGSU: 20 (46)
LIB Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
LIB Travel: 366 miles
Falcons (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 18 (25 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+9.548.5
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+4
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-2.5
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-8.5
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-18.5
Sat 11/15 Liberty vs Florida International-3
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-2.5
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State-19

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.053.0W 26 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.546.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.051.5W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+26.551.5
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+17
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-13
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-6
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo+4
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan-4.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-10.5
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-10

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#52 (.25)46% (55)21.747% (50)3.16 (49)17744% (66)2423.44 (98)#97 (.19)36% (42)21.341% (78)28% (13)3.73 (73)39.320.7
BGSU#121 (.06)41% (89)2337% (110)2.91 (77)13846% (53)1763.27 (105)#81 (.16)34% (29)1829% (11)38% (58)3.78 (77)56.701.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)41% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)39% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense321.718.545.7%3.442194191772424.653%47%47%44%16%.25
BGSU Defense3181033.6%3.781.7 - - - - - 50%50%29%38%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense321.328.535.8%3.730.7 - - - - - 64%35%41%28%10%.19
BGSU Offense32324.541.2%3.270183141381763.753%47%37%46%13%.06

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty330:4019.349%29%4.739.320.73.71.3028.7
Bowling Green333:2918.337%50%756.701.772.3133.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense353% (55)47% (50)38.31774.63 (95).14 (67)3.16 (49)64% (98)7% (40)0.99 (60)
BGSU Defense350% (67)29% (11) - - - - -.13 (15)2.35 (31)80% (107)14% (26)0.69 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense364% (131)41% (78) - - - - .27 (122)3.05 (98)75% (80)7% (118)1.49 (131)
BGSU Offense353% (51)37% (110)37.7137.73.73 (95)-.08 (125)2.91 (77)58% (109)11% (100)0.83 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense347% (80)44% (66)17292428.314.26 (34)3 (92).36 (58)1.8 (19)29% (57)37% (36).46 (48)9% (130)2 (66)
BGSU Defense350% (71)38% (58) - - - - - - 2 (56).45 (116)2 (126)32% (83)34% (105).65 (127)3% (125)2.4 (122)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense335% (5)28% (13) - - - - - - 1 (87).06 (30)2 (128)37% (35)29% (69).29 (75)3% (118)2.2 (104)
BGSU Offense347% (82)46% (53)1929176.36.19.32 (102)0 (1).22 (85)1.2 (129)31% (68)30% (81).17 (105)2% (12)1.4 (128)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.69 #78
Liberty's Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Liberty's Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.69   Bowling Green: -8.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -5.4   Bowling Green: -9.6




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -8.83 #112
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 1.39 #126
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 14.46 #99
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.6 #100
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #98

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.5
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 26
Bowling Green 20


Total Points: 46

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.5
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Bowling Green23Liberty13Bowling GreenLiberty -6Bowling Green51.5Under
202309/02Liberty34Bowling Green24LibertyLiberty -8.5Liberty48.5Over
200309/13Bowling Green62Liberty3Bowling Green
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green211 Overs
Liberty111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#78) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 0.69 #78
Offense Rating: 10.53 #79
Defense Rating: 9.85 #80
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Liberty has lost 1 straight
Liberty has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Liberty Notes
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
(3/22) WR bad LY, 2 portal adds. Lots of Sr's
(3/22) OL decent LY, 3/5 back. 3 portals. Looks good
(3/22) Def best in CUSA, returns a ton. 5 portals.
(3/22) Chadwell good coach, LY went south though
(3/22) 3rd year staff, schedule is a joke

Liberty Highlights
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty has a good pass defense (#13)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Liberty gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#132)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBGSULIB
OverallOver#75#73
OffenseOff#86#58
DefenseDef#70#81
Special TeamsST#27#80
PassingPass#76#65
RushingRush#80#49
Run BlockRBLK#77#71
Pass BlockPBLK#51#100
Route RunningWR Rt#87#34
TacklingTkl#15#98
Run DefenseR Def#54#103
Pass Rush DefPRush#47#76
Coverage DefCov#85#26

Rematch from Week 3
Liberty 6.0 (51.5)
Bowling Green won vs Liberty this year (23-13)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Bowling Green in 2023 (34-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | BGSU
Depth Chart: LIB | BGSU
Rosters: LIB | BGSU
(#112) Bowling Green Info
Power Rating: -8.83 #112
Offense Rating: 1.39 #126
Defense Rating: 14.46 #99
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.6 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #98
Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.27 PPO
Poor Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 34%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Great Run Def Success 29%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Bowling Green has lost 1 straight
Bowling Green has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Bowling Green Notes
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
(7/17) OL bad LY, 3/5 back. Interior OK, OT? 1 portal
(4/7) QB Lamson (Stan) left when Loeffler (Eagles)
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. Not many options
(3/26) WR rebuild, TE Fannin out. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def bad LY, replace most. 7 portal adds
(3/26) New HC George 24-22 @ E Tenn St
(3/26) Expect very active portal after spring ball

Bowling Green Highlights
Bowling Green is Undefeated at Home
Bowling Green is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Bowling Green has a really good defense (#29)
Bowling Green has a good run defense (#11)
Bowling Green Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#30)
Bowling Green Front 7 is disruptive (#26)
Bowling Green has a great TO Margin (#1)

Bowling Green Deficiencies
Bowling Green offense is not Explosive (#128)
Bowling Green offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#105)
Bowling Green run game is really bad (#110)
Bowling Green gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#108)


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)518659%726638.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)3723026.252
Caden Williams2011705.925
Ethan Vasko (Tr)409012.324
Julian Gray106506.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr8187323.462
Reese Smith1211819.818
Jamari Person (Tr)9106011.820
Julian Gray688114.772

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Joseph Carter141000
Brylan Green131002
Brenton Williams102110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Bazile Jr.92200
Derrell Farrar (Tr)151110
Brenton Williams102110
Damond Harmon71101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brylan Green131002
Eli Hall00001
Kam Cullins20001

Bowling Green's OC Travis Partridge
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)578567%529206.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaderris Roberts2715205.614
Cameron Pettaway2612404.830
Chris McMillian2610213.914
Mar'Kel Porter81922.46
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)10138113.831
Finn Hogan8114014.324
RJ Garcia II10105010.525
Kaderris Roberts105505.525

View Bowling Green's Full Roster
Bowling Green's DC Brandon Fisher
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dorian Pringle276100
Kal-El Pascal210000
Gideon Lampron (Tr)214111
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)164100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eriq George (Tr)63210
David Afogho102211
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)164100
Myles Bradley11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Key'on Washington (Tr)120002
Collins Acheampong (Tr)00001
Gideon Lampron (Tr)214111