Liberty at Bowling Green - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Bowling Green FalconsBowling Green logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -6 (51.5) (-218)  Open: 0.0 | 51.5
Bowling Green 23 - Liberty: 13

 
Flames (4 - 5) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 22 (16 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
LIB 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Liberty -6.5  (SP+ LIB -9)

Projected Score: LIB: 27 - BGSU: 20 (47)
LIB Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
LIB Travel: 366 miles
Falcons (3 - 7) (4 - 6 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#97)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-4.5
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech+6
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State-4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.053.0W 26 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.546.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.051.5W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+26.550.5L 17 - 40OY
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+7.549.5L 20 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.545.5W 28 - 23OY
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.043.5L 6 - 27UN
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-7.547.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.544.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.049.5L 21 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-2.5
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#71 (.17)43% (65)23.345% (58)3.06 (38)15341% (85)1753.76 (82)#83 (.16)41% (62)22.446% (115)35% (19)3.13 (23)40.71.31.3
BGSU#131 (.03)36% (127)18.537% (123)2.89 (59)13234% (132)1423.07 (122)#79 (.15)41% (73)25.838% (29)45% (110)3.48 (50)52.41.11.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)41% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)39% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense923.315.843.1%3.761.3173291531754.458%41%45%41%16%.17
BGSU Defense1025.819.641.4%3.481.2 - - - - - 56%43%38%45%18%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense922.421.541%3.131.3 - - - - - 53%46%46%35%14%.16
BGSU Offense1018.517.235.7%3.071.1152741321423.956%43%37%34%18%.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty927:1016.837%56%4.840.71.31.33.81.2129.7
Bowling Green1028:1615.137%27%6.252.41.11.25.51.5128.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense958% (19)45% (58)35153.34.414 (99).15 (47)3.06 (38)60% (128)9% (71)1 (51)
BGSU Defense1056% (122)38% (29) - - - - .05 (52)2.75 (68)61% (20)13% (12)1.06 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense953% (97)46% (115) - - - - .19 (120)3.15 (118)71% (68)8% (114)0.97 (72)
BGSU Offense1056% (26)37% (123)34.4132.43.98 (119).04 (101)2.89 (59)54% (135)11% (114)0.96 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense941% (119)41% (85)13.222.9175.47.713.38 (114)6 (88).21 (88)1.5 (77)28% (27)31% (63).31 (74)6% (85)1.8 (111)
BGSU Defense1043% (15)45% (110) - - - - - - 5 (75).29 (95)1.5 (74)31% (78)30% (74).27 (68)5% (92)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense946% (40)35% (19) - - - - - - 6 (55).15 (40)1.6 (90)32% (68)31% (83).41 (115)6% (59)2.2 (121)
BGSU Offense1043% (112)34% (132)13.923.5142610.28 (106)9 (119).02 (132)1.5 (86)35% (121)24% (125).22 (99)6% (75)2 (52)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -3.70  #84
Liberty's Offense Rating: 4.88  #98
Liberty's Defense Rating: 8.58  #79
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #100
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -3.70   Bowling Green: -12.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -7.2   Bowling Green: -16.1




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -12.16  #123
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: -0.76  #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 12.46  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.1  #124
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2  #131
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #102

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.5

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 27
Bowling Green 20


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 23
Liberty 22

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 21
Bowling Green 20

Total Points: 41
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Bowling Green23Liberty13Liberty -6Bowling Green51.5Under
202309/02Liberty34Bowling Green24Liberty -8.5Liberty48.5Over
200309/13Bowling Green62Liberty3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green211 Overs
Liberty111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#84) LIB at (#123) BGSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBBGSU
Power RatePwr #84 #123
SP+SP+ #100 #124
Perf GradeGrade #65 #107
OffenseOff #55 #106
DefenseDef #82 #104
Spec TeamsST #120 #126
TalentTal #93 #112
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Liberty Notes
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
(3/22) WR bad LY, 2 portal adds. Lots of Sr's
Liberty Injury Report
Bowling Green Notes
(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
LIB OffBGSU Def
Perf GradePerf #55 #104
SuccessSuc #65 #73
ExplosiveExp #99 #92
PPAPPA #71 #79
PowerPwr #98 #95
SP+SP+ #105 #102
Pts POPPO #82 #50
HavocHav #75 #28
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
LIB OffBGSU Def
Run GameRun #54 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #29
Run ExplRExp #51 #109
PPAExp #47 #52
Run BlockR Blk #75 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #68
Stuff RateStuff #70 #13
TackleTak -  #46
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
LIB OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePass #77 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #110
Pass ExplPExl #77 #74
PPAExp #88 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #56
F7 HavocF7 #71 #12
DB HavocDB #85 #92
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBGSU OffLIB Def
Perf GradePerf #106 #82
SuccessSuc #127 #62
ExplosiveExp #93 #72
PPAPPA #131 #83
PowerPwr #133 #79
SP+SP+ #131 #80
Pts POPPO #122 #23
HavocHav #102 #98
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #87 #124
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #115
Run ExplRExp #65 #72
PPAExp #101 #120
Run BlockR Blk #58 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #118
Stuff RateStuff #103 #87
TackleTak -  #42
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBGSU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #115 #23
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #19
Pass ExplPExl #86 #90
PPAExp #132 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #91 #97
F7 HavocF7 #114 #114
DB HavocDB #75 #59
Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Liberty 6.0 (51.5)
Bowling Green won vs Liberty this year (23-13)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Bowling Green in 2023 (34-24)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)12621459%1602867.5
Michael Merdinger (Tr)92045%138006.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)12772495.772
Caden Williams5624304.325
Ethan Vasko (Tr)8421952.624
Vaughn Blue3818114.822
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr26493419.062
Jamari Person (Tr)22251011.420
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith1918419.723

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter534010
Derrell Farrar (Tr)492112
Damond Harmon383105
Elijah Auguste312000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall84403
Brenton Williams204320
Christian Bodnar252201
CJ Bazile Jr.204210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon383105
Dexter Ricks Jr.181004
Amarian Williams191014

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)9415162%882455.8
Lucian Anderson III264163%245236.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris McMillian8434234.133
Austyn Dendy (Tr)5926834.519
Cameron Pettaway5024805.030
Kaderris Roberts4821504.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)32383212.031
RJ Garcia II26278010.728
Finn Hogan13183014.124
Jacob Harris1514749.838

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)10014241
Kal-El Pascal693004
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)505110
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)460004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley135450
David Afogho334361
Eriq George (Tr)223230
Gideon Lampron (Tr)10014241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)160008
Kal-El Pascal693004
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)460004