Liberty at Bowling Green - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -6 (51.5) (-218) Open: 0.0 | 51.5
Bowling Green 23 - Liberty: 13

Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 5)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

LIB 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Liberty -3 (SP+ LIB -5)
Projected Score: LIB: 26 - BGSU: 23 (48)
LIB Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
LIB Travel: 366 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Liberty vs Maine	-25.5	51.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-6.0	50.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/13	Liberty at Bowling Green	-6.0	51.5	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/20	Liberty vs James Madison	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/27	Liberty at Old Dominion	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Liberty at UTEP	-1.5	46.5	W 19 - 8	U	Y
Tue 10/14	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Liberty vs Delaware	-3.5	52.5	W 59 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Liberty vs Missouri State	-7.5	51.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Liberty at Florida International	-2.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/22	Liberty at Louisiana Tech	-1.5	45.5	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Liberty vs Kennesaw State	+2.5	55.5	L 42 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Bowling Green vs Lafayette	-21.0	53.0	W 26 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Bowling Green at Cincinnati	+21.5	46.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Bowling Green vs Liberty	+6.0	51.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Bowling Green at Louisville	+26.5	50.5	L 17 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Bowling Green at Ohio	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	45.5	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Bowling Green vs Central Michigan	-3.0	43.5	L 6 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/25	Bowling Green at Kent State	-7.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/8	Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan	+3.0	49.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18	Bowling Green vs Akron	-2.5	47.5	L 16 - 19	U	N
Tue 11/25	Bowling Green at Massachusetts	-14.0	44.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	#73 (.17)	44% (50)	25.6	47% (39)	2.91 (74)	193	40% (86)	196	3.68 (73)	#101 (.21)	42% (69)	26.5	45% (95)	39% (41)	3.55 (58)	55.6	1.8	1.2
BGSU	#128 (.02)	36% (128)	20.5	37% (125)	2.88 (80)	156	35% (124)	151	3.19 (117)	#62 (.15)	41% (56)	24.3	39% (38)	42% (68)	3.44 (51)	61	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)		54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)		39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	12	25.6	19.7	43.9%	3.68	1.8	20	389	193	196	4.6	58%	40%	47%	40%	16%	.17
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	19.5	40.6%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	42%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	12	26.5	25.7	41.7%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	45%	39%	13%	.21
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	17	35.6%	3.19	1.2	17	307	156	151	4	58%	40%	37%	35%	16%	.02

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	12	30:39	20.3	40%	52%	6.2	55.6	1.8	1.2	4.1	1.3	1	29.1
Bowling Green	12	31:18	16.6	37%	42%	6.7	61	1.2	1.3	6.2	1.8	1	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	12	58% (13)	47% (39)	41.7	193	4.6	25 (99)	.18 (37)	2.91 (74)	73% (62)	9% (54)	0.98 (62)
BGSU Defense	12	53% (106)	39% (38)	-	-	-	-	.06 (50)	2.74 (41)	59% (8)	13% (9)	1.06 (115)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	12	54% (114)	45% (95)	-	-	-	-	.19 (117)	3.18 (115)	72% (75)	8% (123)	1.01 (93)
BGSU Offense	12	58% (14)	37% (125)	39.3	155.5	4	13 (119)	.03 (112)	2.88 (80)	58% (133)	10% (94)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	12	40% (123)	40% (86)	14.5	26.3	195.5	7.4	13.5	11 (114)	13 (88)	.21 (87)	1.5 (69)	29% (26)	31% (67)	.27 (82)	7% (106)	2 (83)
BGSU Defense	12	46% (34)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.28 (82)	1.6 (96)	33% (49)	31% (84)	.32 (79)	7% (41)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	12	44% (22)	39% (41)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (55)	.25 (68)	1.6 (106)	31% (80)	32% (102)	.5 (133)	6% (76)	2.3 (134)
BGSU Offense	12	40% (122)	35% (124)	13.8	23.8	151.3	6.4	10.9	13 (106)	12 (119)	.07 (129)	1.6 (49)	34% (110)	25% (121)	.19 (112)	6% (68)	2.1 (50)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -7.60 #97
Liberty's Offense Rating: 4.58 #93
Liberty's Defense Rating: 12.18 #96
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.4 #98
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.9 #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -7.60 Bowling Green: -10.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -8.4 Bowling Green: -13.2

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -10.805 #122
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: -0.76 #132
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 12.65 #99
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.2 #115
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.8 #129
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #82

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 26
Bowling Green 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 23
Liberty 22

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Bowling Green 23
Liberty 22

Total Points: 45

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Bowling Green	23	Liberty	13	Liberty -6	Bowling Green	51.5	Under
2023	09/02	Liberty	34	Bowling Green	24	Liberty -8.5	Liberty	48.5	Over
2003	09/13	Bowling Green	62	Liberty	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	2	1	1 Overs
Liberty	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#97) LIB at (#122) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	BGSU
Power RatePwr	#97	#122
SP+SP+	#98	#115
Perf GradeGrade	#67	#102
OffenseOff	#60	#106
DefenseDef	#83	#99
Spec TeamsST	#103	#80
TalentTal	#93	#112
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Liberty Notes(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report

Liberty on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#60	#99
SuccessSuc	#50	#56
ExplosiveExp	#101	#105
PPAPPA	#73	#62
PowerPwr	#93	#99
SP+SP+	#86	#82
Pts POPPO	#73	#51
HavocHav	#76	#14

Liberty Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#55	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#38
Run ExplRExp	#62	#115
PPAExp	#37	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#42	#8
TackleTak	-	#55

Liberty Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#96
PPAExp	#87	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#49
F7 HavocF7	#54	#9
DB HavocDB	#106	#41

Bowling Green on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
Perf GradePerf	#106	#83
SuccessSuc	#128	#69
ExplosiveExp	#83	#98
PPAPPA	#128	#101
PowerPwr	#132	#96
SP+SP+	#129	#103
Pts POPPO	#117	#58
HavocHav	#79	#116

Bowling Green Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#98	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#125	#95
Run ExplRExp	#75	#93
PPAExp	#112	#117
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#89
TackleTak	-	#66

Bowling Green Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#132	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	#124	#41
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#106
PPAExp	#129	#68
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#93
F7 HavocF7	#94	#123
DB HavocDB	#68	#76

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Liberty 6.0 (51.5)
Bowling Green won vs Liberty this year (23-13)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Bowling Green in 2023 (34-24)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	151	266	57%	1961	10	12	7.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)	21	41	51%	350	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)	228	1325	16	5.8	95
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	100	258	5	2.6	24
Caden Williams	56	243	0	4.3	25
Vaughn Blue	47	234	2	5.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donte Lee Jr	32	589	5	18.4	62
Jamari Person (Tr)	28	315	0	11.3	20
Julian Gray	18	218	1	12.1	72
Reese Smith	23	209	1	9.1	23

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)	71	4	1	2	2
Joseph Carter	53	4	0	1	0
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eli Hall	11	5	4	1	3
Brenton Williams	27	4	3	3	0
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2
CJ Bazile Jr.	27	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Brylan Green	39	1	0	0	5
Amarian Williams	29	1	0	1	5

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)	94	151	62%	882	4	5	5.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)	33	66	50%	473	5	4	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)	108	493	5	4.6	24
Cameron Pettaway	72	365	0	5.1	34
Chris McMillian	84	342	3	4.1	33
Kaderris Roberts	48	215	0	4.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)	37	466	2	12.6	38
RJ Garcia II	27	283	0	10.5	28
Finn Hogan	13	183	0	14.1	24
Jacob Harris	19	182	5	9.6	38

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	0	5
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)	57	6	2	1	1
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Bradley	20	6	5	7	0
Eriq George (Tr)	26	5	4	2	0
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
David Afogho	37	4	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)	22	0	0	13
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	7
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	5