Liberty at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Liberty -1.5 (45.5) (-120)  Open: -1.5 | 45.5
Louisiana Tech 34 - Liberty: 28  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
LIB 2nd straight Road Game
LT is playing their 5th straight game
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -2  (SP+ LT -8)

Projected Score: LIB: 23 - LT: 25 (48)
LIB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LIB Travel: 832 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.557.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.043.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.545.5W 34 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.545.0W 42 - 30OY
Tue 12/30 Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.051.0W 23 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)25.654% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)26.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)27.337% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)20.839% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1225.619.749.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26
LT Defense1320.817.337.2%3.721.2 - - - - - 56%43%39%35%15%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1226.525.739.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
LT Offense1327.336.537.5%3.091.5173191092113.149%51%37%38%17%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Louisiana Tech1329:3417.240%35%4.946.71.51.25.21.6033.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)
LT Defense1356% (121)39% (36) - - - - .09 (54)2.9 (50)70% (48)11% (52)1.01 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
LT Offense1349% (78)37% (122)35.2108.53.114 (98)-.09 (134)2.62 (125)66% (114)12% (116)0.69 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)
LT Defense1343% (9)35% (11) - - - - - - 5 (117).15 (26)1.6 (72)35% (20)29% (46).28 (56)5% (112)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
LT Offense1351% (56)38% (111)18.829.8210.97.111.218 (68)7 (26).13 (115)1.7 (35)33% (103)26% (117).15 (127)5% (22)2.1 (27)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -6.14  #81
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75  #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -6.14   Louisiana Tech: -5.565

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -9.0   Louisiana Tech: -1.3




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -5.565  #118
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 4.42  #119
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 19.25  #99
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3  #77
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 25
Liberty 23


Projected Total Points: 48
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Louisiana Tech34Liberty28Liberty -1.5Louisiana Tech45.5Over
202311/04Liberty56Louisiana Tech30Liberty -16.5Liberty58.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech112 Overs
Liberty110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#81) LIB at (#118) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBLT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #81 #118
SP+SP+ #102 #77
Perf GradeGrade #69 #83
OffenseOff #58 #108
DefenseDef #79 #37
Spec TeamsST #104 #32
TalentTal #93 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffLT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #37
SuccessSuc #7 #13
ExplosiveExp #131 #57
PPAPPA #24 #26
PowerPwr #88 #99
SP+SP+ #86 #68
Pts POPPO #43 #61
HavocHav #33 #76
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffLT Def
Run GameRun #75 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #36
Run ExplRExp #94 #82
PPAExp #16 #54
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #50
Stuff RateStuff #9 #41
TackleTak -  #80
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #109 #25
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #11
Pass ExplPExl #104 #72
PPAExp #56 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #108
F7 HavocF7 #43 #52
DB HavocDB #36 #112
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffLIB Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #108 #79
SuccessSuc #119 #39
ExplosiveExp #113 #67
PPAPPA #130 #24
PowerPwr #119 #87
SP+SP+ #77 #103
Pts POPPO #124 #58
HavocHav #83 #71
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #33 #93
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #30
Run ExplRExp #134 #68
PPAExp #134 #20
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #21
Stuff RateStuff #119 #28
TackleTak -  #76
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #120 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #66
Pass ExplPExl #35 #77
PPAExp #115 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #67 #89
F7 HavocF7 #116 #59
DB HavocDB #22 #82
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Liberty 1.5 (45.5)
Louisiana Tech won vs Liberty this year (34-28)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat Liberty last year (34-28)
Liberty beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (56-30)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker10215566%1252538.1
Trey Kukuk6710663%644346.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin13163484.850
Trey Kukuk9860956.258
Andrew Burnette9448695.298
Omiri Wiggins9746844.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley38445011.773
Marlion Jackson20370218.552
Devin Gandy (Tr)21366217.442
Clay Thevenin3326908.230

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields903015
Mekhi Mason6215434
Jadon Mayfield619451
Sifa Leota5812478
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Mayfield619451
Sifa Leota5812478
Mekhi Mason6215434
Donovan Rieman295301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.472009
Sifa Leota5812478
Cedric Woods341018