Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee Game Matchup
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" - Murfreesboro, TN  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (25 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
SHSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -2   (SP+ SHSU -5.5)

Projected Score: SHSU: 24 - MTSU: 26 (48)
MTSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
SHSU Travel: 637 miles
Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/22 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+7.50.0
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.50.0
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Sam Houston at Texas+48.5
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+1
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State-4.5
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+3.5
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+16.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware-2
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+2
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International-0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-6
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+27.5
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+2.5
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall-2
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State-0.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+3.5
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State-4
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+0
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+8.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-2
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)23.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)20.547% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)18.138% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)34.350% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1323.824.639.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1
MTSU Defense1234.332.849.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1320.523.641.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
MTSU Offense1218.120.339.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -23.45 #132
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 3.00 #126
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 26.45 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 396.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -23.45   Middle Tennessee: -15.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -11.1   Middle Tennessee: -16.4




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -15.08 #118
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Sam Houston 24


Projected Total Points: 48
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.3
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.8

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25Sam Houston23Middle Tennessee20Sam HoustonMiddle Tennessee -3.5Sam Houston49.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee000 Overs
Sam Houston111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#132) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.45 #132
Offense Rating: 3.00 #126
Defense Rating: 26.45 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90
Talent Rating: 396.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Sam Houston Notes
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. 2 portals inc. Green (IU)
(3/26) WR some exp, replacing a lot. 2 portal adds
(3/26) OL returns 6 w/ starting exp. Good rush LY
(3/26) Def awful, returns little. 9 portals, 5 DBs
(3/26) HC Longo interesting hire. Bad OC fit @ Wisc
(3/26) OC Patterson was SHSU RB coach past 2 yrs
Sam Houston     Ratings Matchup     Middle Tennessee
Power #132
#118
Off #126
#104
Def #127
#128
Talent #125
#120
SP+ #107
#125
SP+ Off #118
#130
SP+ Def #90
#107

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (23-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | MTSU
Depth Chart: SHSU | MTSU
Rosters: SHSU | MTSU
(#118) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.08 #118
Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Middle Tennessee Notes
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) QB Vattiato back, good, 3K LY. Must limit TOs
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl


  
Sam Houston's OC Zack Patterson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)11100%2002.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hunter Watson15262374.146
Elijah Green (Tr)2920156.951
Qua'Vez Humphreys32107.010
Alton McCaskill (Tr)71702.46
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Michael Phoenix II13205315.850
Malik Phillips225012.513
Shane Johnson21407.07

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Cecil Powell (Tr)241001
Chatavies Johnson151000
Emon Allen122001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Grady O'Neill (Tr)20000
AJ Edwards10001
Gannon Tullos10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
AJ Edwards10001
Emon Allen122001

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato26941864%309216107.4
Roman Gagliano4944%41004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Jekail Middlebrook6027324.624
Nick Vattiato867710.916
Roman Gagliano2502.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Butler30366312.261
Cam'Ron Lacy2019009.544
Jekail Middlebrook2216317.424
Gamarion Carter12123010.327

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes692010
Anthony Bynum607311
Shakai Woods424110
Brandon Buckner374350
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner374350
Anthony Bynum607311
Aidan Butts102202
Damonte Smith254231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Butts102202
Abdul Muhammad120002
Damonte Smith254231