Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo   Sam Houston Bearkats at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders  Middle Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Middle Tennessee -6.5 (53.5) (-245)  Open: -4.5
Middle Tennessee 31 - Sam Houston: 17  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
SHSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -15  (SP+ MTSU -12)

Projected Score: SHSU: 20 - MTSU: 35 (54)
MTSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SHSU Travel: 637 miles
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.556.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.553.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.550.5L 16 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 3

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 6

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)17.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)37.847% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)22.438% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)30.950% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1317.815.139.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1
MTSU Defense1230.932.549.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1337.83941.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
MTSU Offense1222.42439.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -25.75  #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 1.86  #130
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.61  #137
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.8  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #129
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -25.75   Middle Tennessee: -11.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.8   Middle Tennessee: -16.0




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -11.79  #111
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44  #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02  #122
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 35
Sam Houston 20


Projected Total Points: 54
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Middle Tennessee31Sam Houston17Middle Tennessee -6.5Middle Tennessee53.5Under
202311/25Sam Houston23Middle Tennessee20Middle Tennessee -3.5Sam Houston49.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee110 Overs
Sam Houston112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#136) SHSU at (#111) MTSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUMTSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #136 #111
SP+SP+ #135 #127
Perf GradeGrade #134 #114
OffenseOff #135 #122
DefenseDef #128 #72
Spec TeamsST #47 #131
TalentTal #121 #124
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffMTSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #135 #72
SuccessSuc #107 #130
ExplosiveExp #127 #71
PPAPPA #115 #129
PowerPwr #130 #122
SP+SP+ #129 #128
Pts POPPO #129 #126
HavocHav #53 #108
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #122 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #124
Run ExplRExp #98 #59
PPAExp #83 #107
Run BlockR Blk #125 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #97
Stuff RateStuff #34 #62
TackleTak -  #26
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #122 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #127
Pass ExplPExl #106 #90
PPAExp #114 #129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #83 #75
F7 HavocF7 #69 #100
DB HavocDB #47 #101
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffSHSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #122 #128
SuccessSuc #105 #70
ExplosiveExp #53 #3
PPAPPA #107 #31
PowerPwr #91 #137
SP+SP+ #110 #135
Pts POPPO #128 #75
HavocHav #113 #58
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #86 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #105
Run ExplRExp #62 #9
PPAExp #110 #92
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #119
Stuff RateStuff #125 #129
TackleTak -  #122
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #52 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #27
Pass ExplPExl #102 #9
PPAExp #95 #6
Pass Block/RushP Blk #128 #125
F7 HavocF7 #100 #56
DB HavocDB #112 #58
Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Middle Tennessee -6.5 (53.5)
Middle Tennessee won vs Sam Houston this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Sam Houston last year (31-17)
Sam Houston beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (23-20)

  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Landyn Locke7114150%765445.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown8448755.863
Elijah Green (Tr)5839126.780
Alton McCaskill (Tr)8837114.252
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed30460515.354
Grady O'Neill (Tr)38392110.329
Landan Brown3723706.424
Tim Burns Jr.12228119.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)786110
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Tyler Bailey451102
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)269550
Chauncey Chidi314300
Dean Ford326220
Dylan Frazier414222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emon Allen404005
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
AJ Edwards413114

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004