Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kennesaw State OwlsKennesaw State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Kennesaw State -7 (54.5) (-250)  Open: -7.0
Kennesaw State 24 - Middle Tennessee: 16  (Conference USA)

 
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
KENN 3rd straight Home Game
KENN is playing their 5th straight game
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Kennesaw State -14  (SP+ KENN -15)

Projected Score: MTSU: 19 - KENN: 33 (52)
KENN Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MTSU Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs behind
Owls (10 - 4) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Mack (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (31 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Kennesaw State at Wake Forest+17.551.5L 9 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Kennesaw State at Indiana+35.551.5L 9 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Kennesaw State vs Merrimack-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/20 Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State+4.557.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 9/27 Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee-7.054.5W 24 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech+4.546.5W 35 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Kennesaw State at Florida International-3.048.5W 45 - 26OY
Tue 10/28 Kennesaw State vs UTEP-12.553.5W 33 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 Kennesaw State at New Mexico State-11.552.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.556.5L 26 - 35ON
Sat 11/22 Kennesaw State vs Missouri State-6.554.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 11/29 Kennesaw State at Liberty-2.555.5W 48 - 42OY
Fri 12/5 Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.062.5W 19 - 15UY
Fri 12/19 Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan+3.047.0L 6 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kennesaw State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (60)22.445% (56)2.92 (72)10642% (63)2653.2 (116)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (57)48% (131)4.03 (104)67.711.3
KENN#72 (.17)41% (86)26.742% (88)2.82 (93)16042% (66)2432.95 (126)#66 (.16)42% (74)25.544% (86)41% (65)3.57 (61)66.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
KENN#134 (-.04)31% (133)31% (134)2.16 (134)11632% (129)1363.5 (103)#93 (.21)46% (114)45% (91)48% (122)4.15 (102)46.31.51



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1222.420.843%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16
KENN Defense1425.518.542.1%3.571.1 - - - - - 53%46%44%41%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1230.929.344.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
KENN Offense1426.731.341.3%2.951.3224031602434.253%45%42%42%15%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Kennesaw State1428:0621.540%59%7.566.81.31.16.42.2129
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (85)2.92 (72)65% (110)9% (60)0.88 (104)
KENN Defense1453% (104)44% (86) - - - - .16 (100)2.97 (83)69% (52)11% (43)1.03 (104)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1250% (64)41% (57) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (19)66% (30)10% (68)0.83 (11)
KENN Offense1453% (43)42% (88)38.6160.14.220 (107).11 (73)2.82 (93)80% (18)10% (77)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (63)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (89)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (82).3 (71)9% (134)1.9 (99)
KENN Defense1446% (41)41% (65) - - - - - - 9 (100).19 (48)1.4 (21)30% (89)25% (14).19 (28)6% (59)2.2 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1248% (62)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (125)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (101).33 (90)6% (59)1.9 (37)
KENN Offense1445% (98)42% (66)18.630.2243.1813.126 (86)11 (7).33 (43)1.7 (18)33% (103)32% (54).39 (38)6% (50)2.2 (21)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -14.46  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 4.63  #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 19.09  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #111
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -14.46   Kennesaw State: -1.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.3   Kennesaw State: -1.2




Kennesaw State's Power Ratings
Kennesaw State's Power Rating: -1.58  #95
Kennesaw State's Offense Rating: 6.77  #81
Kennesaw State's Defense Rating: 13.73  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 358.00  #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Kennesaw State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Kennesaw State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #78
Kennesaw State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #64
Kennesaw State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Kennesaw State 33
Middle Tennessee 19


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Kennesaw State 26
Middle Tennessee 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Kennesaw State 30
Middle Tennessee 22

Total Points: 52
Kennesaw State Scoring
Offense: 26.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 25.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Kennesaw State's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Kennesaw State24Middle Tennessee16Kennesaw State -7Kennesaw State54.5Under
202410/15Middle Tennessee14Kennesaw State5Middle Tennessee -8.5Middle Tennessee50.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kennesaw State110 Overs
Middle Tennessee112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#127) MTSU at (#95) KENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUKENN
Power RatePwr #127 #95
SP+SP+ #127 #78
Perf GradeGrade #115 #94
OffenseOff #116 #85
DefenseDef #85 #77
Spec TeamsST #129 #123
TalentTal #124 #129
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Kennesaw State Notes
(12/6) CUSA champs, cannot overstate job Mack did
(12/3) Owls have major injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat Liberty in 2 OT. Owls will play Jax St in CUSA Title
(10/29) Even game vs UTEP, Off awful, Def & STs saved
(10/29) 300 yds and 3-14 on 3rd down vs UTEP? Still W
(10/22) HC Mack & staff incredible job. Current CUSA fav
(10/22) QB Amari Odom went down vs FIU, monitor
(10/21) RB Coleman Bennett has real speed, good weapon
(10/9) So QB Amari Odom taken QB1 job, been much better
(9/24) Run Def held Ark St to 92 yds, Pass Def was OK
(9/20) Huge W vs Ark St, QB Odom a revelation 300+
(8/16) QB D. Williams (GSU) will start, S Williams #2
Kennesaw State Injury Report
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKENN Def
Perf GradePerf #116 #77
SuccessSuc #60 #74
ExplosiveExp #86 #50
PPAPPA #78 #66
PowerPwr #92 #103
SP+SP+ #111 #82
Pts POPPO #116 #61
HavocHav #115 #45
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKENN Def
Run GameRun #82 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #86
Run ExplRExp #104 #104
PPAExp #85 #100
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #83
Stuff RateStuff #116 #68
TackleTak -  #85
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKENN Def
Pass GamePass #45 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #63 #65
Pass ExplPExl #116 #21
PPAExp #89 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #124 #51
F7 HavocF7 #60 #43
DB HavocDB #134 #59
Kennesaw State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatKENN OffMTSU Def
Perf GradePerf #85 #85
SuccessSuc #86 #108
ExplosiveExp #23 #83
PPAPPA #72 #108
PowerPwr #81 #128
SP+SP+ #64 #128
Pts POPPO #126 #104
HavocHav #61 #67
Kennesaw State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
KENN OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #83 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #88 #57
Run ExplRExp #45 #11
PPAExp #73 #35
Run BlockR Blk #130 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #19
Stuff RateStuff #105 #14
TackleTak -  #29
Kennesaw State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatKENN OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #49 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #131
Pass ExplPExl #18 #100
PPAExp #43 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #92 #80
F7 HavocF7 #77 #68
DB HavocDB #50 #59
Program Comparison
KENN 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fifth Third Bank Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 83°
Rematch from Week 5
Kennesaw State -7.0 (54.5)
Kennesaw State won vs Middle Tennessee this year (24-16)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Kennesaw State last year (14-5)

  
MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004

KENN's OC Mitch Militello (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Amari Odom18929165%25941988.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)6712554%787636.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Coleman Bennett (Tr)15776444.930
Chase Belcher (Tr)10756625.346
Amari Odom12034772.924
Alexander Diggs7228123.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gabriel Benyard60949915.854
Christian Moss44682215.570
Coleman Bennett (Tr)27314311.676
Clayton Coppock28311511.155

View Kennesaw State's Full Roster

KENN's DC Marc Mattioli (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Baron Hopson13910126
Tywon Christopher815212
Isaac Paul570002
Milon Jones533011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Hill2212960
Tylon Dunlap4011511
Donovan Westmoreland356411
Kody Jones (Tr)297243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Offord (Tr)4770012
JeRico Washington Jr.4321010
Baron Hopson13910126