Marshall at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Marshall logo Marshall Thundering Herd at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Marshall -2.5 (46.5) (-142)  Open: -4.5
Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" - Murfreesboro, TN

 
Thundering Herd (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tony Gibson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (7 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
MRSH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Marshall -6   (SP+ MRSH -13.5)

Projected Score: MRSH: 26 - MTSU: 20 (47)
MRSH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MRSH Travel: 281 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Blue Raiders (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 13 - 30 (14 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Marshall at Georgia+39.555.5L 7 - 45UY
Sat 9/6 Marshall vs Missouri State-7.053.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky-14.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Marshall at Middle Tennessee-2.546.5
Sat 9/27 Marshall at Louisiana+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Marshall vs Old Dominion+10.5
Sat 10/18 Marshall vs Texas State+9.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 Marshall at Coastal Carolina+2
Sat 11/8 Marshall vs James Madison+14.5
Sat 11/15 Marshall at Georgia State-4.5
Sat 11/22 Marshall at App State+6
Sat 11/29 Marshall vs Georgia Southern-7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+5.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+16
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+6.5
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+11.5
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+20.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston+1
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MRSH#126 (-)27% (136)21.729% (133)2.35 (120)17621% (134)1093.4 (101)#122 (.33)45% (108)24.345% (98)47% (109)5 (121)52.30.71
MTSU#127 (-.01)36% (119)12.741% (88)2.86 (83)6133% (119)1881.89 (129)#120 (.29)42% (86)29.736% (45)51% (123)4.58 (109)41.70.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MRSH#60 (.21)43% (66)45% (47)3.35 (18)20340% (88)1813.93 (66)#47 (.13)40% (46)43% (75)37% (21)3.87 (79)42.50.71.5
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MRSH Offense321.7726.9%3.40.7132841761094.462%36%29%21%15%-
MTSU Defense329.73442.4%4.581.3 - - - - - 58%42%36%51%16%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MRSH Defense324.34545.3%51 - - - - - 51%48%45%47%16%.33
MTSU Offense312.71436%1.890.717249611882.337%61%41%33%17%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Marshall328:021327%25%6.352.30.718.33.7024.1
Middle Tennessee327:1716.728%29%541.70.71.37.32031
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MRSH Offense362% (13)29% (133)40175.74.46 (49)-.08 (128)2.35 (120)0% (136)8% (58)0.67 (128)
MTSU Defense358% (118)36% (45) - - - - .1 (83)2.95 (86)86% (112)12% (42)1.02 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MRSH Defense351% (79)45% (98) - - - - .1 (88)2.68 (57)67% (53)11% (56)1.07 (94)
MTSU Offense337% (129)41% (88)26.760.72.31 (127)-.06 (122)2.86 (83)40% (133)11% (99)0.99 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MRSH Offense336% (126)21% (134)10.719.7108.75.510.22 (102)1 (23).09 (118)2 (5)36% (116)11% (136).09 (118)7% (104)3.3 (1)
MTSU Defense342% (21)51% (123) - - - - - - 3 (28).56 (127)1.7 (113)35% (42)34% (104).47 (110)4% (110)2.1 (95)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MRSH Defense348% (56)47% (109) - - - - - - 3 (28).57 (128)1.9 (124)34% (60)35% (106).34 (90)5% (88)1.9 (63)
MTSU Offense361% (9)33% (119)21.33818858.84 (72)2 (60).04 (124)1.5 (83)35% (111)29% (90).38 (59)7% (104)2.2 (44)

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -17.69 #123
Marshall's Offense Rating: 1.93 #123
Marshall's Defense Rating: 19.62 #118
2025 Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Marshall's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Marshall's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Marshall: -17.69   Middle Tennessee: -19.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Marshall: -9.3   Middle Tennessee: -23.0




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Marshall Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Marshall's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Marshall 26
Middle Tennessee 20


Total Points: 47

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 12.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202110/02Middle Tennessee34Marshall28Middle TennesseeMarshall -11Middle Tennessee66.0Under
202011/14Marshall42Middle Tennessee14MarshallMarshall -23.5Marshall55.5Over
201910/05Middle Tennessee24Marshall13Middle TennesseeMarshall -5Middle Tennessee53.5Under
201810/05Marshall24Middle Tennessee34Middle TennesseeMarshall -3Middle Tennessee50.5Over
201710/20Middle Tennessee10Marshall38MarshallMarshall -1.5Marshall49.0Under
201611/12Marshall42Middle Tennessee17MarshallMiddle Tennessee -11.5Marshall60.0Under
201511/07Middle Tennessee27Marshall24Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee -2Middle Tennessee56.0Under
201410/11Marshall49Middle Tennessee24MarshallMarshall -21.5Marshall0
201310/24Middle Tennessee51Marshall49Middle TennesseeMarshall -10.5Middle Tennessee0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee552 Overs
Marshall445 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 27 - 23 - 14 - 1
Road Teams2 - 72 - 71 - 41 - 3

(#123) Marshall Info
Power Rating: -17.69 #123
Offense Rating: 1.93 #123
Defense Rating: 19.62 #118
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103
Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 36%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 27%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Awful Run Success 29%
Awful Pass Success 21%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Marshall has won 1 straight
Marshall has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Marshall Notes
(8/26) QB1 Del Rio-Wilson, J. Long, Z. Turner listed OR
(8/1) Year 0 for Gibson & staff, 62 new players
(8/1) WR added 11 portals! Scattered not great
(8/1) Def complete rebuild. 30 portal adds (of 59!)
(8/1) HC Huff pushed out, opted out of bowl
(8/1) New OC Smith was RichRod's OC @ Jax St
(3/22) 3/4 of roster is new, along with staff
(3/22) QB Rio-Wilson(SU), Turner(JS), Shockey(NC St)
(3/22) RB Houston back, Barbie (McNeese) added
(3/22) OL 2/5 back, 6 portal adds.

Marshall Highlights
Marshall Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Marshall Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#13)
Marshall has a great TO Margin (#28)
Marshall defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Marshall Deficiencies
Marshall offense is really bad (#136)
Marshall offense is not Explosive (#104)
Marshall Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#129)
Marshall offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Marshall run game is really bad (#133)
Marshall pass game is really bad (#134)
Marshall offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Marshall has a bad defense (#108)
Marshall gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#122)
Marshall has a bad red zone defense (#121)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMTSUMRSH
OverallOver#105#82
OffenseOff#112#99
DefenseDef#68#63
Special TeamsST#100#108
PassingPass#84#90
RushingRush#87#93
Run BlockRBLK#108#83
Pass BlockPBLK#121#76
Route RunningWR Rt#104#95
TacklingTkl#28#67
Run DefenseR Def#47#32
Pass Rush DefPRush#90#71
Coverage DefCov#77#87

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MRSH | MTSU
Depth Chart: MRSH | MTSU
Rosters: MRSH | MTSU
(#132) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121
Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 41%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Middle Tennessee has won 1 straight
Middle Tennessee has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Middle Tennessee Notes
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl

Middle Tennessee Highlights
Middle Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#28)
Middle Tennessee defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense at Home
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#125)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee pass game is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Middle Tennessee Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Middle Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#102)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)


  
Marshall's OC Rod Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zion Turner (Tr)193161%183015.9
JacQai Long41625%25001.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zion Turner (Tr)1711016.526
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)1810025.637
Joshon Barbie229614.428
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)166213.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw (Tr)579015.844
Toby Payne561012.226
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)341113.730
Antonio Harmon (Tr)134034.034

View Marshall's Full Roster
Marshall's DC Shannon Morrison
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kerion Martin (Tr)264220
Cannon Lewis (Tr)201100
Cameron Smith (Tr)154101
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braydin Ward73342
Kerion Martin (Tr)264220
Tyas Martin (Tr)72200
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braydin Ward73342
Daytione Smith50002
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato6211156%548424.9
Roman Gagliano11100%5005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook3314204.342
Rickey Hunt166704.215
Stanley Anderson-Lofton3903.015
Cam'Ron Lacy1505.05
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nahzae Cox14170312.137
Myles Butler1211609.723
Jekail Middlebrook118707.912
Cam'Ron Lacy563012.642

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes212011
Muaaz Byard172000
Shakai Woods133100
Anthony Bynum131010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeion Simpson-Smith62200
Damonte Smith95100
Brandon Buckner122100
John Howse IV81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Lowe101002
Parker Hughes212011
Abdul Muhammad60001