Marshall at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview

Marshall Thundering Herd at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Marshall -2.5 (46.5) (-135) Open: -4.5
Marshall 42 - Middle Tennessee: 28

Thundering Herd (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Gibson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 30 (30 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
MRSH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Marshall -6.5 (SP+ MRSH -11)
Projected Score: MRSH: 28 - MTSU: 21 (49)
MRSH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MRSH Travel: 281 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
MRSH Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Marshall's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Marshall at Georgia	+39.5	55.5	L 7 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Marshall vs Missouri State	-7.0	53.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/13	Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky	-14.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Marshall at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	46.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Marshall at Louisiana	-2.5	47.5	L 51 - 54	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Marshall vs Old Dominion	+14.5	57.5	W 48 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Marshall vs Texas State	+3.0	65.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30	Marshall at Coastal Carolina	-7.5	55.5	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/8	Marshall vs James Madison	+13.5	53.5	L 23 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Marshall at Georgia State	-9.5	59.5	W 30 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Marshall at App State	-3.5	57.5	L 24 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Marshall vs Georgia Southern	-10.5	61.5	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+7.0	54.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+2.5	52.5	L 20 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+9.5	55.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+4.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-1.5	50.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+13.5	51.5	L 26 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-6.5	53.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.5	52.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MRSH	#58 (.19)	45% (37)	30.8	43% (68)	3.05 (47)	198	48% (17)	208	3.89 (53)	#65 (.16)	39% (33)	30.3	37% (12)	42% (73)	3.62 (64)	59.9	1.3	1.8
MTSU	#78 (.16)	43% (60)	22.4	45% (56)	2.92 (72)	106	42% (63)	265	3.2 (116)	#108 (.22)	45% (108)	30.9	41% (57)	48% (131)	4.03 (104)	67.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MRSH	#60 (.21)	43% (66)		45% (47)	3.35 (18)	203	40% (88)	181	3.93 (66)	#47 (.13)	40% (46)		43% (75)	37% (21)	3.87 (79)	42.5	0.7	1.5
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MRSH Offense	12	30.8	30.2	45.1%	3.89	1.3	21	406	198	208	4.8	57%	42%	43%	48%	13%	.19
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	44.6%	4.03	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	48%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MRSH Defense	12	30.3	35.8	38.9%	3.62	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	37%	42%	16%	.16
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	43%	3.2	1	20	371	106	265	4.1	37%	62%	45%	42%	18%	.16

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Marshall	12	30:05	21.3	35%	44%	6.8	59.9	1.3	1.8	6.1	2.3	3	32.2
Middle Tennessee	12	28:45	19.6	37%	27%	7.3	67.7	1	1.3	5.2	1.8	0	28.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MRSH Offense	12	57% (19)	43% (68)	41.4	198.2	4.8	23 (40)	.05 (100)	3.05 (47)	63% (120)	8% (38)	0.85 (119)
MTSU Defense	12	50% (64)	41% (57)	-	-	-	-	.04 (35)	2.62 (19)	66% (30)	10% (68)	0.83 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MRSH Defense	12	51% (76)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (28)	2.6 (16)	63% (17)	10% (53)	0.99 (88)
MTSU Offense	12	37% (134)	45% (56)	26.2	106.1	4.1	11 (132)	.08 (85)	2.92 (72)	65% (110)	9% (60)	0.88 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MRSH Offense	12	42% (117)	48% (17)	18.2	27.9	207.9	7.5	11.4	18 (50)	6 (7)	.38 (28)	1.5 (84)	28% (23)	31% (61)	.31 (65)	5% (25)	2.1 (33)
MTSU Defense	12	48% (62)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (100)	.41 (125)	1.6 (100)	29% (107)	32% (101)	.33 (90)	6% (59)	1.9 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MRSH Defense	12	48% (59)	42% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (12)	.33 (109)	1.8 (133)	34% (37)	29% (66)	.21 (35)	6% (81)	1.9 (42)
MTSU Offense	12	62% (2)	42% (63)	24.8	41.6	264.9	6.4	10.7	23 (103)	7 (34)	.21 (89)	1.4 (116)	32% (78)	29% (82)	.3 (71)	9% (134)	1.9 (99)

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -7.36 #96
Marshall's Offense Rating: 4.53 #94
Marshall's Defense Rating: 11.89 #93
2025 Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Marshall's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Marshall's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #89
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #54
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #121

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Marshall: -7.36 Middle Tennessee: -12.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Marshall: -5.2 Middle Tennessee: -16.3

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -12.88 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 4.63 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 19.09 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #111
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Marshall's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Marshall 28
Middle Tennessee 21

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Marshall 27
Middle Tennessee 18

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Marshall 31
Middle Tennessee 28

Total Points: 59

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Middle Tennessee	28	Marshall	42	Marshall -2.5	Marshall	46.5	Over
2021	10/02	Middle Tennessee	34	Marshall	28	Marshall -11	Middle Tennessee	66.0	Under
2020	11/14	Marshall	42	Middle Tennessee	14	Marshall -23.5	Marshall	55.5	Over
2019	10/05	Middle Tennessee	24	Marshall	13	Marshall -5	Middle Tennessee	53.5	Under
2018	10/05	Marshall	24	Middle Tennessee	34	Marshall -3	Middle Tennessee	50.5	Over
2017	10/20	Middle Tennessee	10	Marshall	38	Marshall -1.5	Marshall	49.0	Under
2016	11/12	Marshall	42	Middle Tennessee	17	Middle Tennessee -11.5	Marshall	60.0	Under
2015	11/07	Middle Tennessee	27	Marshall	24	Middle Tennessee -2	Middle Tennessee	56.0	Under
2014	10/11	Marshall	49	Middle Tennessee	24	Marshall -21.5	Marshall	0
2013	10/24	Middle Tennessee	51	Marshall	49	Marshall -10.5	Middle Tennessee	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	5	5	3 Overs
Marshall	5	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 3	7 - 3	3 - 1	4 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 7	3 - 7	2 - 4	1 - 3

(#96) MRSH at (#127) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MRSH	MTSU
Power RatePwr	#96	#127
SP+SP+	#89	#127
Perf GradeGrade	#57	#115
OffenseOff	#80	#116
DefenseDef	#31	#85
Spec TeamsST	#106	#129
TalentTal	#92	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#101

Marshall Notes(10/19) Avg 44 PPG in last 5, won last 2 as underdogs
(10/12) Off scorching hot, killed ODU, pass/run 220+
(9/21) Killed M Tenn, QB Del Rio-Wilson good/efficient
(8/30) Turner/Long/Rio-Wilson all played vs UGA
(8/26) QB1 Del Rio-Wilson, J. Long, Z. Turner listed OR
(8/1) Year 0 for Gibson & staff, 62 new players
(8/1) WR added 11 portals! Scattered not great
(8/1) Def complete rebuild. 30 portal adds (of 59!)
(8/1) HC Huff pushed out, opted out of bowl
(8/1) New OC Smith was RichRod's OC @ Jax St
(3/22) 3/4 of roster is new, along with staff
(3/22) QB Rio-Wilson(SU), Turner(JS), Shockey(NC St)
Marshall Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Marshall on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MTSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#85
SuccessSuc	#37	#108
ExplosiveExp	#120	#83
PPAPPA	#58	#108
PowerPwr	#94	#128
SP+SP+	#54	#128
Pts POPPO	#53	#104
HavocHav	#30	#67

Marshall Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#94	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#68	#57
Run ExplRExp	#119	#11
PPAExp	#100	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	#47	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#14
TackleTak	-	#29

Marshall Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#100
PPAExp	#28	#125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#80
F7 HavocF7	#38	#68
DB HavocDB	#25	#59

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MRSH Def
Perf GradePerf	#116	#31
SuccessSuc	#60	#33
ExplosiveExp	#86	#129
PPAPPA	#78	#65
PowerPwr	#92	#93
SP+SP+	#111	#121
Pts POPPO	#116	#64
HavocHav	#115	#67

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MRSH Def
Run GameRun	#82	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#12
Run ExplRExp	#104	#88
PPAExp	#85	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#72	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#25
TackleTak	-	#35

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MRSH Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#63	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#116	#133
PPAExp	#89	#109
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#124	#87
F7 HavocF7	#60	#53
DB HavocDB	#134	#81

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MRSH 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 83°

Rematch from Week 4
Marshall 2.5 (46.5)
Marshall won at Middle Tennessee this year (42-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MRSH's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	171	256	67%	2043	17	5	8.0
Zion Turner (Tr)	40	59	68%	409	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	159	658	6	4.1	24
Antwan Roberts	90	512	4	5.7	54
Michael Allen (Tr)	77	385	4	5.0	68
Joshon Barbie	56	249	5	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demarcus Lacey (Tr)	65	769	5	11.8	68
De'Andre Tamarez (Tr)	32	395	2	12.3	44
Toby Payne	36	387	3	10.8	48
Adrian Norton (Tr)	28	383	5	13.7	41

View Marshall's Full Roster

MRSH's DC Shannon Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Kerion Martin (Tr)	67	6	2	7	1
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Javae Gilmore (Tr)	56	10	2	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braydin Ward	18	6	5	4	2
Paul Hutson III (Tr)	37	6	3	3	0
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)	51	6	3	4	2
Jamaal Whyce (Tr)	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Daytione Smith	50	2	0	0	4

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	219	357	61%	2157	16	7	6.0
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	140	752	4	5.4	72
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Rickey Hunt	34	111	1	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
Myles Butler	52	518	2	10.0	52
Nahzae Cox	40	473	5	11.8	43
Jekail Middlebrook	40	412	3	10.3	48

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	89	3	0	2	2
Anthony Bynum	63	6	3	8	4
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	35	7	5	1	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Damonte Smith	33	11	3	4	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
De'Arre McDonald	29	0	7
Abdul Muhammad	29	0	7
Jackson Lowe	36	2	4