Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview

Austin Peay Governors at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5) (-675) Open: -13.5 | 53.5
Austin Peay 34 - Middle Tennessee: 14

Governors (1 - 1) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 21 (20 - 21 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -19.5 (SP+ MTSU -23)
MTSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%

Blue Raiders (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 13 - 30 (14 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
PEAY Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Austin Peay's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee	+14.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Austin Peay at Georgia	+47.0	55.5	L 6 - 28	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Austin Peay's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+5.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+1.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+16
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+6.5
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+11.5
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+20.5
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	+1
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PEAY		0%	20	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	21	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU	#127 (-.01)	36% (119)	12.7	41% (88)	2.86 (83)	61	33% (119)	188	1.89 (129)	#120 (.29)	42% (86)	29.7	36% (45)	51% (123)	4.58 (109)	41.7	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PEAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PEAY Offense	2	20	20	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Defense	3	29.7	34	42.4%	4.58	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	36%	51%	16%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PEAY Defense	2	21	21	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Offense	3	12.7	14	36%	1.89	0.7	17	249	61	188	2.3	37%	61%	41%	33%	17%	-.01

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Austin Peay	2	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Middle Tennessee	3	27:17	16.7	28%	29%	5	41.7	0.7	1.3	7.3	2	0	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PEAY Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Defense	3	58% (118)	36% (45)	-	-	-	-	.1 (83)	2.95 (86)	86% (112)	12% (42)	1.02 (83)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PEAY Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Offense	3	37% (129)	41% (88)	26.7	60.7	2.3	1 (127)	-.06 (122)	2.86 (83)	40% (133)	11% (99)	0.99 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PEAY Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Defense	3	42% (21)	51% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (28)	.56 (127)	1.7 (113)	35% (42)	34% (104)	.47 (110)	4% (110)	2.1 (95)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PEAY Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Offense	3	61% (9)	33% (119)	21.3	38	188	5	8.8	4 (72)	2 (60)	.04 (124)	1.5 (83)	35% (111)	29% (90)	.38 (59)	7% (104)	2.2 (44)

Austin Peay's Power Ratings
Austin Peay's Power Rating: #NR
Austin Peay's Offense Rating: #NR
Austin Peay's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Austin Peay's 2025 Expected Record: -
Austin Peay's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Austin Peay's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Austin Peay's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay: Middle Tennessee: -19.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay: Middle Tennessee: -23.0

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Austin Peay Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Austin Peay's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Austin Peay 26
Middle Tennessee 17

Total Points: 43

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 12.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Middle Tennessee	14	Austin Peay	34	Austin Peay	Middle Tennessee -14.5	Austin Peay	53.5	Under
2010	09/11	Middle Tennessee	56	Austin Peay	33	Middle Tennessee

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	1	0	0 Overs
Austin Peay	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#NR) Austin Peay Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Austin Peay Highlights
Austin Peay is Undefeated vs Spread

Austin Peay Deficiencies
Austin Peay has a really bad Offense

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	MTSU	PEAY
OverallOver	#105	—
OffenseOff	#112	—
DefenseDef	#68	—
Special TeamsST	#100	—
PassingPass	#84	—
RushingRush	#87	—
Run BlockRBLK	#108	—
Pass BlockPBLK	#121	—
Route RunningWR Rt	#104	—
TacklingTkl	#28	—
Run DefenseR Def	#47	—
Pass Rush DefPRush	#90	—
Coverage DefCov	#77	—

Rematch from Week 1
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5)
Austin Peay won at Middle Tennessee this year (34-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PEAY | MTSU
Depth Chart: PEAY | MTSU
Rosters: PEAY | MTSU

(#132) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121
Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 41%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Middle Tennessee Notes
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl

Middle Tennessee Highlights
Middle Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#28)
Middle Tennessee defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense at Home
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#125)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee pass game is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Middle Tennessee Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Middle Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#102)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)

Austin Peay's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chris Parson (Tr)	38	57	67%	492	2	1	8.6
Austin Smith	10	16	63%	123	1	0	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javious Bond (Tr)	10	112	1	11.2	84
Chris Parson (Tr)	26	90	1	3.5	60
Corey Richardson	17	85	1	5.0	17
Courtland Simmons	22	78	3	3.5	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	YPC	LONG
Courtland Simmons	6	120	20.0	60
Shemar Kirk (Tr)	8	109	13.6	36
Kamari Maxwell	6	87	14.5	33
Nate Garnett	5	84	16.8	41

View Austin Peay's Full Roster

Austin Peay's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ellis Ellis Jr.	17	1	0	3
Trevor Hardy	9	1	0	1
Miles Wiley	9	0	0	0
Jaycob Neely	8	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
TJ Cox	2	2	2	0
Joquarri Price (Tr)	1	1	1	1
Jaycob Neely	8	3	1	0
Charles Crews III	5	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ellis Ellis Jr.	17	1	0	3
Jalon Williams (Tr)	1	0	0	2
Montreze Smith (Tr)	7	0	1	1

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	62	111	56%	548	4	2	4.9
Roman Gagliano	1	1	100%	5	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	33	142	4.3	42
Rickey Hunt	16	67	4.2	15
Stanley Anderson-Lofton	3	9	3.0	15
Cam'Ron Lacy	1	5	5.0	5

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nahzae Cox	14	170	3	12.1	37
Myles Butler	12	116	0	9.7	23
Jekail Middlebrook	11	87	0	7.9	12
Cam'Ron Lacy	5	63	0	12.6	42

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	21	2	0	1	1
Muaaz Byard	17	2	0	0	0
Shakai Woods	13	3	1	0	0
Anthony Bynum	13	1	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS
Zeion Simpson-Smith	6	2	2
Damonte Smith	9	5	1
Brandon Buckner	12	2	1
John Howse IV	8	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jackson Lowe	10	1	0	2
Parker Hughes	21	2	1	1
Abdul Muhammad	6	0	0	1