Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Austin Peay logo Austin Peay Governors at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5) (-675)  Open: -13.5 | 53.5
Austin Peay 34 - Middle Tennessee: 14

 
Governors (1 - 1) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 21 (20 - 21 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -13  (SP+ MTSU -16)
MTSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Austin Peay's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee+14.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/6 Austin Peay at Georgia+47.055.5L 6 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Austin Peay's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PEAY0%200%000%000%210%0%0000
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (60)22.445% (56)2.92 (72)10642% (63)2653.2 (116)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (57)48% (131)4.03 (104)67.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PEAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PEAY Offense220200%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MTSU Defense1230.932.544.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PEAY Defense221210%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MTSU Offense1222.42443%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Austin Peay20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PEAY Offense20%0%000000%0%0
MTSU Defense1250% (64)41% (57) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (19)66% (30)10% (68)0.83 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PEAY Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (85)2.92 (72)65% (110)9% (60)0.88 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PEAY Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
MTSU Defense1248% (62)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (125)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (101).33 (90)6% (59)1.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PEAY Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (63)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (89)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (82).3 (71)9% (134)1.9 (99)

Austin Peay's Power Ratings
Austin Peay's Power Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Offense Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Austin Peay's 2025 Expected Record: -
Austin Peay's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay:    Middle Tennessee: -12.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay:    Middle Tennessee: -16.3




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -12.88  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 4.63  #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 19.09  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #111
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Austin Peay Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Austin Peay's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 2
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Austin Peay 24

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Middle Tennessee 30
Austin Peay 22

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Austin Peay 26
Middle Tennessee 22

Total Points: 48
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Middle Tennessee14Austin Peay34Middle Tennessee -14.5Austin Peay53.5Under
201009/11Middle Tennessee56Austin Peay33
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee100 Overs
Austin Peay111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) PEAY at (#127) MTSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPEAYMTSU
Power RatePwrNR #127
SP+SP+NR #127
Perf GradeGradeNR #115
OffenseOffNR #116
DefenseDefNR #85
Spec TeamsSTNR #129
TalentTalNR #124
Blue ChipsBC%NR #101
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Austin Peay on Offense
CategoryCat
PEAY OffMTSU Def
Perf GradePerfNR #85
SuccessSucNR #108
ExplosiveExpNR #83
PPAPPANR #108
PowerPwrNR #128
SP+SP+NR #128
Pts POPPONR #104
HavocHavNR #67
Austin Peay Run Game
CategoryCat
PEAY OffMTSU Def
Run GameRunNR #34
Run SuccessRSucNR #57
Run ExplRExpNR #11
PPAExpNR #35
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #19
Stuff RateStuffNR #14
TackleTak -  #29
Austin Peay Pass Game
CategoryCat
PEAY OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePassNR #113
Pass SuccessPSucNR #131
Pass ExplPExlNR #100
PPAExpNR #125
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #80
F7 HavocF7NR #68
DB HavocDBNR #59
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffPEAY Def
Perf GradePerf #116NR
SuccessSuc #60NR
ExplosiveExp #86NR
PPAPPA #78NR
PowerPwr #92NR
SP+SP+ #111NR
Pts POPPO #116NR
HavocHav #115NR
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffPEAY Def
Run GameRun #82NR
Run SuccessRSuc #56NR
Run ExplRExp #104NR
PPAExp #85NR
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #72NR
Stuff RateStuff #116NR
TackleTak - NR
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffPEAY Def
Pass GamePass #45NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #63NR
Pass ExplPExl #116NR
PPAExp #89NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #124NR
F7 HavocF7 #60NR
DB HavocDB #134NR
Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

PEAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5)
Austin Peay won at Middle Tennessee this year (34-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
PEAY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chris Parson (Tr)18228863%26732159.3
Austin Smith121867%158208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Parson (Tr)151705124.760
Javious Bond (Tr)4032648.284
Courtland Simmons6529134.562
Kaden Williams5121224.232
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shemar Kirk (Tr)42685816.379
Jaden Robinson (Tr)36465512.946
Kamari Maxwell22363416.545
Nate Garnett18322217.970

View Austin Peay's Full Roster

PEAY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ellis Ellis Jr.171003
Miles Wiley90000
Trevor Hardy91001
Jaycob Neely83100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Cox22200
Joquarri Price (Tr)11110
Jaycob Neely83100
Charles Crews III51110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ellis Ellis Jr.171003
Jalon Williams (Tr)10002
Trevor Hardy91001

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004