Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview

Austin Peay Governors at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5) (-675) Open: -13.5 | 53.5
Austin Peay 34 - Middle Tennessee: 14

Governors (1 - 1) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 21 (20 - 21 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -12 (SP+ MTSU -16)
MTSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PEAY Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Austin Peay's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee	+14.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Austin Peay at Georgia	+47.0	55.5	L 6 - 28	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Austin Peay's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+7.0	54.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+2.5	52.5	L 20 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+9.5	55.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+4.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-1.5	50.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+13.5	51.5	L 26 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-6.5	53.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.5	52.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PEAY		0%	20	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	21	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	22.4	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	30.9	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PEAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PEAY Offense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PEAY Defense	1	21	21	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Austin Peay	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PEAY Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PEAY Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PEAY Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PEAY Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)

Austin Peay's Power Ratings
Austin Peay's Power Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Offense Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Austin Peay's 2025 Expected Record: -
Austin Peay's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Austin Peay's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay: Middle Tennessee: -11.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Austin Peay: Middle Tennessee: -16.0

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -11.79 #111
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02 #122
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Austin Peay Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Austin Peay's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 2
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Austin Peay 26
Middle Tennessee 22

Projected Total Points: 48

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Middle Tennessee	14	Austin Peay	34	Middle Tennessee -14.5	Austin Peay	53.5	Under
2010	09/11	Middle Tennessee	56	Austin Peay	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	1	0	0 Overs
Austin Peay	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) PEAY at (#111) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PEAY	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#111
SP+SP+	NR	#127
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#114
OffenseOff	NR	#122
DefenseDef	NR	#72
Spec TeamsST	NR	#131
TalentTal	NR	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#101

Austin Peay Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Austin Peay on Offense


CategoryCat	PEAY Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	#130
ExplosiveExp	NR	#71
PPAPPA	NR	#129
PowerPwr	NR	#122
SP+SP+	NR	#128
Pts POPPO	NR	#126
HavocHav	NR	#108

Austin Peay Run Game


CategoryCat	PEAY Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#124
Run ExplRExp	NR	#59
PPAExp	NR	#107
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#97
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#62
TackleTak	-	#26

Austin Peay Pass Game


CategoryCat	PEAY Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#127
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#90
PPAExp	NR	#129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#75
F7 HavocF7	NR	#100
DB HavocDB	NR	#101

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	PEAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	NR
SuccessSuc	#105	NR
ExplosiveExp	#53	NR
PPAPPA	#107	NR
PowerPwr	#91	NR
SP+SP+	#110	NR
Pts POPPO	#128	NR
HavocHav	#113	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	PEAY Def
Run GameRun	#86	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	NR
Run ExplRExp	#62	NR
PPAExp	#110	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#125	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	PEAY Def
Pass GamePass	#52	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#102	NR
PPAExp	#95	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	NR
F7 HavocF7	#100	NR
DB HavocDB	#112	NR

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

PEAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Middle Tennessee -14.5 (53.5)
Austin Peay won at Middle Tennessee this year (34-14)

Previous Matchups
Austin Peay beat Middle Tennessee last year (34-14)

PEAY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chris Parson (Tr)	182	288	63%	2673	21	5	9.3
Austin Smith	12	18	67%	158	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Parson (Tr)	151	705	12	4.7	60
Javious Bond (Tr)	40	326	4	8.2	84
Courtland Simmons	65	291	3	4.5	62
Kaden Williams	51	212	2	4.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shemar Kirk (Tr)	42	685	8	16.3	79
Jaden Robinson (Tr)	36	465	5	12.9	46
Kamari Maxwell	22	363	4	16.5	45
Nate Garnett	18	322	2	17.9	70

View Austin Peay's Full Roster

PEAY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Ellis Ellis Jr.	17	1	3
Miles Wiley	9	0	0
Trevor Hardy	9	1	1
William Middleton	8	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
TJ Cox	2	2	2	0
Joquarri Price (Tr)	1	1	1	1
Jaycob Neely	8	3	1	0
Charles Crews III	5	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ellis Ellis Jr.	17	1	3
Jalon Williams (Tr)	1	0	2
Trevor Hardy	9	1	1

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	219	357	61%	2157	16	7	6.0
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	140	752	4	5.4	72
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Rickey Hunt	34	111	1	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
Myles Butler	52	518	2	10.0	52
Nahzae Cox	40	473	5	11.8	43
Jekail Middlebrook	40	412	3	10.3	48

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	89	3	0	2	2
Anthony Bynum	63	6	3	8	4
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	35	7	5	1	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Damonte Smith	33	11	3	4	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
De'Arre McDonald	29	0	7
Abdul Muhammad	29	0	7
Jackson Lowe	36	2	4