Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Jacksonville State logo Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Wednesday, October 29th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Jacksonville State -4.5 (54.0) (-225)  Open: -6.5 | 54.5
Jacksonville State 24 - Middle Tennessee: 21  (Conference USA)

 
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Heavy Rain Predicted
JVST coming off BYE
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -0.5  (SP+ JVST -9.5)

Projected Score: JVST: 27 - MTSU: 27 (54)
JVST Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
JVST Travel: 144 miles
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Jacksonville State at UCF+16.553.5L 10 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.050.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/13 Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.059.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.560.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/27 Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.555.5L 25 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.053.5W 29 - 27ON
Wed 10/15 Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.055.5W 38 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29 Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.554.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/8 Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.546.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.556.5W 35 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.555.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.556.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 12/5 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.062.5L 15 - 19UN
Tue 12/16 Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.047.5W 17 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#22 (.27)45% (35)28.149% (18)3.36 (17)25440% (95)1894.85 (3)#55 (.14)43% (84)25.244% (79)43% (85)3.81 (70)58.41.11.6
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)22.438% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)30.950% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Offense1428.12445.2%4.851.1234432541895.564%36%49%40%11%.27
MTSU Defense1230.932.549.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Defense1425.229.243.2%3.811.6 - - - - - 54%46%44%43%16%.14
MTSU Offense1222.42439.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Jacksonville State1426:5722.641%54%658.41.11.65.61.7128.5
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Offense1464% (4)49% (18)45.9253.65.551 (1).25 (15)3.36 (17)67% (107)8% (23)1.07 (32)
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Defense1454% (108)44% (79) - - - - .09 (52)3.01 (72)63% (20)10% (59)0.88 (22)
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Offense1436% (131)40% (95)13.422.3189.48.514.114 (108)7 (26).33 (35)1.9 (5)27% (10)32% (65).33 (72)3% (8)2.1 (51)
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Defense1446% (27)43% (85) - - - - - - 12 (39).21 (55)1.5 (56)30% (102)33% (105).36 (92)6% (63)2 (45)
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -17.49  #126
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 8.92  #92
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 26.41  #134
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7  #92
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #67
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4  #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -17.49   Middle Tennessee: -11.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -6.7   Middle Tennessee: -16.0




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -11.79  #110
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44  #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02  #121
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 27
Jacksonville State 27


Projected Total Points: 54
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/29Middle Tennessee21Jacksonville State24Jacksonville State -4.5Middle Tennessee54.0Under
202410/23Jacksonville State42Middle Tennessee20Jacksonville State -20.5Jacksonville State64.5Under
202310/04Middle Tennessee30Jacksonville State45Middle Tennessee -2.5Jacksonville State52.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee011 Overs
Jacksonville State322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 11 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#126) JVST at (#110) MTSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJVSTMTSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #126 #110
SP+SP+ #92 #127
Perf GradeGrade #69 #114
OffenseOff #76 #122
DefenseDef #44 #72
Spec TeamsST #107 #131
TalentTal #128 #124
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Jacksonville State Notes
(12/5) Creel is a RB taking snaps. Just an awful QB
(12/3) Have significant injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat WKU to finish 7-1 in conf, play Kenn St in title game
(10/16) HC Kelly has been so much better than I thought
(10/16) RB Cam Cook a beast and criminally underrated
(10/14) QB1 now Caden Creel, Wimsatt (benched) now QB2
(10/10) OG'd SHSU 500-280, had 370 rush, needed GW FG
(10/8) Fr QB Caden Creel replaced Wimsatt in S Miss game
(10/8) QB1 Competition now, Fr Creel mobile but TO issues
(9/22) Off is 4th in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/11) RB Cam Cook (Tr TCU) has been great so far
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
Jacksonville State Injury Report
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Jacksonville State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffMTSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #76 #72
SuccessSuc #35 #130
ExplosiveExp #30 #71
PPAPPA #22 #129
PowerPwr #92 #121
SP+SP+ #67 #128
Pts POPPO #3 #126
HavocHav #7 #108
Jacksonville State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #39 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #124
Run ExplRExp #32 #59
PPAExp #15 #107
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #97
Stuff RateStuff #31 #62
TackleTak -  #26
Jacksonville State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #95 #127
Pass ExplPExl #5 #90
PPAExp #35 #129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #26 #75
F7 HavocF7 #23 #100
DB HavocDB #8 #101
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffJVST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #122 #44
SuccessSuc #105 #84
ExplosiveExp #53 #27
PPAPPA #107 #55
PowerPwr #91 #134
SP+SP+ #110 #102
Pts POPPO #128 #70
HavocHav #113 #66
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffJVST Def
Run GameRun #86 #36
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #79
Run ExplRExp #62 #22
PPAExp #110 #52
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #72
Stuff RateStuff #125 #63
TackleTak -  #22
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffJVST Def
Pass GamePass #52 #64
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #85
Pass ExplPExl #102 #56
PPAExp #95 #55
Pass Block/RushP Blk #128 #60
F7 HavocF7 #100 #59
DB HavocDB #112 #63
Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 52°Rain: 0.039
Rematch from Week 10
Jacksonville State 4.5 (54.0)
Jacksonville State won at Middle Tennessee this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee last year (24-21)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (42-20)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (45-30)

  
JVST's OC Clint Trickett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Creel13021162%1514947.2
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)6311256%731426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook (Tr)2961666165.673
Caden Creel182107575.973
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)5226345.144
Khristian Lando5120113.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deondre Johnson (Tr)30724624.177
Brock Rechsteiner36383510.656
Pearson Baldwin26302211.652
Cam Cook (Tr)3028609.554

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Sanders8312252
Walker O'Steen786361
Trevor Woods (Tr)641004
Caleb Nix (Tr)634003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Darrell Prater214400
Isaac Walker (Tr)316331
Malcolm Jones515310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Quon Fegans (Tr)362009
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jaheim Jenkins (Tr)210005

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004