Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Jacksonville State logo Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Wednesday, October 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" - Murfreesboro, TN  (Conference USA)

 
Gamecocks (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (22 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
JVST coming off BYE
Our Line: Jacksonville State -6.5   (SP+ JVST -14.5)

Projected Score: JVST: 28 - MTSU: 21 (49)
JVST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
JVST Travel: 144 miles
Blue Raiders (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 13 - 30 (14 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Jacksonville State at UCF+16.553.5L 10 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.050.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/13 Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.059.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Jacksonville State vs Murray State-10.5
Sat 9/27 Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+11
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Jacksonville State at Sam Houston-3
Wed 10/15 Jacksonville State vs Delaware+2
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29 Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-6.5
Sat 11/8 Jacksonville State at UTEP+8.5
Sat 11/15 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State-8.5
Sat 11/22 Jacksonville State vs Florida International+8
Sat 11/29 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+5.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+16
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+6.5
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+11.5
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+20.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston+1
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#83 (.16)40% (97)2645% (61)3.17 (46)24130% (129)1304 (67)#119 (.29)42% (84)27.341% (84)43% (95)2.22 (20)28.30.71.3
MTSU#127 (-.01)36% (119)12.741% (88)2.86 (83)6133% (119)1881.89 (129)#120 (.29)42% (86)29.736% (45)51% (123)4.58 (109)41.70.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#22 (.27)45% (35)49% (18)3.36 (17)25440% (95)1894.85 (3)#55 (.14)43% (84)44% (79)43% (85)3.81 (70)58.41.11.6
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Offense3262240%40.7193702411305.666%34%45%30%11%.16
MTSU Defense329.73442.4%4.581.3 - - - - - 58%42%36%51%16%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Defense327.32942.3%2.221.3 - - - - - 51%49%41%43%17%.29
MTSU Offense312.71436%1.890.717249611882.337%61%41%33%17%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Jacksonville State329:3919.342%67%3.728.30.71.342029
Middle Tennessee327:1716.728%29%541.70.71.37.32031
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Offense366% (7)45% (61)43240.75.68 (26).28 (34)3.17 (46)64% (99)5% (14)1.36 (14)
MTSU Defense358% (118)36% (45) - - - - .1 (83)2.95 (86)86% (112)12% (42)1.02 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Defense351% (82)41% (84) - - - - .08 (74)2.67 (56)75% (80)11% (52)1.26 (120)
MTSU Offense337% (129)41% (88)26.760.72.31 (127)-.06 (122)2.86 (83)40% (133)11% (99)0.99 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Offense334% (130)30% (129)1322.3129.75.8101 (123)2 (60)-.08 (131)1.2 (119)32% (91)29% (90).23 (96)5% (76)1.8 (97)
MTSU Defense342% (21)51% (123) - - - - - - 3 (28).56 (127)1.7 (113)35% (42)34% (104).47 (110)4% (110)2.1 (95)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Defense349% (64)43% (95) - - - - - - 1 (87).52 (124)2 (131)33% (71)38% (121).63 (125)6% (70)2.2 (105)
MTSU Offense361% (9)33% (119)21.33818858.84 (72)2 (60).04 (124)1.5 (83)35% (111)29% (90).38 (59)7% (104)2.2 (44)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -17.65 #122
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 2.27 #119
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 19.92 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6 #93
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #92
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #98

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -17.65   Middle Tennessee: -19.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -8.6   Middle Tennessee: -23.0




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Jacksonville State 28
Middle Tennessee 21


Total Points: 49

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 12.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/23Jacksonville State42Middle Tennessee20Jacksonville StateJacksonville State -20.5Jacksonville State64.5Under
202310/04Middle Tennessee30Jacksonville State45Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee -2.5Jacksonville State52.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee001 Overs
Jacksonville State221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#122) Jacksonville State Info
Power Rating: -17.65 #122
Offense Rating: 2.27 #119
Defense Rating: 19.92 #120
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6 #93
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #98
Talent Rating: 386.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Option Offense 66%, Pass: 34%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Great in Scoring Position 2.22 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Jacksonville State has lost 5 straight
Jacksonville State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Jacksonville State Notes
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
(8/1) This looks like a truly bad season coming
(7/11) Kelly has years of SEC exp. OC Trickett meh
(7/11) Transition year for CUSA champs, rough one
(7/11) Why Pass Heavy Off now? Had good thing
(5/11) #2 least exp'd OL & no exp'd portal adds
(4/17) RB Cook (TCU) had a great spring, likely RB1
(3/24) RB complete rebuild. Cook (TCU)/Paul (UGA)
(3/24) WR return some good prod, 1 portal
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, good LY. No portal adds

Jacksonville State Highlights
Jacksonville State has Really Good Running Game (#12)
Jacksonville State defense is really good in red zone (#20)
Jacksonville State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Jacksonville State commits very few Penalties (#16)

Jacksonville State Deficiencies
Jacksonville State pass game is really bad (#129)
Jacksonville State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#134)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMTSUJVST
OverallOver#105#77
OffenseOff#112#65
DefenseDef#68#91
Special TeamsST#100#58
PassingPass#84#67
RushingRush#87#42
Run BlockRBLK#108#31
Pass BlockPBLK#121#78
Route RunningWR Rt#104#102
TacklingTkl#28#63
Run DefenseR Def#47#92
Pass Rush DefPRush#90#46
Coverage DefCov#77#101

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee last year (42-20)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (45-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: JVST | MTSU
Depth Chart: JVST | MTSU
Rosters: JVST | MTSU
(#132) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -19.485 #132
Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121
Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 41%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Middle Tennessee has lost 4 straight
Middle Tennessee has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Middle Tennessee Notes
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl

Middle Tennessee Highlights
Middle Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#28)
Middle Tennessee defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense at Home
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#125)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee pass game is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Middle Tennessee Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Middle Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#102)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)


  
Jacksonville State's OC Clint Trickett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)376557%369125.7
Cade Backe11100%2002.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook (Tr)6739025.831
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)3516534.744
Andrew Paul139227.142
Caden Creel53006.014
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brock Rechsteiner8102112.856
Caleb Coombs (Tr)108508.516
Deondre Johnson (Tr)465016.326
Pearson Baldwin65609.332

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster
Jacksonville State's DC Brian Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevor Woods (Tr)210000
Travis Franklin Jr.130001
Walker O'Steen131000
Tyrin Taylor (Tr)120000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo102220
Gharin Stansbury41101
Tae Floyd11100
Chase Alexander52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Nix (Tr)100002
Corbet Mims00001
Gharin Stansbury41101

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato6211156%548424.9
Roman Gagliano11100%5005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook3314204.342
Rickey Hunt166704.215
Stanley Anderson-Lofton3903.015
Cam'Ron Lacy1505.05
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nahzae Cox14170312.137
Myles Butler1211609.723
Jekail Middlebrook118707.912
Cam'Ron Lacy563012.642

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes212011
Muaaz Byard172000
Shakai Woods133100
Anthony Bynum131010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeion Simpson-Smith62200
Damonte Smith95100
Brandon Buckner122100
John Howse IV81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Lowe101002
Parker Hughes212011
Abdul Muhammad60001