Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin - 2025 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -28.5 (45.5) (-6500)  Open: -27.5 | 46.5
Wisconsin 42 - Middle Tennessee: 10

 
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
WIS 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Wisconsin -15  (SP+ WIS -12)

Projected Score: MTSU: 13 - WIS: 28 (41)
WIS Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
MTSU Travel: 524 miles
Badgers (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (13 - 13)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (16 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Wisconsin vs Miami (OH)-17.540.5W 17 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee-28.545.5W 42 - 10OY
Sat 9/13 Wisconsin at Alabama+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/20 Wisconsin vs Maryland-10.544.5L 10 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Wisconsin at Michigan+17.542.5L 10 - 24UY
Sat 10/11 Wisconsin vs Iowa+5.537.5L 0 - 37UN
Sat 10/18 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+24.541.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 10/25 Wisconsin at Oregon+31.544.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Wisconsin vs Washington+10.544.5W 13 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 Wisconsin at Indiana+28.543.5L 7 - 31UY
Sat 11/22 Wisconsin vs Illinois+8.542.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Wisconsin at Minnesota-2.538.5L 7 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (60)22.445% (56)2.92 (72)10642% (63)2653.2 (116)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (57)48% (131)4.03 (104)67.711.3
WIS#132 (.01)35% (130)12.834% (132)2.82 (94)11838% (109)1362.28 (135)#88 (.19)45% (112)21.644% (91)46% (119)3.13 (26)30.11.30.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)46% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)45% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1222.420.843%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16
WIS Defense1221.618.344.8%3.130.5 - - - - - 47%51%44%46%13%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1230.929.344.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
WIS Offense1212.815.635.4%2.281.3142551181363.456%42%34%38%18%.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Wisconsin1230:3714.132%67%3.630.11.30.55.12.6128.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (85)2.92 (72)65% (110)9% (60)0.88 (104)
WIS Defense1247% (34)44% (91) - - - - .06 (46)2.75 (44)71% (69)9% (89)0.86 (17)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1250% (64)41% (57) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (19)66% (30)10% (68)0.83 (11)
WIS Offense1256% (26)34% (132)35.1118.33.49 (122).04 (107)2.82 (94)66% (105)12% (122)1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (63)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (89)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (82).3 (71)9% (134)1.9 (99)
WIS Defense1251% (100)46% (119) - - - - - - 5 (75).33 (107)1.4 (12)30% (96)29% (67).34 (91)4% (133)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1248% (62)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (125)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (101).33 (90)6% (59)1.9 (37)
WIS Offense1242% (113)38% (109)13.122.7136.4610.49 (114)13 (119).03 (131)1.5 (105)33% (101)25% (119).2 (107)7% (94)2.1 (48)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -14.46  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 4.63  #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 19.09  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #111
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -14.46   Wisconsin: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.3   Wisconsin: -4.6




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: -0.53  #75
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 1.15  #121
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 2.61  #34
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24  #24
Wisconsin's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wisconsin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6  #87
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #122
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 28
Middle Tennessee 13


Total Points: 41

Based on Last 4 Games
Wisconsin 16
Middle Tennessee 13

Total Points: 29

Based on Entire Season
Wisconsin 22
Middle Tennessee 21

Total Points: 43
Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 15.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Wisconsin's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Wisconsin42Middle Tennessee10Wisconsin -28.5Wisconsin45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin111 Overs
Middle Tennessee000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#127) MTSU at (#75) WIS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUWIS
Power RatePwr #127 #75
SP+SP+ #127 #87
Perf GradeGrade #115 #108
OffenseOff #116 #128
DefenseDef #85 #56
Spec TeamsST #129 #51
TalentTal #124 #35
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #24
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Wisconsin Notes
(11/10) Fr LB Mason Posa was unreal vs Wash. Big future
(11/6) Fickell will return in '26. NIL $ coming
(10/12) Tire fire. Off has scored 34 pts vs four P4 teams
(10/8) QB O'Neil 3rd string now? Edwards (inj), Simmons #2
(10/4) QB1 is now Hunter Simmons, looks better than others
(9/20) Run Off pitiful, Pass Def bad vs MD. Bad loss
(9/18) QB1 Edwards game time decision for MD
(8/30) Run game bad vs M-OH, QBs bad, Def great
(5/17) DL was portal focus, 7 adds, DE big need
(5/15) LT Heywood out for season (ACL), big loss
(5/15) DB looks light on bodies, CB could be 2 portals?
(4/18) RBs Dupree & rFr Jones decent combo, depth?
Wisconsin Injury Report
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWIS Def
Perf GradePerf #116 #56
SuccessSuc #60 #112
ExplosiveExp #86 #18
PPAPPA #78 #88
PowerPwr #92 #34
SP+SP+ #111 #37
Pts POPPO #116 #26
HavocHav #115 #120
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWIS Def
Run GameRun #82 #51
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #91
Run ExplRExp #104 #17
PPAExp #85 #46
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #44
Stuff RateStuff #116 #24
TackleTak -  #76
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWIS Def
Pass GamePass #45 #106
Pass SuccessPSuc #63 #119
Pass ExplPExl #116 #12
PPAExp #89 #107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #124 #34
F7 HavocF7 #60 #89
DB HavocDB #134 #133
Wisconsin on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWIS OffMTSU Def
Perf GradePerf #128 #85
SuccessSuc #130 #108
ExplosiveExp #76 #83
PPAPPA #132 #108
PowerPwr #121 #128
SP+SP+ #122 #128
Pts POPPO #135 #104
HavocHav #119 #67
Wisconsin Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WIS OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #125 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #132 #57
Run ExplRExp #37 #11
PPAExp #107 #35
Run BlockR Blk #106 -
OL YdsOLY #94 #19
Stuff RateStuff #72 #14
TackleTak -  #29
Wisconsin Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWIS OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #135 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #131
Pass ExplPExl #105 #100
PPAExp #131 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #83 #80
F7 HavocF7 #122 #68
DB HavocDB #94 #59
Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 60° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Wisconsin -28.5 (45.5)
Wisconsin won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004

WIS's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Simmons6211853%664275.6
Danny O'Neil (Tr)619068%635557.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darrion Dupree8336324.484
Dilin Jones7630023.916
Gideon Ituka6025504.318
Trech Kekahuna1412919.261
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lance Mason (Tr)30398413.345
Vinny Anthony31391112.667
Trech Kekahuna2621108.145
Jayden Ballard (Tr)7150221.458

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Posa574424
Cooper Catalano565111
Matthew Jung491000
Christian Alliegro488401
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darryl Peterson3312733
Mason Reiger (Tr)326541
Mason Posa574424
Christian Alliegro488401
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ricardo Hallman271005
Mason Posa574424
Austin Brown410003