Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin - 2025 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -28.5 (45.5) (-6500)  Open: -27.5 | 46.5
Wisconsin 42 - Middle Tennessee: 10

 
Blue Raiders (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 13 - 30 (12 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
WIS 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Wisconsin -33.5   (SP+ WIS -30)

Projected Score: MTSU: 4 - WIS: 38 (42)
WIS Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
MTSU Travel: 524 miles
Badgers (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (13 - 13)
Avg Score : 24 - 16 (30 - 5 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+5.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+16
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+6.5
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+11.5
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+20.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston+1
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Wisconsin vs Miami (OH)-17.540.5W 17 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee-28.545.5W 42 - 10OY
Sat 9/13 Wisconsin at Alabama+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/20 Wisconsin vs Maryland-9.543.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Wisconsin at Michigan+16
Sat 10/11 Wisconsin vs Iowa+2.5
Sat 10/18 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+18
Sat 10/25 Wisconsin at Oregon+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Wisconsin vs Washington+5
Sat 11/15 Wisconsin at Indiana+14
Sat 11/22 Wisconsin vs Illinois+9
Sat 11/29 Wisconsin at Minnesota+6.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#127 (-.01)36% (119)12.741% (88)2.86 (83)6133% (119)1881.89 (129)#120 (.29)42% (86)29.736% (45)51% (123)4.58 (109)41.70.71.3
WIS#66 (.21)46% (51)24.343% (81)3.6 (22)14351% (30)1963.17 (112)#101 (.2)43% (97)1638% (60)48% (115)1.82 (11)351.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)46% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)45% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense312.71236%1.890.717249611882.337%61%41%33%17%-.01
WIS Defense316543.2%1.821 - - - - - 43%55%38%48%11%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense329.727.542.4%4.581.3 - - - - - 58%42%36%51%16%.29
WIS Offense324.329.546.2%3.171.3193391431964.153%46%43%51%14%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee327:1716.728%29%541.70.71.37.32031
Wisconsin333:4419.350%80%3.7351.314.33127.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense337% (129)41% (88)26.760.72.31 (127)-.06 (122)2.86 (83)40% (133)11% (99)0.99 (58)
WIS Defense343% (21)38% (60) - - - - -.1 (18)2.8 (72)57% (28)7% (110)0.86 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense358% (118)36% (45) - - - - .1 (83)2.95 (86)86% (112)12% (42)1.02 (83)
WIS Offense353% (53)43% (81)35.3143.34.14 (79).25 (40)3.6 (22)79% (40)8% (58)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense361% (9)33% (119)21.33818858.84 (72)2 (60).04 (124)1.5 (83)35% (111)29% (90).38 (59)7% (104)2.2 (44)
WIS Defense355% (106)48% (115) - - - - - - 3 (28).48 (118)1.7 (97)30% (95)37% (119).66 (129)4% (108)2.3 (115)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense342% (21)51% (123) - - - - - - 3 (28).56 (127)1.7 (113)35% (42)34% (104).47 (110)4% (110)2.1 (95)
WIS Offense346% (85)51% (30)17.325.31967.711.35 (54)4 (121).23 (79)1.4 (91)32% (89)33% (54).48 (44)6% (89)2 (59)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -20.97 #132
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -20.97   Wisconsin: 11.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -23.0   Wisconsin: 6.8




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 11.68 #49
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 15.92 #47
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 4.35 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #24
Wisconsin's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Wisconsin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8 #52
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #79
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 12.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 12
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 38
Middle Tennessee 4


Total Points: 42

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 16 PPG
Defense at Home: 5

Wisconsin's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Wisconsin42Middle Tennessee10WisconsinWisconsin -28.5Wisconsin45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin111 Overs
Middle Tennessee000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#132) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -20.97 #132
Offense Rating: 1.97 #122
Defense Rating: 23.25 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #121
Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 41%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Middle Tennessee has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Middle Tennessee Notes
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl

Middle Tennessee Highlights
Middle Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#28)
Middle Tennessee defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#125)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee pass game is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Middle Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#102)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWISMTSU
OverallOver#40#105
OffenseOff#53#112
DefenseDef#31#68
Special TeamsST#22#100
PassingPass#100#84
RushingRush#69#87
Run BlockRBLK#54#108
Pass BlockPBLK#65#121
Route RunningWR Rt#11#104
TacklingTkl#45#28
Run DefenseR Def#12#47
Pass Rush DefPRush#20#90
Coverage DefCov#77#77

Rematch from Week 2
Wisconsin -28.5 (45.5)
Wisconsin won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | WIS
Depth Chart: MTSU | WIS
Rosters: MTSU | WIS
(#49) Wisconsin Info
Power Rating: 11.68 #49
Offense Rating: 15.92 #47
Defense Rating: 4.35 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8 #52
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #26
Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #24
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.17 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Great in Scoring Position 1.82 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wisconsin has won 1 straight
Wisconsin has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Wisconsin Notes
(8/30) Run game bad vs M-OH, QBs bad, Def great
(5/17) DL was portal focus, 7 adds, DE big need
(5/15) LT Heywood out for season (ACL), big loss
(5/15) DB looks light on bodies, CB could be 2 portals?
(4/18) RBs Dupree & rFr Jones decent combo, depth?
(4/4) OT Riley Mahlman a top OT via PFF past 2 yrs
(3/31) QB portals Edwards (MD)/O'Neil (SDSU) meh
(3/31) Def was decent, return a lot. 13 portals, 7 DL
(3/31) 0-5 finish LY, scored over 13 pts only once.
(3/24) Portal WR Hamper (Idaho) great find/weapon

Wisconsin Highlights
Wisconsin is Undefeated at Home

Wisconsin has a top Offensive Line (#22)
Wisconsin offense is good on 3rd downs
Wisconsin does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#20)

Wisconsin Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Wisconsin defense is really good in red zone (#11)
Wisconsin Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#27)
Wisconsin commits very few Penalties (#16)
Wisconsin defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Wisconsin Deficiencies
Wisconsin throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Wisconsin offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#112)


  
Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato6211156%548424.9
Roman Gagliano11100%5005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook3314204.342
Rickey Hunt166704.215
Stanley Anderson-Lofton3903.015
Cam'Ron Lacy1505.05
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nahzae Cox14170312.137
Myles Butler1211609.723
Jekail Middlebrook118707.912
Cam'Ron Lacy563012.642

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes212011
Muaaz Byard172000
Shakai Woods133100
Anthony Bynum131010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeion Simpson-Smith62200
Damonte Smith95100
Brandon Buckner122100
John Howse IV81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Lowe101002
Parker Hughes212011
Abdul Muhammad60001

Wisconsin's OC Jeff Grimes
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil (Tr)466373%520548.3
Billy Edwards61346%68005.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dilin Jones2913414.613
Darrion Dupree219204.414
Trech Kekahuna572114.461
Cade Yacamelli145604.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Ballard (Tr)6141223.558
Lance Mason (Tr)9132114.734
Vinny Anthony9115112.831
Trech Kekahuna64607.722

View Wisconsin's Full Roster
Wisconsin's DC Mike Tressel
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro124200
Tackett Curtis101101
Mason Reiger (Tr)81120
Sebastian Cheeks72100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro124200
Brandon Lane32200
Sebastian Cheeks72100
Darryl Peterson41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ricardo Hallman40002
Austin Brown30001
Tackett Curtis101101