Florida International at Middle Tennessee

Florida International at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview

Florida International Golden Panthers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, November 8th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Middle Tennessee -1.5 (50.5) (-118) Open: -1.5
Florida International 56 - Middle Tennessee: 30 (Conference USA)

Golden Panthers (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Willie Simmons (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (22 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

FIU 2nd straight Road Game
MTSU 2nd straight Home Game
FIU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -0.5 (SP+ FIU -5.5)
Projected Score: FIU: 26 - MTSU: 27 (53)
MTSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
FIU Travel: 783 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
FIU Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida International's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Florida International vs Bethune-Cookman	-26.5	54.5	W 42 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Florida International at Penn State	+42.0	53.5	L 0 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Florida International vs Florida Atlantic	-2.0	56.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Florida International vs Delaware	-4.0	54.5	L 16 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Florida International at UConn	+7.0	52.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Florida International at Western Kentucky	+9.5	55.5	W 25 - 6	U	Y
Tue 10/21	Florida International vs Kennesaw State	+3.0	48.5	L 26 - 45	O	N
Wed 10/29	Florida International at Missouri State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/8	Florida International at Middle Tennessee	+1.5	50.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Florida International vs Liberty	+2.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Florida International vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	55.5	W 27 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Florida International vs Sam Houston	-10.5	50.5	W 56 - 16	O	Y
Fri 12/26	Florida International vs UTSA	+7.0	62.5	L 20 - 57	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3

Predictions for Florida International's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+7.0	54.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+2.5	52.5	L 20 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+9.5	55.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+4.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-1.5	50.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+13.5	51.5	L 26 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-6.5	53.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.5	52.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FIU	#101 (.13)	39% (111)	28.5	37% (125)	2.48 (130)	122	42% (64)	229	4.44 (21)	#37 (.12)	41% (62)	30	44% (81)	37% (30)	3.49 (39)	47.4	1.6	1.3
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	22.4	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	30.9	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FIU Offense	12	28.5	22.4	39.2%	4.44	1.6	18	351	122	229	3.7	52%	48%	37%	42%	16%	.13
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FIU Defense	12	30	29.8	41.2%	3.49	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	44%	37%	12%	.12
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida International	12	28:40	17.9	31%	54%	5.5	47.4	1.6	1.3	3.9	1.5	2	29.5
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FIU Offense	12	52% (58)	37% (125)	32.9	121.7	3.7	16 (90)	- (124)	2.48 (130)	58% (128)	11% (90)	0.9 (101)
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FIU Defense	12	56% (122)	44% (81)	-	-	-	-	.17 (95)	3.18 (95)	71% (57)	7% (129)	1.03 (93)
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FIU Offense	12	48% (78)	42% (64)	17.2	27.8	229.4	8.2	13.4	24 (38)	11 (72)	.29 (48)	1.6 (40)	32% (79)	27% (107)	.27 (93)	5% (46)	2 (71)
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FIU Defense	12	44% (14)	37% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.05 (5)	1.3 (7)	28% (114)	25% (5)	.11 (4)	5% (108)	1.9 (29)
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)

Florida International's Power Ratings
Florida International's Power Rating: -14.03 #116
Florida International's Offense Rating: 6.54 #111
Florida International's Defense Rating: 20.57 #113
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Florida International's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Florida International's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Florida International's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #74
Florida International's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida International: -14.03 Middle Tennessee: -11.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida International: -10.5 Middle Tennessee: -16.0

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -11.79 #110
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Florida International Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Florida International's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 27
Florida International 26

Projected Total Points: 53

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Middle Tennessee	30	Florida International	56	Middle Tennessee -1.5	Florida International	50.5	Over
2024	11/30	Florida International	35	Middle Tennessee	24	Florida International -9.5	Florida International	50.5	Over
2023	11/11	Middle Tennessee	40	Florida International	6	Middle Tennessee -10.5	Middle Tennessee	50.5	Under
2022	11/26	Florida International	28	Middle Tennessee	33	Middle Tennessee -19.5	Florida International	54.5	Over
2021	11/13	Middle Tennessee	50	Florida International	10	Middle Tennessee -10.5	Middle Tennessee	54.0	Over
2020	10/10	Florida International	28	Middle Tennessee	31	Florida International -7.0	Middle Tennessee	57.0	Over
2019	10/26	Middle Tennessee	50	Florida International	17	Florida International -1	Middle Tennessee	58.5	Over
2018	10/13	Florida International	24	Middle Tennessee	21	Florida International -2	Florida International	61.0	Under
2017	10/07	Middle Tennessee	37	Florida International	17	Middle Tennessee -9	Middle Tennessee	53.5	Over
2016	10/29	Florida International	35	Middle Tennessee	42	Middle Tennessee -17	Florida International	62.5	Over
2015	10/17	Middle Tennessee	42	Florida International	34	Middle Tennessee -7	Middle Tennessee	52.5	Over
2014	11/15	Florida International	38	Middle Tennessee	28	Middle Tennessee -3	Florida International	0
2013	11/09	Middle Tennessee	48	Florida International	0	Middle Tennessee -17	Middle Tennessee	0
2012	10/13	Florida International	30	Middle Tennessee	34
2011	11/26	Middle Tennessee	18	Florida International	31
2010	12/04	Florida International	27	Middle Tennessee	28
2009	11/07	Middle Tennessee	48	Florida International	21
2008	10/11	Florida International	31	Middle Tennessee	21
2007	09/29	Middle Tennessee	47	Florida International	6
2006	08/31	Middle Tennessee	7	Florida International	6
2005	12/03	Florida International	35	Middle Tennessee	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	14	7	9 Overs
Florida International	7	6	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 7	11 - 2	7 - 2	4 - 0
Road Teams	7 - 14	2 - 11	0 - 4	2 - 7

(#116) FIU at (#110) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FIU	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#116	#110
SP+SP+	#107	#127
Perf GradeGrade	#85	#114
OffenseOff	#75	#122
DefenseDef	#79	#72
Spec TeamsST	#77	#131
TalentTal	#107	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Florida International Notes(11/22) 3 straight W's, beat Jax St to get to bowl eligible
(11/22) 3-5 to 6-5 is a great turnaround. Bravo Simmons
(10/29) QB Jenkins inj in Mizzu St, QB2 Pesansky OK
(10/22) Killed by KSU, even yds but 9 flags, 6-17 3rd/4th D
(10/22) Off is functional but mistake prone, Def awful vs KSU
(10/14) DB health is key, depth cannot play FBS ball
(10/14) Huge W @ WKU, rushed for 220+, Def great all night
(9/20) Bad L - killed by Delaware, flags, TO's... woof
(9/17) Def better at all 3 levels, good red zone Def
(9/17) QB Jenkins, RB Owens an upgrade for Off
(9/6) Def is fighting hard, impressed w/ new staff
(8/30) Jenkins OK, run off good vs Beth. Cook, DB?
Florida International Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Florida International on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FIU Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#72
SuccessSuc	#111	#130
ExplosiveExp	#65	#71
PPAPPA	#101	#129
PowerPwr	#111	#121
SP+SP+	#74	#128
Pts POPPO	#21	#126
HavocHav	#70	#108

Florida International Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FIU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#94	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#125	#124
Run ExplRExp	#101	#59
PPAExp	#124	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#58	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#131	#62
TackleTak	-	#26

Florida International Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FIU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#90
PPAExp	#48	#129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#75
F7 HavocF7	#90	#100
DB HavocDB	#46	#101

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	FIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#79
SuccessSuc	#105	#62
ExplosiveExp	#53	#20
PPAPPA	#107	#37
PowerPwr	#91	#113
SP+SP+	#110	#124
Pts POPPO	#128	#39
HavocHav	#113	#129

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	FIU Def
Run GameRun	#86	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	#81
Run ExplRExp	#62	#93
PPAExp	#110	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#125	#101
TackleTak	-	#63

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	FIU Def
Pass GamePass	#52	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#7
PPAExp	#95	#5
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#88
F7 HavocF7	#100	#129
DB HavocDB	#112	#108

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

FIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Middle Tennessee -1.5 (50.5)
Florida International won at Middle Tennessee this year (56-30)

Previous Matchups
Florida International beat Middle Tennessee last year (56-30)
Florida International beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (35-24)
Middle Tennessee beat Florida International in 2023 (40-6)

FIU's OC Nick Coleman (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keyone Jenkins	164	263	62%	1742	9	6	6.6
Joe Pesansky (Tr)	89	159	56%	1021	11	7	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kejon Owens	213	1334	11	6.3	84
Anthony Carrie (Tr)	103	469	5	4.6	53
Devonte Lyons	37	142	1	3.8	35
Sterling Joseph	7	123	2	17.6	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Perry (Tr)	56	840	9	15.0	64
Kyle Mcneal	31	310	1	10.0	30
Dallas Payne (Tr)	27	293	4	10.9	42
Maguire Anderson	25	280	1	11.2	46

View Florida International's Full Roster

FIU's DC Jovan Dewitt (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Chaney Jr	107	8	3	1	1
Josiah Taylor	71	7	1	2	2
Jessiah Mcgrew	67	0	0	0	4
Shamir Sterlin	62	3	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenton Simmons	25	9	7	8	2
Keegan Davis	29	6	6	5	0
Johnny Chaney Jr	107	8	3	1	1
Dante Anderson (Tr)	14	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Mister Clark	57	7	13
Brian Blades	26	0	5
Jessiah Mcgrew	67	0	4

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	219	357	61%	2157	16	7	6.0
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	140	752	4	5.4	72
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Rickey Hunt	34	111	1	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
Myles Butler	52	518	2	10.0	52
Nahzae Cox	40	473	5	11.8	43
Jekail Middlebrook	40	412	3	10.3	48

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	89	3	0	2	2
Anthony Bynum	63	6	3	8	4
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	35	7	5	1	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Damonte Smith	33	11	3	4	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
De'Arre McDonald	29	0	7
Abdul Muhammad	29	0	7
Jackson Lowe	36	2	4