Jacksonville State at Sam Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Jacksonville State logo Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Thursday, October 9th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Jacksonville State -7 (53.5) (-278)  Open: -8.5
Jacksonville State 29 - Sam Houston: 27  (Conference USA)

 
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
JVST coming off BYE
Our Line: Jacksonville State -15.5  (SP+ JVST -22)

Projected Score: JVST: 34 - SHSU: 18 (52)
JVST Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
JVST Travel: 610 miles
Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Jacksonville State at UCF+16.553.5L 10 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.050.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/13 Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.059.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.560.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/27 Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.555.5L 25 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.053.5W 29 - 27ON
Wed 10/15 Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.055.5W 38 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29 Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.554.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/8 Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.546.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.556.5W 35 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.555.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.556.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 12/5 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.062.5L 15 - 19UN
Tue 12/16 Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.047.5W 17 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.556.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.553.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.550.5L 16 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#54 (.19)44% (51)28.147% (34)3.15 (32)24839% (98)1623.73 (65)#67 (.16)42% (74)25.242% (67)42% (69)3.78 (79)56.30.91.7
SHSU#131 (.01)37% (121)17.840% (104)2.67 (116)13335% (127)1842.79 (129)#109 (.22)48% (129)37.847% (118)50% (133)3.85 (89)59.41.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#22 (.27)45% (35)49% (18)3.36 (17)25440% (95)1894.85 (3)#55 (.14)43% (84)44% (79)43% (85)3.81 (70)58.41.11.6
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Offense1428.12443.9%3.730.9214092481625.463%35%47%39%14%.19
SHSU Defense1237.837.847.8%3.851.5 - - - - - 51%47%47%50%14%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Defense1425.229.242.1%3.781.7 - - - - - 51%47%42%42%17%.16
SHSU Offense1217.817.836.9%2.791.3173171331844.343%55%40%35%20%.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Jacksonville State1430:2621.239%53%5.756.30.91.75.42128.6
Sam Houston1228:3016.722%30%6.459.41.31.55.31.8326.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Offense1463% (8)47% (34)46.2247.65.432 (9).21 (26)3.15 (32)68% (95)10% (77)1.1 (17)
SHSU Defense1251% (80)47% (118) - - - - .15 (95)2.89 (72)68% (45)10% (61)0.96 (70)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Defense1451% (83)42% (67) - - - - .11 (76)2.71 (29)79% (119)10% (47)1.06 (114)
SHSU Offense1243% (116)40% (104)30.8132.84.310 (122).07 (91)2.67 (116)66% (107)13% (128)1.09 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Offense1435% (129)39% (98)13.923.4161.86.911.613 (128)6 (34).19 (102)1.5 (79)29% (27)31% (59).31 (66)4% (21)2 (75)
SHSU Defense1247% (57)50% (133) - - - - - - 8 (100).36 (115)1.5 (51)27% (130)35% (126).17 (21)5% (115)1.8 (11)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Defense1447% (45)42% (69) - - - - - - 14 (100).24 (65)1.6 (73)33% (46)30% (80).32 (80)7% (37)2.1 (86)
SHSU Offense1255% (21)35% (127)17.832.41845.710.412 (103)10 (60).01 (133)1.4 (129)35% (124)22% (135).01 (135)7% (106)2 (66)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -10.41  #111
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 9.79  #63
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 20.20  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #88
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #56
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -10.41   Sam Houston: -23.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -5.1   Sam Houston: -27.2




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -23.37  #134
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 0.53  #124
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 20.07  #130
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.2  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.5  #130
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Jacksonville State 34
Sam Houston 18


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Jacksonville State 26
Sam Houston 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Jacksonville State 32
Sam Houston 23

Total Points: 55
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/09Sam Houston27Jacksonville State29Jacksonville State -7Sam Houston53.5Over
202411/23Jacksonville State21Sam Houston11Jacksonville State -5.5Jacksonville State57.5Under
202309/28Sam Houston28Jacksonville State35Jacksonville State -6.5Jacksonville State36.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston012 Overs
Jacksonville State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 10 - 1

(#111) JVST at (#134) SHSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJVSTSHSU
Power RatePwr #111 #134
SP+SP+ #88 #135
Perf GradeGrade #81 #133
OffenseOff #86 #133
DefenseDef #58 #119
Spec TeamsST #82 #36
TalentTal #128 #121
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Jacksonville State Notes
(12/5) Creel is a RB taking snaps. Just an awful QB
(12/3) Have significant injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat WKU to finish 7-1 in conf, play Kenn St in title game
(10/16) HC Kelly has been so much better than I thought
(10/16) RB Cam Cook a beast and criminally underrated
(10/14) QB1 now Caden Creel, Wimsatt (benched) now QB2
(10/10) OG'd SHSU 500-280, had 370 rush, needed GW FG
(10/8) Fr QB Caden Creel replaced Wimsatt in S Miss game
(10/8) QB1 Competition now, Fr Creel mobile but TO issues
(9/22) Off is 4th in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/11) RB Cam Cook (Tr TCU) has been great so far
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
Jacksonville State Injury Report
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
Jacksonville State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffSHSU Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #119
SuccessSuc #51 #129
ExplosiveExp #65 #59
PPAPPA #54 #109
PowerPwr #63 #130
SP+SP+ #56 #135
Pts POPPO #65 #89
HavocHav #48 #100
Jacksonville State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #39 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #118
Run ExplRExp #17 #70
PPAExp #26 #95
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #72
Stuff RateStuff #61 #95
TackleTak -  #123
Jacksonville State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #103 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #133
Pass ExplPExl #79 #51
PPAExp #102 #115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #104
F7 HavocF7 #77 #61
DB HavocDB #21 #115
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffJVST Def
Perf GradePerf #133 #58
SuccessSuc #121 #74
ExplosiveExp #71 #103
PPAPPA #131 #67
PowerPwr #124 #131
SP+SP+ #130 #113
Pts POPPO #129 #79
HavocHav #132 #42
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffJVST Def
Run GameRun #122 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #67
Run ExplRExp #20 #114
PPAExp #91 #76
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #29
Stuff RateStuff #132 #47
TackleTak -  #25
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffJVST Def
Pass GamePass #122 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #127 #69
Pass ExplPExl #129 #73
PPAExp #133 #65
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #48
F7 HavocF7 #128 #47
DB HavocDB #106 #37
Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BBVA Compass Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 87° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Jacksonville State 7.0 (53.5)
Jacksonville State won at Sam Houston this year (29-27)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston last year (21-11)
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (35-28)

  
JVST's OC Clint Trickett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Creel13021162%1514947.2
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)6311256%731426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook (Tr)2961666165.673
Caden Creel182107575.973
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)5226345.144
Khristian Lando5120113.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deondre Johnson (Tr)30724624.177
Brock Rechsteiner36383510.656
Pearson Baldwin26302211.652
Cam Cook (Tr)3028609.554

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Sanders8312252
Walker O'Steen786361
Trevor Woods (Tr)641004
Caleb Nix (Tr)634003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Darrell Prater214400
Malcolm Jones515310
Isaac Walker (Tr)316331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Quon Fegans (Tr)362009
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jaheim Jenkins (Tr)210005

SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Landyn Locke7114150%765445.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown8448755.863
Elijah Green (Tr)5839126.780
Alton McCaskill (Tr)8837114.252
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed30460515.354
Grady O'Neill (Tr)38392110.329
Landan Brown3723706.424
Tim Burns Jr.12228119.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)786110
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Tyler Bailey451102
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)269550
Chauncey Chidi314300
Dylan Frazier414222
Dean Ford326220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emon Allen404005
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014