UTEP at Sam Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, October 15th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
UTEP -3.5 (46.5) (-175) Open: -2.5
UTEP 35 - Sam Houston: 17 (Conference USA)

Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

SHSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: UTEP -12.5 (SP+ UTEP -10.5)
Projected Score: UTEP: 32 - SHSU: 19 (51)
UTEP Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTEP Travel: 677 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTEP at Utah State	+3.5	59.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/6	UTEP vs UT Martin	-7.5	49.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UTEP at Texas	+39.5	52.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/20	UTEP vs UL Monroe	-5.5	47.5	L 25 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+3.5	48.5	L 11 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	UTEP vs Liberty	+1.5	46.5	L 8 - 19	U	N
Wed 10/15	UTEP vs Sam Houston	-3.5	46.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	UTEP at Kennesaw State	+12.5	53.5	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/8	UTEP vs Jacksonville State	+1.5	46.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTEP at Missouri State	+6.5	47.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/22	UTEP vs New Mexico State	-4.0	44.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	UTEP at Delaware	+4.5	55.5	L 31 - 61	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+9.5	60.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 8/29	Sam Houston vs UNLV	+13.5	58.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Sam Houston at Hawai'i	+7.0	47.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Sam Houston at Texas	+39.5	51.5	L 0 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	-1.5	53.5	L 10 - 37	U	N
Thu 10/9	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+7.0	53.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Wed 10/15	Sam Houston vs UTEP	+3.5	46.5	L 17 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+16.5	48.0	L 14 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/8	Sam Houston at Oregon State	+21.0	52.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Sam Houston vs Delaware	+11.5	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee	+6.5	53.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Sam Houston vs Florida International	+10.5	50.5	L 16 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	23.3	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	30.4	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)	17.8	41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)	37.8	47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07
SHSU Defense	13	37.8	37.8	41.8%	3.84	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	37%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13
SHSU Offense	13	17.8	17.8	39.3%	2.97	1.2	19	349	180	168	4.3	57%	43%	41%	38%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1
Sam Houston	13	32:10	18.8	39%	67%	4.6	37.9	1.2	2.1	5.4	2.2	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)
SHSU Defense	13	51% (74)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	3.37 (119)	75% (75)	10% (56)	0.83 (9)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)
SHSU Offense	13	57% (25)	41% (100)	42.5	180.4	4.3	21 (59)	.1 (83)	3.18 (44)	68% (104)	10% (69)	0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)
SHSU Defense	13	48% (60)	37% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.06 (6)	1.4 (9)	32% (57)	25% (11)	.21 (32)	6% (58)	1.8 (12)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)
SHSU Offense	13	43% (113)	38% (105)	16.7	26.8	168.2	6.3	10.1	15 (98)	9 (48)	.13 (114)	1.5 (106)	30% (51)	24% (126)	.13 (130)	5% (47)	2 (95)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.55 #107
UTEP's Offense Rating: 3.75 #123
UTEP's Defense Rating: 15.30 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.5 #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #111
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -11.55 Sam Houston: -26.775

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -17.5 Sam Houston: -27.8

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -26.775 #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 1.86 #130
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.61 #137
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.8 #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #129
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8 #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UTEP 32
Sam Houston 19

Projected Total Points: 51

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/15	Sam Houston	17	UTEP	35	UTEP -3.5	UTEP	46.5	Over
2024	10/03	UTEP	21	Sam Houston	41	Sam Houston -10	Sam Houston	49.5	Over
2023	10/25	Sam Houston	34	UTEP	37	Sam Houston State -4	UTEP	38.5	Over
2003	09/27	UTEP	59	Sam Houston	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	1	1	3 Overs
UTEP	3	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 1	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0

(#107) UTEP at (#136) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#107	#136
SP+SP+	#129	#135
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#134
OffenseOff	#132	#135
DefenseDef	#102	#128
Spec TeamsST	#101	#47
TalentTal	#82	#121
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

UTEP Notes(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report

Sam Houston Notes(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#128
SuccessSuc	#124	#70
ExplosiveExp	#125	#3
PPAPPA	#121	#31
PowerPwr	#123	#137
SP+SP+	#111	#135
Pts POPPO	#132	#75
HavocHav	#126	#58

UTEP Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#109	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#105
Run ExplRExp	#114	#9
PPAExp	#118	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#129
TackleTak	-	#122

UTEP Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#9
PPAExp	#108	#6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#81	#125
F7 HavocF7	#125	#56
DB HavocDB	#110	#58

Sam Houston on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#102
SuccessSuc	#107	#42
ExplosiveExp	#127	#111
PPAPPA	#115	#46
PowerPwr	#130	#83
SP+SP+	#129	#127
Pts POPPO	#129	#78
HavocHav	#53	#34

Sam Houston Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#122	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	#100	#42
Run ExplRExp	#98	#102
PPAExp	#83	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#34	#34
TackleTak	-	#29

Sam Houston Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#106	#115
PPAExp	#114	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#83	#123
F7 HavocF7	#69	#18
DB HavocDB	#47	#66

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BBVA Compass Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
UTEP 3.5 (46.5)
UTEP won at Sam Houston this year (35-17)

Previous Matchups
UTEP beat Sam Houston last year (35-17)
Sam Houston beat UTEP in 2024 (41-21)
UTEP beat Sam Houston in 2023 (37-34)

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	104	190	55%	1163	8	9	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashten Emory	119	569	4	4.8	56
Skyler Locklear	103	396	8	3.8	63
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)	46	225	1	4.9	94
Kenny Odom	13	57	0	4.4	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wondame Davis Jr.	25	604	6	24.2	75
Kenny Odom	62	582	6	9.4	74
Eric Willis III	27	290	2	10.7	43
Josh Schuchts	21	232	3	11.0	64

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micah Davey (Tr)	114	8	1	3	0
Jayden Wilson (Tr)	92	8	1	6	0
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)	41	10	5	3	1
Kadarion Johnson	55	10	4	5	1
Elijah Baldwin	23	6	4	4	4
Ashaad Hall (Tr)	24	4	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Content	58	6	0	1	6
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	104	182	57%	1108	5	4	6.1
Landyn Locke	71	141	50%	765	4	4	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landan Brown	84	487	5	5.8	63
Elijah Green (Tr)	58	391	2	6.7	80
Alton McCaskill (Tr)	88	371	1	4.2	52
Hunter Watson	74	276	2	3.7	55

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Reed	30	460	5	15.3	54
Grady O'Neill (Tr)	38	392	1	10.3	29
Landan Brown	37	237	0	6.4	24
Tim Burns Jr.	12	228	1	19.0	59

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Fish (Tr)	78	6	1	1	0
CJ Brown (Tr)	64	2	0	0	4
Tyler Bailey	45	1	1	0	2
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)	26	9	5	5	0
Chauncey Chidi	31	4	3	0	0
Dean Ford	32	6	2	2	0
Dylan Frazier	41	4	2	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emon Allen	40	4	0	0	5
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	0	1	4
AJ Edwards	41	3	1	1	4