Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Friday, October 31st 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -16.5 (48.0) (-900)  Open: -17.0 | 50.0
Louisiana Tech 55 - Sam Houston: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
LT 2nd straight Home Game
SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -20.5  (SP+ LT -26)

Projected Score: SHSU: 15 - LT: 35 (50)
LT Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
SHSU Travel: 211 miles
Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.556.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.553.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.550.5L 16 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.557.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.043.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.545.5W 34 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.545.0W 42 - 30OY
Tue 12/30 Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.051.0W 23 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#131 (.01)37% (121)17.840% (104)2.67 (116)13335% (127)1842.79 (129)#109 (.22)48% (129)37.847% (118)50% (133)3.85 (89)59.41.31.5
LT#85 (.15)41% (93)27.343% (80)2.98 (60)18139% (103)1553.33 (107)#27 (.07)39% (30)20.840% (40)38% (38)3.05 (22)68.711.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1217.815.136.9%2.791.3173171331844.343%55%40%35%20%.01
LT Defense1320.817.338.6%3.051.7 - - - - - 45%53%40%38%19%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1237.83947.8%3.851.5 - - - - - 51%47%47%50%14%.22
LT Offense1327.336.540.8%3.331183371811554.858%40%43%39%14%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1228:3016.722%30%6.459.41.31.55.31.8326.8
Louisiana Tech1327:3518.243%50%6.868.711.75.31.4728.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1243% (116)40% (104)30.8132.84.310 (122).07 (91)2.67 (116)66% (107)13% (128)1.09 (20)
LT Defense1345% (15)40% (40) - - - - .05 (41)2.72 (33)68% (47)9% (78)1.12 (128)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1251% (80)47% (118) - - - - .15 (95)2.89 (72)68% (45)10% (61)0.96 (70)
LT Offense1358% (15)43% (80)37.5181.24.828 (88).16 (47)2.98 (60)75% (49)8% (42)1.05 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1255% (21)35% (127)17.832.41845.710.412 (103)10 (60).01 (133)1.4 (129)35% (124)22% (135).01 (135)7% (106)2 (66)
LT Defense1353% (121)38% (38) - - - - - - 20 (4).14 (25)1.6 (79)35% (19)32% (94).25 (56)10% (1)1.9 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1247% (57)50% (133) - - - - - - 8 (100).36 (115)1.5 (51)27% (130)35% (126).17 (21)5% (115)1.8 (11)
LT Offense1340% (124)39% (103)14.422.6155.46.910.87 (121)9 (34).19 (99)1.5 (70)30% (40)26% (112).23 (97)6% (54)2.3 (9)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -19.54  #134
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 0.53  #124
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 20.07  #130
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.2  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.5  #130
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -19.54   Louisiana Tech: -2.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.2   Louisiana Tech: -0.8




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -2.64  #107
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 0.92  #122
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 10.40  #81
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.8  #76
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 35
Sam Houston 15


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisiana Tech 34
Sam Houston 17

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana Tech 35
Sam Houston 18

Total Points: 53
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/31Louisiana Tech55Sam Houston14Louisiana Tech -16.5Louisiana Tech48.0Over
202410/29Sam Houston9Louisiana Tech3Sam Houston -10.5Louisiana Tech45.5Under
202311/11Louisiana Tech27Sam Houston42Louisiana Tech -8.5Sam Houston49.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech122 Overs
Sam Houston211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#134) SHSU at (#107) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSULT
Power RatePwr #134 #107
SP+SP+ #135 #76
Perf GradeGrade #133 #85
OffenseOff #133 #97
DefenseDef #119 #50
Spec TeamsST #36 #49
TalentTal #121 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffLT Def
Perf GradePerf #133 #50
SuccessSuc #121 #30
ExplosiveExp #71 #119
PPAPPA #131 #27
PowerPwr #124 #81
SP+SP+ #130 #70
Pts POPPO #129 #22
HavocHav #132 #12
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #122 #55
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #40
Run ExplRExp #20 #128
PPAExp #91 #41
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #33
Stuff RateStuff #132 #12
TackleTak -  #79
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #122 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #127 #38
Pass ExplPExl #129 #79
PPAExp #133 #25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #74 #120
F7 HavocF7 #128 #78
DB HavocDB #106 #1
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffSHSU Def
Perf GradePerf #97 #119
SuccessSuc #93 #129
ExplosiveExp #74 #59
PPAPPA #85 #109
PowerPwr #122 #130
SP+SP+ #77 #135
Pts POPPO #107 #89
HavocHav #48 #100
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #28 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #118
Run ExplRExp #35 #70
PPAExp #47 #95
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #72
Stuff RateStuff #46 #95
TackleTak -  #123
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #117 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #133
Pass ExplPExl #70 #51
PPAExp #99 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #62 #104
F7 HavocF7 #42 #61
DB HavocDB #54 #115
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 52°
Rematch from Week 10
Louisiana Tech -16.5 (48.0)
Louisiana Tech won vs Sam Houston this year (55-14)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Louisiana Tech last year (9-3)
Sam Houston beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (42-27)

  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Landyn Locke7114150%765445.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown8448755.863
Elijah Green (Tr)5839126.780
Alton McCaskill (Tr)8837114.252
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed30460515.354
Grady O'Neill (Tr)38392110.329
Landan Brown3723706.424
Tim Burns Jr.12228119.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)786110
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Tyler Bailey451102
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)269550
Chauncey Chidi314300
Dylan Frazier414222
Dean Ford326220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emon Allen404005
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker10215566%1252538.1
Trey Kukuk588767%530236.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin12160585.050
Trey Kukuk7948856.258
Omiri Wiggins9746844.837
Andrew Burnette7745385.998
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley37441011.973
Devin Gandy (Tr)21366217.442
Marlion Jackson17283116.642
Clay Thevenin2925108.730

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields903015
Mekhi Mason6215434
Jadon Mayfield579440
Jakari Foster511034
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Mayfield579440
Mekhi Mason6215434
Donovan Rieman285301
Sifa Leota489268
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.472009
Sifa Leota489268
Cedric Woods321008