Sam Houston at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI

Bearkats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (25 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#110)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

Our Line: Hawai'i -9.5 (SP+ SHSU -0.5)
Projected Score: SHSU: 19 - HAW: 28 (46)
HAW Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
SHSU Travel: 3875 miles, 5 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+8.0	0.0
Fri 8/29	Sam Houston vs UNLV	+13.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	Sam Houston at Hawai'i	+9.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Sam Houston at Texas	+49
Thu 10/2	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+1.5
Thu 10/9	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	-0
Wed 10/15	Sam Houston vs UTEP	+1.5
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+4
Sat 11/8	Sam Houston at Oregon State	+17.5
Sat 11/15	Sam Houston vs Delaware	-1
Sat 11/22	Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee	+3
Sat 11/29	Sam Houston vs Florida International	+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Hawai'i vs Stanford	+2.5	0.0
Sat 8/30	Hawai'i at Arizona	+13.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	Hawai'i vs Sam Houston	-9.5
Sat 9/13	Hawai'i vs Portland State	-12.5
Sat 9/20	Hawai'i vs Fresno State	+1.5
Sat 9/27	Hawai'i at Air Force	+2
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Hawai'i vs Utah State	-7
Sat 10/18	Hawai'i at Colorado State	+4
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Hawai'i at San José State	+8.5
Sat 11/8	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Hawai'i at UNLV	+8.5
Sat 11/29	Hawai'i vs Wyoming	-4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)	23.8	41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)	20.5	47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	13	23.8	24.6	39.3%	2.97	1.2	19	349	180	168	4.3	57%	43%	41%	38%	15%	.1
HAW Defense	12	26	19.6	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	13	20.5	23.6	41.8%	3.84	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	37%	17%	.11
HAW Offense	12	22.3	27.1	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	13	32:10	18.8	39%	67%	4.6	37.9	1.2	2.1	5.4	2.2	2	30.4
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	13	57% (25)	41% (100)	42.5	180.4	4.3	21 (59)	.1 (83)	3.18 (44)	68% (104)	10% (69)	0.9 (98)
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	13	51% (74)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	3.37 (119)	75% (75)	10% (56)	0.83 (9)
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	13	43% (113)	38% (105)	16.7	26.8	168.2	6.3	10.1	15 (98)	9 (48)	.13 (114)	1.5 (106)	30% (51)	24% (126)	.13 (130)	5% (47)	2 (95)
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	13	48% (60)	37% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.06 (6)	1.4 (9)	32% (57)	25% (11)	.21 (32)	6% (58)	1.8 (12)
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -24.82 #134
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 2.29 #129
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.11 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 372.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 384
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -24.82 Hawai'i: -8.63

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -11.1 Hawai'i: -11.5

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -8.63 #95
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 9.05 #100
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.81 #97
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #108
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 498.5
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 28
Sam Houston 19

Projected Total Points: 46

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Sam Houston	31	Hawai'i	13	Sam Houston	Sam Houston -3.5	Sam Houston	48.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	0	0	0 Overs
Sam Houston	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#134) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -24.82 #134
Offense Rating: 2.29 #129
Defense Rating: 27.11 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #118
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #90
Talent Rating: 372.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Sam Houston Notes
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. 2 portals inc. Green (IU)
(3/26) WR some exp, replacing a lot. 2 portal adds
(3/26) OL returns 6 w/ starting exp. Good rush LY
(3/26) Def awful, returns little. 9 portals, 5 DBs
(3/26) OC Patterson was SHSU RB coach past 2 yrs

Sam Houston Ratings Matchup Hawai'i

Power #134

#95

Off #129

#100

Def #130

#97

Talent #125

#124

SP+ #107

#108

SP+ Off #118

#120

SP+ Def #90

#87

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Hawai'i last year (31-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | HAW
Depth Chart: SHSU | HAW
Rosters: SHSU | HAW

(#95) Hawai'i Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.63 #95
Offense Rating: 9.05 #100
Defense Rating: 19.81 #97
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #108
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87
Talent Rating: 398.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Hawai'i Notes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) New QB SO. Micah Alejado has good command
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
(4/7) Def bad LY, returns some. 4 portal DL added
(4/7) HC Chang slow build, needs a good year, bowl
(4/7) Offense could jump TY, can Def improve?

Sam Houston's OC Zack Patterson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	152	253	60%	1598	11	8	6.3
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)	1	1	100%	2	0	0	2.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Watson	152	623	7	4.1	46
Elijah Green (Tr)	29	201	5	6.9	51
Qua'Vez Humphreys	3	21	0	7.0	10
Alton McCaskill (Tr)	7	17	0	2.4	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qua'Vez Humphreys	18	362	4	20.1	67
Michael Phoenix II	13	205	3	15.8	50
Malik Phillips	2	25	0	12.5	13
Shane Johnson	2	14	0	7.0	7

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

Sam Houston's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	1	2
Cecil Powell (Tr)	24	1	0	1
Chatavies Johnson	15	1	0	0
Emon Allen	12	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	1	2
Jace Arnold (Tr)	1	0	0	0
Railyn Adams	1	0	0	0
Gannon Tullos	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	1	2
Cecil Powell (Tr)	24	1	0	1
Emon Allen	12	2	0	1

Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Cam Barfield	33	158	0	4.8	21
Christian Vaughn	17	109	0	6.4	30
Micah Alejado	19	59	0	3.1	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Landon Sims	13	153	0	11.8	52
Karsyn Pupunu	6	80	0	13.3	25

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Wynden Ho'Ohuli	14	4	2	3	1
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	13	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen	33	1	4
Jaheim Wilson-Jones	16	1	3