Sam Houston at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (11:59 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -7.0 (47.5) (-370)  Open: -10.0 | 49.0
Hawai'i 37 - Sam Houston: 20

 
Bearkats (0 - 3) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 39 (22 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.5 - 9.5 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Hawai'i -12.5   (SP+ HAW -8)
Projected Score: SHSU: 19 - HAW: 31 (50)
HAW Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
SHSU Travel: 3875 miles, 5 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (3 - 1) (2 - 2 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+40.551.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+7
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+3
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+14
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+18.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+7.5
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee-1
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+3.047.5
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State-6
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.5
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Hawai'i at UNLV+10
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#123 (.05)37% (111)21.738% (105)2.79 (87)13637% (108)1853.14 (113)#85 (.16)44% (103)38.740% (72)49% (118)4.38 (100)6811.7
HAW#114 (.07)40% (97)22.341% (92)2.82 (85)9940% (94)2443.26 (106)#50 (.07)35% (38)20.837% (58)34% (37)3.15 (56)86.520.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense321.72237.4%3.141183211361854.244%55%38%37%19%.05
HAW Defense420.814.335.2%3.150.8 - - - - - 47%52%37%34%16%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense338.73944.5%4.381.7 - - - - - 44%56%40%49%16%.16
HAW Offense422.327.740%3.26221343992443.436%64%41%40%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston328:0917.714%30%76811.752127.4
Hawai'i431:3920.837%71%8.586.520.84.82.3128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense344% (103)38% (105)32.3135.74.24 (79).06 (93)2.79 (87)73% (66)12% (114)1.13 (39)
HAW Defense447% (50)37% (58) - - - - .1 (89)3.07 (100)86% (112)9% (90)1.11 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense344% (30)40% (72) - - - - -.08 (24)2.97 (89)69% (66)9% (80)0.68 (10)
HAW Offense436% (131)41% (92)28.8993.40 (135)-.12 (130)2.82 (85)67% (86)9% (80)0.64 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense355% (37)37% (108)18.73118569.92 (102)3 (92).07 (121)1.3 (112)40% (130)22% (116)-.07 (131)7% (110)1.7 (105)
HAW Defense452% (85)34% (37) - - - - - - 3 (28).08 (33)1.2 (9)35% (49)23% (36).17 (50)8% (30)1.9 (54)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense356% (108)49% (118) - - - - - - 2 (56).36 (110)1.6 (89)31% (90)36% (116).17 (47)7% (45)1.8 (52)
HAW Offense464% (4)40% (94)26.843.8244.35.69.17 (23)4 (121).18 (97)1.4 (109)35% (110)29% (87).3 (77)8% (122)2 (64)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -18.55 #125
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: -0.11 #132
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 18.43 #113
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #126
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.9 #126
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #117

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -18.55   Hawai'i: -6.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -18.6   Hawai'i: -10.3




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -6.295 #100
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 38.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 31
Sam Houston 19


Total Points: 50

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.7
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Hawai'i37Sam Houston20Hawai'iHawai'i -7.0Hawai'i47.5Over
202409/14Sam Houston31Hawai'i13Sam HoustonSam Houston -3.5Sam Houston48.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i111 Overs
Sam Houston111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#125) Sam Houston Info
Power Rating: -18.55 #125
Offense Rating: -0.11 #132
Defense Rating: 18.43 #113
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.9 #126
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #117
Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.14 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Poor OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Sam Houston has lost 2 straight
Sam Houston has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Sam Houston Notes
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. 2 portals inc. Green (IU)
(3/26) WR some exp, replacing a lot. 2 portal adds

Sam Houston Highlights

Sam Houston Deficiencies
Sam Houston offense is really bad (#111)
Sam Houston Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#112)
Sam Houston offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#113)
Sam Houston run game is really bad (#105)
Sam Houston pass game is really bad (#108)
Sam Houston offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Sam Houston Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Sam Houston has a bad defense (#103)
Sam Houston has a bad red zone defense (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatHAWSHSU
OverallOver#87#98
OffenseOff#107#110
DefenseDef#47#71
Special TeamsST#59#43
PassingPass#101#104
RushingRush#82#103
Run BlockRBLK#84#91
Pass BlockPBLK#102#96
Route RunningWR Rt#105#103
TacklingTkl#90#96
Run DefenseR Def#98#48
Pass Rush DefPRush#45#59
Coverage DefCov#4#86

Rematch from Week 2
Hawai'i -7.0 (47.5)
Hawai'i won vs Sam Houston this year (37-20)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Hawai'i last year (31-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | HAW
Depth Chart: SHSU | HAW
Rosters: SHSU | HAW
(#100) Hawai'i Info
Power Rating: -6.295 #100
Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.26 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.15 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Hawai'i has lost 1 straight
Hawai'i has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Hawai'i Notes
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
(4/7) Def bad LY, returns some. 4 portal DL added
(4/7) Offense could jump TY, can Def improve?

Hawai'i Highlights
Hawai'i is Undefeated at Home

Hawai'i Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Hawai'i Secondary is very good (#30)
Hawai'i defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Hawai'i Deficiencies
Hawai'i has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Hawai'i Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Hawai'i Commits a Lot of Penalties (#136)
Hawai'i throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Hawai'i offense is not Explosive (#113)
Hawai'i offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#106)
Hawai'i Does Not Stuff Runs (#108)
Hawai'i has a bad defensive line (#100)


  
Sam Houston's OC Zack Patterson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson305258%310016.0
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)203165%177125.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hunter Watson2410824.555
Landan Brown139417.253
Elijah Green (Tr)247603.211
Alton McCaskill (Tr)117216.552
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Green (Tr)11124111.335
Grady O'Neill (Tr)665010.829
Malik Phillips660010.022
Tim Burns Jr.159159.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)211003
Emon Allen183001
Antavious Fish (Tr)170000
Chatavies Johnson170000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AJ Edwards163102
JaMair Diaz (Tr)131110
Tokyo Gordon122100
Chauncey Chidi112100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)211003
Cecil Powell (Tr)120003
AJ Edwards163102

Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Micah Alejado457064%367215.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims3915403.919
Cam Barfield218904.213
Luke Weaver277302.713
Christian Vaughn32207.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock2623539.047
Landon Sims1815518.628
Karsyn Pupunu1311408.815
Brandon White (Tr)1211109.327

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Jalen Smith180001
Elijah Palmer173003
Jamih Otis170000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III93320
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina124220
Qwyn Williams (Tr)92200
Peter Manuma251114
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Elijah Palmer173003
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen110003