Oklahoma State at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (4:00 PM EST)
UCF -13.5 (47.5) (-550) Open: -14.0
UCF 17 - Oklahoma State: 14 (Big 12)

Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -11 (SP+ UCF -14)
Projected Score: OKST: 19 - UCF: 30 (48)
UCF Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
OKST Travel: 1060 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Oklahoma State vs UT Martin	-26.0	56.5	W 27 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oklahoma State at Oregon	+28.5	55.5	L 3 - 69	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19	Oklahoma State vs Tulsa	-10.5	54.5	L 12 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/27	Oklahoma State vs Baylor	+21.0	58.5	L 27 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Oklahoma State at Arizona	+21.5	56.5	L 13 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oklahoma State vs Houston	+14.5	47.5	L 17 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/18	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	+23.5	57.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/25	Oklahoma State at Texas Tech	+37.5	56.5	L 0 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/1	Oklahoma State at Kansas	+24.5	54.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+19.5	50.5	L 6 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Oklahoma State at UCF	+13.5	47.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Oklahoma State vs Iowa State	+13.5	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 5, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	53.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-38.0	51.0	W 68 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	-7.0	46.5	W 34 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+5.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+4.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+10.0	55.5	L 11 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	46.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	L 3 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/7	UCF vs Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-13.5	47.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 4, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	#52 (.21)	43% (63)	14.2	43% (86)	2.79 (107)	114	44% (47)	265	4.22 (42)	#131 (.34)	46% (109)	33.3	47% (107)	44% (108)	3.93 (82)	43.2	1.8	1.3
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	24.3	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	23.6	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	12	14.2	10.2	43.1%	4.22	1.8	20	379	114	265	3.9	42%	58%	43%	44%	15%	.21
UCF Defense	12	23.6	15.7	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	12	33.3	41.4	45.6%	3.93	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	44%	15%	.34
UCF Offense	12	24.3	32.6	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	12	27:03	20.4	35%	65%	5	43.2	1.8	1.3	5.5	2.1	1	27.1
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	12	42% (117)	43% (86)	29.4	114.2	3.9	18 (78)	.04 (109)	2.79 (107)	74% (61)	7% (19)	0.87 (119)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	12	50% (65)	47% (107)	-	-	-	-	.31 (133)	3.43 (126)	73% (68)	8% (112)	1.25 (133)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	12	58% (17)	44% (47)	22.3	37.5	264.7	7.1	11.9	22 (46)	17 (127)	.34 (30)	1.6 (67)	31% (66)	31% (82)	.32 (77)	7% (109)	1.9 (99)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	12	50% (73)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.37 (123)	1.8 (124)	32% (56)	36% (119)	.46 (120)	6% (53)	2.1 (88)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -7.42 #88
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49 #105
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -7.42 UCF: -0.475

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -15.1 UCF: -1.2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -0.475 #78
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79 #93
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 30
Oklahoma State 19

Projected Total Points: 48

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UCF	17	Oklahoma State	14	UCF -13.5	Oklahoma State	47.5	Under
2023	11/11	UCF	45	Oklahoma State	3	Oklahoma State -2.5	UCF	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	2	1	0 Overs
Oklahoma State	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#88) OKST at (#78) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#88	#78
SP+SP+	#121	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#81
OffenseOff	#133	#123
DefenseDef	#118	#21
Spec TeamsST	#125	#32
TalentTal	#32	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#32

Oklahoma State Notes(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report

UCF Notes(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report

Oklahoma State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#21
SuccessSuc	#63	#45
ExplosiveExp	#69	#95
PPAPPA	#52	#63
PowerPwr	#105	#65
SP+SP+	#131	#51
Pts POPPO	#42	#118
HavocHav	#45	#64

Oklahoma State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#126	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#12
Run ExplRExp	#119	#90
PPAExp	#109	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#17
TackleTak	-	#31

Oklahoma State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	#47	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#64
PPAExp	#30	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#37	#33
F7 HavocF7	#19	#28
DB HavocDB	#109	#118

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#118
SuccessSuc	#28	#109
ExplosiveExp	#73	#132
PPAPPA	#58	#131
PowerPwr	#93	#76
SP+SP+	#98	#100
Pts POPPO	#86	#82
HavocHav	#51	#89

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#107
Run ExplRExp	#11	#133
PPAExp	#7	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#119
TackleTak	-	#89

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#124
PPAExp	#123	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#44	#111
F7 HavocF7	#66	#112
DB HavocDB	#48	#53

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81°

Rematch from Week 13
UCF -13.5 (47.5)
UCF won vs Oklahoma State this year (17-14)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Oklahoma State last year (17-14)
UCF beat Oklahoma State in 2023 (45-3)

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zane Flores	155	262	59%	1454	3	7	5.5
Sam Jackson	35	66	53%	351	1	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Fields Jr.	124	614	1	5.0	41
Trenten Howland	63	243	3	3.9	24
Sesi Vailahi	42	152	2	3.6	14
Kalib Hicks (Tr)	44	128	0	2.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman	53	481	4	9.1	33
Terrill Davis (Tr)	29	373	0	12.9	41
Shamar Rigby (Tr)	25	351	1	14.0	48
Rodney Fields Jr.	28	276	1	9.9	63

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Bryan McCoy (Tr)	71	2	0	4	1
Brandon Rawls	68	5	2	0	0
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)	39	2	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)	27	12	4	7	1
Malik Charles (Tr)	28	3	3	1	0
Taje Mccoy (Tr)	21	4	2	1	1
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.	24	2	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenneth Harris	33	2	1	1	5
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Cam Smith	34	1	0	1	4

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	200	315	64%	2151	10	8	6.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Montgomery	143	705	4	4.9	45
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	71	554	7	7.8	87
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25
Jacurri Brown	16	142	2	8.9	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade (Tr)	43	523	5	12.2	83
Waden Charles	26	290	0	11.2	30
DJ Black	22	273	2	12.4	82

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	60	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Lawrence	28	11	7	3	2
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Nyjalik Kelly	45	8	2	8	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	27	0	8
DJ Bell (Tr)	17	0	4
Antoine Jackson	39	1	4