UCF at Texas Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo   UCF Knights at Texas Tech Red Raiders  Texas Tech logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Texas Tech -24.5 (48.5) (-3000)  Open: -23.5 | 47.5
Texas Tech 48 - UCF: 9  (Big 12)

 
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
TTU 2nd straight Home Game
TTU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -29  (SP+ TTU -29)

Projected Score: UCF: 10 - TTU: 39 (50)
TTU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
UCF Travel: 1269 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Red Raiders (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (48 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.563.5W 67 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.560.0W 62 - 14ON
Sat 9/13 Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.561.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Texas Tech at Utah+3.558.5W 34 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas Tech at Houston-13.551.5W 35 - 11UY
Sat 10/11 Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.558.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.552.5L 22 - 26UN
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.556.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.551.5W 43 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 Texas Tech vs BYU-13.550.5W 29 - 7UY
Sat 11/15 Texas Tech vs UCF-24.548.5W 48 - 9OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.553.5W 49 - 0UY
Sat 12/6 Texas Tech vs BYU-12.550.5W 34 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.550.5L 0 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)24.352% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)23.637% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)39.445% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)11.344% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TTU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1224.312.846.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21
TTU Defense1311.38.743.6%3.971.6 - - - - - 45%54%44%44%13%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1223.634.639.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
TTU Offense1339.447.944.2%4.731.5234251502754.545%55%45%43%14%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Texas Tech1327:5022.849%52%759.41.51.64.61.5231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)
TTU Defense1345% (16)44% (76) - - - - .12 (69)2.75 (30)62% (14)8% (108)1.08 (111)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
TTU Offense1345% (104)45% (49)33.2149.64.524 (45).17 (46)3.17 (45)72% (81)8% (38)1.05 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)
TTU Defense1354% (120)44% (101) - - - - - - 14 (23).33 (108)1.7 (106)31% (91)36% (120).45 (116)4% (124)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
TTU Offense1355% (27)43% (51)24.338.6275.47.111.330 (9)9 (48).31 (44)1.6 (77)32% (81)34% (39).39 (45)6% (66)2 (89)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -4.75  #79
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79  #94
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -4.75   Texas Tech: 26.095

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.2   Texas Tech: 27.6




Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 26.095  #10
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 17.67  #39
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -1.92  #3
2025 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20  #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.6  #3
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3  #3

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 39
UCF 10


Projected Total Points: 50
Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.9
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.7

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Texas Tech48UCF9Texas Tech -24.5Texas Tech48.5Over
202311/18Texas Tech24UCF23Texas Tech -2.0UCF59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas Tech211 Overs
UCF011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#79) UCF at (#10) TTU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFTTU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #79 #10
SP+SP+ #76 #3
Perf GradeGrade #81 #3
OffenseOff #123 #22
DefenseDef #21 #1
Spec TeamsST #32 #6
TalentTal #72 #28
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #26
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Texas Tech Notes
(10/27) QB Morton cleared to play vs Kansas State
(10/26) QB2 Hammond out for the season (tore ACL)
(10/22) DT Gil Howard out until postseason?
(10/18) Pass Def torched by ASU, Off only 276 yds w/o Morton
(10/18) QB Hammond was bad, Run Off bad vs ASU.
(9/23) QB Will Hammond looked better than Morton
(9/22) Has 3 guys in top 15 in QB hurries thru 4 games
(9/20) Class of B12, killed Utah, Def best in conference
(8/18) #1 RB Q Joyner torn ACL, out for the season
(6/14) WR #1 Douglas, 2 Eakin, 3 Virgil missed spring
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
Texas Tech Injury Report
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffTTU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #123 #1
SuccessSuc #28 #93
ExplosiveExp #73 #120
PPAPPA #58 #104
PowerPwr #94 #3
SP+SP+ #98 #3
Pts POPPO #86 #83
HavocHav #51 #123
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #68 #1
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #76
Run ExplRExp #11 #111
PPAExp #7 #69
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #30
Stuff RateStuff #16 #35
TackleTak -  #1
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #130 #1
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #101
Pass ExplPExl #76 #106
PPAExp #123 #108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #44 #2
F7 HavocF7 #66 #108
DB HavocDB #48 #124
Texas Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTTU OffUCF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #22 #21
SuccessSuc #50 #45
ExplosiveExp #40 #95
PPAPPA #33 #63
PowerPwr #39 #66
SP+SP+ #7 #51
Pts POPPO #7 #118
HavocHav #36 #64
Texas Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #22 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #12
Run ExplRExp #42 #90
PPAExp #46 #39
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #13
Stuff RateStuff #51 #17
TackleTak -  #31
Texas Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTTU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #37 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #84
Pass ExplPExl #77 #64
PPAExp #44 #81
Pass Block/RushP Blk #23 #33
F7 HavocF7 #38 #28
DB HavocDB #66 #118
Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Texas Tech -24.5 (48.5)
Texas Tech won vs UCF this year (48-9)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat UCF last year (48-9)
Texas Tech beat UCF in 2023 (24-23)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004

TTU's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton21933366%27802268.3
Will Hammond6810863%668736.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Dickey2111138145.471
J'Koby Williams15486665.650
Will Hammond4329957.064
Adam Hill4524005.336
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Douglas53830715.761
Reginald Virgil57705612.442
Coy Eakin49653613.342
Terrance Carter (Tr)55624511.350

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez12210116
Ben Roberts884035
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)756106
John Curry734124
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Bailey (Tr)512015103
Romello Height (Tr)371110131
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)4010574
Lee Hunter (Tr)4211330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez12210116
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)756106
Brice Pollock (Tr)474015