UCF at Texas Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#17)Texas Tech logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, TX  (Big 12)

 
Knights (2 - 0) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 43 - 9 (43 - 9 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
TTU 2nd straight Home Game
TTU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -19.5   (SP+ TTU -15)

Projected Score: UCF: 20 - TTU: 39 (59)
TTU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
UCF Travel: 1269 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Red Raiders (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 58 - 9 (58 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 1.5 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-6.548.5
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+2.5
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+1
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+9.5
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+8
Sat 11/8 UCF vs Houston-4
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+19.5
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+9

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.563.5W 67 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.560.0W 62 - 14ON
Sat 9/13 Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.561.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Texas Tech at Utah+3.058.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas Tech at Houston-16
Sat 10/11 Texas Tech vs Kansas-16
Sat 10/18 Texas Tech at Arizona State-6
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-31.5
Sat 11/1 Texas Tech at Kansas State-14.5
Sat 11/8 Texas Tech vs BYU-13
Sat 11/15 Texas Tech vs UCF-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech at West Virginia-14

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#37 (.32)41% (90)42.538% (107)2.52 (111)23344% (68)2594.25 (53)#25 (-)36% (40)8.539% (70)31% (21)2.13 (18)67.50.52
TTU#6 (.51)60% (6)5867% (1)3.73 (14)20755% (17)3605.42 (15)#1 (-.43)15% (1)9.34% (1)22% (3)2.8 (44)66.711.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense242.542.541%4.250.5224922332596.946%54%38%44%12%.32
TTU Defense39.39.314.5%2.81.7 - - - - - 42%58%4%22%21%-.43
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense28.58.535.6%2.132 - - - - - 60%39%39%31%24%0
TTU Offense3585859.7%5.421295672073605.843%57%67%55%7%.51

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF227:5821.546%100%7.567.50.528.52132.5
Texas Tech329:432956%50%866.711.75.72.7138.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense246% (95)38% (107)342336.97 (38).17 (56)2.52 (111)75% (52)9% (71)1.62 (2)
TTU Defense342% (17)4% (1) - - - - -.43 (1)0.53 (2)0% (2)14% (25)1.61 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense260% (125)39% (70) - - - - .08 (72)2.69 (59)71% (72)16% (12)1.22 (114)
TTU Offense343% (109)67% (1)36207.35.88 (26).37 (18)3.73 (14)71% (67)6% (16)0.78 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense254% (39)44% (68)1828.52599.114.42 (102)0 (1).44 (37)1.9 (11)34% (106)33% (54).63 (26)3% (30)2.5 (12)
TTU Defense358% (123)22% (3) - - - - - - 4 (12)-.43 (1)1.2 (11)51% (1)11% (3)-.33 (2)7% (48)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense239% (12)31% (21) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.12 (13)1 (4)36% (40)28% (62).17 (48)9% (19)1.4 (9)
TTU Offense357% (24)55% (17)2636.73609.813.914 (1)2 (60).62 (14)1.5 (81)22% (11)47% (8).87 (5)1% (3)2.2 (34)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 9.52 #54
UCF's Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
UCF's Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 9.52   Texas Tech: 26.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5   Texas Tech: 19.4




Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 26.54 #14
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 25.75 #18
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -2.93 #15
2025 Talent Rating: 886.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20 #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.4 #12
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UCF Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 42.5
Defense: 8.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.5

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 39
UCF 20


Total Points: 59

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 58 PPG
Offense at Home: 58
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.3

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/18Texas Tech24UCF23Texas TechTexas Tech -2.0UCF59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas Tech100 Overs
UCF011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#54) UCF Info
Power Rating: 9.52 #54
Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.25 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF has lost 7 straight
UCF has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

UCF Notes
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds

UCF Highlights
UCF in Undefeated

UCF offense is explosive (#3)
UCF offense is good on 3rd downs
UCF defense is really good in red zone (#18)
UCF has a good pass defense (#21)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)
UCF Secondary is very good (#19)
UCF has a great TO Margin (#11)

UCF Deficiencies
UCF Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#108)
UCF run game is really bad (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTTUUCF
OverallOver#1#28
OffenseOff#7#52
DefenseDef#1#29
Special TeamsST#20#3
PassingPass#17#71
RushingRush#7#16
Run BlockRBLK#49#57
Pass BlockPBLK#13#57
Route RunningWR Rt#3#67
TacklingTkl#2#53
Run DefenseR Def#1#31
Pass Rush DefPRush#2#6
Coverage DefCov#9#66

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat UCF in 2023 (24-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | TTU
Depth Chart: UCF | TTU
Rosters: UCF | TTU
(#14) Texas Tech Info
Power Rating: 26.54 #14
Offense Rating: 25.75 #18
Defense Rating: -2.93 #15
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.4 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #39
Talent Rating: 886.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20 #26
Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 60%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.42 PPO
Great Run Success 67%
Great Pass Success 55%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 15%
Good in Scoring Position 2.8 PPO
Great Run Def Success 4%
Great Pass Def Success 22%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Texas Tech has lost 7 straight
Texas Tech has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Texas Tech Notes
(8/18) #1 RB Q Joyner torn ACL, out for the season
(6/14) WR #1 Douglas, 2 Eakin, 3 Virgil missed spring
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp but 46% comes from portals
(4/19) QB Morton a top B12 QB, missed spring (inj)
(4/4) DE Bailey (Stan)/DT G-Howard (N Ill) huge adds
(4/4) DT Lee Hunter a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/22) Portal TE Carter Jr (ULL) a dynamic weapon
(3/20) RB need much more TY. Joyner (USC) added

Texas Tech Highlights
Texas Tech in Undefeated
Texas Tech is Undefeated at Home

Texas Tech has Really Good Running Game (#30)
Texas Tech offense is efficent (#6)
Texas Tech has a top Offensive Line (#14)
Texas Tech offense is good in red zone (#15)
Texas Tech offense is good on 3rd downs
Texas Tech has a really good defense (#1)
Texas Tech has a good run defense (#1)
Texas Tech has a good pass defense (#3)
Texas Tech Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#2)
Texas Tech Defensive Line is very good (#2)
Texas Tech Front 7 is disruptive (#25)
Texas Tech defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Texas Tech Deficiencies
Texas Tech Commits a Lot of Penalties (#118)


  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)294564%4712010.5
Cam Fancher (Tr)5956%32003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Nixon (Tr)6150225.087
Myles Montgomery2911403.915
Jacurri Brown5106221.260
Cam Fancher (Tr)43909.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)7117016.741
Myles Montgomery4103025.864
DJ Black686114.333
Dylan Wade (Tr)454113.539

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)111001
Antoine Jackson90001
Lewis Carter (Tr)90000
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)91000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rodney Lora (Tr)84100
Horace Lockett (Tr)71111
Nyjalik Kelly73121
Malachi Lawrence42102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Bell (Tr)10002
Malachi Lawrence42102
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)111001

Texas Tech's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton578170%92311111.4
Will Hammond172471%188217.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Adam Hill2420708.636
Cameron Dickey3817744.720
J'Koby Williams2815825.620
Will Hammond7108215.464
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Coy Eakin12245320.442
Terrance Carter (Tr)10194319.450
J'Koby Williams11150113.639
Caleb Douglas6142123.761

View Texas Tech's Full Roster
Texas Tech's DC Shiel Wood
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Curry151011
Jacob Rodriguez141011
Ben Roberts130022
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)102141
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Bailey (Tr)53350
Romello Height (Tr)73370
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)102141
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Hampton21002
Ben Roberts130022
John Curry151011