UCF at Texas Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, TX (Big 12)

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#81)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)

TTU 2nd straight Home Game
TTU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -16 (SP+ TTU -11)
Projected Score: UCF: 26 - TTU: 42 (65)
TTU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
UCF Travel: 1269 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Red Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 38 - 35 (44 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#19)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	56.5
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-22
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	+0.5
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+19
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+2.5
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+8
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-2
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+13
Sat 11/8	UCF vs Houston	-0.5
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+16
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-2.5
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-35.5
Sat 9/6	Texas Tech vs Kent State	-41
Sat 9/13	Texas Tech vs Oregon State	-18
Sat 9/20	Texas Tech at Utah	+1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas Tech at Houston	-9
Sat 10/11	Texas Tech vs Kansas	-11
Sat 10/18	Texas Tech at Arizona State	+5
Sat 10/25	Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State	-16
Sat 11/1	Texas Tech at Kansas State	+5.5
Sat 11/8	Texas Tech vs BYU	-8.5
Sat 11/15	Texas Tech vs UCF	-16
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Texas Tech at West Virginia	-10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)	37.6	45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)	34.8	44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TTU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	30.4	27	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21
TTU Defense	13	34.8	35.7	43.6%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	44%	44%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	26.9	32.4	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16
TTU Offense	13	37.6	43.7	44.2%	4.73	1.5	23	425	150	275	4.5	45%	55%	45%	43%	14%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6
Texas Tech	13	27:50	22.8	49%	52%	7	59.4	1.5	1.6	4.6	1.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)
TTU Defense	13	45% (16)	44% (76)	-	-	-	-	.12 (69)	2.75 (30)	62% (14)	8% (108)	1.08 (111)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)
TTU Offense	13	45% (104)	45% (49)	33.2	149.6	4.5	24 (45)	.17 (46)	3.17 (45)	72% (81)	8% (38)	1.05 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)
TTU Defense	13	54% (120)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.33 (108)	1.7 (106)	31% (91)	36% (120)	.45 (116)	4% (124)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)
TTU Offense	13	55% (27)	43% (51)	24.3	38.6	275.4	7.1	11.3	30 (9)	9 (48)	.31 (44)	1.6 (77)	32% (81)	34% (39)	.39 (45)	6% (66)	2 (89)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -3.03 #73
UCF's Offense Rating: 11.99 #81
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.02 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 700.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #26
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -3.03 Texas Tech: 14.715

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.4 Texas Tech: 11.8

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 14.715 #27
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 21.81 #25
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 9.18 #33
2025 Talent Rating: 868.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #25
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3 #9
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 42
UCF 26

Projected Total Points: 65

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.7

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/18	Texas Tech	24	UCF	23	Texas Tech	Texas Tech -2.0	UCF	59.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	1	0	0 Overs
UCF	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#73) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.03 #73
Offense Rating: 11.99 #81
Defense Rating: 15.02 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61
Talent Rating: 700.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #26
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF Notes
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) New staff, over 50% new roster. We'll see
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds
(3/21) RB Monty back (#2 LY), Nixon (WMU) added
(3/21) New DC Grinch fired from USC
(3/21) HC Frost is back. UCF in new conf/reality

UCF Ratings Matchup Texas Tech

Power #73

#27

Off #81

#25

Def #68

#33

Talent #70

#25

SP+ #61

#25

SP+ Off #57

SP+ Def #61

#55

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat UCF in 2023 (24-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | TTU
Depth Chart: UCF | TTU
Rosters: UCF | TTU

(#27) Texas Tech Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.715 #27
Offense Rating: 21.81 #25
Defense Rating: 9.18 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55
Talent Rating: 868.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #26
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.73 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Texas Tech Notes
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp but 46% comes from portals
(4/19) QB Morton a top B12 QB, missed spring (inj)
(4/4) DE Bailey (Stan)/DT G-Howard (N Ill) huge adds
(4/4) DT Lee Hunter a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/22) Portal TE Carter Jr (ULL) a dynamic weapon
(3/20) RB need much more TY. Joyner (USC) added
(3/20) WR Douglas/Eakin back. Virgil (M-OH) add
(3/20) OL 2/5 back. Both T's portals (NC/M-OH)

UCF's OC Steve Cooper

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Jacurri Brown	34	66	52%	387	1	4	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jacurri Brown	53	401	4	7.6	67
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Myles Montgomery	51	293	3	5.7	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Wade (Tr)	29	374	2	12.9	44
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	9	74	0	8.2	16
Marcus Burke (Tr)	8	69	2	8.6	20
Myles Montgomery	3	66	1	22.0	49

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4
Keli Lawson (Tr)	40	2	0	0	4
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Sincere Edwards (Tr)	17	6	3	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	34	1	6
DJ Bell (Tr)	16	0	5
Keli Lawson (Tr)	40	2	4

Texas Tech's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	293	463	63%	3300	27	8	7.1
Will Hammond	15	23	65%	191	1	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinten Joyner (Tr)	63	478	3	7.6	75
Cameron Dickey	25	150	1	6.0	37
J'Koby Williams	26	113	1	4.3	13
Cam'Ron Valdez	9	40	0	4.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Caleb Douglas	55	765	6	13.9	57
Terrance Carter (Tr)	48	689	4	14.4	74
Coy Eakin	45	605	6	13.4	70

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

Texas Tech's DC Shiel Wood

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Ben Roberts	74	5	0	4	0
Dontae Balfour (Tr)	48	3	0	0	9
Skyler Gill-Howard (Tr)	48	7	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey (Tr)	31	8	6	8	0
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Skyler Gill-Howard (Tr)	48	7	5	4	0
Terrell Tilmon	8	4	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontae Balfour (Tr)	48	3	0	9
Brice Pollock (Tr)	48	1	0	7
Maurion Horn	46	2	1	4