UCF at BYU - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at BYU Cougars(#11)BYU logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (1:00 PM EST)
BYU -17.5 (46.5) (-1300)  Open: -17.5 | 48.5
BYU 41 - UCF: 21  (Big 12)

 
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
BYU is playing their 4th straight game
UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: BYU -22  (SP+ BYU -19)

Projected Score: UCF: 13 - BYU: 35 (48)
BYU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
UCF Travel: 1901 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 4, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-3.051.5W 44 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-2.556.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-17.546.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 12/6 BYU vs Texas Tech+12.550.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 BYU vs Georgia Tech-3.555.0W 25 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#90 (.14)39% (106)24.339% (112)2.61 (126)15840% (93)2213.49 (90)#53 (.12)44% (94)23.647% (119)40% (54)3.52 (57)57.21.51.2
BYU#36 (.22)46% (33)31.447% (33)3 (56)17244% (48)1984.03 (39)#31 (.09)39% (38)19.139% (30)41% (61)3.29 (37)41.911.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1224.312.839.1%3.491.5183791582214.945%53%39%40%17%.14
BYU Defense1419.113.739.1%3.291.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%41%16%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1223.634.643.7%3.521.2 - - - - - 54%45%47%40%16%.12
BYU Offense1431.440.545.5%4.031203701721984.853%45%47%44%14%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1229:5518.234%56%7.657.21.51.25.62.1228.4
BYU1430:282041%60%5.141.911.65.12.1428.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1245% (106)39% (112)32.3158.24.919 (26).11 (71)2.61 (126)62% (123)11% (106)1.25 (1)
BYU Defense1447% (35)39% (30) - - - - .05 (39)2.76 (49)75% (98)10% (68)0.97 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1254% (111)47% (119) - - - - .12 (82)3.06 (101)85% (132)10% (45)0.88 (28)
BYU Offense1453% (37)47% (33)361724.831 (16).2 (30)3 (56)82% (7)8% (27)0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1253% (30)40% (93)20.833.6220.86.610.612 (114)12 (34).18 (104)1.5 (101)33% (106)24% (126).19 (114)7% (91)2.3 (8)
BYU Defense1452% (104)41% (61) - - - - - - 16 (12).18 (41)1.5 (25)34% (35)26% (22).15 (14)6% (54)1.9 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1245% (28)40% (54) - - - - - - 9 (55).16 (32)1.4 (19)31% (81)25% (16).11 (7)6% (64)1.7 (5)
BYU Offense1445% (101)44% (48)16.426197.97.612.114 (86)6 (20).28 (53)1.5 (93)30% (42)30% (76).34 (54)6% (68)2.1 (47)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -1.37  #74
UCF's Offense Rating: 4.79  #90
UCF's Defense Rating: 6.16  #53
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.9  #77
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #95
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.37   BYU: 20.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -0.9   BYU: 18.2




BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 20.865  #21
BYU's Offense Rating: 14.49  #43
BYU's Defense Rating: -4.04  #19
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.2  #14
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.0  #20
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0  #20

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 35
UCF 13


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
BYU 36
UCF 13

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
BYU 33
UCF 18

Total Points: 51
BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29BYU41UCF21BYU -17.5BYU46.5Over
202410/26UCF24BYU37UCF -2.5BYU53.5Over
202012/22BYU49UCF23BYU -6BYU80.0Under
201410/09UCF31BYU24UCF -3UCF0
201109/23BYU24UCF17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
BYU432 Overs
UCF111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 13 - 13 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 41 - 30 - 01 - 3

(#74) UCF at (#21) BYU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFBYU
Power RatePwr #74 #21
SP+SP+ #77 #14
Perf GradeGrade #76 #20
OffenseOff #118 #24
DefenseDef #24 #47
Spec TeamsST #21 #4
TalentTal #72 #79
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #56
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
BYU Notes
(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBYU Def
Perf GradePerf #118 #47
SuccessSuc #106 #38
ExplosiveExp #11 #54
PPAPPA #90 #31
PowerPwr #90 #19
SP+SP+ #95 #20
Pts POPPO #90 #37
HavocHav #106 #63
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #76 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #30
Run ExplRExp #1 #71
PPAExp #71 #39
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLY #126 #49
Stuff RateStuff #128 #36
TackleTak -  #99
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #129 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #93 #61
Pass ExplPExl #101 #25
PPAExp #104 #41
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #55 #74
F7 HavocF7 #106 #68
DB HavocDB #91 #54
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBYU OffUCF Def
Perf GradePerf #24 #24
SuccessSuc #33 #94
ExplosiveExp #107 #8
PPAPPA #36 #53
PowerPwr #43 #53
SP+SP+ #20 #51
Pts POPPO #39 #57
HavocHav #41 #55
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #43 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #119
Run ExplRExp #77 #28
PPAExp #30 #82
Run BlockR Blk #10 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #101
Stuff RateStuff #38 #113
TackleTak -  #24
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBYU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #39 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #48 #54
Pass ExplPExl #93 #19
PPAExp #53 #32
Pass Block/RushP Blk #39 #39
F7 HavocF7 #27 #45
DB HavocDB #68 #64
Program Comparison
BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in LaVell Edwards Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 41° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 14
BYU -17.5 (46.5)
BYU won vs UCF this year (41-21)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat UCF last year (37-24)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004

BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)25138765%30331577.8
Parker Kingston1617%22003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)147527113.622
Parker Kingston2612334.720
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Kingston66924514.075
Chase Roberts54802614.985
Carsen Ryan (Tr)45620313.843
LJ Martin3625507.126

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala798114
Tanner Wall641000
Isaiah Glasker639391
Jack Kelly52141071
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly52141071
Isaiah Glasker639391
Bodie Schoonover335333
Anisi Purcell (Tr)112200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Logan Lutui505045
Therrian Alexander313125