UCF at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -5.5 (48.5) (-210)  Open: -5.5
Kansas State 34 - UCF: 20  (Big 12)

 
Knights (4 - 4) (4 - 4 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (11 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
KSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Kansas State -5.5  (SP+ KSU -4)

Projected Score: UCF: 21 - KSU: 26 (47)
KSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UCF Travel: 1144 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (4 - 5) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 28 (31 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-21.5
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+16.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+3.555.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.551.5L 20 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+16.5
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-14

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#65 (.18)40% (105)27.341% (95)2.34 (116)19239% (102)2263.44 (103)#34 (.09)41% (63)18.845% (99)37% (26)3.3 (32)57.51.31.1
KSU#82 (.15)40% (97)29.840% (105)2.68 (90)14241% (84)2214.04 (50)#50 (.12)39% (41)27.740% (48)38% (37)3.51 (55)31.61.42.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense827.311.339.8%3.441.3204181922265.646%54%41%39%16%.18
KSU Defense927.73039.3%3.512.1 - - - - - 51%48%40%38%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense818.82841%3.31.1 - - - - - 55%44%45%37%18%.09
KSU Offense929.830.840.4%4.041.4173631422214.549%50%40%41%19%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF830:482033%56%7.457.51.31.16.12.1127.8
Kansas State928:3717.239%46%3.231.61.42.15.82.2231.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense846% (103)41% (95)34.1191.65.617 (26).15 (52)2.34 (116)60% (128)9% (66)1.37 (1)
KSU Defense951% (84)40% (48) - - - - .04 (43)1.94 (6)72% (74)10% (60)1.08 (118)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense855% (117)45% (99) - - - - .11 (87)3.01 (104)79% (117)12% (23)0.97 (73)
KSU Offense949% (72)40% (105)31.4142.44.514 (88).08 (77)2.68 (90)70% (80)12% (121)1.03 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense854% (32)39% (102)2134.3226.36.610.86 (114)6 (34).19 (90)1.5 (93)33% (105)27% (105).32 (69)7% (106)2.4 (3)
KSU Defense948% (58)38% (37) - - - - - - 9 (38).19 (52)1.6 (93)34% (34)29% (60).26 (60)7% (22)2 (85)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense844% (21)37% (26) - - - - - - 5 (55).09 (18)1.4 (23)32% (59)25% (21).1 (9)6% (78)1.8 (23)
KSU Offense950% (60)41% (84)18.630.4220.77.311.916 (42)5 (20).24 (76)1.6 (44)35% (125)30% (69).22 (98)7% (96)1.8 (126)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.41  #63
UCF's Offense Rating: 7.27  #82
UCF's Defense Rating: 3.86  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #56
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #75
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #32

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.41   Kansas State: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.4   Kansas State: 8.0




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 9.53  #55
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 8.70  #72
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 2.64  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.0  #46
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #40
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 26
UCF 21


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 22
Kansas State 17

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Kansas State 27
UCF 24

Total Points: 51
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.8
Defense: 27.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Kansas State34UCF20Kansas State -5.5Kansas State48.5Over
202309/23Kansas State44UCF31Kansas State -6Kansas State53.5Over
201009/25Kansas State17UCF13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State322 Overs
UCF000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#63) UCF at (#55) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFKSU
Power RatePwr #63 #55
SP+SP+ #56 #46
Perf GradeGrade #54 #66
OffenseOff #102 #71
DefenseDef #22 #75
Spec TeamsST #16 #14
TalentTal #72 #46
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #56
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Kansas State Notes
(10/22) RB Dylan Edwards out again vs Kansas, shocker...
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
(5/9) RB Martin Jr 230/1,228/11 TD, 5.3 ypc SE La LY
(4/7) QB Johnson exciting, but Opps don't respect arm
(4/4) LB Austin Romaine a top 10 LB via PFF
Kansas State Injury Report
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UCF OffKSU Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #75
SuccessSuc #105 #41
ExplosiveExp #3 #107
PPAPPA #65 #50
PowerPwr #82 #39
SP+SP+ #75 #51
Pts POPPO #103 #55
HavocHav #87 #41
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UCF OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #34 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #48
Run ExplRExp #1 #118
PPAExp #52 #43
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #6
Stuff RateStuff #126 #51
TackleTak -  #105
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UCF OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #125 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #37
Pass ExplPExl #93 #93
PPAExp #90 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #23 #105
F7 HavocF7 #66 #60
DB HavocDB #106 #22
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatKSU OffUCF Def
Perf GradePerf #71 #22
SuccessSuc #97 #63
ExplosiveExp #31 #23
PPAPPA #82 #34
PowerPwr #72 #44
SP+SP+ #40 #32
Pts POPPO #50 #32
HavocHav #127 #38
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
KSU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #129 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #99
Run ExplRExp #42 #73
PPAExp #77 #87
Run BlockR Blk #45 -
OL YdsOLY #90 #104
Stuff RateStuff #124 #97
TackleTak -  #26
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatKSU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #54 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #26
Pass ExplPExl #44 #23
PPAExp #76 #18
Pass Block/RushP Blk #55 #45
F7 HavocF7 #121 #23
DB HavocDB #96 #78
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Kansas State -5.5 (48.5)
Kansas State won vs UCF this year (34-20)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat UCF in 2023 (44-31)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)12119163%1334547.0
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery11257235.145
Jaden Nixon (Tr)35423612.187
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)38393010.341
DJ Black18244213.682
Dylan Wade (Tr)2322219.739
Chris Domercant (Tr)15185212.340

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)502111
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)505202
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)443001
Nyjalik Kelly378252
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence219632
Nyjalik Kelly378252
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)505202
Lewis Carter (Tr)502111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)140004
Nyjalik Kelly378252
Antoine Jackson271002

KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson16727361%19861647.3
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson10540713.921
Avery Johnson8134374.246
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Jayce Brown7116116.675
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown38630416.678
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)35457313.138
Garrett Oakley30333511.135
Jerand Bradley (Tr)13184214.265

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Austin Romaine667162
Desmond Purnell507344
VJ Payne433002
Zashon Rich393108
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Cody Stufflebean163350
Desmond Purnell507344
Travis Bates122251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich393108
Donovan McIntosh270004
Desmond Purnell507344