UCF at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium - Manhattan, KS  (Big 12)

 
Knights (2 - 0) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 43 - 9 (43 - 9 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
KSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Kansas State -2.5   (SP+ KSU -2)

Projected Score: UCF: 26 - KSU: 28 (54)
KSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 1144 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (1 - 3) (0 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 24 - 27 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-6.548.5
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+2.5
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+1
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+9.5
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+8
Sat 11/8 UCF vs Houston-4
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+19.5
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+9

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-2.5
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+8
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+6
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-9.5
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+16.5
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-5.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#37 (.32)41% (90)42.538% (107)2.52 (111)23344% (68)2594.25 (53)#25 (-)36% (40)8.539% (70)31% (21)2.13 (18)67.50.52
KSU#70 (.2)42% (82)24.338% (107)2.9 (78)10946% (55)2133.87 (76)#77 (.15)37% (53)26.536% (48)38% (54)4.47 (106)32.31.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense242.542.541%4.250.5224922332596.946%54%38%44%12%.32
KSU Defense426.529.536.8%4.471.3 - - - - - 63%37%36%38%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense28.58.535.6%2.132 - - - - - 60%39%39%31%24%0
KSU Offense424.329.542.2%3.871.3143221092134.542%58%38%46%17%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF227:5821.546%100%7.567.50.528.52132.5
Kansas State424:271431%38%3.332.31.31.362.3131
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense246% (95)38% (107)342336.97 (38).17 (56)2.52 (111)75% (52)9% (71)1.62 (2)
KSU Defense463% (129)36% (48) - - - - .08 (79)2.22 (23)68% (62)11% (59)1.19 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense260% (125)39% (70) - - - - .08 (72)2.69 (59)71% (72)16% (12)1.22 (114)
KSU Offense442% (120)38% (107)24108.84.55 (62)-.04 (119)2.9 (78)46% (131)9% (78)0.91 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense254% (39)44% (68)1828.52599.114.42 (102)0 (1).44 (37)1.9 (11)34% (106)33% (54).63 (26)3% (30)2.5 (12)
KSU Defense437% (10)38% (54) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (83)1.7 (104)34% (55)32% (87).32 (83)4% (100)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense239% (12)31% (21) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.12 (13)1 (4)36% (40)28% (62).17 (48)9% (19)1.4 (9)
KSU Offense458% (16)46% (55)19.331.8212.86.711.16 (34)1 (23).37 (54)1.7 (38)35% (112)33% (61).2 (100)8% (125)1.6 (113)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 9.52 #54
UCF's Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
UCF's Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 9.52   Kansas State: 9.595

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5   Kansas State: 6.6




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 9.595 #61
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 13.43 #64
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 5.84 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #54
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #42

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UCF Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 42.5
Defense: 8.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.5

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 28
UCF 26


Total Points: 54

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Kansas State44UCF31Kansas StateKansas State -6Kansas State53.5Over
201009/25Kansas State17UCF13Kansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State211 Overs
UCF000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#54) UCF Info
Power Rating: 9.52 #54
Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.25 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

UCF Notes
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds

UCF Highlights
UCF in Undefeated

UCF offense is explosive (#3)
UCF offense is good on 3rd downs
UCF defense is really good in red zone (#18)
UCF has a good pass defense (#21)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)
UCF Secondary is very good (#19)
UCF has a great TO Margin (#11)

UCF Deficiencies
UCF Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#108)
UCF run game is really bad (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatKSUUCF
OverallOver#55#28
OffenseOff#69#52
DefenseDef#58#29
Special TeamsST#7#3
PassingPass#36#71
RushingRush#95#16
Run BlockRBLK#63#57
Pass BlockPBLK#39#57
Route RunningWR Rt#80#67
TacklingTkl#20#53
Run DefenseR Def#60#31
Pass Rush DefPRush#82#6
Coverage DefCov#56#66

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat UCF in 2023 (44-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | KSU
Depth Chart: UCF | KSU
Rosters: UCF | KSU
(#61) Kansas State Info
Power Rating: 9.595 #61
Offense Rating: 13.43 #64
Defense Rating: 5.84 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #42
Talent Rating: 830.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.47 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Kansas State has lost 2 straight
Kansas State has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Kansas State Notes
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(8/27) RB D Edwards out vs ND St, likely Army too
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
(5/9) RB Martin Jr 230/1,228/11 TD, 5.3 ypc SE La LY
(4/7) QB Johnson exciting, but Opps don't respect arm
(4/4) LB Austin Romaine a top 10 LB via PFF
(3/21) RB Edwards (#2 LY) time. Some depth options
(3/21) WR Brown (#1 LY) good, 3 portals to find #2/3

Kansas State Highlights
Kansas State offense is explosive (#27)
Kansas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Kansas State Defensive Line is very good (#23)
Kansas State commits very few Penalties (#30)

Kansas State Deficiencies
Kansas State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Kansas State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Kansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#129)
Kansas State run game is really bad (#107)
Kansas State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Kansas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#100)
Kansas State has a bad red zone defense (#106)


  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)294564%4712010.5
Cam Fancher (Tr)5956%32003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Nixon (Tr)6150225.087
Myles Montgomery2911403.915
Jacurri Brown5106221.260
Cam Fancher (Tr)43909.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)7117016.741
Myles Montgomery4103025.864
DJ Black686114.333
Dylan Wade (Tr)454113.539

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)111001
Antoine Jackson90001
Lewis Carter (Tr)90000
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)91000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rodney Lora (Tr)84100
Horace Lockett (Tr)71111
Nyjalik Kelly73121
Malachi Lawrence42102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Bell (Tr)10002
Malachi Lawrence42102
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)111001

Kansas State's OC Matt Wells
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson7712761%851616.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson3013604.517
Jayce Brown3104134.775
Devon Rice187724.313
Avery Johnson256222.525
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown25284211.444
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)13157212.132
Jerand Bradley (Tr)10152115.265
Garrett Oakley1211009.224

View Kansas State's Full Roster
Kansas State's DC Joe Klanderman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Austin Romaine373021
Desmond Purnell282011
VJ Payne262000
Zashon Rich191005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tobi Osunsanmi164310
Cody Stufflebean102220
Mar'Quavious Moss (Tr)132101
Jordan Allen31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich191005
Donovan McIntosh110002
Austin Romaine373021