UCF at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium - Manhattan, KS  (Big 12)

 
Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#81)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
KSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Kansas State -19   (SP+ KSU -15)
Projected Score: UCF: 18 - KSU: 37 (56)
KSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
UCF Travel: 1144 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (33 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 2.7 (#14)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.556.5
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina+0.5
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+19
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+2.5
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+8
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+13
Sat 11/8 UCF vs Houston-0.5
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+16
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-2.5
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+10.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-3.549.5
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-38.5
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-21
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-19
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor-3
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU-6
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas-9
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-14
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah-2
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)30.452% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)26.937% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)30.846% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)23.434% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1230.42746.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21
KSU Defense1323.416.535.9%3.541.1 - - - - - 47%53%34%38%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1226.932.439.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
KSU Offense1330.83344%4.081.2183871901966.152%48%46%42%12%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Kansas State1326:4518.540%56%541.31.21.15.92.4327.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)
KSU Defense1347% (31)34% (4) - - - - -.01 (10)2.6 (15)77% (97)11% (39)1.01 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
KSU Offense1352% (57)46% (42)31.5190.36.118 (78).27 (11)3.37 (14)68% (102)8% (29)1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)
KSU Defense1353% (104)38% (32) - - - - - - 9 (76).24 (72)1.8 (130)39% (2)30% (52).35 (88)6% (68)2.2 (119)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
KSU Offense1348% (76)42% (68)15.927196.47.312.322 (46)9 (48).33 (36)1.7 (31)31% (56)31% (76).36 (57)5% (27)2 (79)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -3.03 #73
UCF's Offense Rating: 11.99 #81
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.02 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 700.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #26
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -3.03   Kansas State: 17.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.4   Kansas State: 15.6




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 17.535 #20
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 20.23 #34
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 5.76 #19
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #51
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6 #18
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #14
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 37
UCF 18

Projected Total Points: 56
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.5

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Kansas State44UCF31Kansas StateKansas State -6Kansas State53.5Over
201009/25Kansas State17UCF13Kansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State211 Overs
UCF000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#73) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.03 #73
Offense Rating: 11.99 #81
Defense Rating: 15.02 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61
Talent Rating: 700.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #26
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


UCF Notes
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) New staff, over 50% new roster. We'll see
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds
(3/21) RB Monty back (#2 LY), Nixon (WMU) added
(3/21) New DC Grinch fired from USC
(3/21) HC Frost is back. UCF in new conf/reality
UCF     Ratings Matchup     Kansas State
Power #73
#20
Off #81
#34
Def #68
#19
Talent #70
#33
SP+ #61
#18
SP+ Off #57
#14
SP+ Def #61
#26

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat UCF in 2023 (44-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | KSU
Depth Chart: UCF | KSU
Rosters: UCF | KSU
(#20) Kansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 17.535 #20
Offense Rating: 20.23 #34
Defense Rating: 5.76 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6 #18
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #14
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #26
Talent Rating: 838.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #51
Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Good in Scoring Position 3.54 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kansas State Notes
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
(5/9) RB Martin Jr 230/1,228/11 TD, 5.3 ypc SE La LY
(4/7) QB Johnson exciting, but Opps don't respect arm
(4/4) LB Austin Romaine a top 10 LB via PFF
(3/21) RB Edwards (#2 LY) time. Some depth options
(3/21) WR Brown (#1 LY) good, 3 portals to find #2/3
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5. 2 portals (OSU/USC) Need time
(3/21) Def good LY, signed 5 DB portals to help
(3/21) New OC Wells was #2 LY, Riley left for NFL
(3/21) Klieman 9+ wins a year since '21. Great coach


  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)12621259%1528667.2
Jacurri Brown346652%387145.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Nixon (Tr)132874126.692
Jacurri Brown5340147.667
Cam Fancher (Tr)9936533.776
Myles Montgomery5129335.725
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Wade (Tr)29374212.944
Jaden Nixon (Tr)97408.216
Marcus Burke (Tr)86928.620
Myles Montgomery366122.049

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly5310611
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)483014
Keli Lawson (Tr)402004
R.J. Jackson354302
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly5310611
Malachi Lawrence156541
R.J. Jackson354302
Sincere Edwards (Tr)176342
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)341006
DJ Bell (Tr)160005
Keli Lawson (Tr)402004

Kansas State's OC Matt Wells
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson21737258%271225107.3
Jacob Knuth22100%18009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Avery Johnson11360575.433
Dylan Edwards7454657.465
Joe Jackson3922715.832
Jayce Brown342014.034
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown47823517.565
Caleb Medford (Tr)18336318.747
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)25305212.238
Garrett Oakley22236510.728

View Kansas State's Full Roster
Kansas State's DC Joe Klanderman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Austin Romaine968242
VJ Payne644003
Desmond Purnell4610461
Amarion Fortenberry (Tr)432006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desmond Purnell4610461
Tobi Osunsanmi196440
Chiddi Obiazor175433
Ryan Davis73321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amarion Fortenberry (Tr)432006
Chiddi Obiazor175433
VJ Payne644003