West Virginia at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview
West Virginia logo West Virginia Mountaineers at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (1:00 PM EDT)
UCF -6.5 (46.5) (-238)  Open: -9.5
UCF 45 - West Virginia: 13  (Big 12)

 
Mountaineers (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (60 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
WVU coming off BYE
UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UCF -4.5  (SP+ UCF -6)

Projected Score: WVU: 22 - UCF: 27 (49)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WVU Travel: 766 miles
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.056.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 West Virginia at Ohio-3.558.5L 10 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.554.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 West Virginia at Kansas+12.554.5L 10 - 41UN
Sat 9/27 West Virginia vs Utah+13.546.5L 14 - 48ON
Fri 10/3 West Virginia at BYU+19.546.5L 24 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 West Virginia at UCF+6.546.5L 13 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 West Virginia vs TCU+16.555.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 11/1 West Virginia at Houston+13.548.5W 45 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 West Virginia vs Colorado-6.551.5W 29 - 22UY
Sat 11/15 West Virginia at Arizona State+10.046.5L 23 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.553.5L 0 - 49UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU#63 (.2)43% (69)21.844% (75)3.05 (64)19641% (73)2104.6 (16)#124 (.3)45% (103)30.841% (46)49% (128)4.74 (131)33.91.51.1
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)24.352% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)23.637% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Offense1321.820.842.5%4.61.5234061962104.956%44%44%41%16%.2
UCF Defense1223.615.739.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Defense1330.833.544.8%4.741.1 - - - - - 51%49%41%49%13%.3
UCF Offense1224.332.646.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
West Virginia1331:3622.642%62%4.333.91.51.14.81.5128.4
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Offense1356% (28)44% (75)40.11964.927 (30).16 (52)3.05 (64)78% (33)10% (82)1.07 (35)
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Defense1351% (68)41% (46) - - - - .08 (46)2.83 (41)64% (21)9% (97)1.02 (86)
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Offense1344% (107)41% (73)17.428.6210.37.412.120 (58)14 (115).26 (65)1.8 (16)34% (117)32% (63).37 (52)6% (75)2.3 (8)
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Defense1349% (68)49% (128) - - - - - - 5 (117).53 (133)1.8 (127)31% (84)38% (128).61 (133)4% (126)2.3 (123)
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: -3.16  #74
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 7.84  #100
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 11.00  #52
2025 Talent Rating: 808.00  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
West Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
West Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.8  #93
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8  #102
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #91

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: -3.16   UCF: -0.475

SP+ Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: -6.8   UCF: -1.2




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -0.475  #78
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79  #93
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54  #65
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.5

West Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 27
West Virginia 22


Projected Total Points: 49
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18UCF45West Virginia13UCF -6.5UCF46.5Over
202411/23West Virginia31UCF21UCF -3West Virginia60.0Under
202310/28UCF28West Virginia41UCF -6.5West Virginia59.5Over
200409/11UCF20West Virginia45
200311/01West Virginia36UCF18
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF112 Overs
West Virginia421 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#74) WVU at (#78) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWVUUCF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #74 #78
SP+SP+ #93 #76
Perf GradeGrade #127 #81
OffenseOff #131 #123
DefenseDef #115 #21
Spec TeamsST #53 #32
TalentTal #50 #72
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #32
West Virginia Notes
(10/27) Def spirited vs TCU, Fox 300 yds, but can't run
(10/18) Getting real bad, killed by UCF. Just too many injuries
(10/18) Outgained 550+ to 200 yds vs UCF? Coming unglued
(10/4) QB1 is Fr Khalil Wilkins, mobile and not ready. Woof
(10/1) Starting QB Marchiol redshirting & transferring
(9/20) Killed by KU, just don't have Off weapons or QB
(9/14) Gutsy comeback W vs Pitt. Plays hard for staff
(9/8) Star RB Jahiem White out for season (knee)
(9/8) Starting WR J Bray out for season (leg)
(8/30) Ran for nearly 400< Marchiol efficient vs RMU
(8/20) DE/LB Robinson likely academically ineligible
(6/11) RB White a top B12 RB, Edwards (FCS) 1k LY
West Virginia Injury Report
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
West Virginia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #131 #21
SuccessSuc #69 #45
ExplosiveExp #13 #95
PPAPPA #63 #63
PowerPwr #100 #65
SP+SP+ #102 #51
Pts POPPO #16 #118
HavocHav #79 #64
West Virginia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #133 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #75 #12
Run ExplRExp #35 #90
PPAExp #52 #39
Run BlockR Blk #123 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #13
Stuff RateStuff #74 #17
TackleTak -  #31
West Virginia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #127 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #73 #84
Pass ExplPExl #16 #64
PPAExp #65 #81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #64 #33
F7 HavocF7 #82 #28
DB HavocDB #75 #118
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffWVU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #123 #115
SuccessSuc #28 #103
ExplosiveExp #73 #128
PPAPPA #58 #124
PowerPwr #93 #52
SP+SP+ #98 #91
Pts POPPO #86 #131
HavocHav #51 #119
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #68 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #46
Run ExplRExp #11 #86
PPAExp #7 #46
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #41
Stuff RateStuff #16 #53
TackleTak -  #123
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #130 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #128
Pass ExplPExl #76 #127
PPAExp #123 #133
Pass Block/RushP Blk #44 #101
F7 HavocF7 #66 #97
DB HavocDB #48 #126
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

WVU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 8
UCF -6.5 (46.5)
UCF won vs West Virginia this year (45-13)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat West Virginia last year (45-13)
West Virginia beat UCF in 2024 (31-21)
West Virginia beat UCF in 2023 (41-28)

  
WVU's OC Chad Scott (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Scotty Fox Jr.10117059%1276767.5
Nicco Marchiol669867%720227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diore Hubbard9633543.529
Cyncir Bowers6324924.026
Khalil Wilkins5824324.222
Scotty Fox Jr.8420132.459
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446
Jeff Weimer (Tr)21383218.275
Rodney Gallagher2824308.726
Grayson Barnes (Tr)21232211.034

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Darrian Lewis (Tr)751010
Reid Carrico698551
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Carrico698551
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
Devin Grant (Tr)205301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr. (Tr)302007
Jason Chambers (Tr)343004
Derek Carter (Tr)312004

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004