UCF at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -10 (55.5) (-395)  Open: -10.5
Cincinnati 20 - UCF: 11  (Big 12)

 
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
CIN 2nd straight Home Game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -16  (SP+ CIN -6)

Projected Score: UCF: 19 - CIN: 35 (54)
CIN Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
UCF Travel: 752 miles
Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)24.352% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)23.637% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)30.344% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)25.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1224.312.846.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21
CIN Defense1225.619.642.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1223.634.639.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
CIN Offense1230.334.444.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -4.75  #78
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79  #93
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54  #65
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -4.75   Cincinnati: 12.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.2   Cincinnati: 4.5




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 12.92  #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32  #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 35
UCF 19


Projected Total Points: 54
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Cincinnati20UCF11Cincinnati -10UCF55.5Under
202410/12UCF13Cincinnati19UCF -2Cincinnati58.0Under
202311/04Cincinnati26UCF28UCF -3.5Cincinnati59.5Under
202210/29UCF25Cincinnati21UCF -1.5UCF55.5Under
202110/16Cincinnati56UCF21Cincinnati -21.5Cincinnati56.0Over
202011/21UCF33Cincinnati36Cincinnati -4.5UCF66.0Over
201910/04Cincinnati27UCF24UCF -3.5Cincinnati64.0Under
201811/17UCF38Cincinnati13UCF -7.5UCF60.0Under
201710/07Cincinnati23UCF51UCF -15UCF52.5Over
201611/12UCF24Cincinnati3UCF -10UCF55.0Under
201510/31Cincinnati52UCF7Cincinnati -20.5Cincinnati61.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati653 Overs
UCF568 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 48 - 35 - 23 - 1
Road Teams4 - 73 - 81 - 32 - 5

(#78) UCF at (#17) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #78 #17
SP+SP+ #76 #56
Perf GradeGrade #81 #34
OffenseOff #123 #20
DefenseDef #21 #78
Spec TeamsST #32 #66
TalentTal #72 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #79
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #123 #78
SuccessSuc #28 #76
ExplosiveExp #73 #75
PPAPPA #58 #75
PowerPwr #93 #28
SP+SP+ #98 #67
Pts POPPO #86 #40
HavocHav #51 #67
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #68 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #94
Run ExplRExp #11 #49
PPAExp #7 #77
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #98
Stuff RateStuff #16 #56
TackleTak -  #35
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #130 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #43
Pass ExplPExl #76 #108
PPAExp #123 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #44 #130
F7 HavocF7 #66 #51
DB HavocDB #48 #87
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffUCF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #20 #21
SuccessSuc #43 #45
ExplosiveExp #79 #95
PPAPPA #59 #63
PowerPwr #19 #65
SP+SP+ #50 #51
Pts POPPO #118 #118
HavocHav #69 #64
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #30 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #12
Run ExplRExp #34 #90
PPAExp #59 #39
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #13
Stuff RateStuff #105 #17
TackleTak -  #31
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #12 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #84
Pass ExplPExl #121 #64
PPAExp #63 #81
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #33
F7 HavocF7 #93 #28
DB HavocDB #33 #118
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67°
Rematch from Week 7
Cincinnati -10.0 (55.5)
Cincinnati won vs UCF this year (20-11)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat UCF last year (20-11)
Cincinnati beat UCF in 2024 (19-13)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2023 (28-26)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg142167%134216.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey2719417.236
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)506601213.288
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jonathan Thompson679120
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt266400
Jack Dingle513230
Montay Weedon273200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Daniel James150004