UCF at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -10 (55.5) (-395) Open: -10.5
Cincinnati 20 - UCF: 11 (Big 12)

Knights (3 - 3) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (16 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

CIN 2nd straight Home Game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -14 (SP+ CIN -8)
Projected Score: UCF: 21 - CIN: 35 (55)
CIN Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
UCF Travel: 752 miles

Bearcats (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 36 - 19 (41 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	53.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-38.0	51.0	W 68 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	-7.0	46.5	W 34 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+5.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+4.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+10.0	55.5	L 11 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-7.5	46.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+9
Fri 11/7	UCF vs Houston	-1.5
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+26.5
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-17.5
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+15.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Cincinnati vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Cincinnati vs Bowling Green	-21.5	46.5	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/13	Cincinnati vs Northwestern State	-48.5	55.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Cincinnati at Kansas	+5.5	55.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-1.5	55.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Cincinnati vs UCF	-10.0	55.5	W 20 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/18	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	-21.5	57.5
Sat 10/25	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-7.5
Sat 11/1	Cincinnati at Utah	+10.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Cincinnati vs Arizona	-10
Sat 11/22	Cincinnati vs BYU	-1
Sat 11/29	Cincinnati at TCU	+2.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#62 (.21)	40% (106)	28.3	41% (92)	2.75 (95)	201	39% (98)	223	3.67 (91)	#42 (.11)	41% (63)	17.8	43% (85)	38% (38)	3.37 (38)	56.7	1	1.2
CIN	#8 (.39)	51% (13)	36	53% (10)	3.66 (5)	191	49% (23)	260	5.08 (12)	#89 (.2)	44% (97)	19.2	45% (98)	43% (90)	2.94 (18)	68.8	0.7	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	6	28.3	15.5	40.2%	3.67	1	21	423	201	223	5.6	48%	52%	41%	39%	16%	.21
CIN Defense	6	19.2	15.3	43.8%	2.94	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	45%	43%	14%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	6	17.8	27	40.7%	3.37	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	43%	38%	17%	.11
CIN Offense	6	36	40.5	50.9%	5.08	0.7	21	450	191	260	6.3	52%	48%	53%	49%	13%	.39

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	6	31:13	21	36%	65%	7.3	56.7	1	1.2	5.3	1.3	1	27.9
Cincinnati	6	24:00	20.5	35%	78%	7.3	68.8	0.7	0.7	5.3	2.5	0	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	6	48% (87)	41% (92)	35.8	200.7	5.6	14 (28)	.22 (34)	2.75 (95)	70% (86)	10% (96)	1.36 (2)
CIN Defense	6	44% (14)	45% (98)	-	-	-	-	.13 (91)	3.27 (126)	74% (85)	10% (74)	0.93 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	6	57% (120)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	.12 (88)	2.81 (55)	78% (102)	11% (48)	1.04 (94)
CIN Offense	6	52% (63)	53% (10)	30.2	190.8	6.3	11 (61)	.27 (20)	3.66 (5)	79% (32)	8% (38)	0.96 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	6	52% (48)	39% (98)	20.7	33.5	222.7	6.7	10.8	4 (125)	2 (11)	.2 (96)	1.5 (94)	32% (84)	26% (104)	.35 (62)	6% (83)	2.4 (6)
CIN Defense	6	56% (124)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	1 (128)	.25 (73)	1.4 (27)	32% (67)	34% (113)	.33 (86)	5% (112)	1.9 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	6	43% (17)	38% (38)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (46)	.1 (24)	1.3 (9)	31% (83)	25% (28)	.11 (20)	6% (75)	1.5 (3)
CIN Offense	6	48% (76)	49% (23)	17.5	26.8	259.5	9.7	14.8	16 (9)	1 (4)	.55 (8)	1.7 (27)	29% (37)	40% (12)	.65 (5)	5% (48)	2.2 (30)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.15 #62
UCF's Offense Rating: 9.26 #79
UCF's Defense Rating: 5.11 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #58
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #77
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.15 Cincinnati: 17.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.2 Cincinnati: 11.9

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 17.97 #31
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 26.89 #13
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 7.85 #69
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #30
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #34
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

UCF Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Cincinnati 35
UCF 21

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Cincinnati 36
UCF 23

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 30
UCF 20

Total Points: 50

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Cincinnati	20	UCF	11	Cincinnati -10	UCF	55.5	Under
2024	10/12	UCF	13	Cincinnati	19	UCF -2	Cincinnati	58.0	Under
2023	11/04	Cincinnati	26	UCF	28	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	59.5	Under
2022	10/29	UCF	25	Cincinnati	21	UCF -1.5	UCF	55.5	Under
2021	10/16	Cincinnati	56	UCF	21	Cincinnati -21.5	Cincinnati	56.0	Over
2020	11/21	UCF	33	Cincinnati	36	Cincinnati -4.5	UCF	66.0	Over
2019	10/04	Cincinnati	27	UCF	24	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	64.0	Under
2018	11/17	UCF	38	Cincinnati	13	UCF -7.5	UCF	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Cincinnati	23	UCF	51	UCF -15	UCF	52.5	Over
2016	11/12	UCF	24	Cincinnati	3	UCF -10	UCF	55.0	Under
2015	10/31	Cincinnati	52	UCF	7	Cincinnati -20.5	Cincinnati	61.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	6	5	3 Overs
UCF	5	6	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	8 - 3	5 - 2	3 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 8	1 - 3	2 - 5

(#62) UCF at (#31) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	CIN
Power RatePwr	#62	#31
SP+SP+	#58	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#7
OffenseOff	#104	#3
DefenseDef	#40	#35
Spec TeamsST	#10	#19
TalentTal	#72	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	#32	#79

UCF Notes
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.

Cincinnati Notes
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
(5/31) Pass rush? DE has 1 good portal, lots of ?
(5/31) LB & DB should be strong, DB portals good

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Perf GradePerf	#104	#35
SuccessSuc	#106	#97
ExplosiveExp	#8	#42
PPAPPA	#62	#89
PowerPwr	#79	#69
SP+SP+	#77	#39
Pts POPPO	#91	#18
HavocHav	#87	#105

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#44	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#98
Run ExplRExp	#2	#63
PPAExp	#34	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#117
TackleTak	-	#8

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#27
PPAExp	#96	#73
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#19	#130
F7 HavocF7	#96	#74
DB HavocDB	#83	#112

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#3	#40
SuccessSuc	#13	#63
ExplosiveExp	#50	#28
PPAPPA	#8	#42
PowerPwr	#13	#49
SP+SP+	#34	#38
Pts POPPO	#12	#38
HavocHav	#33	#56

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#9	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#85
Run ExplRExp	#66	#94
PPAExp	#20	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#39	#54
TackleTak	-	#39

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	#23	#38
Pass ExplPExl	#27	#9
PPAExp	#8	#24
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#43
F7 HavocF7	#38	#48
DB HavocDB	#48	#75

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 64° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Cincinnati -10.0 (55.5)
Cincinnati won vs UCF this year (20-11)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat UCF last year (19-13)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2023 (28-26)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2022 (25-21)

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	80	124	65%	906	3	1	7.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Montgomery	86	434	3	5.0	45
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	25	289	4	11.6	87
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25
Jacurri Brown	16	142	2	8.9	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)	26	272	0	10.5	41
DJ Black	15	241	2	16.1	82
Dylan Wade (Tr)	15	155	1	10.3	39
Marcus Burke (Tr)	10	151	0	15.1	30

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter (Tr)	38	2	1	1	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	35	2	0	0	0
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	28	3	1	0	1
Antoine Jackson	25	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Lawrence	10	4	2	1	2
Lewis Carter (Tr)	38	2	1	1	1
Sincere Edwards (Tr)	13	5	1	1	0
Rodney Lora (Tr)	12	4	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	8	0	4
DJ Bell (Tr)	5	0	2
Antoine Jackson	25	1	2

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	99	153	65%	1448	14	1	9.5
Brady Lichtenberg	4	6	67%	56	1	0	9.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Evan Pryor	44	349	2	7.9	46
Tawee Walker (Tr)	64	344	3	5.4	22
Brendan Sorsby	52	327	5	6.3	29
Manny Covey	5	44	0	8.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie (Tr)	17	354	2	20.8	82
Cyrus Allen (Tr)	27	294	5	10.9	44
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)	16	278	3	17.4	40
Joe Royer	16	265	3	16.6	73

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	55	3	3	2	1
Trevon Gola-Callard	34	2	0	0	3
Jonathan Thompson	30	4	1	2	0
Christian Harrison (Tr)	29	2	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	55	3	3	2	1
Jack Dingle	18	2	2	2	0
Jalen Hunt	14	3	2	0	0
Robert Jackson	5	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Logan Wilson	20	1	5
Christian Harrison (Tr)	29	2	5
Trevon Gola-Callard	34	2	3