Jacksonville State at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview
Jacksonville State logo Jacksonville State Gamecocks at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
UCF -16.5 (53.5) (-750)  Open: -16.5 | 53.5
UCF 17 - Jacksonville State: 10

 
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: UCF -9  (SP+ UCF -4)

Projected Score: JVST: 21 - UCF: 30 (52)
UCF Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
JVST Travel: 450 miles, 1 hrs behind
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Jacksonville State at UCF+16.553.5L 10 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.050.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/13 Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.059.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.560.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/27 Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.555.5L 25 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.053.5W 29 - 27ON
Wed 10/15 Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.055.5W 38 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29 Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.554.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/8 Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.546.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.556.5W 35 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.555.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.556.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 12/5 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.062.5L 15 - 19UN
Tue 12/16 Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.047.5W 17 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#54 (.19)44% (51)28.147% (34)3.15 (32)24839% (98)1623.73 (65)#67 (.16)42% (74)25.242% (67)42% (69)3.78 (79)56.30.91.7
UCF#90 (.14)39% (106)24.339% (112)2.61 (126)15840% (93)2213.49 (90)#53 (.12)44% (94)23.647% (119)40% (54)3.52 (57)57.21.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JVST#22 (.27)45% (35)49% (18)3.36 (17)25440% (95)1894.85 (3)#55 (.14)43% (84)44% (79)43% (85)3.81 (70)58.41.11.6
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Offense1428.12443.9%3.730.9214092481625.463%35%47%39%14%.19
UCF Defense1223.615.743.7%3.521.2 - - - - - 54%45%47%40%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JVST Defense1425.229.242.1%3.781.7 - - - - - 51%47%42%42%17%.16
UCF Offense1224.332.639.1%3.491.5183791582214.945%53%39%40%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Jacksonville State1430:2621.239%53%5.756.30.91.75.42128.6
UCF1229:5518.234%56%7.657.21.51.25.62.1228.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Offense1463% (8)47% (34)46.2247.65.432 (9).21 (26)3.15 (32)68% (95)10% (77)1.1 (17)
UCF Defense1254% (111)47% (119) - - - - .12 (82)3.06 (101)85% (132)10% (45)0.88 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JVST Defense1451% (83)42% (67) - - - - .11 (76)2.71 (29)79% (119)10% (47)1.06 (114)
UCF Offense1245% (106)39% (112)32.3158.24.919 (26).11 (71)2.61 (126)62% (123)11% (106)1.25 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Offense1435% (129)39% (98)13.923.4161.86.911.613 (128)6 (34).19 (102)1.5 (79)29% (27)31% (59).31 (66)4% (21)2 (75)
UCF Defense1245% (28)40% (54) - - - - - - 9 (55).16 (32)1.4 (19)31% (81)25% (16).11 (7)6% (64)1.7 (5)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JVST Defense1447% (45)42% (69) - - - - - - 14 (100).24 (65)1.6 (73)33% (46)30% (80).32 (80)7% (37)2.1 (86)
UCF Offense1253% (30)40% (93)20.833.6220.86.610.612 (114)12 (34).18 (104)1.5 (101)33% (106)24% (126).19 (114)7% (91)2.3 (8)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -10.41  #111
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 9.79  #63
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 20.20  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #88
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #56
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -10.41   UCF: 1.365

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -5.1   UCF: -0.9




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 1.365  #74
UCF's Offense Rating: 4.79  #90
UCF's Defense Rating: 6.16  #53
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.9  #77
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #95
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 30
Jacksonville State 21


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 26
Jacksonville State 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
UCF 28
Jacksonville State 23

Total Points: 51
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28UCF17Jacksonville State10UCF -16.5Jacksonville State53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF100 Overs
Jacksonville State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#111) JVST at (#74) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJVSTUCF
Power RatePwr #111 #74
SP+SP+ #88 #77
Perf GradeGrade #81 #76
OffenseOff #86 #118
DefenseDef #58 #24
Spec TeamsST #82 #21
TalentTal #128 #72
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #32
Jacksonville State Notes
(12/5) Creel is a RB taking snaps. Just an awful QB
(12/3) Have significant injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat WKU to finish 7-1 in conf, play Kenn St in title game
(10/16) HC Kelly has been so much better than I thought
(10/16) RB Cam Cook a beast and criminally underrated
(10/14) QB1 now Caden Creel, Wimsatt (benched) now QB2
(10/10) OG'd SHSU 500-280, had 370 rush, needed GW FG
(10/8) Fr QB Caden Creel replaced Wimsatt in S Miss game
(10/8) QB1 Competition now, Fr Creel mobile but TO issues
(9/22) Off is 4th in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/11) RB Cam Cook (Tr TCU) has been great so far
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
Jacksonville State Injury Report
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Jacksonville State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffUCF Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #24
SuccessSuc #51 #94
ExplosiveExp #65 #8
PPAPPA #54 #53
PowerPwr #63 #53
SP+SP+ #56 #51
Pts POPPO #65 #57
HavocHav #48 #55
Jacksonville State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #39 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #119
Run ExplRExp #17 #28
PPAExp #26 #82
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #101
Stuff RateStuff #61 #113
TackleTak -  #24
Jacksonville State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #103 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #54
Pass ExplPExl #79 #19
PPAExp #102 #32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #39
F7 HavocF7 #77 #45
DB HavocDB #21 #64
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffJVST Def
Perf GradePerf #118 #58
SuccessSuc #106 #74
ExplosiveExp #11 #103
PPAPPA #90 #67
PowerPwr #90 #131
SP+SP+ #95 #113
Pts POPPO #90 #79
HavocHav #106 #42
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffJVST Def
Run GameRun #76 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #67
Run ExplRExp #1 #114
PPAExp #71 #76
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLY #126 #29
Stuff RateStuff #128 #47
TackleTak -  #25
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffJVST Def
Pass GamePass #129 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #93 #69
Pass ExplPExl #101 #73
PPAExp #104 #65
Pass Block/RushP Blk #55 #48
F7 HavocF7 #106 #47
DB HavocDB #91 #37
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.028
Rematch from Week 1
UCF -16.5 (53.5)
UCF won vs Jacksonville State this year (17-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
JVST's OC Clint Trickett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Creel13021162%1514947.2
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)6311256%731426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook (Tr)2961666165.673
Caden Creel182107575.973
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)5226345.144
Khristian Lando5120113.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deondre Johnson (Tr)30724624.177
Brock Rechsteiner36383510.656
Pearson Baldwin26302211.652
Cam Cook (Tr)3028609.554

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Sanders8312252
Walker O'Steen786361
Trevor Woods (Tr)641004
Caleb Nix (Tr)634003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Darrell Prater214400
Malcolm Jones515310
Isaac Walker (Tr)316331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Quon Fegans (Tr)362009
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jaheim Jenkins (Tr)210005

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004