Jacksonville State at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at UCF Knights

Thursday, August 28th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
UCF -16.5 (53.5) (-750) Open: -16.5 | 53.5
UCF 17 - Jacksonville State: 10

Gamecocks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: UCF -11.5 (SP+ UCF -6)
Projected Score: JVST: 20 - UCF: 32 (52)
UCF Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
JVST Travel: 450 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Jacksonville State at UCF	+16.5	53.5	L 10 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+6.0	50.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern	+3.0	59.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Jacksonville State vs Murray State	-35.5	60.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/27	Jacksonville State at Southern Miss	+4.5	55.5	L 25 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston	-7.0	53.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/15	Jacksonville State vs Delaware	+3.0	55.5	W 38 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	-4.5	54.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/8	Jacksonville State at UTEP	-1.5	46.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Jacksonville State at Florida International	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/29	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+1.5	56.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Fri 12/5	Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State	+3.0	62.5	L 15 - 19	U	N
Tue 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Troy	-3.0	47.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	53.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-38.0	51.0	W 68 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	-7.0	46.5	W 34 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+5.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+4.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+10.0	55.5	L 11 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	46.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	L 3 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/7	UCF vs Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-13.5	47.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)	28.1	49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)	25.2	44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	24.3	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	23.6	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	14	28.1	24	45.2%	4.85	1.1	23	443	254	189	5.5	64%	36%	49%	40%	11%	.27
UCF Defense	12	23.6	15.7	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	14	25.2	29.2	43.2%	3.81	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	44%	43%	16%	.14
UCF Offense	12	24.3	32.6	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	14	26:57	22.6	41%	54%	6	58.4	1.1	1.6	5.6	1.7	1	28.5
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	14	64% (4)	49% (18)	45.9	253.6	5.5	51 (1)	.25 (15)	3.36 (17)	67% (107)	8% (23)	1.07 (32)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	14	54% (108)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.09 (52)	3.01 (72)	63% (20)	10% (59)	0.88 (22)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	14	36% (131)	40% (95)	13.4	22.3	189.4	8.5	14.1	14 (108)	7 (26)	.33 (35)	1.9 (5)	27% (10)	32% (65)	.33 (72)	3% (8)	2.1 (51)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	14	46% (27)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.21 (55)	1.5 (56)	30% (102)	33% (105)	.36 (92)	6% (63)	2 (45)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -17.49 #127
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 8.92 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 26.41 #135
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #92
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -17.49 UCF: -0.475

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -6.7 UCF: -1.2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -0.475 #79
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79 #94
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 32
Jacksonville State 20

Projected Total Points: 52

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/28	UCF	17	Jacksonville State	10	UCF -16.5	Jacksonville State	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	0	0 Overs
Jacksonville State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#127) JVST at (#79) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#79
SP+SP+	#92	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#69	#81
OffenseOff	#76	#123
DefenseDef	#44	#21
Spec TeamsST	#107	#32
TalentTal	#128	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#32

Jacksonville State Notes(12/5) Creel is a RB taking snaps. Just an awful QB
(12/3) Have significant injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat WKU to finish 7-1 in conf, play Kenn St in title game
(10/16) HC Kelly has been so much better than I thought
(10/16) RB Cam Cook a beast and criminally underrated
(10/14) QB1 now Caden Creel, Wimsatt (benched) now QB2
(10/10) OG'd SHSU 500-280, had 370 rush, needed GW FG
(10/8) Fr QB Caden Creel replaced Wimsatt in S Miss game
(10/8) QB1 Competition now, Fr Creel mobile but TO issues
(9/22) Off is 4th in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/11) RB Cam Cook (Tr TCU) has been great so far
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
Jacksonville State Injury Report

UCF Notes(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#21
SuccessSuc	#35	#45
ExplosiveExp	#30	#95
PPAPPA	#22	#63
PowerPwr	#93	#66
SP+SP+	#67	#51
Pts POPPO	#3	#118
HavocHav	#7	#64

Jacksonville State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#39	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#12
Run ExplRExp	#32	#90
PPAExp	#15	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#17
TackleTak	-	#31

Jacksonville State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	#95	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#64
PPAExp	#35	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#26	#33
F7 HavocF7	#23	#28
DB HavocDB	#8	#118

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#44
SuccessSuc	#28	#84
ExplosiveExp	#73	#27
PPAPPA	#58	#55
PowerPwr	#94	#135
SP+SP+	#98	#102
Pts POPPO	#86	#70
HavocHav	#51	#66

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#36
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#79
Run ExplRExp	#11	#22
PPAExp	#7	#52
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#63
TackleTak	-	#22

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#85
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#56
PPAExp	#123	#55
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#44	#60
F7 HavocF7	#66	#59
DB HavocDB	#48	#63

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
UCF -16.5 (53.5)
UCF won vs Jacksonville State this year (17-10)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Jacksonville State last year (17-10)

JVST's OC Clint Trickett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Creel	130	211	62%	1514	9	4	7.2
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	63	112	56%	731	4	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook (Tr)	296	1666	16	5.6	73
Caden Creel	182	1075	7	5.9	73
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	52	263	4	5.1	44
Khristian Lando	51	201	1	3.9	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deondre Johnson (Tr)	30	724	6	24.1	77
Brock Rechsteiner	36	383	5	10.6	56
Pearson Baldwin	26	302	2	11.6	52
Cam Cook (Tr)	30	286	0	9.5	54

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Sanders	83	12	2	5	2
Walker O'Steen	78	6	3	6	1
Trevor Woods (Tr)	64	1	0	0	4
Caleb Nix (Tr)	63	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emmanuel Oybadejo	41	7	5	6	5
Darrell Prater	21	4	4	0	0
Isaac Walker (Tr)	31	6	3	3	1
Malcolm Jones	51	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Quon Fegans (Tr)	36	2	0	0	9
Emmanuel Oybadejo	41	7	5	6	5
Jaheim Jenkins (Tr)	21	0	0	0	5

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	200	315	64%	2151	10	8	6.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Montgomery	143	705	4	4.9	45
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	71	554	7	7.8	87
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25
Jacurri Brown	16	142	2	8.9	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade (Tr)	43	523	5	12.2	83
Waden Charles	26	290	0	11.2	30
DJ Black	22	273	2	12.4	82

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	60	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Lawrence	28	11	7	3	2
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Nyjalik Kelly	45	8	2	8	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	27	0	8
DJ Bell (Tr)	17	0	4
Antoine Jackson	39	1	4