Kansas at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kansas -4 (53.5) (-192) Open: -3.0
Kansas 27 - UCF: 20 (Big 12)

Jayhawks (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (22 - 28)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Kansas -3.5 (SP+ KU -4)
Projected Score: KU: 29 - UCF: 25 (54)
KU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
KU Travel: 1076 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
KU Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Kansas vs Fresno State	-14.0	51.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 8/29	Kansas vs Wagner	-45.5	57.5	W 46 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Kansas at Missouri	+5.5	51.0	L 31 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Kansas vs West Virginia	-12.5	54.5	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Kansas vs Cincinnati	-5.5	55.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/4	Kansas at UCF	-4.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Kansas at Texas Tech	+13.5	58.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Kansas vs Kansas State	-3.5	55.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/1	Kansas vs Oklahoma State	-24.5	54.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/8	Kansas at Arizona	+5.5	56.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Kansas at Iowa State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/28	Kansas vs Utah	+10.5	59.5	L 21 - 31	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas's Schedule

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	53.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-38.0	51.0	W 68 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	-7.0	46.5	W 34 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+5.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+4.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+10.0	55.5	L 11 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	46.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	L 3 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/7	UCF vs Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-13.5	47.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KU	#27 (.25)	48% (15)	28.1	51% (6)	3.53 (4)	170	46% (31)	220	3.94 (47)	#121 (.25)	42% (68)	26.8	41% (62)	42% (71)	4.24 (120)	39.8	1.1	0.8
UCF	#90 (.14)	39% (106)	24.3	39% (112)	2.61 (126)	158	40% (93)	221	3.49 (90)	#53 (.12)	44% (94)	23.6	47% (119)	40% (54)	3.52 (57)	57.2	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KU	#9 (.32)	48% (16)		49% (15)	3.6 (3)	213	48% (11)	209	4.68 (11)	#108 (.23)	45% (99)		46% (104)	43% (95)	3.83 (73)	38.4	1.4	1.4
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KU Offense	12	28.1	21.8	48.4%	3.94	1.1	21	390	170	220	4.8	51%	47%	51%	46%	14%	.25
UCF Defense	12	23.6	15.7	43.7%	3.52	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	40%	16%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KU Defense	12	26.8	33.2	41.7%	4.24	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	42%	18%	.25
UCF Offense	12	24.3	32.6	39.1%	3.49	1.5	18	379	158	221	4.9	45%	53%	39%	40%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kansas	12	30:40	20.6	39%	57%	5	39.8	1.1	0.8	6.3	2	1	29.1
UCF	12	29:55	18.2	34%	56%	7.6	57.2	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.1	2	28.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KU Offense	12	51% (54)	51% (6)	35.5	169.8	4.8	17 (99)	.22 (19)	3.53 (4)	84% (4)	9% (46)	0.87 (109)
UCF Defense	12	54% (111)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	.12 (82)	3.06 (101)	85% (132)	10% (45)	0.88 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KU Defense	12	51% (79)	41% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (88)	2.84 (59)	77% (109)	11% (26)	1.1 (124)
UCF Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (112)	32.3	158.2	4.9	19 (26)	.11 (71)	2.61 (126)	62% (123)	11% (106)	1.25 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KU Offense	12	47% (87)	46% (31)	17.6	28.8	220	7.7	12.5	23 (8)	8 (7)	.32 (45)	1.5 (76)	28% (19)	32% (42)	.27 (81)	6% (59)	1.8 (117)
UCF Defense	12	45% (28)	40% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.16 (32)	1.4 (19)	31% (81)	25% (16)	.11 (7)	6% (64)	1.7 (5)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KU Defense	12	48% (65)	42% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (75)	.39 (121)	1.7 (126)	34% (34)	33% (105)	.43 (125)	7% (41)	2.2 (125)
UCF Offense	12	53% (30)	40% (93)	20.8	33.6	220.8	6.6	10.6	12 (114)	12 (34)	.18 (104)	1.5 (101)	33% (106)	24% (126)	.19 (114)	7% (91)	2.3 (8)

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 6.76 #52
Kansas's Offense Rating: 17.92 #23
Kansas's Defense Rating: 11.16 #86
2025 Talent Rating: 770.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Kansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.2 #59
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #46
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #78

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kansas: 6.76 UCF: 1.365

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kansas: 3.2 UCF: -0.9

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 1.365 #74
UCF's Offense Rating: 4.79 #90
UCF's Defense Rating: 6.16 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.9 #77
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

Kansas's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas 29
UCF 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 35
Kansas 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
UCF 29
Kansas 22

Total Points: 51

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	UCF	20	Kansas	27	Kansas -4	Kansas	53.5	Under
2023	10/07	Kansas	51	UCF	22	UCF -2	Kansas	65.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	0	0	1 Overs
Kansas	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0

(#52) KU at (#74) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	KU	UCF
Power RatePwr	#52	#74
SP+SP+	#59	#77
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#76
OffenseOff	#38	#118
DefenseDef	#66	#24
Spec TeamsST	#26	#21
TalentTal	#62	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#32

Kansas Notes(9/24) RB Hinshaw doubtful for Cincy game
(9/24) Off good success not expl, Daniels a weapon
(9/24) Def Success #'s really good early, but bad Expl
(9/20) Run Off mauled WVU, Daniels efficient, Def decent
(7/30) RB Williams was Iowa leader (800+) in '23
(7/19) Replacing career 4.5k RB yds, 7k WR yds
(5/23) KU was 1-5 in 1 score games LY (of 7 L's)
(4/4) QB Daniels back, electric when healthy
(4/4) RB rebuild. Hishaw exp'd, added Williams (Iowa)
(4/4) OL 2/5 back, good LY. 3 portal adds
(4/4) Def bad LY, replaces a lot. 11 portal adds
(3/21) WR total rebuild. 3 portals. Pickett (BG) #1?
Kansas Injury Report

UCF Notes(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report

Kansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#38	#24
SuccessSuc	#15	#94
ExplosiveExp	#112	#8
PPAPPA	#27	#53
PowerPwr	#23	#53
SP+SP+	#46	#51
Pts POPPO	#47	#57
HavocHav	#53	#55

Kansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#37	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#119
Run ExplRExp	#109	#28
PPAExp	#19	#82
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#113
TackleTak	-	#24

Kansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#19
PPAExp	#45	#32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#39
F7 HavocF7	#46	#45
DB HavocDB	#59	#64

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#66
SuccessSuc	#106	#68
ExplosiveExp	#11	#131
PPAPPA	#90	#121
PowerPwr	#90	#86
SP+SP+	#95	#78
Pts POPPO	#90	#120
HavocHav	#106	#28

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	#76	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#62
Run ExplRExp	#1	#124
PPAExp	#71	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#126	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#33
TackleTak	-	#99

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#126
PPAExp	#104	#121
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#55	#41
F7 HavocF7	#106	#26
DB HavocDB	#91	#41

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

KU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 74° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Kansas 4.0 (53.5)
Kansas won at UCF this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Kansas beat UCF in 2023 (51-22)

KU's OC Jim Zebrowski (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalon Daniels	198	319	62%	2504	22	7	7.8
Cole Ballard	10	22	46%	108	1	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Hishaw Jr.	124	587	5	4.7	22
Leshon Williams (Tr)	97	565	7	5.8	62
Jalon Daniels	117	423	4	3.6	38
Isaiah Marshall	15	160	0	10.7	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (Tr)	45	766	5	17.0	93
Boden Groen (Tr)	36	450	5	12.5	46
Cam Pickett (Tr)	45	449	3	10.0	38
Levi Wentz	16	258	2	16.1	50

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC D.K. McDonald (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Lathan (Tr)	86	7	2	6	5
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	0	3	7
Bangally Kamara (Tr)	54	9	1	1	4
Austin Alexander	46	4	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)	31	7	5	1	8
Tommy Dunn	26	4	3	2	1
D.J. Withers	16	5	3	1	0
Jalen Todd	44	2	2	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)	31	7	5	1	8
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	0	3	7
Trey Lathan (Tr)	86	7	2	6	5

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	200	315	64%	2151	10	8	6.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Montgomery	143	705	4	4.9	45
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	71	554	7	7.8	87
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25
Jacurri Brown	16	142	2	8.9	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade (Tr)	43	523	5	12.2	83
Waden Charles	26	290	0	11.2	30
DJ Black	22	273	2	12.4	82

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	60	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Lawrence	28	11	7	3	2
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Nyjalik Kelly	45	8	2	8	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	27	0	8
DJ Bell (Tr)	17	0	4
Antoine Jackson	39	1	4