Cincinnati at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Cincinnati logo (#24)Cincinnati Bearcats at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -21.5 (57.5) (-1650)  Open: -21.5
Boone Pickens Stadium - Stillwater, OK  (Big 12)

 
Bearcats (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 36 - 19 (37 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
OKST 2nd straight Home Game
OKST is playing their 5th straight game
CIN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -23.5  (SP+ CIN -24)

Projected Score: CIN: 41 - OKST: 17 (58)
CIN Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
CIN Travel: 717 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cowboys (1 - 5) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Doug Meacham (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 37 (21 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.4 - 10.6 (#134)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-21.557.5
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-7.5
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-10
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU-1
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+2.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+21.557.5
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+41.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+14.5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+17.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+20

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN#8 (.39)51% (13)3653% (10)3.66 (5)19149% (23)2605.08 (12)#89 (.2)44% (97)19.245% (98)43% (90)2.94 (18)68.80.70.7
OKST#129 (.04)33% (134)16.535% (130)2.53 (123)12531% (131)1763.46 (109)#130 (.3)45% (107)36.741% (54)50% (130)4.05 (88)60.70.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Offense6363750.9%5.080.7214501912606.352%48%53%49%13%.39
OKST Defense636.727.544.9%4.051.2 - - - - - 51%48%41%50%16%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Defense619.23443.8%2.940.7 - - - - - 44%56%45%43%14%.2
OKST Offense616.520.833%3.460.8153011251763.646%54%35%31%19%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Cincinnati624:0020.535%78%7.368.80.70.75.32.5030.6
Oklahoma State627:3015.333%38%6.560.70.81.25.82125.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Offense652% (63)53% (10)30.2190.86.311 (61).27 (20)3.66 (5)79% (32)8% (38)0.96 (66)
OKST Defense651% (84)41% (54) - - - - .14 (95)2.9 (79)74% (83)10% (69)1.17 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Defense644% (14)45% (98) - - - - .13 (91)3.27 (126)74% (85)10% (74)0.93 (63)
OKST Offense646% (96)35% (130)35124.73.65 (115)-.03 (128)2.53 (123)71% (76)11% (107)0.92 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Offense648% (76)49% (23)17.526.8259.59.714.816 (9)1 (4).55 (8)1.7 (27)29% (37)40% (12).65 (5)5% (48)2.2 (30)
OKST Defense648% (52)50% (130) - - - - - - 3 (93).49 (132)1.7 (103)29% (113)31% (88).43 (119)6% (80)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Defense656% (124)43% (90) - - - - - - 1 (128).25 (73)1.4 (27)32% (67)34% (113).33 (86)5% (112)1.9 (47)
OKST Offense654% (38)31% (131)16.730.7176.25.710.64 (125)4 (50).1 (120)1.6 (60)40% (136)21% (132).17 (109)8% (125)2.1 (43)

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 19.04  #31
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 26.89  #13
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 7.85  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #30
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #34
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 19.04   Oklahoma State: -8.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 11.9   Oklahoma State: -12.2




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -8.21  #108
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 4.05  #110
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 13.27  #97
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.4 - 10.6
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.2  #112
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #111
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #109

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 41
Oklahoma State 17


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Cincinnati 37
Oklahoma State 22

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 34
Oklahoma State 23

Total Points: 57
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 16.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.8
Defense: 36.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.5

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Oklahoma State45Cincinnati13Oklahoma State -7Oklahoma State53.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State111 Overs
Cincinnati000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#31) CIN at (#108) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCINOKST
Power RatePwr #31 #108
SP+SP+ #30 #112
Perf GradeGrade #7 #129
OffenseOff #3 #134
DefenseDef #35 #97
Spec TeamsST #19 #88
TalentTal #53 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #65

Cincinnati Notes
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
(5/31) Pass rush? DE has 1 good portal, lots of ?
(5/31) LB & DB should be strong, DB portals good

Oklahoma State Notes
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
(7/30) 65 total new players, 35 added after spring
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
CIN OffOKST Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #97
SuccessSuc #13 #107
ExplosiveExp #50 #126
PPAPPA #8 #130
PowerPwr #13 #97
SP+SP+ #34 #109
Pts POPPO #12 #88
HavocHav #33 #73
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
CIN OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #9 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #54
Run ExplRExp #66 #121
PPAExp #20 #95
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #79
Stuff RateStuff #39 #70
TackleTak -  #114
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
CIN OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #4 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #23 #130
Pass ExplPExl #27 #103
PPAExp #8 #132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #64 #67
F7 HavocF7 #38 #69
DB HavocDB #48 #80
Oklahoma State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatOKST OffCIN Def
Perf GradePerf #134 #35
SuccessSuc #134 #97
ExplosiveExp #64 #42
PPAPPA #129 #89
PowerPwr #110 #69
SP+SP+ #111 #39
Pts POPPO #109 #18
HavocHav #123 #105
Oklahoma State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKST OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #100 #20
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #98
Run ExplRExp #92 #63
PPAExp #128 #91
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #126
Stuff RateStuff #91 #117
TackleTak -  #8
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatOKST OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #132 #35
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #90
Pass ExplPExl #60 #27
PPAExp #120 #73
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #130
F7 HavocF7 #107 #74
DB HavocDB #125 #112
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CIN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Oklahoma State beat Cincinnati in 2023 (45-13)

  
CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby9915365%14481419.5
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Pryor4434927.946
Tawee Walker (Tr)6434435.422
Brendan Sorsby5232756.329
Manny Covey54408.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Goodie (Tr)17354220.882
Cyrus Allen (Tr)27294510.944
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)16278317.440
Joe Royer16265316.673

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday553321
Trevon Gola-Callard342003
Jonathan Thompson304120
Christian Harrison (Tr)292005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday553321
Jack Dingle182220
Jalen Hunt143200
Robert Jackson52200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Logan Wilson201005
Christian Harrison (Tr)292005
Trevon Gola-Callard342003

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores7714055%696035.0
Sam Jackson142752%161116.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.5525704.736
Kalib Hicks (Tr)3911703.014
Zane Flores3011413.827
Trenten Howland2710824.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman19203210.733
Rodney Fields Jr.16188111.863
Shamar Rigby (Tr)12171014.341
Terrill Davis (Tr)12149012.441

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Clint Bowen (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)401011
Brandon Rawls402200
Parker Robertson353002
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)260001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)199341
Brandon Rawls402200
Malik Charles (Tr)162200
Poasa Utu62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Smith120013
Kenneth Harris150013
Landyn Cleveland151002