Tulsa at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo   Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma State Cowboys  Oklahoma State logo
Friday, September 19th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Oklahoma State -10.5 (54.5) (-425)  Open: -13.5 | 55.5
Tulsa 19 - Oklahoma State: 12

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
OKST coming off BYE
TLSA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oklahoma State -0  (SP+ TLSA -5)

Projected Score: TLSA: 26 - OKST: 26 (52)
OKST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TLSA Travel: 63 miles
Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (17 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.554.5W 19 - 12UY
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+14.552.5L 14 - 31UN
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+21.054.5L 7 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+16.554.5L 27 - 41OY
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+4.552.5L 37 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.560.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.550.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+10.043.5W 26 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-9.056.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.557.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.556.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.554.5L 21 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.550.5L 6 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+13.547.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.547.5L 13 - 20UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)23.235% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)28.938% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)14.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)33.347% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OKST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.21934.1%3.541.920390151239447%53%35%33%18%.06
OKST Defense1233.327.645.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1228.930.742.2%4.71.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%46%15%.31
OKST Offense1214.21743.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1229:4420.437%32%5.9511.91.36.61.5328.9
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1247% (93)35% (128)37.5151.4411 (116)-.03 (125)2.88 (97)74% (65)12% (110)0.9 (102)
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1248% (40)38% (23) - - - - .11 (65)2.82 (40)69% (42)11% (42)1.2 (130)
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1253% (43)33% (126)20.736.4238.66.611.523 (41)12 (85).16 (104)1.8 (21)34% (116)22% (131).17 (118)6% (77)2.2 (16)
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1252% (97)46% (115) - - - - - - 9 (76).51 (131)1.9 (133)32% (64)33% (100).45 (118)4% (130)2.3 (132)
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -7.56  #91
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 6.85  #110
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 14.41  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.0  #104
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -7.56   Oklahoma State: -8.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -10.0   Oklahoma State: -15.1




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -8.76  #89
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49  #106
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2  #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Tulsa 26
Oklahoma State 26


Projected Total Points: 52
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.6

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/19Oklahoma State12Tulsa19Oklahoma State -10.5Tulsa54.5Under
202409/14Tulsa10Oklahoma State45Oklahoma State -17.5Oklahoma State62.5Under
202109/11Oklahoma State28Tulsa23Oklahoma State -11.5Tulsa51.0Push
202009/19Oklahoma State16Tulsa7Oklahoma State -23.5Tulsa67.0Under
201909/14Tulsa21Oklahoma State40Oklahoma State -14Oklahoma State64.0Under
201708/31Oklahoma State59Tulsa24Oklahoma State -19.5Oklahoma State71.5Over
201109/17Tulsa33Oklahoma State59
201009/18Oklahoma State65Tulsa28
200409/11Oklahoma State38Tulsa21
200009/08Tulsa26Oklahoma State36
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State931 Overs
Tulsa134 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 51 - 51 - 30 - 2
Road Teams5 - 55 - 12 - 03 - 1

(#91) TLSA at (#89) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTLSAOKST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #91 #89
SP+SP+ #104 #121
Perf GradeGrade #51 #131
OffenseOff #94 #133
DefenseDef #15 #118
Spec TeamsST #52 #125
TalentTal #87 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #65
Tulsa Notes
(11/22) Great fight & finish beating Oregon St & Army
(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report
Oklahoma State Notes
(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffOKST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #94 #118
SuccessSuc #131 #109
ExplosiveExp #27 #132
PPAPPA #124 #131
PowerPwr #110 #77
SP+SP+ #105 #100
Pts POPPO #100 #82
HavocHav #105 #89
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #47 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #128 #107
Run ExplRExp #102 #133
PPAExp #125 #133
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #126
Stuff RateStuff #76 #119
TackleTak -  #89
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #109 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #126 #108
Pass ExplPExl #21 #124
PPAExp #104 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #94 #111
F7 HavocF7 #110 #112
DB HavocDB #77 #53
Oklahoma State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatOKST OffTLSA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #15
SuccessSuc #63 #75
ExplosiveExp #69 #133
PPAPPA #52 #127
PowerPwr #106 #74
SP+SP+ #131 #107
Pts POPPO #42 #130
HavocHav #45 #82
Oklahoma State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
OKST OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #126 #11
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #23
Run ExplRExp #119 #130
PPAExp #109 #65
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #40
Stuff RateStuff #80 #23
TackleTak -  #6
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatOKST OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #133 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #115
Pass ExplPExl #67 #133
PPAExp #30 #131
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #35
F7 HavocF7 #19 #42
DB HavocDB #109 #130
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Oklahoma State -10.5 (54.5)
Tulsa won at Oklahoma State this year (19-12)

Previous Matchups
Tulsa beat Oklahoma State last year (19-12)
Oklahoma State beat Tulsa in 2024 (45-10)

  
TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)18631659%21591266.8
Kirk Francis538860%493345.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)212106555.057
Ajay Allen (Tr)9749755.140
Braylin Presley3221516.728
Baylor Hayes (Tr)9518832.024
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Zion Booker (Tr)4641829.140
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Zion Steptoe21272013.042

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)1287242
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)2810711
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)147511
Ty Cooper (Tr)257311
Nahki Johnson (Tr)277300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores15526259%1454375.5
Sam Jackson356653%351125.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.12461415.041
Trenten Howland6324333.924
Sesi Vailahi4215223.614
Kalib Hicks (Tr)4412802.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman5348149.133
Terrill Davis (Tr)29373012.941
Shamar Rigby (Tr)25351114.048
Rodney Fields Jr.2827619.963

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Robertson779115
Bryan McCoy (Tr)712041
Brandon Rawls685200
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)392101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)2712471
Malik Charles (Tr)283310
Taje Mccoy (Tr)214211
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.242211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenneth Harris332115
Parker Robertson779115
Cam Smith341014