Iowa State at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo (#12)Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Nippert Stadium - Cincinnati, OH  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (4 - 0) (2 - 1 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 30 - 14 (24 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Cincinnati -1.5   (SP+ ISU -5.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 25 - CIN: 26 (51)
CIN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (52 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-8.5
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-4
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-2
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-6.5
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-17.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas-0.5
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.5
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-9.5
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-16
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-4
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+10
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-7
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU-3
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#45 (.29)45% (56)29.840% (94)2.87 (82)16151% (28)2224.14 (63)#41 (.05)36% (48)14.340% (75)33% (35)3 (50)2711.5
CIN#16 (.44)56% (13)40.356% (16)3.77 (11)18457% (11)2555.56 (10)#63 (.12)45% (106)13.341% (79)48% (116)2.86 (46)45.710.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense429.82445.5%4.141203831612224.254%46%40%51%14%.29
CIN Defense313.31044.9%2.860.7 - - - - - 44%56%41%48%15%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense414.31636.4%31.5 - - - - - 50%50%40%33%19%.05
CIN Offense340.35256.2%5.561204381842556.652%47%56%57%13%.44

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State430:5020.350%100%32711.561.8031.5
Cincinnati321:2120.333%100%545.710.76.73031.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense454% (50)40% (94)381614.27 (38).12 (76)2.87 (82)71% (67)8% (53)0.95 (70)
CIN Defense344% (34)41% (79) - - - - -.06 (31)2.63 (52)69% (66)12% (41)0.77 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense450% (67)40% (75) - - - - -.03 (39)2.75 (66)69% (63)12% (44)0.7 (15)
CIN Offense352% (58)56% (16)28183.76.66 (49).32 (28)3.77 (11)75% (52)8% (50)0.94 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense446% (84)51% (28)17.326.32228.512.97 (23)1 (23).48 (26)1.4 (93)29% (51)30% (77).35 (63)6% (95)1.9 (87)
CIN Defense356% (109)48% (116) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (89)1.2 (10)31% (87)38% (122).33 (86)3% (123)1.5 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense450% (71)33% (35) - - - - - - 4 (12).12 (42)1.8 (116)35% (43)27% (50).12 (36)7% (38)1.7 (36)
CIN Offense347% (81)57% (11)1724254.710.61510 (7)1 (23).65 (10)1.5 (74)22% (10)43% (20).78 (11)6% (84)2.2 (46)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 15.62 #38
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 15.62   Cincinnati: 16.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 14.3   Cincinnati: 8.9




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 16.26 #33
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 24.04 #21
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.41 #59
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #43
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #34

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 14.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 26
Iowa State 25


Total Points: 51

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Iowa State34Cincinnati17Iowa StateIowa State -7Iowa State52.5Under
202310/14Cincinnati10Iowa State30Iowa StateCincinnati -4Iowa State42.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati000 Overs
Iowa State222 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#38) Iowa State Info
Power Rating: 15.62 #38
Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15
Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.14 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 36%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Iowa State has lost 1 straight
Iowa State has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Iowa State Notes
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
(5/23) ISU was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/4) CB Jontez Williams a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT D. Orange a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/20) QB Becht returns, dynamic & clutch
(3/20) RB Hansen/Sama return, v good combo
(3/20) WR rebuild, portal Sowell (ECU) helps a lot
(3/20) OL 3/5 back, 2 w/ good exp. Must improve TY
(3/20) Def exposed LY, need new DE's & more

Iowa State Highlights
Iowa State in Undefeated

Iowa State has Really Good Running Game (#22)
Iowa State offense is good on 3rd downs
Iowa State commits very few Penalties (#25)
Iowa State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Iowa State Deficiencies
Iowa State Fumbles a Lot (#113)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCINISU
OverallOver#6#19
OffenseOff#6#19
DefenseDef#12#53
Special TeamsST#40#14
PassingPass#4#10
RushingRush#8#48
Run BlockRBLK#12#32
Pass BlockPBLK#25#58
Route RunningWR Rt#21#31
TacklingTkl#3#72
Run DefenseR Def#4#43
Pass Rush DefPRush#88#91
Coverage DefCov#19#42

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Cincinnati last year (34-17)
Iowa State beat Cincinnati in 2023 (30-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ISU | CIN
Depth Chart: ISU | CIN
Rosters: ISU | CIN
(#33) Cincinnati Info
Power Rating: 16.26 #33
Offense Rating: 24.04 #21
Defense Rating: 5.41 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #50
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #34
Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.56 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 57%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 2.86 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Cincinnati has lost 1 straight
Cincinnati has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Cincinnati Notes
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
(5/31) Pass rush? DE has 1 good portal, lots of ?
(5/31) LB & DB should be strong, DB portals good
(5/31) RB bad LY, Walker (Wisc) a big add, Pryor exp'd
(5/31) WR meh LY, 3 portals should improve things
(5/31) OL 2/5 back. OT's upgrade w/ 2 portal adds
(4/4) DT Dontay Corleone a top 10 DT via PFF

Cincinnati Highlights
Cincinnati is Undefeated at Home

Cincinnati offense is efficent (#13)
Cincinnati has a top Offensive Line (#11)
Cincinnati offense is good in red zone (#10)
Cincinnati Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Cincinnati defense does not give up big plays (#14)

Cincinnati Deficiencies
Cincinnati offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Cincinnati has a bad defense (#106)


  
Iowa State's OC Taylor Mouser
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht6510065%860718.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen5425204.738
Abu Sama III3818224.844
Dylan Lee138116.228
Rocco Becht274821.810
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen7162123.166
Gabe Burkle10149114.944
Xavier Townsend (Tr)7132018.944
Benjamin Brahmer1410937.821

View Iowa State's Full Roster
Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal295101
Jamison Patton210001
Caleb Bacon193020
Kooper Ebel182110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)83220
Marcus Neal295101
Kooper Ebel182110
Ikenna Ezeogu43141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper92003
Ta'Shawn James80003
Jontez Williams122002

Cincinnati's OC Brad Glenn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby456470%6558110.2
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendan Sorsby2217548.029
Tawee Walker (Tr)2415116.322
Evan Pryor1710005.920
Manny Covey54408.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)9172119.139
Caleb Goodie (Tr)8160120.055
Cyrus Allen (Tr)12145312.144
Joe Royer8138217.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster
Cincinnati's DC Tyson Veidt
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday282200
Trevon Gola-Callard171001
Jonathan Thompson163110
Jiquan Sanks141000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday282200
Robert Jackson52200
Jack Dingle82220
Brian Simms III92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Logan Wilson81002
Trevon Gola-Callard171001
Christian Harrison (Tr)131001