Iowa State at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo   Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -1.5 (55.5) (-125)  Open: -3.5
Cincinnati 38 - Iowa State: 30  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (8 - 4) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (22 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Cincinnati -3.5  (SP+ ISU -5.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 25 - CIN: 28 (53)
CIN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+7.558.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-3.055.5W 38 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)27.440% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)20.246% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)30.344% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)25.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1427.422.240.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2
CIN Defense1225.619.642.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1420.221.642.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
CIN Offense1230.334.444.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 9.32  #41
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 19.26  #32
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 9.94  #46
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #33
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #63
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.32   Cincinnati: 12.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.9   Cincinnati: 4.5




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 12.92  #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32  #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 28
Iowa State 25


Projected Total Points: 53
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Cincinnati38Iowa State30Cincinnati -1.5Cincinnati55.5Over
202411/16Iowa State34Cincinnati17Iowa State -7Iowa State52.5Under
202310/14Cincinnati10Iowa State30Cincinnati -4Iowa State42.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati111 Overs
Iowa State222 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#41) ISU at (#17) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #41 #17
SP+SP+ #33 #56
Perf GradeGrade #56 #34
OffenseOff #45 #20
DefenseDef #83 #78
Spec TeamsST #107 #66
TalentTal #66 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #79
Iowa State Notes
(12/7) Declined bowl game. 2025 season is over.
(12/5) HC Matt Campbell going to Penn State
(12/5) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers, Wazzu HC (S Dak St too)
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
Iowa State Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #78
SuccessSuc #99 #76
ExplosiveExp #7 #75
PPAPPA #62 #75
PowerPwr #32 #28
SP+SP+ #63 #67
Pts POPPO #37 #40
HavocHav #40 #67
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #39 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #94
Run ExplRExp #19 #49
PPAExp #74 #77
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #98
Stuff RateStuff #115 #56
TackleTak -  #35
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #24 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #43
Pass ExplPExl #27 #108
PPAExp #49 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #92 #130
F7 HavocF7 #22 #51
DB HavocDB #94 #87
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffISU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #20 #83
SuccessSuc #43 #81
ExplosiveExp #79 #83
PPAPPA #59 #79
PowerPwr #19 #46
SP+SP+ #50 #25
Pts POPPO #118 #29
HavocHav #69 #84
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffISU Def
Run GameRun #30 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #101
Run ExplRExp #34 #112
PPAExp #59 #114
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #76
Stuff RateStuff #105 #43
TackleTak -  #126
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #12 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #41
Pass ExplPExl #121 #73
PPAExp #63 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #128
F7 HavocF7 #93 #85
DB HavocDB #33 #86
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Cincinnati -1.5 (55.5)
Cincinnati won vs Iowa State this year (38-30)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Iowa State last year (38-30)
Iowa State beat Cincinnati in 2024 (34-17)
Iowa State beat Cincinnati in 2023 (30-10)

  
ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen18795065.165
Abu Sama III14173255.244
Dylan Lee2511714.728
Rocco Becht8711181.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer37446612.127
Gabe Burkle26302111.644

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon6810343
Jamison Patton481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon6810343
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)264240
Will McLaughlin132201
Kooper Ebel778153
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Quentin Taylor Jr.272005
Kooper Ebel778153

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg142167%134216.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey2719417.236
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)506601213.288
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jonathan Thompson679120
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt266400
Jack Dingle513230
Montay Weedon273200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Daniel James150004