Bowling Green at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Bowling Green logo Bowling Green Falcons at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -21.5 (46.5) (-2000)  Open: -20.5 | 46.5
Cincinnati 34 - Bowling Green: 20

 
Falcons (3 - 3) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 25 (19 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
CIN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Cincinnati -32.5  (SP+ CIN -24)

Projected Score: BGSU: 8 - CIN: 40 (48)
CIN Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 162 miles
Bearcats (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 36 - 19 (41 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.053.0W 26 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.546.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.051.5W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+26.550.5L 17 - 40OY
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+7.549.5L 20 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.545.5W 28 - 23OY
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-4.542.5
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-3
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo+4.5
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+2.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-4.5
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-21.557.5
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-7.5
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-10
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU-1
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+2.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#130 (.03)37% (124)22.337% (124)2.81 (84)14138% (115)1663.2 (120)#72 (.17)43% (88)25.341% (56)45% (106)3.51 (51)531.21.8
CIN#8 (.39)51% (13)3653% (10)3.66 (5)19149% (23)2605.08 (12)#89 (.2)44% (97)19.245% (98)43% (90)2.94 (18)68.80.70.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)41% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)39% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense622.31937%3.21.2173071411663.955%45%37%38%16%.03
CIN Defense619.215.343.8%2.940.7 - - - - - 44%56%45%43%14%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense625.336.342.8%3.511.8 - - - - - 52%48%41%45%18%.17
CIN Offense63640.550.9%5.080.7214501912606.352%48%53%49%13%.39

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green630:3116.734%33%6.5531.21.86.32.3131.7
Cincinnati624:0020.535%78%7.368.80.70.75.32.5030.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense655% (33)37% (124)35.7140.73.96 (107).02 (114)2.81 (84)65% (105)10% (89)0.99 (59)
CIN Defense644% (14)45% (98) - - - - .13 (91)3.27 (126)74% (85)10% (74)0.93 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense652% (92)41% (56) - - - - .07 (57)2.79 (51)64% (35)13% (20)1 (86)
CIN Offense652% (63)53% (10)30.2190.86.311 (61).27 (20)3.66 (5)79% (32)8% (38)0.96 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense645% (104)38% (115)16.225.7165.86.510.37 (99)6 (102).06 (125)1.5 (98)35% (121)24% (119).26 (92)6% (87)2.2 (28)
CIN Defense656% (124)43% (90) - - - - - - 1 (128).25 (73)1.4 (27)32% (67)34% (113).33 (86)5% (112)1.9 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense648% (46)45% (106) - - - - - - 4 (62).28 (87)1.6 (80)28% (114)33% (108).35 (90)5% (93)1.9 (38)
CIN Offense648% (76)49% (23)17.526.8259.59.714.816 (9)1 (4).55 (8)1.7 (27)29% (37)40% (12).65 (5)5% (48)2.2 (30)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -16.67  #126
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: -0.76  #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 15.91  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3  #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #113
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.0  #103

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -16.67   Cincinnati: 17.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -12.3   Cincinnati: 11.9




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 17.97  #31
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 26.89  #13
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 7.85  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #30
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #34
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 40
Bowling Green 8


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 28
Cincinnati 14

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 35
Bowling Green 19

Total Points: 54
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Cincinnati34Bowling Green20Cincinnati -21.5Bowling Green46.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati101 Overs
Bowling Green010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#126) BGSU at (#31) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSUCIN
Power RatePwr #126 #31
SP+SP+ #113 #30
Perf GradeGrade #104 #7
OffenseOff #109 #3
DefenseDef #107 #35
Spec TeamsST #95 #19
TalentTal #112 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79

Bowling Green Notes
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(10/11) QB1 Pyne out (undisclosed), L Anderson (So) vs Tol
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
(7/17) OL bad LY, 3/5 back. Interior OK, OT? 1 portal
(4/7) QB Lamson (Stan) left when Loeffler (Eagles)
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. Not many options
(3/26) WR rebuild, TE Fannin out. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def bad LY, replace most. 7 portal adds

Cincinnati Notes
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
(5/31) Pass rush? DE has 1 good portal, lots of ?
(5/31) LB & DB should be strong, DB portals good
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
Perf GradePerf #109 #35
SuccessSuc #124 #97
ExplosiveExp #92 #42
PPAPPA #130 #89
PowerPwr #133 #69
SP+SP+ #113 #39
Pts POPPO #120 #18
HavocHav #87 #105
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #113 #20
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #98
Run ExplRExp #59 #63
PPAExp #114 #91
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #126
Stuff RateStuff #103 #117
TackleTak -  #8
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #107 #35
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #90
Pass ExplPExl #98 #27
PPAExp #125 #73
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #130
F7 HavocF7 #89 #74
DB HavocDB #87 #112
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatCIN OffBGSU Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #107
SuccessSuc #13 #88
ExplosiveExp #50 #86
PPAPPA #8 #72
PowerPwr #13 #106
SP+SP+ #34 #103
Pts POPPO #12 #51
HavocHav #33 #33
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
CIN OffBGSU Def
Run GameRun #9 #101
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #56
Run ExplRExp #66 #86
PPAExp #20 #57
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #51
Stuff RateStuff #39 #15
TackleTak -  #33
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatCIN OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePass #4 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #23 #106
Pass ExplPExl #27 #80
PPAExp #8 #87
Pass Block/RushP Blk #64 #60
F7 HavocF7 #38 #20
DB HavocDB #48 #93
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Cincinnati -21.5 (46.5)
Cincinnati won vs Bowling Green this year (34-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BGSU's OC Travis Partridge (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)8713564%830456.1
Lucian Anderson III91656%92215.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris McMillian5824834.333
Kaderris Roberts4120305.015
Cameron Pettaway4120004.930
Lucian Anderson III198514.575
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)15189112.631
RJ Garcia II1916708.825
Finn Hogan11165015.024
Cameron Pettaway7135219.373

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)578211
Kal-El Pascal411001
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)344110
Dorian Pringle276100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley85420
David Afogho173311
Eriq George (Tr)103210
Gideon Lampron (Tr)578211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Marshall162113
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)260003
Key'on Washington (Tr)221102

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby9915365%14481419.5
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Pryor4434927.946
Tawee Walker (Tr)6434435.422
Brendan Sorsby5232756.329
Manny Covey54408.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Goodie (Tr)17354220.882
Cyrus Allen (Tr)27294510.944
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)16278317.440
Joe Royer16265316.673

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday553321
Trevon Gola-Callard342003
Jonathan Thompson304120
Christian Harrison (Tr)292005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday553321
Jack Dingle182220
Jalen Hunt143200
Robert Jackson52200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Logan Wilson201005
Christian Harrison (Tr)292005
Trevon Gola-Callard342003