Bowling Green at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Bowling Green logo   Bowling Green Falcons at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -21.5 (46.5) (-2000)  Open: -20.5 | 46.5
Cincinnati 34 - Bowling Green: 20

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
CIN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Cincinnati -30.5  (SP+ CIN -17)

Projected Score: BGSU: 9 - CIN: 40 (49)
CIN Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 162 miles
Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.053.0W 26 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.546.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.051.5W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+26.550.5L 17 - 40OY
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+7.549.5L 20 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.545.5W 28 - 23OY
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.043.5L 6 - 27UN
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-7.547.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.544.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.049.5L 21 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-2.547.5L 16 - 19UN
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.044.5W 45 - 14OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)20.541% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)24.339% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)30.344% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)25.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1320.52442.6%3.840.8183411342074.447%53%41%44%18%.21
CIN Defense1225.619.642.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1324.32937.6%3.471 - - - - - 50%49%39%37%16%.13
CIN Offense1230.334.444.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1329:2118.237%59%4.841.10.814.92.2229.2
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1347% (92)41% (99)30.6133.54.420 (67).14 (64)3.01 (74)78% (34)12% (118)1.08 (30)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1350% (66)39% (29) - - - - .17 (94)3.28 (109)80% (113)10% (75)1.1 (116)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1353% (42)44% (38)18.728.4207.37.311.116 (87)6 (10).28 (53)1.4 (127)32% (86)32% (67).29 (85)5% (53)1.8 (128)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1349% (66)37% (20) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (19)1.6 (65)34% (31)24% (3).15 (9)6% (69)2 (46)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -22.24  #133
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 0.09  #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 22.33  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6  #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -22.24   Cincinnati: 12.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -12.6   Cincinnati: 4.5




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 12.92  #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32  #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 40
Bowling Green 9


Projected Total Points: 49
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Cincinnati34Bowling Green20Cincinnati -21.5Bowling Green46.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati101 Overs
Bowling Green010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#133) BGSU at (#17) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSUCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #133 #17
SP+SP+ #113 #56
Perf GradeGrade #102 #34
OffenseOff #104 #20
DefenseDef #88 #78
Spec TeamsST #77 #66
TalentTal #112 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Bowling Green Notes
(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #78
SuccessSuc #68 #76
ExplosiveExp #75 #75
PPAPPA #53 #75
PowerPwr #133 #28
SP+SP+ #128 #67
Pts POPPO #77 #40
HavocHav #104 #67
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #101 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #99 #94
Run ExplRExp #30 #49
PPAExp #64 #77
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #74 #98
Stuff RateStuff #124 #56
TackleTak -  #35
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #131 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #43
Pass ExplPExl #127 #108
PPAExp #53 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #86 #130
F7 HavocF7 #118 #51
DB HavocDB #53 #87
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBGSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #20 #88
SuccessSuc #43 #15
ExplosiveExp #79 #98
PPAPPA #59 #43
PowerPwr #19 #125
SP+SP+ #50 #83
Pts POPPO #118 #32
HavocHav #69 #73
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffBGSU Def
Run GameRun #30 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #29
Run ExplRExp #34 #116
PPAExp #59 #94
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #109
Stuff RateStuff #105 #103
TackleTak -  #62
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePass #12 #103
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #20
Pass ExplPExl #121 #65
PPAExp #63 #19
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #47
F7 HavocF7 #93 #75
DB HavocDB #33 #69
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Cincinnati -21.5 (46.5)
Cincinnati won vs Bowling Green this year (34-20)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Bowling Green last year (34-20)

  
BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)9415162%882455.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)336650%473547.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)10849354.624
Cameron Pettaway7236505.134
Chris McMillian8434234.133
Kaderris Roberts4821504.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)37466212.638
RJ Garcia II27283010.528
Finn Hogan13183014.124
Jacob Harris1918259.638

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Steve Morrison (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)11918341
Kal-El Pascal804005
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)576211
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)561107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George (Tr)265420
Gideon Lampron (Tr)11918341
David Afogho374361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)2200013
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)561107
Kal-El Pascal804005

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg142167%134216.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey2719417.236
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)506601213.288
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jonathan Thompson679120
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt266400
Jack Dingle513230
Montay Weedon273200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Daniel James150004