Navy at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen vs Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Friday, January 2nd 2026 (4:30 PM EST)
Navy -4.0 (54.5) (-180)  Open: -1.5 | 55.5
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN  (AutoZone Liberty Bowl)

 
Midshipmen (10 - 2) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Cincinnati -13  (SP+ CIN -2)

Projected Score: NAVY: 21 - CIN: 34 (54)
NAVY Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 430 miles
Bearcats (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-4.054.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+4.054.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#16 (.31)49% (11)31.251% (5)3.44 (5)29043% (57)1324.13 (36)#115 (.23)42% (71)2640% (45)45% (111)4.24 (121)51.51.11.1
CIN#11 (.32)48% (16)31.851% (8)3.6 (1)18047% (24)2414.66 (12)#105 (.21)45% (110)24.846% (114)43% (86)3.81 (84)64.210.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1231.225.848.8%4.131.1204222901325.975%23%51%43%10%.31
CIN Defense1224.819.644.7%3.810.8 - - - - - 52%47%46%43%13%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense122630.241.9%4.241.1 - - - - - 51%47%40%45%13%.23
CIN Offense1231.834.448.1%4.66120422180241648%50%51%47%12%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1232:3120.351%67%651.51.11.14.52.2031.4
Cincinnati1224:0620.340%73%6.964.210.84.51.8129.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1275% (3)51% (5)49.3289.85.939 (4).3 (7)3.44 (5)80% (17)7% (18)1.09 (24)
CIN Defense1252% (101)46% (114) - - - - .17 (107)3.26 (124)77% (111)8% (113)0.93 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1251% (84)40% (45) - - - - .12 (87)2.9 (74)76% (102)8% (111)1.02 (95)
CIN Offense1248% (81)51% (8)30.3180.4620 (40).26 (9)3.6 (1)76% (43)6% (6)1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1223% (134)43% (57)8.113.9131.89.516.310 (106)6 (20).45 (13)2 (3)24% (2)33% (40).52 (9)2% (2)2.4 (2)
CIN Defense1247% (48)43% (86) - - - - - - 2 (132).26 (76)1.5 (36)29% (113)33% (108).34 (93)5% (122)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1247% (49)45% (111) - - - - - - 6 (100).41 (127)1.6 (104)31% (88)31% (81).31 (73)4% (127)2 (52)
CIN Offense1250% (64)47% (24)17.728.6241.38.413.728 (6)5 (3).46 (11)1.6 (41)29% (29)34% (27).45 (19)6% (54)2.2 (22)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.29  #92
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.11  #51
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #27
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #89

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.29   Cincinnati: 11.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 4.1   Cincinnati: 6.3




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 11.9  #26
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 23.54  #11
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 6.04  #52
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.3  #49
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #39
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2  #64

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 34
Navy 21


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Navy 27
Cincinnati 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 31
Navy 25

Total Points: 56
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202211/05Cincinnati20Navy10Cincinnati -18.5Navy43.5Under
202110/23Navy20Cincinnati27Cincinnati -28.5Navy49.5Under
201811/03Cincinnati42Navy0Cincinnati -13Cincinnati47.0Under
201709/23Navy42Cincinnati32Navy -8.5Navy52.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati311 Overs
Navy133 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 13 - 12 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 31 - 30 - 11 - 2

Navy Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Forces Bowl Navy vs Oklahoma-1.044.0W 21 - 20
2019N/A Navy vs Kansas State-2.053.5W 20 - 17
Cincinnati Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Fenway Bowl Cincinnati vs Louisville+2.538.5L 7 - 24
2021CFP Semifinal Cincinnati vs Alabama+13.057.5L 6 - 27
2020Peach Bowl Cincinnati vs Georgia+7.050.0L 21 - 24
2019Birmingham Bowl Cincinnati vs Boston College-8.053.0W 38 - 6
  
(#92) NAVY at (#26) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYCIN
Power RatePwr #92 #26
SP+SP+ #57 #49
Perf GradeGrade #66 #31
OffenseOff #28 #12
DefenseDef #121 #77
Spec TeamsST #71 #88
TalentTal #136 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
Perf GradePerf #28 #77
SuccessSuc #11 #110
ExplosiveExp #54 #29
PPAPPA #16 #105
PowerPwr #51 #52
SP+SP+ #27 #64
Pts POPPO #36 #84
HavocHav #4 #121
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #17 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #114
Run ExplRExp #24 #54
PPAExp #7 #107
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #124
Stuff RateStuff #1 #121
TackleTak -  #44
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #33 #64
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #86
Pass ExplPExl #3 #36
PPAExp #13 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #113 #133
F7 HavocF7 #18 #113
DB HavocDB #2 #122
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #121
SuccessSuc #16 #71
ExplosiveExp #44 #110
PPAPPA #11 #115
PowerPwr #11 #125
SP+SP+ #39 #89
Pts POPPO #12 #121
HavocHav #14 #125
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #20 #119
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #45
Run ExplRExp #52 #95
PPAExp #9 #87
Run BlockR Blk #9 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #74
Stuff RateStuff #36 #83
TackleTak -  #134
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #8 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #111
Pass ExplPExl #41 #104
PPAExp #11 #127
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #73
F7 HavocF7 #6 #111
DB HavocDB #54 #127
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 52° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.035
Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Navy in 2022 (20-10)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8814461%147210610.2
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2081147155.559
Alex Tecza14282295.876
Eli Heidenreich6743736.525
Brandon Chatman5541537.536
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich46877519.182
Brandon Chatman1615809.927
Cody Howard4128132.065
Alex Tecza12123110.329

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker937230
Giuseppe Sessi761000
Luke Pirris757443
Coleman Cauley683020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson588670
Julian Moutome375423
Adam Klenk305451
Luke Pirris757443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris757443

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey1611617.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)486511113.688
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Jonathan Thompson598120
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt246400
Jack Dingle453230
Montay Weedon243200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Jiquan Sanks452004