Navy at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo   Navy Midshipmen vs Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Friday, January 2nd 2026 (4:30 PM EST)
Navy -7.5 (57.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Navy 35 - Cincinnati: 13  (AutoZone Liberty Bowl)

 
Midshipmen (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Cincinnati -11  (SP+ NAVY -1.5)

Projected Score: NAVY: 23 - CIN: 34 (57)
NAVY Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 788 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-7.557.5W 35 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.546% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)2546% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)30.344% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)25.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1331.525.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31
CIN Defense1225.619.642.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense132530.241.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
CIN Offense1230.334.444.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.95  #86
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.60  #64
Navy's Defense Rating: 20.55  #113
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.95   Cincinnati: 10.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2   Cincinnati: 4.5




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 10.42  #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32  #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 34
Navy 23


Projected Total Points: 57
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202501/02Cincinnati13Navy35Navy -7.5Navy57.5Under
202211/05Cincinnati20Navy10Cincinnati -18.5Navy43.5Under
202110/23Navy20Cincinnati27Cincinnati -28.5Navy49.5Under
201811/03Cincinnati42Navy0Cincinnati -13Cincinnati47.0Under
201709/23Navy42Cincinnati32Navy -8.5Navy52.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati311 Overs
Navy244 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 23 - 22 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 32 - 31 - 11 - 2

Navy Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Liberty Bowl Navy vs Cincinnati-7.557.5W 35 - 13
2024Forces Bowl Navy vs Oklahoma-1.044.0W 21 - 20
2019N/A Navy vs Kansas State-2.053.5W 20 - 17
Cincinnati Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Liberty Bowl Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35
2022Fenway Bowl Cincinnati vs Louisville+2.538.5L 7 - 24
2021CFP Semifinal Cincinnati vs Alabama+13.057.5L 6 - 27
2020Peach Bowl Cincinnati vs Georgia+7.050.0L 21 - 24
2019Birmingham Bowl Cincinnati vs Boston College-8.053.0W 38 - 6
  
(#86) NAVY at (#17) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #86 #17
SP+SP+ #46 #56
Perf GradeGrade #62 #34
OffenseOff #29 #20
DefenseDef #111 #78
Spec TeamsST #82 #66
TalentTal #136 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #78
SuccessSuc #51 #76
ExplosiveExp #11 #75
PPAPPA #12 #75
PowerPwr #64 #28
SP+SP+ #26 #67
Pts POPPO #26 #40
HavocHav #6 #67
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #25 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #94
Run ExplRExp #7 #49
PPAExp #10 #77
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #98
Stuff RateStuff #14 #56
TackleTak -  #35
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #34 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #43
Pass ExplPExl #3 #108
PPAExp #15 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #130
F7 HavocF7 #28 #51
DB HavocDB #4 #87
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #20 #111
SuccessSuc #43 #61
ExplosiveExp #79 #28
PPAPPA #59 #28
PowerPwr #19 #113
SP+SP+ #50 #72
Pts POPPO #118 #35
HavocHav #69 #104
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #30 #107
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #95
Run ExplRExp #34 #39
PPAExp #59 #89
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #107
Stuff RateStuff #105 #122
TackleTak -  #133
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #12 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #24
Pass ExplPExl #121 #51
PPAExp #63 #8
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #55
F7 HavocF7 #93 #101
DB HavocDB #33 #89
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Navy 7.5 (57.5)
Navy won at Cincinnati this year (35-13)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Cincinnati last year (35-13)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath9715961%15801269.9
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2241200165.459
Alex Tecza158902105.776
Eli Heidenreich7749936.525
Brandon Chatman5743137.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich51941618.582
Brandon Chatman1715909.427
Luke Hutchison5134326.863
Cody Howard4128132.065

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Giuseppe Sessi811000
Luke Pirris787443
Coleman Cauley783030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson648670
Julian Moutome428423
Adam Klenk335451
Luke Pirris787443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris787443

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg142167%134216.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey2719417.236
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)506601213.288
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jonathan Thompson679120
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt266400
Jack Dingle513230
Montay Weedon273200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Daniel James150004