Texas Tech at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo (#13)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -7.5 (51.5) (-275)  Open: -4.5 | 60.5
Texas Tech 43 - Kansas State: 20  (Big 12)

 
Red Raiders (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (37 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
TTU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -18.5  (SP+ TTU -23.5)

Projected Score: TTU: 36 - KSU: 17 (53)
TTU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TTU Travel: 486 miles
Wildcats (6 - 6) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#82)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.563.5W 67 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.560.0W 62 - 14ON
Sat 9/13 Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.561.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Texas Tech at Utah+3.558.5W 34 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas Tech at Houston-13.551.5W 35 - 11UY
Sat 10/11 Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.558.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.552.5L 22 - 26UN
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.556.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.551.5W 43 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 Texas Tech vs BYU-13.550.5W 29 - 7UY
Sat 11/15 Texas Tech vs UCF-24.548.5W 48 - 9OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.553.5W 49 - 0UY
Sat 12/6 Texas Tech vs BYU-12.550.5W 34 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.550.5L 0 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+3.555.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.551.5L 20 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.550.5W 14 - 6UN
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+18.552.5L 47 - 51OY
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-16.550.5W 24 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#22 (.27)44% (49)39.444% (59)2.9 (77)17845% (38)2684.15 (34)#1 (-.09)30% (1)11.331% (3)30% (2)2.48 (5)53.112.2
KSU#46 (.2)41% (92)29.441% (94)2.82 (96)17241% (82)1984.15 (33)#57 (.13)39% (44)26.741% (61)38% (35)3.45 (52)38.31.32.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense1439.436.644.2%4.151224461782684.847%52%44%45%15%.27
KSU Defense1226.727.339.5%3.452.2 - - - - - 52%47%41%38%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense1411.313.430.1%2.482.2 - - - - - 41%57%31%30%24%-.09
KSU Offense1229.429.740.8%4.151.3173711721985.251%47%41%41%18%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech1428:352250%58%6.453.112.26.92.8237
Kansas State1229:0017.237%56%4.138.31.32.262.3230.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense1447% (93)44% (59)37178.44.830 (26).19 (35)2.9 (77)82% (6)9% (45)1.07 (31)
KSU Defense1252% (94)41% (61) - - - - .12 (79)2.73 (38)70% (55)10% (49)1.12 (127)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense1441% (1)31% (3) - - - - -.12 (1)2.01 (1)62% (11)15% (4)0.88 (27)
KSU Offense1251% (51)41% (94)33.2172.35.223 (88).18 (41)2.82 (96)67% (101)11% (115)1.2 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense1452% (40)45% (38)21.432.4267.98.312.533 (5)8 (88).38 (29)1.6 (38)33% (94)33% (33).42 (29)6% (78)2.2 (24)
KSU Defense1247% (53)38% (35) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (31)1.6 (87)33% (38)28% (52).24 (51)7% (37)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense1457% (135)30% (2) - - - - - - 16 (22)-.02 (3)1.4 (9)40% (1)21% (2).06 (4)9% (8)1.8 (16)
KSU Offense1247% (86)41% (82)1728.5198.3711.718 (42)7 (20).25 (66)1.6 (39)34% (120)31% (66).28 (79)7% (91)1.8 (118)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 26.25  #9
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.67  #36
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -11.15  #3
2025 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20%  #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.9  #3
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #2
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3  #4

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 26.25   Kansas State: 9.795

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 29.9   Kansas State: 6.5




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 9.795  #49
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 11.85  #52
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.5  #47
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #45
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.6
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.4

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 36
Kansas State 17


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 28
Kansas State 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 33
Kansas State 21

Total Points: 54
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Kansas State20Texas Tech43Texas Tech -7.5Texas Tech51.5Over
202310/14Texas Tech21Kansas State38Texas Tech -1Kansas State57.0Over
202210/01Kansas State37Texas Tech28Kansas State -7.5Kansas State56.0Over
202110/23Texas Tech24Kansas State25Kansas State -1NA60.5Under
202010/03Kansas State31Texas Tech21Texas Tech -1.5Kansas State61.5Under
201911/23Texas Tech27Kansas State30Texas Tech -1Kansas State58.0Under
201811/17Kansas State21Texas Tech6Texas Tech -6.5Kansas State55.0Under
201711/04Texas Tech35Kansas State42Texas Tech -3.5Kansas State63.0Over
201610/08Kansas State44Texas Tech38Kansas State -9Texas Tech67.5Over
201511/14Texas Tech59Kansas State44Texas Tech -5.5Texas Tech67.0Over
201410/04Kansas State45Texas Tech13Kansas State -12.5Kansas State0
201311/09Texas Tech26Kansas State49Texas Tech -4Kansas State0
201210/27Kansas State55Texas Tech24
201110/15Texas Tech34Kansas State41
200910/10Texas Tech66Kansas State14
200810/04Kansas State28Texas Tech58
200510/15Texas Tech59Kansas State20
200410/30Kansas State25Texas Tech35
200110/13Texas Tech38Kansas State19
200010/20Kansas State28Texas Tech23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State1386 Overs
Texas Tech734 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 95 - 63 - 52 - 1
Road Teams9 - 116 - 51 - 25 - 3

(#9) TTU at (#49) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUKSU
Power RatePwr #9 #49
SP+SP+ #3 #47
Perf GradeGrade #3 #67
OffenseOff #12 #67
DefenseDef #1 #84
Spec TeamsST #3 #14
TalentTal #28 #46
Blue ChipsBC% #26 #56
Texas Tech Notes
(10/27) QB Morton cleared to play vs Kansas State
(10/26) QB2 Hammond out for the season (tore ACL)
(10/22) DT Gil Howard out until postseason?
(10/18) Pass Def torched by ASU, Off only 276 yds w/o Morton
(10/18) QB Hammond was bad, Run Off bad vs ASU.
(9/23) QB Will Hammond looked better than Morton
(9/22) Has 3 guys in top 15 in QB hurries thru 4 games
(9/20) Class of B12, killed Utah, Def best in conference
(8/18) #1 RB Q Joyner torn ACL, out for the season
(6/14) WR #1 Douglas, 2 Eakin, 3 Virgil missed spring
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
Texas Tech Injury Report
Kansas State Notes
(12/11) OC Matt Wells was a disaster hire for K St
(12/3) HC Klieman retiring. A&M OC Colin Klen new HC
(11/24) RB Joe Jackson torched Utah for 293 yds, still lost
(10/22) RB Dylan Edwards out again vs Kansas, shocker...
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
Kansas State Injury Report
Texas Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffKSU Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #84
SuccessSuc #49 #44
ExplosiveExp #18 #113
PPAPPA #22 #57
PowerPwr #36 #39
SP+SP+ #2 #58
Pts POPPO #34 #52
HavocHav #58 #48
Texas Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #13 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #59 #61
Run ExplRExp #31 #127
PPAExp #35 #79
Run BlockR Blk #45 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #38
Stuff RateStuff #53 #56
TackleTak -  #103
Texas Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #35
Pass ExplPExl #38 #87
PPAExp #29 #31
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #100
F7 HavocF7 #45 #49
DB HavocDB #78 #37
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKSU OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #1
SuccessSuc #92 #1
ExplosiveExp #8 #14
PPAPPA #46 #1
PowerPwr #52 #3
SP+SP+ #45 #4
Pts POPPO #33 #5
HavocHav #109 #2
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #102 #1
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #3
Run ExplRExp #3 #27
PPAExp #41 #1
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #96 #1
Stuff RateStuff #118 #11
TackleTak -  #2
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKSU OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #62 #1
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #2
Pass ExplPExl #39 #9
PPAExp #66 #3
Pass Block/RushP Blk #62 #2
F7 HavocF7 #115 #4
DB HavocDB #91 #8
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 50°
Rematch from Week 10
Texas Tech 7.5 (51.5)
Texas Tech won at Kansas State this year (43-20)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat Texas Tech in 2023 (38-21)
Kansas State beat Texas Tech in 2022 (37-28)

  
TTU's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton20130167%26432248.8
Will Hammond6810863%668736.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Dickey2001109145.571
J'Koby Williams14178565.643
Will Hammond4329957.064
Adam Hill4524005.336
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Douglas53830715.761
Reginald Virgil55676612.342
Coy Eakin48642613.442
Terrance Carter (Tr)46552512.050

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez11110116
Ben Roberts723035
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)695106
John Curry684124
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Bailey (Tr)421814101
Romello Height (Tr)32109131
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)3710574
Lee Hunter (Tr)359330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez11110116
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)695106
Dontae Balfour (Tr)231005

KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson20434160%23801867.0
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson16991185.480
Avery Johnson10947784.458
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown41712517.478
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)47595312.738
Garrett Oakley38389610.235
Jerand Bradley (Tr)13184214.265

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desmond Purnell729464
Austin Romaine667172
VJ Payne593003
Zashon Rich5731010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Stufflebean225550
Ryan Davis146414
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Desmond Purnell729464
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich5731010
Desmond Purnell729464
Donovan McIntosh330004