Hawai'i at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -2.5 (53.5) (-135)  Open: -1.5
Hawai'i 31 - Colorado State: 19  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (6 - 3) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (30 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#58)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Wind: 13.7 MPH
CSU 2nd straight Home Game
CSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -4  (SP+ HAW -6)

Projected Score: HAW: 25 - CSU: 29 (54)
CSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3340 miles, 3 hrs behind
Rams (2 - 6) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 27 (22 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.6 - 8.4 (#119)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.547.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+6.5
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+4.561.5
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+5
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+12
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#74 (.17)41% (90)29.738% (113)2.35 (115)10543% (64)3083.68 (88)#88 (.18)40% (51)25.743% (75)38% (34)3.83 (83)61.21.60.9
CSU#73 (.17)43% (69)19.148% (19)3.2 (21)14237% (112)1883.88 (67)#93 (.18)43% (88)27.142% (72)44% (103)3.65 (65)63.61.41.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense929.729.841%3.681.6224121053083.835%64%38%43%14%.17
CSU Defense827.121.243.1%3.651.3 - - - - - 52%47%42%44%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense925.734.840.1%3.830.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%38%17%.18
CSU Offense819.121.642.7%3.881.4193291421884.151%48%48%37%19%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i932:5321.846%64%7.161.21.60.94.92.3129.7
Colorado State827:3318.935%48%6.663.61.41.34.11.1125.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense935% (136)38% (113)27.6104.73.87 (122)- (121)2.35 (115)67% (96)8% (22)0.9 (98)
CSU Defense852% (92)42% (72) - - - - .07 (60)2.96 (97)74% (91)7% (124)0.91 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense948% (42)43% (75) - - - - .11 (91)3.18 (119)81% (126)10% (57)1.05 (107)
CSU Offense851% (59)48% (19)34.8141.54.111 (70).17 (36)3.2 (21)66% (112)12% (125)0.92 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense964% (1)43% (64)29.145.3307.66.810.620 (14)9 (127).28 (64)1.5 (69)34% (117)34% (44).37 (51)6% (81)2.1 (33)
CSU Defense847% (47)44% (103) - - - - - - 7 (31).32 (107)1.7 (116)30% (105)31% (96).28 (70)8% (11)2 (81)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense951% (95)38% (34) - - - - - - 5 (55).27 (89)1.7 (117)33% (39)31% (84).46 (127)7% (35)2.3 (133)
CSU Offense848% (79)37% (112)17.329.5187.56.410.98 (103)5 (7).21 (85)1.6 (36)35% (122)30% (72).34 (60)7% (106)2.1 (28)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -11.81  #118
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.32  #119
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 13.13  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #89
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #89
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #85

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -11.81   Colorado State: -4.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.1   Colorado State: -11.3




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.48  #81
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 10.25  #58
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 12.91  #101
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.6 - 8.4
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3  #111
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #103

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.8

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado State 29
Hawai'i 25


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 31
Colorado State 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 27
Colorado State 25

Total Points: 52
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.6
Defense: 27.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Colorado State19Hawai'i31Colorado State -2.5Hawai'i53.5Under
202311/25Hawai'i27Colorado State24Colorado State -6Hawai'i54.0Under
202210/22Colorado State17Hawai'i13Colorado State -6Hawai'i46.0Under
202111/20Hawai'i50Colorado State45Colorado State -3Hawai'i54.0Over
201808/25Colorado State34Hawai'i43Colorado State -17Hawai'i58.0Over
201709/30Hawai'i21Colorado State51Colorado State -7Colorado State66.0Over
201411/08Colorado State49Hawai'i22Colorado State -17Colorado State0
201310/27Hawai'i28Colorado State35Colorado State -5Colorado State0
201210/27Colorado State42Hawai'i27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State533 Overs
Hawai'i453 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 43 - 51 - 32 - 2
Road Teams4 - 55 - 32 - 23 - 1

(#118) HAW at (#81) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWCSU
Power RatePwr #118 #81
SP+SP+ #89 #111
Perf GradeGrade #100 #134
OffenseOff #115 #111
DefenseDef #76 #135
Spec TeamsST #66 #133
TalentTal #125 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Colorado State Notes
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
(8/1) RB Marshall OK LY, passed by L Avant in spring
Colorado State Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #135
SuccessSuc #90 #88
ExplosiveExp #28 #87
PPAPPA #74 #93
PowerPwr #119 #101
SP+SP+ #89 #103
Pts POPPO #88 #65
HavocHav #44 #80
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #127 #135
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #72
Run ExplRExp #98 #52
PPAExp #121 #60
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #115 #97
Stuff RateStuff #60 #50
TackleTak -  #86
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #70 #91
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #103
Pass ExplPExl #69 #116
PPAExp #64 #107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #107 #134
F7 HavocF7 #22 #124
DB HavocDB #81 #11
Colorado State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatCSU OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #111 #76
SuccessSuc #69 #51
ExplosiveExp #90 #114
PPAPPA #73 #88
PowerPwr #58 #102
SP+SP+ #110 #85
Pts POPPO #67 #83
HavocHav #130 #47
Colorado State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
CSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #38 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #19 #75
Run ExplRExp #86 #107
PPAExp #36 #91
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #119
Stuff RateStuff #37 #102
TackleTak -  #115
Colorado State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatCSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #130 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #112 #34
Pass ExplPExl #36 #117
PPAExp #85 #89
Pass Block/RushP Blk #119 #23
F7 HavocF7 #125 #57
DB HavocDB #106 #35
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 51° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Colorado State -2.5 (53.5)
Hawai'i won at Colorado State this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Colorado State in 2023 (27-24)
Colorado State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (17-13)

  
HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado19930266%21241567.0
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims9443934.743
Cam Barfield4420534.735
Micah Alejado587811.330
Luke Weaver277302.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)35601717.275
Pofele Ashlock55598610.947
Brandon White (Tr)29312110.846
Landon Sims3023127.728

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis483040
Peter Manuma471115
Elijah Palmer405006
Jalen Smith391001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III175530
De'jon Benton (Tr)237450
Qwyn Williams (Tr)225310
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina265230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer405006
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen270005
Virdel Edwards251005

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau7913061%840636.5
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi448254%488126.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree8945225.131
Lloyd Avant (Tr)6134235.623
Justin Marshall3322516.873
Javion Kinnard115204.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Armani Winfield20268213.449
Tommy Maher21228010.935
Tay Lanier13169013.039
Rocky Beers (Tr)11124311.330

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1034102
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)465111
Lemondre Joe (Tr)3943411
Robert Edmonson364150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)3943411
Owen Long1034102
Robert Edmonson364150
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)465111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)3943411
Jahari Rogers (Tr)233117
C.J. Blocker (Tr)150013