Hawai'i at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -2.5 (53.5) (-135)  Open: -1.5
Hawai'i 31 - Colorado State: 19  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Wind: 13.7 MPH
CSU 2nd straight Home Game
CSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -6.5  (SP+ HAW -16.5)

Projected Score: HAW: 30 - CSU: 24 (54)
CSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3340 miles, 3 hrs behind
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
CSU#96 (.13)40% (98)18.544% (65)2.97 (63)10838% (111)2163.52 (86)#116 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (107)46% (117)4.03 (103)56.31.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense132925.841.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18
CSU Defense1230.827.145.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense1324.135.441.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
CSU Offense1218.519.940.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (107) - - - - .17 (105)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (129)0.94 (60)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (65)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (79)2.97 (63)59% (132)12% (122)0.9 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (117) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (126).34 (95)6% (59)1.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
CSU Offense1254% (28)38% (111)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (91)35% (127)28% (87).25 (91)7% (110)2 (85)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -9.82   Colorado State: -10.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 0.9   Colorado State: -15.6




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.84  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 30
Colorado State 24


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 31
Colorado State 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 28
Colorado State 24

Total Points: 52
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Colorado State19Hawai'i31Colorado State -2.5Hawai'i53.5Under
202311/25Hawai'i27Colorado State24Colorado State -6Hawai'i54.0Under
202210/22Colorado State17Hawai'i13Colorado State -6Hawai'i46.0Under
202111/20Hawai'i50Colorado State45Colorado State -3Hawai'i54.0Over
201808/25Colorado State34Hawai'i43Colorado State -17Hawai'i58.0Over
201709/30Hawai'i21Colorado State51Colorado State -7Colorado State66.0Over
201411/08Colorado State49Hawai'i22Colorado State -17Colorado State0
201310/27Hawai'i28Colorado State35Colorado State -5Colorado State0
201210/27Colorado State42Hawai'i27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State533 Overs
Hawai'i453 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 43 - 51 - 32 - 2
Road Teams4 - 55 - 32 - 23 - 1

(#108) HAW at (#113) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWCSU
Power RatePwr #108 #113
SP+SP+ #68 #125
Perf GradeGrade #100 #135
OffenseOff #107 #124
DefenseDef #96 #136
Spec TeamsST #71 #130
TalentTal #125 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #136
SuccessSuc #88 #118
ExplosiveExp #29 #78
PPAPPA #62 #116
PowerPwr #118 #118
SP+SP+ #75 #106
Pts POPPO #61 #103
HavocHav #16 #116
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #111 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #107
Run ExplRExp #90 #60
PPAExp #118 #105
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #123
Stuff RateStuff #98 #122
TackleTak -  #66
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #117
Pass ExplPExl #61 #123
PPAExp #47 #119
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #135
F7 HavocF7 #13 #129
DB HavocDB #39 #59
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #96
SuccessSuc #98 #67
ExplosiveExp #98 #87
PPAPPA #96 #72
PowerPwr #85 #87
SP+SP+ #121 #65
Pts POPPO #86 #41
HavocHav #125 #63
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #89 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #74
Run ExplRExp #94 #76
PPAExp #79 #66
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #63 #119
Stuff RateStuff #76 #117
TackleTak -  #128
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #124 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #58
Pass ExplPExl #91 #77
PPAExp #96 #71
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #29
F7 HavocF7 #122 #82
DB HavocDB #110 #41
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 51° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Colorado State -2.5 (53.5)
Hawai'i won at Colorado State this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Colorado State in 2023 (27-24)
Colorado State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (17-13)

  
HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205