Hawai'i at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Canvas Stadium - Fort Collins, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (3 - 1) (2 - 2 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 21 (6 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
CSU 2nd straight Home Game
CSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -4   (SP+ HAW -2)

Projected Score: HAW: 20 - CSU: 24 (44)
CSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3340 miles, 4 hrs behind
Rams (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (21 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+3.047.5
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State-6
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.5
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Hawai'i at UNLV+10
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.559.5
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-3
Sat 10/4 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/11 Colorado State vs Fresno State-1.5
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-4
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+3.5
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico-5
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+14.5
Sat 11/29 Colorado State vs Air Force-8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#114 (.07)40% (97)22.341% (92)2.82 (85)9940% (94)2443.26 (106)#50 (.07)35% (38)20.837% (58)34% (37)3.15 (56)86.520.8
CSU#87 (.15)47% (47)2157% (15)3.14 (51)15836% (110)1614.2 (57)#70 (.14)43% (94)27.543% (88)44% (97)3.93 (86)5731.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense422.3640%3.26221343992443.436%64%41%40%17%.07
CSU Defense227.51743.1%3.931.5 - - - - - 60%40%43%44%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense420.84035.2%3.150.8 - - - - - 47%52%37%34%16%.07
CSU Offense2212146.6%4.23223181581614.353%45%57%36%18%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i431:3920.837%71%8.586.520.84.82.3128.5
Colorado State226:562235%50%7.55731.55.51.5029.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense436% (131)41% (92)28.8993.40 (135)-.12 (130)2.82 (85)67% (86)9% (80)0.64 (130)
CSU Defense260% (124)43% (88) - - - - .05 (65)2.45 (40)73% (77)10% (78)0.98 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense447% (50)37% (58) - - - - .1 (89)3.07 (100)86% (112)9% (90)1.11 (100)
CSU Offense253% (51)57% (15)36.5157.54.35 (62).12 (78)3.14 (51)75% (52)12% (111)0.73 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense464% (4)40% (94)26.843.8244.35.69.17 (23)4 (121).18 (97)1.4 (109)35% (110)29% (87).3 (77)8% (122)2 (64)
CSU Defense240% (13)44% (97) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (87)1.6 (92)29% (106)28% (58).17 (46)7% (53)2.4 (123)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense452% (85)34% (37) - - - - - - 3 (28).08 (33)1.2 (9)35% (49)23% (36).17 (50)8% (30)1.9 (54)
CSU Offense245% (89)36% (110)15.529.5160.55.410.41 (123)2 (60).27 (73)1.7 (31)33% (94)28% (94).36 (60)7% (111)2.6 (7)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -7.29 #100
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -7.29   Colorado State: -4.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.3   Colorado State: -12.3




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.74 #84
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 6
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 40

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado State 24
Hawai'i 20


Total Points: 44

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 21 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25Hawai'i27Colorado State24Hawai'iColorado State -6Hawai'i54.0Under
202210/22Colorado State17Hawai'i13Colorado StateColorado State -6Hawai'i46.0Under
202111/20Hawai'i50Colorado State45Hawai'iColorado State -3Hawai'i54.0Over
201808/25Colorado State34Hawai'i43Hawai'iColorado State -17Hawai'i58.0Over
201709/30Hawai'i21Colorado State51Colorado StateColorado State -7Colorado State66.0Over
201411/08Colorado State49Hawai'i22Colorado StateColorado State -17Colorado State0
201310/27Hawai'i28Colorado State35Colorado StateColorado State -5Colorado State0
201210/27Colorado State42Hawai'i27Colorado State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State533 Overs
Hawai'i342 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 41 - 22 - 2
Road Teams3 - 54 - 32 - 22 - 1

(#100) Hawai'i Info
Power Rating: -7.29 #100
Offense Rating: 2.77 #117
Defense Rating: 10.06 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #105
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #128
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.26 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.15 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Hawai'i has lost 3 straight
Hawai'i has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Hawai'i Notes
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
(4/7) Def bad LY, returns some. 4 portal DL added
(4/7) Offense could jump TY, can Def improve?

Hawai'i Highlights
Hawai'i Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Hawai'i Secondary is very good (#30)
Hawai'i defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Hawai'i Deficiencies
Hawai'i has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Hawai'i Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Hawai'i Commits a Lot of Penalties (#136)
Hawai'i throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Hawai'i offense is not Explosive (#113)
Hawai'i offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#106)
Hawai'i Does Not Stuff Runs (#108)
Hawai'i has a bad defensive line (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCSUHAW
OverallOver#101#87
OffenseOff#63#107
DefenseDef#107#47
Special TeamsST#110#59
PassingPass#106#101
RushingRush#30#82
Run BlockRBLK#10#84
Pass BlockPBLK#42#102
Route RunningWR Rt#97#105
TacklingTkl#16#90
Run DefenseR Def#107#98
Pass Rush DefPRush#101#45
Coverage DefCov#97#4

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Colorado State in 2023 (27-24)
Colorado State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (17-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HAW | CSU
Depth Chart: HAW | CSU
Rosters: HAW | CSU
(#84) Colorado State Info
Power Rating: -4.74 #84
Offense Rating: 9.58 #83
Defense Rating: 11.77 #88
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #113
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113
Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.2 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Colorado State has lost 4 straight
Colorado State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Colorado State Notes
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
(8/1) RB Marshall OK LY, passed by L Avant in spring
(8/1) WR returns #2, 3 portal adds, TE big ?
(8/1) Def bad LY, replacing a ton. 10 portal adds
(8/1) New DC Summers (WKU), Takeaway king
(8/1) Direction of Offense a big ? under OC Mumme
(8/1) Too many ?s for me, lack identity w/o big WR
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, decent LY. No portal adds

Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State is Undefeated at Home

Colorado State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#28)

Colorado State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#20)

Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Colorado State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
Colorado State Can Not Run the Ball (#120)
Colorado State offense is not Explosive (#116)
Colorado State pass game is really bad (#110)
Colorado State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Colorado State does not Sack the QB (#112)


  
Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Micah Alejado457064%367215.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims3915403.919
Cam Barfield218904.213
Luke Weaver277302.713
Christian Vaughn32207.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock2623539.047
Landon Sims1815518.628
Karsyn Pupunu1311408.815
Brandon White (Tr)1211109.327

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Jalen Smith180001
Elijah Palmer173003
Jamih Otis170000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III93320
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina124220
Qwyn Williams (Tr)92200
Peter Manuma251114
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma251114
Elijah Palmer173003
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen110003

Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi305753%312125.5
Tay Lanier11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree2815015.420
Lloyd Avant (Tr)158025.320
Justin Marshall83704.67
Javion Kinnard222011.021
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaxxon Warren795113.627
Armani Winfield449012.317
Tommy Maher53807.615
Lavon Brown336012.016

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long241000
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)122001
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Robert Edmonson101100
Gabe Jones (Tr)31100
Owen Long241000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)112213
Jahari Rogers (Tr)60002
Drew Rodriguez10001