Youngstown State at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Youngstown State logo Youngstown State Penguins at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Michigan State -23.5 (55.5) (-2100)  Open: 0.0
Michigan State 41 - Youngstown State: 24

 
Penguins (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 41 (24 - 41 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Michigan State -5  (SP+ MSU -3)
MSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Youngstown State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Youngstown State at Michigan State+23.555.5L 24 - 41OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Youngstown State's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
YSU0%240%000%000%410%0%0000
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
YSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
YSU Offense124240%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MSU Defense1229.927.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
YSU Defense141410%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MSU Offense1224.624.841.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Youngstown State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
YSU Offense10%0%000000%0%0
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
YSU Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
YSU Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
YSU Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)

Youngstown State's Power Ratings
Youngstown State's Power Rating: NR
Youngstown State's Offense Rating: NR
Youngstown State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Youngstown State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Youngstown State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Youngstown State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Youngstown State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average MVFC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Youngstown State:    Michigan State: 5.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Youngstown State:    Michigan State: -3.3




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 5.155  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Youngstown State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 41 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Youngstown State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan State 30
Youngstown State 25

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan State 36
Youngstown State 18

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Michigan State 33
Youngstown State 26

Total Points: 59
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Michigan State41Youngstown State24Michigan State -23.5Youngstown State55.5Over
202109/11Michigan State42Youngstown State14Michigan State -28.5Youngstown State52.0Over
201309/14Michigan State55Youngstown State17Michigan State -27Michigan State0
201109/02Michigan State28Youngstown State6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State412 Overs
Youngstown State020 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 01 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 42 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#NR) YSU at (#46) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatYSUMSU
Power RatePwrNR #46
SP+SP+NR #84
Perf GradeGradeNR #94
OffenseOffNR #65
DefenseDefNR #107
Spec TeamsSTNR #134
TalentTalNR #30
Blue ChipsBC%NR #33
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Youngstown State on Offense
CategoryCat
YSU OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerfNR #107
SuccessSucNR #116
ExplosiveExpNR #26
PPAPPANR #103
PowerPwrNR #50
SP+SP+NR #85
Pts POPPONR #95
HavocHavNR #111
Youngstown State Run Game
CategoryCat
YSU OffMSU Def
Run GameRunNR #100
Run SuccessRSucNR #123
Run ExplRExpNR #44
PPAExpNR #101
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #65
Stuff RateStuffNR #104
TackleTak -  #51
Youngstown State Pass Game
CategoryCat
YSU OffMSU Def
Pass GamePassNR #85
Pass SuccessPSucNR #101
Pass ExplPExlNR #33
PPAExpNR #102
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #104
F7 HavocF7NR #97
DB HavocDBNR #115
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffYSU Def
Perf GradePerf #65NR
SuccessSuc #77NR
ExplosiveExp #96NR
PPAPPA #98NR
PowerPwr #45NR
SP+SP+ #74NR
Pts POPPO #64NR
HavocHav #115NR
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffYSU Def
Run GameRun #62NR
Run SuccessRSuc #83NR
Run ExplRExp #72NR
PPAExp #95NR
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128NR
Stuff RateStuff #133NR
TackleTak - NR
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffYSU Def
Pass GamePass #91NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #67NR
Pass ExplPExl #112NR
PPAExp #73NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121NR
F7 HavocF7 #132NR
DB HavocDB #24NR
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

YSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Michigan State -23.5 (55.5)
Michigan State won vs Youngstown State this year (41-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
YSU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Brungard27740369%32302638.0
Devin Sherwood88100%47005.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Brungard2421468276.178
Jaden Gilbert9667037.073
Ethan Wright4122215.419
Ky Wilson1910115.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Max Tomczak701021814.640
Ky Wilson64652610.262
Jaden Gilbert4241219.839
Mike Solomon20329216.548

View Youngstown State's Full Roster

YSU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Preston Zandier111000
Dayne Hodge (Tr)91000
Justin Wimpye70001
Carston Marshall62001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Preston Zandier111000
Dayne Hodge (Tr)91000
Justin Wimpye70001
Carston Marshall62001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Wimpye70001
Carston Marshall62001
Makai Shahid60001

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012