Western Michigan at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans

Friday, August 29th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Michigan State -18.5 (49.5) (-950) Open: -18.5 | 49.5
Michigan State 23 - Western Michigan: 6

Broncos (10 - 4) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Lance Taylor (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)

Our Line: Michigan State -13.5 (SP+ WMU -2)
Projected Score: WMU: 17 - MSU: 31 (48)
MSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
WMU Travel: 65 miles

Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Western Michigan at Michigan State	+18.5	49.5	L 6 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Michigan vs North Texas	+12.0	56.0	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Western Michigan at Illinois	+27.5	50.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/20	Western Michigan vs Toledo	+13.5	48.5	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Michigan vs Rhode Island	-7.5	45.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Western Michigan at Massachusetts	-12.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Western Michigan vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	W 42 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Western Michigan at Miami (OH)	+2.5	40.5	L 17 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/1	Western Michigan vs Central Michigan	-6.0	43.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/11	Western Michigan vs Ohio	-1.5	46.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Tue 11/18	Western Michigan at Northern Illinois	-7.0	39.5	W 35 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/25	Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	49.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 12/6	Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	44.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Fri 12/19	Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State	-3.0	47.0	W 41 - 6	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-18.5	49.5	W 23 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan State vs Boston College	-3.5	45.5	W 42 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-23.5	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/20	Michigan State at USC	+18.5	55.5	L 31 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan State at Nebraska	+12.5	48.5	L 27 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Michigan State vs UCLA	-7.0	51.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+26.5	49.5	L 13 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan State vs Michigan	+13.5	47.5	L 20 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Michigan State at Minnesota	+4.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan State vs Penn State	+7.0	48.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/22	Michigan State at Iowa	+17.5	43.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Michigan State vs Maryland	-4.0	49.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#43 (.24)	45% (33)	24.9	45% (59)	3.05 (62)	184	46% (27)	187	4.11 (49)	#122 (.29)	49% (128)	17.4	48% (115)	51% (132)	4.38 (119)	39.2	1	1.6
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	24.6	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	29.9	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	13	24.9	18.3	45.2%	4.11	1	19	371	184	187	5	55%	45%	45%	46%	15%	.24
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	13	17.4	21.7	49.1%	4.38	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	48%	51%	18%	.29
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	13	29:58	19.5	35%	59%	4.1	39.2	1	1.6	4.2	1.5	1	31.3
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	13	55% (35)	45% (59)	36.8	184.2	5	28 (25)	.18 (43)	3.05 (62)	75% (53)	10% (64)	1.07 (33)
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	13	56% (123)	48% (115)	-	-	-	-	.19 (105)	3.18 (96)	76% (84)	10% (66)	1.01 (81)
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	13	45% (100)	46% (27)	16.3	24.9	187	7.5	11.5	18 (68)	9 (48)	.32 (40)	1.5 (98)	28% (16)	31% (71)	.27 (91)	6% (59)	1.9 (108)
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	13	44% (12)	51% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (127)	1.5 (31)	27% (125)	33% (103)	.33 (81)	8% (19)	1.9 (39)
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -12.46 #110
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 3.31 #125
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.77 #86
2025 Talent Rating: 558.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 4.5
Western Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #78
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #105
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #42

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -12.46 Michigan State: 6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -1.4 Michigan State: -3.4

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.53 #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95 #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49 #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 31
Western Michigan 17

Projected Total Points: 48

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/29	Michigan State	23	Western Michigan	6	Michigan State -18.5	Western Michigan	49.5	Under
2022	09/02	Michigan State	35	Western Michigan	13	Michigan State -22	Push	54.5	Under
2019	09/07	Michigan State	51	Western Michigan	17	Michigan State -14.5	Michigan State	46.5	Over
2017	09/09	Michigan State	28	Western Michigan	14	Michigan State -7	Michigan State	51.5	Under
2015	09/04	Western Michigan	24	Michigan State	37	Michigan State -23.5	Western Michigan	55.0	Over
2013	08/30	Michigan State	26	Western Michigan	13	Michigan State -24	Western Michigan	0
2010	09/04	Michigan State	38	Western Michigan	14
2009	11/07	Michigan State	49	Western Michigan	14
2003	08/30	Michigan State	26	Western Michigan	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	9	2	2 Overs
Western Michigan	0	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 1	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 8	2 - 3	0 - 1	2 - 2

(#110) WMU at (#37) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WMU	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#110	#37
SP+SP+	#78	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#91
OffenseOff	#54	#61
DefenseDef	#46	#96
Spec TeamsST	#37	#133
TalentTal	#106	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#33

Western Michigan Notes(11/29) Beat EMU, will play Miami OH in MAC Championship
(11/20) Control MAC w/ W over N Ill. 361 rush, 32 pass!
(11/13) Great W over Ohio, leaders of the MAC now
(11/13) Def shut down Navarro, Run Off 210+. 5.0 ypc
(10/31) QB Lowry a weapon, JAG arm, only real rush threat
(10/31) Def meh vs Mia OH, all 400+ but good on 3rd D's
(10/22) DL is one of best in CFB, best in G5 statistically
(10/8) Def has improved a lot, red zone defense especially
(9/20) Off is terrible, esp Run Off. QB Lowry meh
(9/20) Huge win vs Toledo. Def held 5-18 3rd down, 3 TO
(8/30) QB B Jones starter, B Lowry is QB2, both bad
(8/30) Run game alarming bad vs Mich St, 1.2 ypc
Western Michigan Injury Report

Michigan State Notes(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report

Western Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#96
SuccessSuc	#33	#69
ExplosiveExp	#74	#110
PPAPPA	#43	#85
PowerPwr	#125	#35
SP+SP+	#105	#81
Pts POPPO	#49	#98
HavocHav	#55	#93

Western Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#42	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#25
Run ExplRExp	#33	#80
PPAExp	#43	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#33
TackleTak	-	#40

Western Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	#27	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#98	#101
PPAExp	#40	#111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#102
F7 HavocF7	#64	#64
DB HavocDB	#59	#121

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#46
SuccessSuc	#86	#128
ExplosiveExp	#118	#45
PPAPPA	#105	#122
PowerPwr	#28	#86
SP+SP+	#70	#42
Pts POPPO	#116	#119
HavocHav	#98	#44

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#78	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#115
Run ExplRExp	#126	#81
PPAExp	#116	#105
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#99
TackleTak	-	#93

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#132
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#31
PPAExp	#79	#127
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#121	#12
F7 HavocF7	#112	#66
DB HavocDB	#63	#19

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan State -18.5 (49.5)
Michigan State won vs Western Michigan this year (23-6)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Western Michigan last year (23-6)

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Broc Lowry	166	262	63%	1803	9	3	6.9
Brady Jones	19	40	48%	136	1	3	3.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Buckley	179	1003	9	5.6	67
Broc Lowry	203	963	14	4.7	37
Devin Miles	99	425	3	4.3	32
Ofa Mataele	57	252	3	4.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tailique Williams (Tr)	35	478	2	13.7	71
Baylin Brooks (Tr)	27	372	0	13.8	42
Aveion Chenault	23	277	2	12.0	45
Blake Bosma	27	251	1	9.3	24

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Chris O'Leary (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Camden	85	5	4	1	0
Sefa Saipaia Jr.	77	6	2	5	0
Tate Hallock	67	2	1	4	2
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)	61	2	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nadame Tucker (Tr)	55	22	15	16	1
Rodney McGraw	42	9	7	10	1
James Camden	85	5	4	1	0
Tyson Lee	15	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Franklin	53	6	2	1	10
Aaron Wofford	33	1	0	0	8
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)	61	2	1	0	4

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	128	203	63%	1392	10	3	6.9
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makhi Frazier	116	520	2	4.5	49
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)	72	428	2	5.9	85
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Aidan Chiles	81	227	6	2.8	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	59	662	6	11.2	48
Omari Kelly (Tr)	47	626	2	13.3	75
Jack Velling	36	359	3	10.0	28
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)	24	330	3	13.8	45

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Wayne Matthews III	73	5	0	0	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Alex VanSumeren	50	2	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Jalen Thompson	29	6	3	8	1
Quindarius Dunnigan	25	5	3	9	0
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)	49	5	1	0	6
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Chance Rucker	7	0	0	1	2