Boston College at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boston College logo Boston College Eagles at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan State -3.5 (45.5) (-150)  Open: -3.0 | 49.5
Michigan State 42 - Boston College: 40

 
Eagles (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 25 - 33 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
MSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Michigan State -8.5  (SP+ MSU -6)

Projected Score: BC: 21 - MSU: 29 (50)
MSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BC Travel: 678 miles
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Boston College vs Fordham-35.053.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 9/6 Boston College at Michigan State+3.545.5L 40 - 42OY
Sat 9/13 Boston College at Stanford-14.044.5L 20 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Boston College vs California-6.054.5L 24 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Boston College at Pittsburgh+6.554.5L 7 - 48ON
Sat 10/11 Boston College vs Clemson+14.054.5L 10 - 41UN
Sat 10/18 Boston College vs UConn+2.558.5L 23 - 38ON
Sat 10/25 Boston College at Louisville+25.554.5L 24 - 38OY
Sat 11/1 Boston College vs Notre Dame+31.555.5L 10 - 25UY
Sat 11/8 Boston College vs SMU+10.554.5L 13 - 45ON
Sat 11/15 Boston College vs Georgia Tech+16.561.5L 34 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Boston College at Syracuse-2.554.5W 34 - 12UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC#79 (.16)42% (65)25.442% (91)2.75 (107)10444% (50)2803.39 (98)#114 (.23)43% (83)32.844% (85)42% (72)3.82 (86)49.71.81
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC#89 (.16)41% (93)41% (96)2.87 (99)16441% (78)1764 (58)#56 (.15)42% (74)40% (40)44% (104)3.64 (51)401.21.8
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Offense1225.42542.4%3.391.8213841042803.340%58%42%44%17%.16
MSU Defense1229.927.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Defense1232.83442.6%3.821 - - - - - 50%47%44%42%12%.23
MSU Offense1224.624.841.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boston College1229:1620.839%52%5.949.71.813.81.3127.6
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Offense1240% (128)42% (91)31.31043.316 (88).05 (104)2.75 (107)80% (15)10% (82)0.89 (103)
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Defense1250% (73)44% (85) - - - - .12 (81)2.79 (54)70% (59)7% (127)1.04 (106)
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Offense1258% (9)44% (50)23.937.8280.27.411.720 (42)12 (60).25 (67)1.4 (124)31% (65)31% (55).32 (64)7% (99)1.9 (91)
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Defense1247% (56)42% (72) - - - - - - 6 (75).39 (120)1.7 (127)29% (117)33% (109).36 (99)5% (104)2 (76)
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 2.24  #61
Boston College's Offense Rating: 10.55  #61
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.31  #70
2025 Talent Rating: 792.00  #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Boston College's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Boston College's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4  #102
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #94
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #111

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 2.24   Michigan State: 5.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: -9.4   Michigan State: -3.3




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 5.155  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Boston College Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boston College's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan State 29
Boston College 21


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Boston College 29
Michigan State 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Michigan State 29
Boston College 27

Total Points: 56
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Michigan State42Boston College40Michigan State -3.5Boston College45.5Over
202409/21Boston College23Michigan State19Boston College -4.5Michigan State45.5Under
200712/28Michigan State21Boston College24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State111 Overs
Boston College211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#61) BC at (#46) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBCMSU
Power RatePwr #61 #46
SP+SP+ #102 #84
Perf GradeGrade #107 #94
OffenseOff #74 #65
DefenseDef #126 #107
Spec TeamsST #45 #134
TalentTal #56 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #33
Boston College Notes
(11/16) 500+ yds in L vs GT. Rough, lost season for BC
(10/31) Sounds like Dylan Lonergan is QB1 vs ND
(10/22) Defense near worst in CFB in scoring opportunites
(10/18) LT Bowry, LG Daugherty both out vs UConn
(10/18) L to UConn at home ugly, Pass Def torched, Off OK
(10/18) QB James in for Lonergan (benched). Run Off awful
(10/5) Quit watch: 48-7 loss at Pitt feels like turning point
(10/4) This Def is f'ing terrible. Not much to like about BC
(9/11) Both starting CBs out vs Stanford, DT as well
(9/9) QB Lonergan a baller, Pass Off good, can't run
(8/12) QB1 Lonergan (TR - Bama) beat James for job
(5/15) WR Bond back, Harris a playmaker. Solid group
Boston College Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Boston College on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #74 #107
SuccessSuc #65 #116
ExplosiveExp #92 #26
PPAPPA #79 #103
PowerPwr #61 #50
SP+SP+ #94 #85
Pts POPPO #98 #95
HavocHav #92 #111
Boston College Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #118 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #91 #123
Run ExplRExp #103 #44
PPAExp #104 #101
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #65
Stuff RateStuff #56 #104
TackleTak -  #51
Boston College Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #50 #101
Pass ExplPExl #124 #33
PPAExp #67 #102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #68 #104
F7 HavocF7 #82 #97
DB HavocDB #99 #115
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffBC Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #126
SuccessSuc #77 #83
ExplosiveExp #96 #127
PPAPPA #98 #114
PowerPwr #45 #70
SP+SP+ #74 #111
Pts POPPO #64 #86
HavocHav #115 #127
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffBC Def
Run GameRun #62 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #85
Run ExplRExp #72 #106
PPAExp #95 #81
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #54
Stuff RateStuff #133 #46
TackleTak -  #59
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffBC Def
Pass GamePass #91 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #72
Pass ExplPExl #112 #127
PPAExp #73 #120
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #101
F7 HavocF7 #132 #127
DB HavocDB #24 #104
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

BC 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 57° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Michigan State -3.5 (45.5)
Michigan State won vs Boston College this year (42-40)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat Michigan State last year (23-19)

  
BC's OC Will Lawing (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Lonergan (Tr)19028467%20251257.1
Grayson James8715158%1196757.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Turbo Richard14574995.271
Jordan Mcdonald9439744.217
Grayson James546501.220
Bo MacCormack III154312.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lewis Bond891010111.354
Reed Harris39673517.357
Jeremiah Franklin48489210.232
Kaelan Chudzinski24313413.045

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KP Price933030
Omar Thornton828211
Carter Davis592102
Owen McGowan545113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sedarius McConnell318300
Omar Thornton828211
Quintayvious Hutchins364271
Favor Bate (Tr)141122
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Farris280006
Amari Jackson70004
Ashton Cunningham130003

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012