UCLA at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan State -7 (51.5) (-270) Open: -8.5
UCLA 38 - Michigan State: 13 (Big Ten)

Bruins (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (17 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Our Line: Michigan State -10 (SP+ MSU -5)
Projected Score: UCLA: 21 - MSU: 31 (52)
MSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UCLA Travel: 1902 miles, 3 hrs behind

Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UCLA vs Utah	+6.5	50.5	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/6	UCLA at UNLV	-2.5	54.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Fri 9/12	UCLA vs New Mexico	-15.5	52.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	UCLA at Northwestern	+6.0	45.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/4	UCLA vs Penn State	+24.5	48.5	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/11	UCLA at Michigan State	+7.0	51.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCLA vs Maryland	-3.5	52.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/25	UCLA at Indiana	+26.5	53.5	L 6 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	UCLA vs Nebraska	-1.5	45.5	L 21 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCLA at Ohio State	+33.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCLA vs Washington	+10.5	51.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/29	UCLA at USC	+21.0	59.0	L 10 - 29	U	Y

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-18.5	49.5	W 23 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan State vs Boston College	-3.5	45.5	W 42 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-23.5	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/20	Michigan State at USC	+18.5	55.5	L 31 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan State at Nebraska	+12.5	48.5	L 27 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Michigan State vs UCLA	-7.0	51.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+26.5	49.5	L 13 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan State vs Michigan	+13.5	47.5	L 20 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Michigan State at Minnesota	+4.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan State vs Penn State	+7.0	48.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/22	Michigan State at Iowa	+17.5	43.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Michigan State vs Maryland	-4.0	49.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)	18.2	34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)	33.4	45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	24.6	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	29.9	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	12	18.2	16.8	39%	3.15	1.4	18	329	87	242	3.1	41%	59%	34%	43%	17%	.14
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	12	33.4	32.2	45.9%	4.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	47%	18%	.16
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	12	31:07	18	43%	50%	8.2	68.9	1.4	1.1	5.3	1.8	2	27.8
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	12	41% (122)	34% (131)	28	86.9	3.1	4 (133)	-.05 (129)	2.47 (132)	70% (87)	10% (85)	0.94 (84)
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	12	43% (2)	45% (83)	-	-	-	-	.05 (30)	2.92 (52)	78% (101)	10% (68)	0.72 (2)
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	12	59% (12)	43% (56)	21.6	33.2	242.2	7.3	11.2	17 (79)	11 (72)	.26 (62)	1.5 (95)	36% (126)	36% (21)	.42 (30)	7% (99)	1.9 (102)
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	12	57% (132)	47% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.26 (82)	1.4 (15)	30% (100)	33% (106)	.31 (70)	8% (8)	2 (53)
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 1.94 #57
UCLA's Offense Rating: 17.07 #46
UCLA's Defense Rating: 15.13 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 796.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #37
UCLA's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UCLA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #98
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #105
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 1.94 Michigan State: 6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: -8.7 Michigan State: -3.4

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.53 #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95 #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49 #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UCLA's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 31
UCLA 21

Projected Total Points: 52

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Michigan State	13	UCLA	38	Michigan State -7	UCLA	51.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	0	0	0 Overs
UCLA	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#57) UCLA at (#37) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#57	#37
SP+SP+	#98	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#119	#91
OffenseOff	#110	#61
DefenseDef	#120	#96
Spec TeamsST	#38	#133
TalentTal	#54	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	#37	#33

UCLA Notes(12/1) Hired Bob Chesney (JMU), a great hire for UCLA
(11/15) QB1 Nico out vs Ohio St (Concussion)
(10/15) No one left via portal after Foster firing, incredible
(10/12) Back 2 back wins, but Sparty is truly awful esp Def
(10/6) 1st time OC Jerry Neuheisel a revelation, great game
(10/4) Incredible effort, unreal W vs Penn St. Nico 5 TD's
(10/4) OG'd PSU by 100, held ball 40 mins, Run Def good
(9/30) Two score underdogs or more in every game forward
(9/30) OC Sunseri fired 4 games in, Jerry Neuheisel Int
(9/14) HC Foster fired, SA Tim Skipper interim HC
(9/13) Outscored 30-0 in 1st quarter in 1st 3 games
(9/13) NM mauled Bruins Def up front. Run Off sucks
UCLA Injury Report

Michigan State Notes(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report

UCLA on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#96
SuccessSuc	#112	#69
ExplosiveExp	#43	#110
PPAPPA	#99	#85
PowerPwr	#46	#35
SP+SP+	#105	#81
Pts POPPO	#123	#98
HavocHav	#96	#93

UCLA Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#66	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#25
Run ExplRExp	#84	#80
PPAExp	#129	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#99	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#33
TackleTak	-	#40

UCLA Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#101
PPAExp	#62	#111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#89	#102
F7 HavocF7	#85	#64
DB HavocDB	#99	#121

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	UCLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#120
SuccessSuc	#86	#110
ExplosiveExp	#118	#10
PPAPPA	#105	#68
PowerPwr	#28	#80
SP+SP+	#70	#94
Pts POPPO	#116	#123
HavocHav	#98	#37

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#78	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#83
Run ExplRExp	#126	#2
PPAExp	#116	#30
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#53
TackleTak	-	#55

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#15
PPAExp	#79	#82
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#121	#136
F7 HavocF7	#112	#68
DB HavocDB	#63	#8

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Michigan State -7.0 (51.5)
UCLA won at Michigan State this year (38-13)

Previous Matchups
UCLA beat Michigan State last year (38-13)

UCLA's OC Tino Sunseri (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)	208	323	64%	1928	13	7	6.0
Luke Duncan	21	34	62%	235	2	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)	112	505	4	4.5	52
Jalen Berger	81	364	2	4.5	24
Jaivian Thomas (Tr)	82	306	1	3.7	32
Anthony Woods (Tr)	63	294	0	4.7	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kwazi Gilmer	50	535	4	10.7	43
Mikey Matthews (Tr)	33	348	2	10.5	37
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala	25	322	3	12.9	34
Rico Flores	26	274	0	10.5	51

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JonJon Vaughns	107	6	1	0	1
Isaiah Chisom (Tr)	84	3	0	1	1
Key Lawrence (Tr)	70	4	0	1	1
Cole Martin (Tr)	65	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Woods	47	5	2	0	3
Anthony Jones (Tr)	20	3	2	4	1
JonJon Vaughns	107	6	1	0	1
Kechaun Bennett (Tr)	23	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Andre Jordan	19	0	10
Rodrick Pleasant (Tr)	36	2	7
Cole Martin (Tr)	65	4	3

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	128	203	63%	1392	10	3	6.9
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makhi Frazier	116	520	2	4.5	49
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)	72	428	2	5.9	85
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Aidan Chiles	81	227	6	2.8	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	59	662	6	11.2	48
Omari Kelly (Tr)	47	626	2	13.3	75
Jack Velling	36	359	3	10.0	28
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)	24	330	3	13.8	45

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Wayne Matthews III	73	5	0	0	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Alex VanSumeren	50	2	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Jalen Thompson	29	6	3	8	1
Quindarius Dunnigan	25	5	3	9	0
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)	49	5	1	0	6
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Chance Rucker	7	0	0	1	2