Michigan State at Iowa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kinnick Stadium - Iowa City, IA  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (3 - 0) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (35 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Iowa -8   (SP+ IOWA -6)
Projected Score: MSU: 22 - IOWA: 30 (51)
IOWA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MSU Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hawkeyes (2 - 1) (1 - 1 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 31 - 10 (41 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+17.555.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+11.5
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-17.5
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+14.5
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+11.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+19.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+8
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-0.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.545.5
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-2.5
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State+14
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+13.5
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+14.5
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-8
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska+6.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#119 (.07)41% (93)35.340% (96)2.54 (105)16842% (77)2194.22 (56)#62 (.12)42% (80)23.334% (33)48% (113)1.89 (12)351.31
IOWA#61 (.22)47% (45)31.354% (23)3.82 (8)21434% (114)1224.89 (35)#34 (.03)34% (30)1034% (31)34% (40)3.75 (76)210.70.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense335.335.340.7%4.221.3213871682194.557%42%40%42%18%.07
IOWA Defense310734.1%3.750.3 - - - - - 47%53%34%34%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense323.323.341.7%1.891 - - - - - 39%58%34%48%21%.12
IOWA Offense331.340.546.7%4.890.7193362141224.961%39%54%34%10%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State332:1321.343%60%4.3351.317.32031.1
Iowa333:1619.354%67%2.3210.70.36.32.3133.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense357% (31)40% (96)37.31684.57 (38)-.04 (117)2.54 (105)56% (118)16% (133)0.98 (64)
IOWA Defense347% (46)34% (31) - - - - (48)2.81 (74)100% (127)14% (26)0.82 (42)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense339% (6)34% (33) - - - - -.19 (9)1.71 (5)100% (127)15% (17)0.57 (4)
IOWA Offense361% (15)54% (23)442144.96 (49).26 (37)3.82 (8)85% (27)7% (46)0.79 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense342% (108)42% (77)19.327.3218.7811.36 (34)2 (60).22 (83)1.4 (100)28% (42)32% (63).35 (62)2% (4)1.9 (91)
IOWA Defense353% (93)34% (40) - - - - - - 0.05 (28)1 (5)37% (36)15% (13)-.02 (19)5% (99)1.2 (2)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense358% (119)48% (113) - - - - - - 2 (56).33 (106)1.3 (23)38% (23)24% (39).24 (63)6% (65)2.1 (94)
IOWA Offense339% (121)34% (114)14.323.7121.75.18.54 (72)1 (23).17 (98)1.5 (88)21% (9)21% (122).03 (122)3% (14)1 (135)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 12.43 #45
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 15.05 #52
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 2.62 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #57
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #77
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #39

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 12.43   Iowa: 16.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 4.6   Iowa: 11.0




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 16.465 #37
Iowa's Offense Rating: 13.80 #63
Iowa's Defense Rating: -3.13 #14
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #34
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #78
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.5 #12

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 35.3
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.3

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 30
Michigan State 22


Total Points: 51

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Michigan State32Iowa20Michigan StateIowa -7Michigan State39.5Over
202309/30Iowa26Michigan State16IowaIowa -10Push36.5Over
202011/07Iowa49Michigan State7IowaIowa -5.5Iowa46.0Over
201709/30Michigan State17Iowa10Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State44.5Under
201512/05Iowa13Michigan State16Michigan StateMichigan State -4Iowa50.0Under
201310/05Iowa14Michigan State26Michigan StateIowa -2Michigan State0
201210/13Michigan State16Iowa19Iowa
201111/12Iowa21Michigan State37Michigan State
201010/30Iowa37Michigan State6Iowa
200910/24Michigan State13Iowa15Iowa
200810/04Michigan State16Iowa13Michigan State
200710/27Iowa34Michigan State27Iowa
200410/02Iowa38Michigan State16Iowa
200309/27Michigan State20Iowa10Michigan State
200210/12Iowa44Michigan State16Iowa
200110/13Michigan State31Iowa28Michigan State
200010/06Iowa21Michigan State16Iowa
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa923 Overs
Michigan State832 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 54 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams5 - 121 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#45) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: 12.43 #45
Offense Rating: 15.05 #52
Defense Rating: 2.62 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #77
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #39
Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Great in Scoring Position 1.89 PPO
Good Run Def Success 34%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Michigan State has lost 7 straight
Michigan State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Michigan State Notes
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
(8/16) TE Veiling out of fall camp? Expect week 1 go
(7/30) 12 starters gone, 41 newcomers (23 portals)
(7/30) OT C. Moore (Mon St) was FCS All American
(7/27) QB Chiles has real WR & TE weapons this year
(7/27) Can RB Tau-Tolliver (Sac St) fix this run game?
(7/15) OL 2/5 back, awful LY esp OTs. 4 portal adds
(5/27) DC Joe Rossi a good one, OC Lindgren avg
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)

Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State in Undefeated

Michigan State defense is really good in red zone (#12)
Michigan State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#10)
Michigan State Defensive Line is very good (#5)
Michigan State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Michigan State commits very few Penalties (#30)

Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatIOWAMSU
OverallOver#16#25
OffenseOff#24#21
DefenseDef#13#36
Special TeamsST#77#83
PassingPass#73#88
RushingRush#46#56
Run BlockRBLK#1#14
Pass BlockPBLK#28#67
Route RunningWR Rt#91#8
TacklingTkl#37#48
Run DefenseR Def#30#9
Pass Rush DefPRush#4#48
Coverage DefCov#46#54

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | IOWA
Depth Chart: MSU | IOWA
Rosters: MSU | IOWA
(#37) Iowa Info
Power Rating: 16.465 #37
Offense Rating: 13.80 #63
Defense Rating: -3.13 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #34
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.5 #12
Talent Rating: 840.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 47%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.89 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Awful Pass Success 34%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 34%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Good Run Def Success 34%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Iowa has lost 7 straight
Iowa has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Iowa Notes
(9/6) QB Gronowski is shockingly awful. WR are trash
(9/1) Gronowski really bad (44 yds), hiding vs FCS?
(8/28) WR Vaner Zee out about a month (foot)
(6/6) OL 3/5 back. Have options, PFF top 10 OL
(5/27) Warren Ruggiero (Wake OC) is Sr Off Analyst
(5/21) WRs bad LY, only 1 portal add (FCS)? No obv TE
(5/21) LB a big ? this year. Not one has 100 snaps
(5/2) DT Graves/ S Nwankpa both top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OL G L Jones/T G Dunker top 10 via PFF
(3/31) QB Gronowski (SDSU) big add. Surgery ?'s

Iowa Highlights
Iowa is Undefeated at Home

Iowa has Really Good Running Game (#24)
Iowa has a top Offensive Line (#8)
Iowa offense is good on 3rd downs
Iowa does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#1)

Iowa has a really good defense (#30)
Iowa defense does not give up big plays (#5)
Iowa Front 7 is disruptive (#26)
Iowa has a great TO Margin (#28)
Iowa commits very few Penalties (#1)
Iowa defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Iowa Deficiencies
Iowa offense is not Explosive (#130)
Iowa pass game is really bad (#114)


  
Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles588172%656618.1
Alessio Milivojevic010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier4320624.828
Aidan Chiles3012314.128
Brandon Tullis1811226.214
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)135514.222
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh16194312.141
Omari Kelly (Tr)15184012.330
Michael Masunas681213.528
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)580016.028

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall274210
Wayne Matthews III241000
Ade Willie142011
Malik Spencer101100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall274210
Anelu Lafaele (Tr)32210
Malik Spencer101100
Jalen Thompson93120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brady Pretzlaff41002
Chance Rucker60012
Malcolm Bell (Tr)51001

Iowa's OC Tim Lester
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)376359%306314.9
Hank Brown (Tr)6875%59107.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Williams2618617.243
Jaziun Patterson2816105.817
Terrell Washington Jr.239504.113
Mark Gronowski (Tr)338832.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Phillips (Tr)490022.545
Jacob Gill780011.422
Seth Anderson64026.720
Nathan Mcneil132032.032

View Iowa's Full Roster
Iowa's DC Phil Parker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Harrell191110
Karson Sharar162000
Zach Lutmer152101
Xavier Nwankpa110000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn64300
Jaden Harrell191110
Zach Lutmer152101
Aaron Graves83120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall80003
Luke Gaffney00001
Deshaun Lee90001