Michigan State at Iowa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Iowa -17.5 (43.0) (-900)  Open: -16.5 | 42.5
Iowa 20 - Michigan State: 17  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Iowa -18  (SP+ IOWA -21)
Projected Score: MSU: 14 - IOWA: 32 (45)
IOWA Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
MSU Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
IOWA#76 (.16)44% (47)29.349% (15)3.41 (7)16438% (107)1274.39 (25)#19 (.06)39% (35)16.141% (58)38% (32)3.27 (35)26.10.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
IOWA Defense1316.113.738.9%3.271.1 - - - - - 50%48%41%38%17%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
IOWA Offense1329.328.344.4%4.390.9162911641274.660%38%49%38%11%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Iowa1328:581643%67%2.626.10.91.14.41.6533
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)
IOWA Defense1350% (63)41% (58) - - - - .07 (51)2.87 (68)69% (51)10% (49)0.87 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
IOWA Offense1360% (12)49% (15)35.9164.14.626 (23).2 (29)3.41 (7)83% (5)8% (32)0.87 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)
IOWA Defense1348% (67)38% (32) - - - - - - 11 (38).14 (23)1.3 (4)29% (112)23% (5).17 (19)7% (31)1.9 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
IOWA Offense1338% (126)38% (107)12.620.3126.86.310.110 (128)7 (60).19 (100)1.5 (92)26% (13)25% (120).13 (126)3% (4)1.8 (120)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.61  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 8.61   Iowa: 20.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.3   Iowa: 17.5




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 20.64  #20
Iowa's Offense Rating: 14.86  #41
Iowa's Defense Rating: -3.92  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #48
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 32
Michigan State 14


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 28
Michigan State 16

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 30
Michigan State 19

Total Points: 49
Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Iowa20Michigan State17Iowa -17.5Michigan State43.0Under
202410/19Michigan State32Iowa20Iowa -7Michigan State39.5Over
202309/30Iowa26Michigan State16Iowa -10Push36.5Over
202011/07Iowa49Michigan State7Iowa -5.5Iowa46.0Over
201709/30Michigan State17Iowa10Michigan State -3.5Michigan State44.5Under
201512/05Iowa13Michigan State16Michigan State -4Iowa50.0Under
201310/05Iowa14Michigan State26Iowa -2Michigan State0
201210/13Michigan State16Iowa19
201111/12Iowa21Michigan State37
201010/30Iowa37Michigan State6
200910/24Michigan State13Iowa15
200810/04Michigan State16Iowa13
200710/27Iowa34Michigan State27
200410/02Iowa38Michigan State16
200309/27Michigan State20Iowa10
200210/12Iowa44Michigan State16
200110/13Michigan State31Iowa28
200010/06Iowa21Michigan State16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa1023 Overs
Michigan State843 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 54 - 22 - 22 - 0
Road Teams5 - 132 - 40 - 22 - 2

(#46) MSU at (#20) IOWA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUIOWA
Power RatePwr #46 #20
SP+SP+ #84 #15
Perf GradeGrade #94 #9
OffenseOff #65 #8
DefenseDef #107 #18
Spec TeamsST #134 #8
TalentTal #30 #41
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #33
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #18
SuccessSuc #77 #35
ExplosiveExp #96 #3
PPAPPA #98 #19
PowerPwr #45 #20
SP+SP+ #74 #7
Pts POPPO #64 #35
HavocHav #115 #44
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #62 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #58
Run ExplRExp #72 #23
PPAExp #95 #51
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #68
Stuff RateStuff #133 #69
TackleTak -  #92
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #91 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #32
Pass ExplPExl #112 #4
PPAExp #73 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #121 #7
F7 HavocF7 #132 #49
DB HavocDB #24 #31
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #107
SuccessSuc #47 #116
ExplosiveExp #133 #26
PPAPPA #76 #103
PowerPwr #41 #50
SP+SP+ #48 #85
Pts POPPO #25 #95
HavocHav #6 #111
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #30 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #15 #123
Run ExplRExp #112 #44
PPAExp #29 #101
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #65
Stuff RateStuff #7 #104
TackleTak -  #51
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #56 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #101
Pass ExplPExl #92 #33
PPAExp #100 #102
Pass Block/RushP Blk #4 #104
F7 HavocF7 #32 #97
DB HavocDB #4 #115
Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 57° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Iowa -17.5 (43.0)
Iowa won vs Michigan State this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)15024063%1529866.4
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton15678345.034
Mark Gronowski (Tr)120491154.167
Jaziun Patterson5729905.217
Xavier Williams4426035.943
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme22288213.143
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Jacob Gill22260111.844
Reece Vander Zee11186116.929

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar7810251
Xavier Nwankpa691010
Koen Entringer694013
Zach Lutmer686106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn239675
Ethan Hurkett339620
Aaron Graves367531
Karson Sharar7810251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall390008
Zach Lutmer686106
Deshaun Lee341006