Maryland at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Maryland logo   Maryland Terrapins vs Michigan State Spartans  Michigan State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Michigan State -4.0 (49.5) (-185)  Open: -4.5 | 48.5
Michigan State 38 - Maryland: 28  (Big Ten)

 
Terrapins (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (33 - 41)
Avg Score : 24 - 27 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
MD is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan State -3.5  (SP+ MD -4)

Projected Score: MD: 23 - MSU: 27 (50)
MSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MD Travel: 394 miles
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Maryland's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Maryland vs Florida Atlantic-16.557.5W 39 - 7UY
Fri 9/5 Maryland vs Northern Illinois-17.044.5W 20 - 9UN
Sat 9/13 Maryland vs Towson-28.553.5W 44 - 17ON
Sat 9/20 Maryland at Wisconsin+10.544.5W 27 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Maryland vs Washington+5.552.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 10/11 Maryland vs Nebraska+7.047.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/18 Maryland at UCLA+3.552.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Maryland vs Indiana+21.050.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Maryland at Rutgers+1.556.5L 20 - 35UN
Sat 11/15 Maryland at Illinois+15.551.5L 6 - 24UN
Sat 11/22 Maryland vs Michigan+14.046.5L 20 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Maryland vs Michigan State+4.049.5L 28 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Maryland's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MD#106 (.13)41% (92)23.541% (97)2.89 (94)11141% (74)2763.62 (95)#84 (.19)43% (86)26.542% (65)44% (107)4.34 (116)58.61.71.4
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)24.645% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)29.939% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MD0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MD Offense1223.517.540.9%3.621.7223861112763.640%60%41%41%17%.13
MSU Defense1229.927.841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MD Defense1226.522.343.3%4.341.4 - - - - - 50%50%42%44%14%.19
MSU Offense1224.624.841.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Maryland1230:0521.540%45%6.458.61.71.45.71.2027.8
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MD Offense1240% (125)41% (97)30.8110.63.615 (96).03 (113)2.89 (94)69% (100)9% (45)0.95 (78)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MD Defense1250% (60)42% (65) - - - - .05 (28)2.73 (27)75% (75)10% (71)0.89 (27)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MD Offense1260% (10)41% (74)26.341.1275.76.710.521 (51)14 (115).19 (97)1.4 (124)32% (77)32% (64).24 (101)8% (120)1.8 (123)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MD Defense1250% (78)44% (107) - - - - - - 10 (66).34 (109)1.5 (44)30% (97)32% (91).3 (67)4% (122)1.8 (25)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: 0.15  #69
Maryland's Offense Rating: 12.66  #71
Maryland's Defense Rating: 12.51  #59
2025 Talent Rating: 806.00  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
Maryland's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Maryland's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.6  #75
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7  #55

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Maryland: 0.15   Michigan State: 4.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Maryland: 0.6   Michigan State: -3.4




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 4.03  #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95  #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49  #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.3

Maryland's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan State 27
Maryland 23


Projected Total Points: 50
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Michigan State38Maryland28Michigan State -4.0Michigan State49.5Over
202409/07Maryland24Michigan State27Maryland -7.5Michigan State44.5Over
202309/23Michigan State9Maryland31Maryland -7Maryland52.5Under
202210/01Maryland27Michigan State13Maryland -7.5Maryland58.5Under
202111/13Michigan State40Maryland21Michigan State -11.5Michigan State60.0Over
201911/30Michigan State19Maryland16Michigan State -21.5Maryland47.5Under
201811/03Maryland3Michigan State24Michigan State -3Michigan State43.0Under
201711/18Michigan State17Maryland7Michigan State -14Maryland44.5Under
201610/22Maryland28Michigan State17Michigan State -2.5Maryland49.0Under
201511/14Michigan State24Maryland7Michigan State -16Michigan State54.0Under
201411/15Maryland15Michigan State37Michigan State -10.5Michigan State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State863 Overs
Maryland357 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 45 - 64 - 31 - 3
Road Teams4 - 76 - 53 - 13 - 4

(#69) MD at (#37) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMDMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #69 #37
SP+SP+ #75 #82
Perf GradeGrade #104 #91
OffenseOff #106 #61
DefenseDef #73 #96
Spec TeamsST #104 #133
TalentTal #51 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #33
Maryland Notes
(11/29) 8 straight L's to finish, but Locksley is back next year?
(11/22) 7 straight L's, 4th straight no show. Team quit
(11/9) Only 3 2H points in bad L to Rutgers. Bowl doubts
(11/5) 1-11 run after wk 4 past 2 years, last 3/4 by 1 score
(11/2) Locksley now 17-45 in B1G games, 20-0 OOC
(10/12) Blew Neb game. Is it same ole MD time now it's Oct?
(10/6) Locksley is now 0-10 following a bye week
(9/24) Fr DEs Stewart & Mathis have been huge finds
(9/20) Huge W at Wisc, Fr QB Washington the real deal
(9/5) Run game awful. QB Wash & WR entire Off
(8/30) QB Wash. great start, run game awful, Def OK
(8/21) Fr QB Washington may be real deal, big add
Maryland Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Maryland on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 35%
CategoryCat
MD OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #106 #96
SuccessSuc #92 #69
ExplosiveExp #89 #110
PPAPPA #106 #85
PowerPwr #71 #35
SP+SP+ #90 #81
Pts POPPO #95 #98
HavocHav #88 #93
Maryland Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 35%
CategoryCat
MD OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #86 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #97 #25
Run ExplRExp #78 #80
PPAExp #113 #36
Run BlockR Blk #136 -
OL YdsOLY #94 #37
Stuff RateStuff #73 #33
TackleTak -  #40
Maryland Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 35%
CategoryCat
MD OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #56 #86
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #111
Pass ExplPExl #124 #101
PPAExp #97 #111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #28 #102
F7 HavocF7 #45 #64
DB HavocDB #120 #121
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffMD Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #73
SuccessSuc #86 #86
ExplosiveExp #118 #39
PPAPPA #105 #84
PowerPwr #28 #59
SP+SP+ #70 #55
Pts POPPO #116 #116
HavocHav #98 #103
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffMD Def
Run GameRun #78 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #50 #65
Run ExplRExp #126 #27
PPAExp #116 #28
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #27
Stuff RateStuff #113 #42
TackleTak -  #83
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffMD Def
Pass GamePass #89 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #107
Pass ExplPExl #57 #44
PPAExp #79 #109
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #43
F7 HavocF7 #112 #71
DB HavocDB #63 #122
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MD 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions: Light Snowfall
Temp: 30° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Michigan State -4.0 (49.5)
Michigan State won vs Maryland this year (38-28)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Maryland last year (38-28)
Michigan State beat Maryland in 2024 (27-24)
Maryland beat Michigan State in 2023 (31-9)

  
MD's OC Pep Hamilton (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malik Washington27347358%29631796.3
Khristian Martin111765%105106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeJuan Williams12850133.940
Malik Washington5531745.873
Nolan Ray6728924.353
Iverson Howard3912503.210
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shaleak Knotts44717616.362
Jalil Farooq (Tr)5854549.429
Octavian Smith Jr.43529012.353
DeJuan Williams4542619.555

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Wingate1027221
Jalen Huskey722002
Carlton Smith642140
Lavain Scruggs641013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sidney Stewart3211772
Zahir Mathis359631
Nahsir Taylor193220
Trey Reddick536202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dontay Joyner (Tr)401008
Jamare Glasker (Tr)326006
Messiah Delhomme391003

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Malik Spencer523215
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012