Ball State at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Auburn TigersAuburn logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Jordan-Hare Stadium - Auburn, AL

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#131)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
BALL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Auburn -42   (SP+ AUB -33)

Projected Score: BALL: 9 - AUB: 51 (57)
AUB Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
BALL Travel: 526 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 21 (33 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.50.0
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+42
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-1
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+16
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+7.5
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+0.5
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+14.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-6
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+5.5
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+23.5
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+13.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-2.556.5
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-42
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-22.5
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+4.5
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+8
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri-6.5
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas-5
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-14.5
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-40.5
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+10.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)25.344% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)40.146% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)27.848% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)21.338% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AUB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1225.32342.1%3.941.2203481032453.442%58%44%41%19%.14
AUB Defense1221.320.837.8%3.351.1 - - - - - 53%47%38%38%15%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1240.144.946.5%4.811.3 - - - - - 47%52%46%47%13%.32
AUB Offense1227.833.144.9%3.421.821430166264548%52%48%42%17%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1230:5820.342%46%4.945.31.21.34.61.7230.3
Auburn1227:1320.941%47%5.849.31.81.15.72.3127.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1242% (120)44% (70)30.8103.43.410 (122).1 (91)3.06 (61)80% (23)11% (99)0.87 (117)
AUB Defense1253% (98)38% (19) - - - - -.02 (7)2.49 (6)80% (108)10% (81)0.93 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1247% (34)46% (103) - - - - .22 (116)3.17 (90)74% (72)9% (103)1.08 (110)
AUB Offense1248% (85)48% (21)33.4165.7513 (105).16 (55)3.32 (23)69% (95)10% (67)0.92 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1258% (16)41% (72)23.336.6244.76.710.526 (26)11 (72).19 (98)1.6 (73)33% (93)28% (101).29 (88)8% (123)2.2 (15)
AUB Defense1247% (42)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (93).22 (63)1.7 (104)35% (19)28% (34).21 (31)6% (77)2.1 (85)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1252% (100)47% (121) - - - - - - 8 (93).44 (128)1.8 (119)33% (55)40% (133).57 (131)5% (115)2.2 (115)
AUB Offense1252% (47)42% (67)19.230.8263.98.613.827 (20)13 (103).31 (45)1.6 (39)31% (55)32% (69).41 (34)7% (113)1.9 (101)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.84 #133
Ball State's Offense Rating: 2.51 #128
Ball State's Defense Rating: 26.35 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #83
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #134
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 527.38
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.84   Auburn: 19.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -21.2   Auburn: 11.8




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 19.515 #11
Auburn's Offense Rating: 23.09 #16
Auburn's Defense Rating: 0.86 #10
2025 Talent Rating: 974.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #13
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #25
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #48
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 51
Ball State 9


Projected Total Points: 57
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
200909/26Auburn54Ball State30Auburn
200509/17Auburn63Ball State3Auburn
200109/01Auburn30Ball State0Auburn
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn300 Overs
Ball State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#133) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.84 #133
Offense Rating: 2.51 #128
Defense Rating: 26.35 #126
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #134
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #131
Talent Rating: 486.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #83
Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
(3/26) New HC Uremovich 23-11 @ Butler
(3/26) OC Harmon a HS coach recently, history w/ HC
Ball State     Ratings Matchup     Auburn
Power #133
#11
Off #128
#16
Def #126
#10
Talent #109
#15
SP+ #134
#25
SP+ Off #123
#48
SP+ Def #131
#18

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BALL | AUB
Depth Chart: BALL | AUB
Rosters: BALL | AUB
(#11) Auburn Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.515 #11
Offense Rating: 23.09 #16
Defense Rating: 0.86 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #18
Talent Rating: 974.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #13
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.42 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.35 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Auburn Notes
(5/23) DE Faulk a star, duo w/ Crawford top unit
(5/23) Aub was 1-3 in 1 score games LY (1-3 in '23)
(5/23) Safeties Harris & Smith a top duo in CFB
(5/11) SEC most exp'd line, 67% returning, 33% portals
(4/4) QB Arnold (OU) likely starter, Daniels/Knight #2?
(4/4) RB rebuild, D. Robinson (UConn) added, talent
(4/4) WR a top CFB Unit, Singleton (GT) big add
(4/4) Connor Lew (C) a top IOL via PFF
(3/28) This is a playoff roster if QB is competent
(3/18) TO's killed AU LY. Too many, little forced


  
Ball State's OC Craig Harmon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Kiael Kelly2450%8002.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)12240913.460
TJ Horton2310704.717
Elijah Jackson (Tr)697116.269
Kiael Kelly359112.624
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)2825519.151
Qian Magwood2320749.045
Dahya Patel7120117.133
Ty Robinson569113.821

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joey Stemler566260
Jordan Coleman422002
Ashton Whitner (Tr)261011
Jackson Wiegold242002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Caden Johnson221100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Scott Hudson31102
Jackson Wiegold242002
Jordan Coleman422002

Auburn's OC Derrick Nix
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)17027163%170010126.3
Jackson Arnold (Tr)15424663%14211235.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Durell Robinson (Tr)10773186.868
Ashton Daniels (Tr)14866934.567
Jackson Arnold (Tr)15044433.047
Damari Alston5227635.336
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)56754313.557
Cam Coleman37598816.263
Horatio Fields (Tr)39463411.942
Malcolm Simmons40451311.357

View Auburn's Full Roster
Auburn's DC D. J. Durkin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader (Tr)5300017
Dallas Walker IV (Tr)514010
Keldric Faulk4511771
Taye Seymore (Tr)453002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keldric Faulk4511771
Chris Murray (Tr)3412620
Caleb Wheatland (Tr)427442
Demarcus Riddick275321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader (Tr)5300017
Kayin Lee320007
Jay Crawford150007