Ball State at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Auburn TigersAuburn logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -43.0 (52.5) (0)  Open: -43.5 | 55.5
Auburn 42 - Ball State: 3

 
Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
BALL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Auburn -38.5  (SP+ AUB -35)

Projected Score: BALL: 5 - AUB: 44 (49)
AUB Win prob: 100% | Cover: 30%
BALL Travel: 526 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron+2.544.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+6.541.5L 7 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-3.048.5W 17 - 13UY
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+2.548.5L 9 - 24UN
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+29.545.5L 9 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.540.5L 24 - 45ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.547.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+6.551.5L 10 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+4.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri+1.543.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas+2.555.5W 33 - 24OY
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-11.544.5L 3 - 10UN
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt+6.046.5L 38 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-26.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+6.548.5L 20 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)15.844% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)29.846% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)26.848% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)20.738% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AUB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.742.1%3.941.2203481032453.442%58%44%41%19%.14
AUB Defense1220.716.437.8%3.351.1 - - - - - 53%47%38%38%15%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.746.5%4.811.3 - - - - - 47%52%46%47%13%.32
AUB Offense1226.826.444.9%3.421.821430166264548%52%48%42%17%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1230:5820.342%46%4.945.31.21.34.61.7230.3
Auburn1227:1320.941%47%5.849.31.81.15.72.3127.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1242% (120)44% (70)30.8103.43.410 (122).1 (91)3.06 (61)80% (23)11% (99)0.87 (117)
AUB Defense1253% (98)38% (19) - - - - -.02 (7)2.49 (6)80% (108)10% (81)0.93 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1247% (34)46% (103) - - - - .22 (116)3.17 (90)74% (72)9% (103)1.08 (110)
AUB Offense1248% (85)48% (21)33.4165.7513 (105).16 (55)3.32 (23)69% (95)10% (67)0.92 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1258% (16)41% (72)23.336.6244.76.710.526 (26)11 (72).19 (98)1.6 (73)33% (93)28% (101).29 (88)8% (123)2.2 (15)
AUB Defense1247% (42)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (93).22 (63)1.7 (104)35% (19)28% (34).21 (31)6% (77)2.1 (85)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1252% (100)47% (121) - - - - - - 8 (93).44 (128)1.8 (119)33% (55)40% (133).57 (131)5% (115)2.2 (115)
AUB Offense1252% (47)42% (67)19.230.8263.98.613.827 (20)13 (103).31 (45)1.6 (39)31% (55)32% (69).41 (34)7% (113)1.9 (101)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.23  #131
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #136
Ball State's Defense Rating: 19.13  #98
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.23   Auburn: 16.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0   Auburn: 11.6




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 16.64  #16
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.79  #48
Auburn's Defense Rating: 0.11  #10
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 44
Ball State 5


Projected Total Points: 49
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Auburn42Ball State3Auburn -43.0Ball State52.5Under
200909/26Auburn54Ball State30
200509/17Auburn63Ball State3
200109/01Auburn30Ball State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn400 Overs
Ball State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 41 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#131) BALL at (#16) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLAUB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #131 #16
SP+SP+ #132 #29
Perf GradeGrade #133 #81
OffenseOff #133 #95
DefenseDef #123 #48
Spec TeamsST #120 #91
TalentTal #97 #12
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #12
Ball State Notes
(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report
Auburn Notes
(12/2) DC D. J. Durkin will remain on Golesh staff in '26
(11/30) Hired Alex Golesh (S Florida, former Tenn OC).
(11/20) QB1 Fr Deuce Knight will start vs Mercer, Bama
(11/2) HC Hugh Freeze fired after UK loss
(11/1) Home L to UK w/ 241 total yds. Freeze done
(10/31) Ashton Daniels will start vs UK, Arnold benched
(10/25) WR Coleman & Singleton both hurt vs Ark
(10/24) QB1 battle in week 9, Arnold still the starter. Yikes
(10/23) Auburn on a 3-11 run vs P4 teams since '24
(10/22) K A McPherson bad, longest FG is 34 yards
(10/20) Top OL Center Connor Lew out for season (ACL)
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
Auburn Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #48
SuccessSuc #78 #20
ExplosiveExp #81 #74
PPAPPA #98 #21
PowerPwr #136 #10
SP+SP+ #134 #16
Pts POPPO #65 #25
HavocHav #119 #79
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #130 #11
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #19
Run ExplRExp #117 #44
PPAExp #91 #7
Run BlockR Blk #106 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #6
Stuff RateStuff #8 #20
TackleTak -  #65
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #132 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #34
Pass ExplPExl #73 #104
PPAExp #98 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #108 #46
F7 HavocF7 #99 #81
DB HavocDB #123 #77
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffBALL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #95 #123
SuccessSuc #40 #118
ExplosiveExp #71 #126
PPAPPA #42 #128
PowerPwr #48 #98
SP+SP+ #59 #115
Pts POPPO #110 #133
HavocHav #94 #116
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #46 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #21 #103
Run ExplRExp #89 #110
PPAExp #55 #116
Run BlockR Blk #55 -
OL YdsOLY #23 #90
Stuff RateStuff #60 #77
TackleTak -  #117
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #105 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #121
Pass ExplPExl #39 #119
PPAExp #45 #128
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #21
F7 HavocF7 #67 #103
DB HavocDB #113 #115
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Auburn -43.0 (52.5)
Auburn won vs Ball State this year (42-3)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Ball State last year (42-3)

  
BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly15327256%15601085.7
Ty Robinson2367%770025.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kiael Kelly21160852.956
Qua Ashley (Tr)11854744.672
TJ Horton6018003.013
Eric Weatherly (Tr)1311709.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood19320116.853
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)20244012.247
Eric Weatherly (Tr)2923818.235
Koby Gross (Tr)10141114.142

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Nathan Voorhis49161020
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)441001
Joey Stemler442021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis49161020
DeJuan Echoles276422
Drew Hughes272210
Darin Conley244221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Alfred Chea (Tr)594015
Jahmad Harmon242005

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)13621563%1309626.1
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb17596955.546
Jackson Arnold (Tr)11231182.856
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6328024.426
Deuce Knight13178413.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Coleman57725512.746
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)5853439.248
Malcolm Simmons25457218.391
Perry Thompson1715409.134

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Robert Woodyard Jr.677251
Kaleb Harris502101
Keyron Crawford36105100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Keyron Crawford36105100
Chris Murray (Tr)154410
Keldric Faulk275264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kayin Lee310004
Jay Crawford151004
Keldric Faulk275264