Ball State at Auburn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Auburn TigersAuburn logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -43.0 (52.5) (0)  Open: -43.5 | 55.5
Auburn 42 - Ball State: 3

 
Cardinals (2 - 4) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 32 (7 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
BALL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Auburn -43.5  (SP+ AUB -37)

Projected Score: BALL: 5 - AUB: 48 (53)
AUB Win prob: 100% | Cover: 30%
BALL Travel: 526 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (3 - 3) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (28 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ball State at Purdue+16.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Ball State at Auburn+43.052.5L 3 - 42UY
Sat 9/13 Ball State vs New Hampshire-3.046.5W 34 - 29OY
Sat 9/20 Ball State at UConn+21.053.5L 25 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Ball State vs Ohio+14.052.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Ball State at Western Michigan+9.543.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Ball State vs Akron-1.541.5
Sat 10/25 Ball State at Northern Illinois+15
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Ball State vs Kent State-1.5
Sat 11/15 Ball State vs Eastern Michigan+4
Sat 11/22 Ball State at Toledo+34
Sat 11/29 Ball State at Miami (OH)+16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.547.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+6.551.5L 10 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+4.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri+1.543.5
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas-8
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-19
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-43.5
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+3.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#131 (.03)36% (128)13.736% (127)2.57 (118)13236% (123)1243.61 (97)#128 (.28)46% (114)31.547% (116)45% (103)4 (80)34.810.5
AUB#86 (.16)43% (71)24.748% (39)3.01 (67)16438% (111)1674.7 (25)#31 (.07)36% (17)1728% (1)43% (88)3.24 (29)74.70.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense613.7736.1%3.611142561321243.757%43%36%36%21%.03
AUB Defense61712.735.8%3.240.8 - - - - - 48%52%28%43%17%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense631.536.545.8%40.5 - - - - - 47%52%47%45%16%.28
AUB Offense624.727.743%4.70.3193321641674.551%48%48%38%16%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State628:181432%63%4.334.810.55.52.3024.2
Auburn630:2819.337%54%9.274.70.30.87.33126.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense657% (27)36% (127)35.2131.53.75 (115).06 (100)2.57 (118)58% (126)16% (135)1.08 (30)
AUB Defense648% (51)28% (1) - - - - -.15 (2)1.83 (1)70% (65)13% (22)0.92 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense647% (39)47% (116) - - - - .26 (127)2.93 (84)72% (77)10% (59)1.21 (131)
AUB Offense651% (65)48% (39)36.5164.34.513 (35).24 (22)3.01 (67)89% (7)11% (102)1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense643% (111)36% (123)12.821.31245.89.75 (116)2 (11).05 (127)1.4 (118)33% (101)25% (112).12 (122)5% (48)1.7 (123)
AUB Defense652% (87)43% (88) - - - - - - 2 (114).29 (89)1.6 (83)35% (26)25% (27).21 (41)4% (127)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense652% (98)45% (103) - - - - - - 1 (128).31 (96)1.5 (57)30% (98)33% (103).43 (120)5% (93)2.1 (100)
AUB Offense648% (73)38% (111)1828.5167.25.99.35 (116)0 (1).09 (123)1.2 (134)29% (40)21% (131).09 (128)5% (42)1.8 (113)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.77  #132
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10  #134
Ball State's Defense Rating: 17.67  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.4  #135
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.8  #132
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9  #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -18.77   Auburn: 22.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.4   Auburn: 13.4




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 22.555  #18
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.56  #47
Auburn's Defense Rating: -10.15  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #27
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #62
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.5  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 13.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 31.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 48
Ball State 5


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Auburn 41
Ball State 24

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 30
Ball State 12

Total Points: 42
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 24.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.7
Defense: 17 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.7

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Auburn42Ball State3Auburn -43.0Ball State52.5Under
200909/26Auburn54Ball State30
200509/17Auburn63Ball State3
200109/01Auburn30Ball State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn400 Overs
Ball State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 41 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#132) BALL at (#18) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLAUB
Power RatePwr #132 #18
SP+SP+ #135 #27
Perf GradeGrade #135 #95
OffenseOff #131 #94
DefenseDef #125 #90
Spec TeamsST #125 #131
TalentTal #97 #12
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #12

Ball State Notes
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
(3/26) New HC Uremovich 23-11 @ Butler
(3/26) OC Harmon a HS coach recently, history w/ HC

Auburn Notes
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
(10/12) Freeze 5-14 in SEC games, 2-7 at home
(10/9) 59 car, 119 yds, 23 penalites, 154 yards in past 2
(9/27) OL penalized a lot, AU avgs 8.5 penalties per game
(9/24) WR H Fields out for the season (broken foot)
(9/20) Arnold bad vs OU, Run Off worse. Def fought
(9/18) Starting CB Jay Crawford doubtful for OU
(9/4) RB Damari Alston out week two (shoulder)
(8/29) Arnold much better, run off great, pass D awful
(7/16) WR2 (LY) Simmons arrested on serious charges
(6/6) OL returns 5/5, plus portal adds. PFF top 10 unit
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #90
SuccessSuc #128 #17
ExplosiveExp #85 #107
PPAPPA #131 #31
PowerPwr #134 #6
SP+SP+ #132 #9
Pts POPPO #97 #29
HavocHav #130 #54
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #103 #11
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #1
Run ExplRExp #30 #52
PPAExp #100 #2
Run BlockR Blk #136 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #1
Stuff RateStuff #112 #1
TackleTak -  #88
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
BALL OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #111 #135
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #88
Pass ExplPExl #118 #83
PPAExp #127 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #120 #62
F7 HavocF7 #135 #22
DB HavocDB #48 #127
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffBALL Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #125
SuccessSuc #71 #114
ExplosiveExp #132 #116
PPAPPA #86 #128
PowerPwr #47 #115
SP+SP+ #62 #131
Pts POPPO #25 #80
HavocHav #77 #73
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #44 #130
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #116
Run ExplRExp #54 #131
PPAExp #22 #127
Run BlockR Blk #28 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #84
Stuff RateStuff #32 #72
TackleTak -  #55
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatAUB OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #130 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #103
Pass ExplPExl #134 #57
PPAExp #123 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #67 #33
F7 HavocF7 #102 #59
DB HavocDB #42 #93
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Auburn -43.0 (52.5)
Auburn won vs Ball State this year (42-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Craig Harmon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly7612660%725425.8
Qian Magwood11100%191019.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Qua Ashley (Tr)7033334.872
Kiael Kelly9527322.940
TJ Horton2810903.913
Eric Weatherly (Tr)54909.822
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood11200118.253
Eric Weatherly (Tr)1611807.428
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)10100010.022
Qua Ashley (Tr)157815.227

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alfred Chea (Tr)312002
Ashton Whitner (Tr)273000
Joey Stemler251021
Willizhuan Yates250004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Voorhis248610
DeJuan Echoles125301
Drew Hughes172200
Scott Hudson71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon131004
Willizhuan Yates250004
Alfred Chea (Tr)312002

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)10616564%983506.0
Deuce Knight2540%20004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb7045346.546
Jackson Arnold (Tr)8324763.027
Damari Alston3212814.015
Durell Robinson (Tr)357119.054
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Coleman24305212.746
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)3027929.337
Horatio Fields (Tr)1210618.814
Malcolm Simmons1210208.526

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Robert Woodyard Jr.273230
Keyron Crawford227420
Kaleb Harris191001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford227420
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Keldric Faulk113243
Robert Woodyard Jr.273230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keldric Faulk113243
Xavier Atkins (Tr)377331
Demarcus Riddick111101