Michigan State at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks(#2)

Friday, October 4th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -22.5 (53.0) (-2100) Open: -26.5
Oregon 31 - Michigan State: 10 (Big Ten)

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -31.5 (SP+ ORE -31)
Projected Score: MSU: 11 - ORE: 42 (53)
ORE Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
MSU Travel: 1922 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	34.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	19.4	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
ORE Defense	14	19.4	19.6	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
ORE Offense	14	34.9	35.7	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31 Oregon: 28.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Oregon: 26.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 42
Michigan State 11

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 29
Michigan State 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 31
Michigan State 19

Total Points: 50

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/04	Oregon	31	Michigan State	10	Oregon -22.5	Michigan State	53.0	Under
2018	12/31	Oregon	7	Michigan State	6	Michigan State -1	Oregon	47.0	Under
2015	09/12	Michigan State	31	Oregon	28	Michigan State -5	Oregon	66.0	Under
2014	09/06	Oregon	46	Michigan State	27	Oregon -11	Oregon	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	3	3	0 Overs
Michigan State	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1

(#70) MSU at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	ORE
Power RatePwr	#70	#2
SP+SP+	#90	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#4
OffenseOff	#105	#9
DefenseDef	#104	#4
Spec TeamsST	#122	#26
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#8

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#105	#4
SuccessSuc	#86	#18
ExplosiveExp	#118	#43
PPAPPA	#105	#33
PowerPwr	#101	#19
SP+SP+	#119	#14
Pts POPPO	#116	#59
HavocHav	#98	#9

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#31	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#64
Run ExplRExp	#126	#63
PPAExp	#116	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#117
TackleTak	-	#8

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#50
PPAExp	#79	#12
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#126	#7
F7 HavocF7	#112	#23
DB HavocDB	#63	#5

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#9	#104
SuccessSuc	#5	#69
ExplosiveExp	#107	#110
PPAPPA	#7	#85
PowerPwr	#4	#75
SP+SP+	#2	#49
Pts POPPO	#10	#98
HavocHav	#2	#93

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#25
Run ExplRExp	#108	#80
PPAExp	#17	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#101
PPAExp	#7	#111
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#127
F7 HavocF7	#4	#64
DB HavocDB	#3	#121

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56°

Rematch from Week 6
Oregon -22.5 (53.0)
Oregon won vs Michigan State this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Michigan State last year (31-10)

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5