Michigan State at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Oregon DucksOregon logo
Friday, October 4th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -22.5 (53.0) (-2100)  Open: -26.5
Oregon 31 - Michigan State: 10  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -31.5   (SP+ ORE -31)

Projected Score: MSU: 10 - ORE: 42 (50)
ORE Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
MSU Travel: 1922 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon vs Idaho-36.5
Sat 9/7 Oregon vs Boise State-17.560.5W 37 - 34ON
Sat 9/14 Oregon at Oregon State-16.050.0W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Oregon at UCLA-23.554.5W 34 - 13UN
Fri 10/4 Oregon vs Michigan State-22.553.0W 31 - 10UN
Sat 10/12 Oregon vs Ohio State+3.554.5W 32 - 31OY
Fri 10/18 Oregon at Purdue-30.061.0W 35 - 0UY
Sat 10/26 Oregon vs Illinois-22.554.0W 38 - 9UY
Sat 11/2 Oregon at Michigan-14.545.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/9 Oregon vs Maryland-24.058.0W 39 - 18UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon at Wisconsin-13.549.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Oregon vs Washington-17.550.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Oregon vs Penn State-3.551.5W 45 - 37OY
Wed 1/1 Oregon vs Ohio State+2.555.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#131 (.03)38% (115)19.338% (122)2.84 (114)8938% (99)1972.97 (125)#75 (.19)44% (95)26.145% (85)44% (105)3.89 (76)591.81.3
ORE#2 (.49)57% (1)34.957% (2)3.69 (4)17157% (1)3185.11 (1)#19 (.1)38% (30)19.439% (35)39% (27)3.33 (24)59.10.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1219.317.837.6%2.971.817286891972.945%54%38%38%19%.03
ORE Defense1419.419.638.4%3.331.1 - - - - - 39%59%39%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1226.12843.9%3.891.3 - - - - - 48%51%45%44%16%.19
ORE Offense1434.935.756.9%5.110.5244901713185.944%56%57%57%9%.49

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1228:0516.530%50%6.8591.81.35.62.5027.6
Oregon1428:3124.451%74%6.559.10.51.14.82.4129.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1245% (104)38% (122)30.988.72.97 (131)-.03 (131)2.84 (114)76% (50)12% (119)0.85 (124)
ORE Defense1439% (2)39% (35) - - - - .08 (32)3.08 (60)55% (6)9% (96)0.97 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1248% (48)45% (85) - - - - .16 (83)3.28 (106)87% (128)10% (72)0.93 (35)
ORE Offense1444% (107)57% (2)29.1171.45.932 (10).37 (2)3.69 (4)78% (32)6% (3)1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1254% (33)38% (99)18.531.8197.26.210.714 (106)13 (97).17 (101)1.4 (121)35% (113)26% (107).16 (115)7% (105)2 (97)
ORE Defense1459% (132)39% (27) - - - - - - 11 (53).16 (16)1.5 (45)32% (70)30% (60).33 (78)8% (13)2 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1251% (85)44% (105) - - - - - - 9 (87).28 (78)1.5 (26)29% (116)32% (92).36 (92)6% (66)2 (58)
ORE Offense1456% (22)57% (1)2633.7318.39.412.244 (1)5 (6).59 (3)1.5 (112)24% (3)43% (3).73 (2)3% (4)2 (70)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31   Oregon: 28.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6   Oregon: 26.0




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 42
Michigan State 10


Projected Total Points: 50
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/04Oregon31Michigan State10OregonOregon -22.5Michigan State53.0Under
201812/31Oregon7Michigan State6OregonMichigan State -1Oregon47.0Under
201509/12Michigan State31Oregon28Michigan StateMichigan State -5Oregon66.0Under
201409/06Oregon46Michigan State27OregonOregon -11Oregon0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon330 Overs
Michigan State113 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 02 - 21 - 21 - 0
Road Teams0 - 42 - 20 - 12 - 1

(#70) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
Michigan State     Ratings Matchup     Oregon
Power #70
#2
Off #101
#4
Def #75
#19
Talent #34
#4
SP+ #90
#3
SP+ Off #119
#2
SP+ Def #49
#14

Rematch from Week 6
Oregon -22.5 (53.0)
Oregon won vs Michigan State this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Michigan State last year (31-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | ORE
Depth Chart: MSU | ORE
Rosters: MSU | ORE
(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14
Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.68 PPO
Great Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Oregon Notes
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart


  
Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352
Jaron Glover15192212.834

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Edward Woods494123
Malik Spencer441002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Alex VanSumeren163200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Malik Spencer441002

Oregon's OC Will Stein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)32644773%38573068.6
Dante Moore (Tr)7888%49006.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11854064.628
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)7514972.054
Da'Jaun Riggs118217.524
Jayden Limar257102.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Stewart (Tr)48613512.869
Kenyon Sadiq24308212.839
Justius Lowe2120319.734
Noah Whittington2413625.718

View Oregon's Full Roster
Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher877204
Kobe Savage (Tr)573001
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matayo Uiagalelei3711961
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
Bryce Boettcher877204
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)3810010
Brandon Johnson (Tr)425115
Bryce Boettcher877204