Oregon at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (11:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -23.5 (54.5) (-2100) Open: -24.0
Oregon 34 - UCLA: 13 (Big Ten)

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (34 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE coming off BYE
Our Line: Oregon -23.5 (SP+ ORE -27.5)
Projected Score: ORE: 38 - UCLA: 14 (52)
ORE Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
ORE Travel: 732 miles

Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 25 (16 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORE Players
UCLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

UCLA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UCLA at Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	UCLA vs Indiana	+3.5	46.5	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/21	UCLA at LSU	+21.5	56.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UCLA vs Oregon	+23.5	54.5	L 13 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/5	UCLA at Penn State	+30.0	48.0	L 11 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	UCLA vs Minnesota	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCLA at Rutgers	+4.0	42.5	W 35 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UCLA at Nebraska	+7.5	38.5	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/8	UCLA vs Iowa	+6.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/15	UCLA at Washington	+4.5	47.0	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	UCLA vs USC	+5.0	53.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/30	UCLA vs Fresno State	-7.5	46.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	34.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	19.4	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)	18.4	34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)	25.3	45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)		34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)		45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	34.9	34.4	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33
UCLA Defense	12	25.3	24.3	45.9%	4.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	47%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	19.4	11.4	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11
UCLA Offense	12	18.4	16	39%	3.15	1.4	18	329	87	242	3.1	41%	59%	34%	43%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3
UCLA	12	31:07	18	43%	50%	8.2	68.9	1.4	1.1	5.3	1.8	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)
UCLA Defense	12	43% (2)	45% (83)	-	-	-	-	.05 (30)	2.92 (52)	78% (101)	10% (68)	0.72 (2)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)
UCLA Offense	12	41% (122)	34% (131)	28	86.9	3.1	4 (133)	-.05 (129)	2.47 (132)	70% (87)	10% (85)	0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)
UCLA Defense	12	57% (132)	47% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.26 (82)	1.4 (15)	30% (100)	33% (106)	.31 (70)	8% (8)	2 (53)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)
UCLA Offense	12	59% (12)	43% (56)	21.6	33.2	242.2	7.3	11.2	17 (79)	11 (72)	.26 (62)	1.5 (95)	36% (126)	36% (21)	.42 (30)	7% (99)	1.9 (102)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.40 UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.0 UCLA: -1.3

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.4
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.4

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 38
UCLA 14

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 37
UCLA 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 30
UCLA 16

Total Points: 46

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	UCLA	13	Oregon	34	Oregon -23.5	UCLA	54.5	Under
2022	10/22	Oregon	45	UCLA	30	Oregon -7	Oregon	70.5	Over
2021	10/23	UCLA	31	Oregon	34	UCLA -1	Oregon	62.5	Over
2020	11/21	Oregon	38	UCLA	35	Oregon -18.5	UCLA	62.0	Over
2018	11/03	Oregon	42	UCLA	21	Oregon -10.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2017	10/21	UCLA	31	Oregon	14	UCLA -6.5	UCLA	68.0	Under
2014	10/11	UCLA	30	Oregon	42	Oregon -3	Oregon	0
2013	10/26	Oregon	42	UCLA	14	Oregon -20	Oregon	0
2011	12/02	Oregon	49	UCLA	31
2010	10/21	Oregon	60	UCLA	13
2009	10/10	UCLA	10	Oregon	24
2008	10/11	Oregon	31	UCLA	24
2007	11/24	UCLA	16	Oregon	0
2006	10/14	Oregon	30	UCLA	20
2004	11/13	Oregon	26	UCLA	34
2003	11/15	UCLA	13	Oregon	31
2002	10/12	UCLA	30	Oregon	31
2001	11/10	UCLA	20	Oregon	21
2000	09/22	Oregon	29	UCLA	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCLA	3	3	4 Overs
Oregon	16	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 8	5 - 3	4 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 11	3 - 5	1 - 1	2 - 4

(#2) ORE at (#61) UCLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORE	UCLA
Power RatePwr	#2	#61
SP+SP+	#3	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#110
OffenseOff	#9	#115
DefenseDef	#4	#91
Spec TeamsST	#26	#88
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#31

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

UCLA Notes(12/29) Signed QB Aguilar (Gr, App St)
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def good. Hard L to Minn
UCLA Injury Report

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	UCLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#9	#91
SuccessSuc	#5	#110
ExplosiveExp	#107	#10
PPAPPA	#7	#68
PowerPwr	#4	#94
SP+SP+	#2	#44
Pts POPPO	#10	#123
HavocHav	#2	#37

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#11	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#83
Run ExplRExp	#108	#2
PPAExp	#17	#30
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#53
TackleTak	-	#53

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#15
PPAExp	#7	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#117
F7 HavocF7	#4	#68
DB HavocDB	#3	#8

UCLA on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#115	#4
SuccessSuc	#112	#18
ExplosiveExp	#43	#43
PPAPPA	#99	#33
PowerPwr	#103	#19
SP+SP+	#103	#14
Pts POPPO	#123	#59
HavocHav	#96	#9

UCLA Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#132	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#64
Run ExplRExp	#84	#63
PPAExp	#129	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#117
TackleTak	-	#8

UCLA Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#50
PPAExp	#62	#12
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#7
F7 HavocF7	#85	#23
DB HavocDB	#99	#5

Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Oregon 23.5 (54.5)
Oregon won at UCLA this year (34-13)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat UCLA last year (34-13)
Oregon beat UCLA in 2022 (45-30)

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Garbers	235	363	65%	2727	16	11	7.5
Justyn Martin	24	35	69%	179	1	0	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden	124	505	2	4.1	40
Keegan Jones	47	179	1	3.8	22
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18
Ethan Garbers	83	137	1	1.7	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Moliki Matavao	41	506	2	12.3	35
TJ Harden	40	368	1	9.2	53
Logan Loya	29	348	4	12.0	29
Kwazi Gilmer	31	345	2	11.1	48

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Devin Aupiu	15	5	2	1	1
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10
Kaylin Moore (Tr)	37	2	0	1	9
Bryan Addison (Tr)	43	1	0	0	5