Oregon at Oregon State - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#4)Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -16 (50.0) (-1200) Open: -20.5
Oregon 49 - Oregon State: 14

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (34 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Oregon -34 (SP+ ORE -32.5)
Projected Score: ORE: 41 - ORST: 7 (48)
ORE Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
ORE Travel: 36 miles

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORE Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	34.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	19.4	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	34.9	34.4	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33
ORST Defense	12	29.9	30.1	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	19.4	11.4	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11
ORST Offense	12	24.3	29.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.40 Oregon State: -8.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.0 Oregon State: -6.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.4
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.4

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 41
Oregon State 7

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 20
Oregon 16

Total Points: 36

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 32
Oregon State 21

Total Points: 53

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Oregon	41	Oregon State	7	Oregon -33.5	Oregon	58.5	Under
2024	09/14	Oregon State	14	Oregon	49	Oregon -16	Oregon	50.0	Over
2023	11/24	Oregon	31	Oregon State	7	Oregon -14	Oregon	61.5	Under
2022	11/26	Oregon State	38	Oregon	34	Oregon State -1	Oregon State	57.0	Over
2021	11/27	Oregon	38	Oregon State	29	Oregon -7.5	Oregon	61.5	Over
2020	11/27	Oregon State	41	Oregon	38	Oregon -13	Oregon State	64.5	Over
2019	11/30	Oregon	24	Oregon State	10	Oregon -20.5	Oregon State	65.5	Under
2018	11/23	Oregon State	15	Oregon	55	Oregon -18	Oregon	71.0	Under
2017	11/25	Oregon	69	Oregon State	10	Oregon -25.5	Oregon	63.0	Over
2016	11/26	Oregon State	34	Oregon	24	Oregon -3	Oregon State	69.0	Under
2015	11/27	Oregon	52	Oregon State	42	Oregon -30	Oregon State	71.5	Over
2014	11/29	Oregon State	19	Oregon	47	Oregon -17.5	Oregon	0
2013	11/29	Oregon	36	Oregon State	35	Oregon -21	Oregon State	0
2012	11/24	Oregon State	24	Oregon	48
2011	11/26	Oregon	49	Oregon State	21
2010	12/04	Oregon State	20	Oregon	37
2009	12/03	Oregon	37	Oregon State	33
2008	11/29	Oregon State	38	Oregon	65
2007	12/01	Oregon	31	Oregon State	38
2006	11/24	Oregon State	30	Oregon	28
2005	11/19	Oregon	56	Oregon State	14
2004	11/20	Oregon State	50	Oregon	21
2003	11/22	Oregon	34	Oregon State	20
2001	12/01	Oregon	17	Oregon State	14
2000	11/17	Oregon State	23	Oregon	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	7	6	6 Overs
Oregon	18	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	18 - 7	7 - 6	5 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 18	6 - 7	3 - 2	3 - 5

(#2) ORE at (#113) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORE	ORST
Power RatePwr	#2	#113
SP+SP+	#3	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#98
OffenseOff	#9	#55
DefenseDef	#4	#131
Spec TeamsST	#26	#28
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#74

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
Perf GradePerf	#9	#131
SuccessSuc	#5	#125
ExplosiveExp	#107	#31
PPAPPA	#7	#117
PowerPwr	#4	#129
SP+SP+	#2	#107
Pts POPPO	#10	#117
HavocHav	#2	#115

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#11	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#126
Run ExplRExp	#108	#55
PPAExp	#17	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#108
TackleTak	-	#84

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#41
PPAExp	#7	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#101
F7 HavocF7	#4	#122
DB HavocDB	#3	#75

Oregon State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#55	#4
SuccessSuc	#59	#18
ExplosiveExp	#124	#43
PPAPPA	#87	#33
PowerPwr	#79	#19
SP+SP+	#73	#14
Pts POPPO	#75	#59
HavocHav	#56	#9

Oregon State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#50	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#64
Run ExplRExp	#65	#63
PPAExp	#25	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#117
TackleTak	-	#8

Oregon State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#50
PPAExp	#125	#12
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#7
F7 HavocF7	#50	#23
DB HavocDB	#84	#5

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 73° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Oregon 16.0 (50.0)
Oregon won at Oregon State this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)
Oregon State beat Oregon in 2022 (38-34)

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Ben Gulbranson	78	128	61%	943	4	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Zakaih Saez	24	3	1	2	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Andre Jordan	27	2	4
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4