Oregon at Oregon State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -16 (50.0) (-1200) Open: -20.5
Oregon 49 - Oregon State: 14

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (34 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Oregon -34 (SP+ ORE -32.5)
Projected Score: ORE: 43 - ORST: 9 (54)
ORE Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
ORE Travel: 36 miles

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORE Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	34.9	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	19.4	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	24.3	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	29.9	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	34.9	34.4	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49
ORST Defense	13	29.9	30.1	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	19.4	11.4	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1
ORST Offense	13	24.3	29.7	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.40 Oregon State: -8.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.0 Oregon State: -6.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 519
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.4
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.4

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 43
Oregon State 9

Projected Total Points: 54

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Oregon State	14	Oregon	49	Oregon	Oregon -16	Oregon	50.0	Over
2023	11/24	Oregon	31	Oregon State	7	Oregon	Oregon -14	Oregon	61.5	Under
2022	11/26	Oregon State	38	Oregon	34	Oregon State	Oregon State -1	Oregon State	57.0	Over
2021	11/27	Oregon	38	Oregon State	29	Oregon	Oregon -7.5	Oregon	61.5	Over
2020	11/27	Oregon State	41	Oregon	38	Oregon State	Oregon -13	Oregon State	64.5	Over
2019	11/30	Oregon	24	Oregon State	10	Oregon	Oregon -20.5	Oregon State	65.5	Under
2018	11/23	Oregon State	15	Oregon	55	Oregon	Oregon -18	Oregon	71.0	Under
2017	11/25	Oregon	69	Oregon State	10	Oregon	Oregon -25.5	Oregon	63.0	Over
2016	11/26	Oregon State	34	Oregon	24	Oregon State	Oregon -3	Oregon State	69.0	Under
2015	11/27	Oregon	52	Oregon State	42	Oregon	Oregon -30	Oregon State	71.5	Over
2014	11/29	Oregon State	19	Oregon	47	Oregon	Oregon -17.5	Oregon	0
2013	11/29	Oregon	36	Oregon State	35	Oregon	Oregon -21	Oregon State	0
2012	11/24	Oregon State	24	Oregon	48	Oregon
2011	11/26	Oregon	49	Oregon State	21	Oregon
2010	12/04	Oregon State	20	Oregon	37	Oregon
2009	12/03	Oregon	37	Oregon State	33	Oregon
2008	11/29	Oregon State	38	Oregon	65	Oregon
2007	12/01	Oregon	31	Oregon State	38	Oregon State
2006	11/24	Oregon State	30	Oregon	28	Oregon State
2005	11/19	Oregon	56	Oregon State	14	Oregon
2004	11/20	Oregon State	50	Oregon	21	Oregon State
2003	11/22	Oregon	34	Oregon State	20	Oregon
2001	12/01	Oregon	17	Oregon State	14	Oregon
2000	11/17	Oregon State	23	Oregon	13	Oregon State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	7	6	6 Overs
Oregon	17	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 7	6 - 6	4 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 17	6 - 6	3 - 2	3 - 4

(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14
Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.68 PPO
Great Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon Notes
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart

Oregon Ratings Matchup Oregon State

Power #2

#113

Off #4

#79

Def #19

#129

Talent #4

#83

SP+ #3

#97

SP+ Off #2

#73

SP+ Def #14

#107

Rematch from Week 3
Oregon 16.0 (50.0)
Oregon won at Oregon State this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)
Oregon State beat Oregon in 2022 (38-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 73° - Wind: 7 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ORE | ORST
Depth Chart: ORE | ORST
Rosters: ORE | ORST

(#113) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107
Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.35 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon State Notes
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good

Oregon's OC Will Stein

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24
Jayden Limar	25	71	0	2.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Kenyon Sadiq	24	308	2	12.8	39
Justius Lowe	21	203	1	9.7	34
Noah Whittington	24	136	2	5.7	18

View Oregon's Full Roster

Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Brandon Johnson (Tr)	42	5	1	1	5
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4

Oregon State's OC Ryan Gunderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Gabarri Johnson (Tr)	15	29	52%	174	0	1	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Keith Heyward

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2
Oluwaseyi Omotosho	14	1	1	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4
Andre Jordan	27	2	4