Oregon at Purdue - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 18th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -30 (61.0) (-5000) Open: -29.5
Oregon 35 - Purdue: 0 (Big Ten)

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (34 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PUR is playing their 6th straight game
ORE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -40.5 (SP+ ORE -42)
Projected Score: ORE: 49 - PUR: 8 (57)
ORE Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
ORE Travel: 1851 miles, 3 hrs behind

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORE Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	34.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	19.4	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	15.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	39.9	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	34.9	34.4	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33
PUR Defense	12	39.9	34	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	19.4	11.4	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11
PUR Offense	12	15.8	16	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.40 Purdue: -14.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.0 Purdue: -16.2

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -14.71 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.4
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.4

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 49
Purdue 8

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 37
Purdue 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 36
Purdue 16

Total Points: 52

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/18	Purdue	0	Oregon	35	Oregon -30	Oregon	61.0	Under
2009	09/12	Oregon	38	Purdue	36
2008	09/13	Purdue	26	Oregon	32

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	0	0	0 Overs
Oregon	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#2) ORE at (#120) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORE	PUR
Power RatePwr	#2	#120
SP+SP+	#3	#121
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#123
OffenseOff	#9	#91
DefenseDef	#4	#132
Spec TeamsST	#26	#66
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#35

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Purdue Notes(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#9	#132
SuccessSuc	#5	#129
ExplosiveExp	#107	#112
PPAPPA	#7	#134
PowerPwr	#4	#134
SP+SP+	#2	#110
Pts POPPO	#10	#134
HavocHav	#2	#125

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#11	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#120
Run ExplRExp	#108	#124
PPAExp	#17	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#106
TackleTak	-	#111

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#88
PPAExp	#7	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#97
F7 HavocF7	#4	#109
DB HavocDB	#3	#125

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#4
SuccessSuc	#96	#18
ExplosiveExp	#117	#43
PPAPPA	#112	#33
PowerPwr	#94	#19
SP+SP+	#116	#14
Pts POPPO	#115	#59
HavocHav	#131	#9

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#84	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#64
Run ExplRExp	#130	#63
PPAExp	#108	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#117
TackleTak	-	#8

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#50
PPAExp	#103	#12
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#99	#7
F7 HavocF7	#128	#23
DB HavocDB	#118	#5

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 52°

Rematch from Week 8
Oregon 30.0 (61.0)
Oregon won at Purdue this year (35-0)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Purdue last year (35-0)

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5

PUR's OC (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4